SHORT TERM: gap down opening decline, DOW -255
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2720 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2732 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX rebounded to unchanged at 2732. Then it traded to SPX 2718 by 10:30. After that a rally to a higher high at SPX 2738 by noon. Then the market headed lower for the rest of the day. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2707, then bounced to close at 2716.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.
The market gapped down today to start the holiday shortened week. The gap was immediately closed within the first half hour. Then after a lower low the market actually turned positive on the day. Afternoon trading, however, was all to the down side. See no problem with the pullback right here. The market had rallied 221 SPX points in one week without a quantified reversal. Now we have one: [2533]-2754-2707 so far. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and the 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
SPX 2728 is THE key number today …………..especially at the close
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Lately the 20 DMA has been more indicative but yes.. lets see if the 50 can hold it down or not. Also, I think it will stay around 2728 the rest of the day till the FED Minutes come out.
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why phil?
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at least 3 reasons i see……….. can you find some ?
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nothing to do with DH method by the way
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50 sma
top of the downward sloping trend channel
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2731 pivot
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Hello
While we honour 2731 once again, thanks Tony, I cannot help but underlining that above there are 2 Gann levels: 2740 (quarterly) and 2756 (yearly).
If interested, the full reference for SP and Dow is available here:
http://cicliegann.finanza.com/2018/02/13/analisi-dow-jones-industrial-febbraio-2018/
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ps: I have no idea why 2728 might be so relevant 🙂
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Actually 2039 is a more important number. That line is the line that rejected the rally last Friday…. as long as we don’t get past it its bearish.
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chart please
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Cant post but its the line of 20DMA, draw it on the daily SPX and you will see the line rejected the rally.
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ok…. when you said line i thought you meant trendline
yes that is one of my reasons
but i use 18 dsma instead of 20
little difference
still a couple more reasons
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of course I meant 2739.
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ES Morning Update February 21st 2018 – http://reddragonleo.com/2018/02/21/es-morning-update-february-21st-2018/
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Good morning all.
I continue to believe that both Intermediate wave iv and minor wave 1 of intermediate wave completed. Tony C. and abc123 analysis. If this analysis is accurate, I expect the 61.8% LONG @ /ES 2703, to break today. Probably fill the gap first (dotted red line) and then trend lower as the day progresses. I like abc123 count and thus expect the pullback to continue to the 50% pullback area and Tony C’s pivot of SPX 2656 for a minor wave 2 bottom.
1 caveat…38.1% pullbacks have been very common over the last few weeks so, I will watch this level to possibly add to my “long investment account” as I don’t want to miss minor wave 3. I will rely on DH to fine tune my entry. BTW, if the 61.8% long on abc123 (chart) analysis, then I would have to consider that, SPX is still trading in Intermediate wave iv….IMHO a low probability at this time.
Chart….http://eminiaddict.com/emini77/2018-02-21_05-54-29.png
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sorry should have added..minor wave 1 of intermediate wave v. Also, should have added if the 61.8% LONG on abc123 chart, breaks, the probability is high, that SPX is still in Intermediate wave iv and I would expect SPX will retest the lows at SPX 2533 and possibly trade lower….
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If the market behaves the way it has for the last week or so, it will marginally take out the 61.8 mark on the 15 minute chart at 2725.50, then head down to 98
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Is anyone else as clueless as I am as to what this market does next?
Furthermore, this market is nuts…while it was not part of my plan, I sold 20 puts and 10 calls yesterday morning because my gut said unload. Good thing too because the value of BOTH fell of the charts during the course of the day! OPEX was over and yet, the options market is behaving very badly. Should have made good profit over the weekend on the puts…profit was pitiful. Calls were worth more than I expected but they lost half their value by the end of the day. Granted, I should be thankful I got out when I did, but none of this is making any sense to me. Options are behaving like the $VIX anticipating a change in direction…absurd.
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Some of us know where we are. For example, I picked up the IWM puts yesterday at their stone cold low of the day. Today, expect the dollar to go to short term support with stocks, gold and crude rallying. After today watch the bottom fall out of the market as the dollar rallies strongly.
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not the bottom yesterday but posted within minutes.Only scalping according to my system,and sold at 27 already.
https://imgur.com/a/j3fKv
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BITCOIN: bear market resumes?
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Cr. to CBZ
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Thank you, Tony.
“Gold could get a boost as the U.S. government launches a series of auctions for $258B worth of debt this week; “if there is less than the required appetite for that mountain of debt, that could weaken the dollar and support gold,” says Ole Storer, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. “That leads me to believe that any correction in gold will continue to be a buying opportunity at this stage.””
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People are endlessly worried about where to hide any real gold they buy, and now we find that his name is “Ole Storer” ? 🙂
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Kv see my response to your queston on the Weekend Update.
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https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=51d45b2f-2db2-4943-8c33-cc7d21c5d3f9&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James
Thanks Tony….and everyone xx
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Beethoven wrote this for his dying wife with all the grief and fury in which he was enwrapped. It was written as a String Quartet, which many prefer for its purity of feeling, but here it is transcribed for orchestra and diligently conducted by Bernstein.
You will recognize a part of the music as used in “Band of Brothers.”……x
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Thank you! I love his quartets, so this is interesting. Still prefer austere and contemplative quality of quartets’ sound.. like Végh Quartet.
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Yes Blue I agree…a quartet portrays intimacy that is somewhat lost in full orchestral arrangement. I shall play your quartet tonight when I post Raymond James. x
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Thanks Chris Kimble
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I would personally like to invite anyone interested in Tony’s course to contact him
OEW tutoring contact information at top right of page, or talk with me….we love him.
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for better or worse I took out some shorts today. did not want to hold over a three day weekend and it ended up being for the better. lot of bearish charts. expecting some part of this decline to occur overnight. didn’t see that in this past correction. don’t know when it will be, but my gut says very soon. fwiw I also bought some calls today that are much longer dated. I still believe we are in a bull market.
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