Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +165

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower, then higher overnight and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported lower. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2711, then rallied to 2723 in the opening minutes. Then after a quick pullback to SPX 2709 by 10am, the market rallied to 2731 by noon. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher. After that the market started to pullback again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2698, then bounced to close at 2704.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rose 95 cents, Gold jumped $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open as this volatile February continues. While the first two weeks of the month were on the sell side, and last week was on the buy side. This week has been somewhere in between: buy the dips – sell the rips. The market opened higher today, rallied into the afternoon, then headed south. The same pattern every day this week. Thus far from the recent SPX 2533 low: 2754-2707-2748-2698. If the current low does not hold, (+div), there is some Fibonacci support at 2670 (.38.2%), 2656 (pivot) and 2644 (.50.0%). Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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209 Responses to Thursday update

  1. jobjas says:

    SPX next target 3050


  2. fionamargaret says:
    Thanks Colin Twiggs
    Thanks Tom McClellan

    Thanks and love to Tony…..and thanks to everyone xx


    • blubrd67 says:

      Fiona, do you find these Végh meditative and addictive? 😉
      You know who else has a bit of that old charm? Hungarian Quartet.

      I just wish I can find these on LP’s as they are in most cases superior to glary CD’s.


      • fionamargaret says:

        Absolutely Blue…just shut your eyes and let the music into your mind until there is nothing else but the notes forming their own pattern
        I found another really interesting quartet, which I shall play…and I shall listen to your suggestion.

        There are a few good music shops…one in London where they usually can find a good stringed instrument, and also recordings…I shall try and find the name for you. They do not advertise.
        This is somewhat similar to someone wanting a good dog or horse…basically word of mouth and time….but ultimately so rewarding….x


  3. Bud Fox says:

    while I am, a Caldaro EW fan. The update by Daneric,
    has me stunned, and confused short term.


  4. mcgcapital says:

    Feel like I’m in the minority here but everything is still under resistance.. 2750s SPX, 12550 Dax and 7300 FTSE. Follow through on Monday above those levels and I’m out of shorts and will take my Feb profits and run for a while. Price is still choppy apart from that last hour on Wall Street. Have to favour the bears unless bulls can get price above those areas and hold it there


    • fenster6 says:

      You have to admit that sure felt like a 3rd wave today/
      Tony seems to have nailed the short term count Glad I wasn’t short.


      • NEWBIE says:

        Or a wave 2 or a b wave.


      • travis01 says:

        While I’m a huge supporter of TC pivots, no where does he say the market was turning up short turn. He says “if” support doesn’t hold we “could”. It’s up to us to confirm direction and place our bets. He says what he thinks are supports and pivots and sometimes divergence. Not sure if that’s what you meant but there wasn’t any tea leaves in message above.


    • quickrick38 says:

      mcg, you’re certainly not alone. While I must admit (in hind sight) I regret not going all in at the 2530 bottom. I couldn’t imagine the bounce going this high. There are just so many potential paths, the least of which isn’t the rogue wave aspect of the all time high. The market has clearly favored the ultra bulls – up ’till now. Most likely the bulls will carry this forward until everyone is convinced that there will be no turn down…and then pull the rug. Knowing when is incredibly difficult in this market. And, no matter how sharp the short term moves…this does not feel like an impulsive move up. It feels corrective. Alas, I’ve been wrong before. Good luck.


    • have to agree…….felt like nothing but short covering …..value was still built on the lower end all day….as of yet value has not changed……we will see if shorts have lost control soon enough…….not convince yet


  5. stockop says:

    too early once again. /es may have just broken a bull flag…ym and nq already did. let my bias get the best of me. absolutely ridiculous targets with those… is it really that easy? there were so many unsophisticated investors buying OTM march calls in January. can they really all make money?? are there that many bears to lose that much money??


  6. aahmichael says:

    For those who care about such things, SPX had its best day on a Friday in 2 years (3/11/16), but did so on the lightest NYSE volume of 2018.


  7. learnedmylesson25 says:

    The only major note of interest today,besides the moving average breakout,was HYG stopped below ITS resistance at 86.50.So,no confirmation from that yet.Won’t take much though,to make that happen Monday.No sure thing,but wouldn’t bet against it.
    BitCon had been down around 1000 cow chips overnight,but by 9am was up again.HYG joined in and it was risk on(GDX even joined in).Quite a day.Good luck all.


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