Swarm today at 5pm, and last week’s results

Participation was light in the Swarm again last week, and but the results remain above average:

Scoring Weekly scoring out of 6 Directional response* (12 points possible)
Swarm 4 8
Average individual score 2.73 5.73

If you have not previously participated and would like to, please follow the instructions in the second paragraph of this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

Please fill out this survey any time before entering the swarm on Tuesday at 5pm. Unanimous AI is offering a $25 Amazon Gift card to the most correct participant each week: https://www.research.net/r/VXKNSFN.

Use this private link to enter the SPX UNU on Tuesday: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382.

Thank you for participating.

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +216

Overnight the first round of the France elections completed. Asian markets gained 1.0%. European markets opened higher and gained 3.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2374 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2349 on Friday. By 10am the SPX hit 2375, then pulled back to 2369 by 11:30. After that the market worked its way higher, hitting SPX 2377 just past 3pm, then dipping to close at 2374.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.20%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slid 40 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9am, then new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, immediately altering the short-term downtrend symmetry noted in the weekend update. With Europe having a big up day, in anticipation of Macron victory on May 7th, markets around the world rallied. With the SPX/DOW confirming downtrends, and the NDX/NAZ not, the current short term activity could move either way. The NDX/NAZ uptrend could continue to extend, forcing the SPX/DOW into an uptrend. Or Europe could reverse taking other indices down with it. Key levels to watch in the SPX are at 2378 and the 2385 pivot range on the upside, and 2345 on the downside. Whichever gives way first the market will likely continue in that direction. Short term support is at SPX 2345 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the day with a slight negative divergence. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 85 Comments

weekend update

REVIEW

The market started this gap filled week at SPX 2329. A gap up opening Monday took the SPX to 2349. Then after a gap down opening on Tuesday the market found support at SPX 2335. A gap up opening on Wednesday took the SPX to 2353, which was sold off into 2335 again. On Thursday another gap up opening took the market to SPX 2361. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2349 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.75%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, the WLEI, the NAHB, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, leading indicators and existing home sales. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q1 GDP, the Chicago PMI, durable goods and housing. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

This week let’s look at the big picture. The very big picture. While published data on the US stock market only began in the year 1885, we have been able to piece together, using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles, how the US market would have looked from the early 1700’s. As an emerging growth economy the US would have not looked anything like the European markets that do have stock market data going back that far. That data was not considered.

From around the year 1700 to 1929 the US experienced a 200+ year grand super cycle bull market GSC 1. The 1929-1932 crash, when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value, ended GSC 2. While short in time the crash made up for it in price damage. A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low.

Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately: SC1 1700-1770, SC2 1770-1776, SC3 1776-1850, SC4 1850-1857, and SC5 1857-1929. Within the current GSC 3 there have been two completed super cycles, with the third underway: SC1 1932-2007, SC2 2007-2009, SC3 2009-xxxx. Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years, this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.

Within each super cycle bull market there are five Cycle waves. SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows: C1 1932-1937, C2 1937-1942, C3 1942-1973, C4 1973-1974 and C5 1974-2007. Notice the Cycle wave bull markets can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years. Also note, no matter the wave degree the bear markets are always much shorter in time than the bull markets. Currently the US stock market is in Cycle wave 1, from the 2009 low, of SC1. Which brings us up to the present.

Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. During this C1 bull market: P1 2009-2015, P2 2015-2016, and P3 currently underway. Thus far, from the 2016 low, we have Int. waves i and ii Apr-Jun 2016, Minor waves 1 and 2 Aug-Nov 2016, and Minor 3 completed in March, with Minor 4 underway now. When Minor 4 concludes Minor 5 should take the market to new highs to complete Int. iii. Then after an Int. iv correction, Int. v would only complete Major wave 1 of Primary III. As you can observe, Primary III should last quite a while as Major waves 1-2-3-4-5 unfold. For now we looking for a Major wave 1 high in one-three years around SPX 3000+.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

The Minor wave 3 uptrend travelled from SPX 2084-2401 during Nov-Mar. The uptrend was the longest and strongest of the three impulsive uptrends in this bull market. After the March high the market entered a Minor 4 correction. Thus far it has lasted nearly two months and has only corrected 3.3%. Quite a small correction even for this bull market. With the two previous corrections declining 5.6% and 5.0% this one probably has more downside to go.

We have been labeling this downtrend from SPX 2401 as three Minute waves: 2322-2379-2329 so far. With Minute C underway we have anticipated downtrend support in the SPX 2290’s, and the OEW 2286 to 2270 pivot ranges. We are also waiting for the NDX/NAZ to confirm downtrends. They have dipped but continue to remain near their highs. A selloff in this sector should be all that is required to put in a downtrend low across the board. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The market has been quite choppy, with a downward bias, since the SPX topped at 2401 in early March. After the Minor wave 4 downtrend was confirmed a week ago, the short term pattern within the downtrend was upgraded. Within this Minute a-b-c pattern we have noticed this week some symmetry.

Minute ‘a’ divided into three waves: 2355-2390-2322. Minute ‘b’ was also three waves reaching a 2379 high. Minute ‘c’ now looks like three waves as well: 2329-2361-underway. When we examine the three wave decline of ‘a’ in points: 46-35-68. The three wave decline of ‘c’ in points is thus far: 49-32-xx. Notice the smaller a and b, of Minute waves ‘a’ and ‘c’ are quite similar. Also similar is the time element in days: 6-4-8 and 6-4-x. Should the market continue to maintain this symmetry, the SPX should bottom in the 2290’s around May 2nd. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week below neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower for a net 0.8% loss.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.7%.

The DJ World index gained 0.6%, as did the NYSE.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 6.7%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.1%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: Case-Shiller, new home sales and consumer confidence. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, durable goods and pending home sales. Friday: Q1 GDP (est. 1.0%), the Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 322 Comments

Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open pullback, DOW -31

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher then lower overnight, and the market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2356 close. After ticking up to unchanged in the opening minutes the market headed lower. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher: 5.71m v 5.48m. Just past 1pm the SPX hit 2345, then rallied to 2353 by 2:30. After that it pulled back to end the week at SPX 2349.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 56.5% v 57.0%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was reported unchanged for the week at 0.5%.

The string of 4 straight gap openings was broken today, even though it was option expiration Friday. The market opened slightly lower and pulled back for most of the day. It is possible yesterday’s SPX 2361 high is one of significance. More on this in the weekend update. In the meantime, the NDX/NAZ continue to trade near all time highs, nothing significant on the downside yet. Still awaiting this sector to roll over before anticipating a downtrend low. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 28 Comments

Thursday update

SHORT TERM: 4th gap opening in a row, DOW +174

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6% (mostly France). After the close yesterday FED vice chair Fischer gave another speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170419a.htm. Overnight the SPX futures were higher. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 240k v 234k, and the Philly FED was reported lower: 24.0 v 32.8. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2346, then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2338 yesterday. At 10am the SPX hit 2341, and leading indicators were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.6%. The market then started to rally. With two small pullbacks along the way the SPX hit 2361 around 2pm. Then pulled back to close at SPX 2356.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am and it’s options expiration.

Today the market had a gap opening for the 4th day in a row. The last time this happened was in mid-September, during a complex correction, when the market had five gap openings in a row. The last gap opening then put in the SPX 2180 B wave high, and the correction resumed after that. No change in the short term count: Minute A 2322, Minute B 2379, Minute C underway. And no change on the expected downtrend support levels. What did change today was all the participation in the blog and forum. Which has been fairly quiet for some time. Apparently today’s rally was unexpected. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum moved from oversold to quite overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 125 Comments

Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -119

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2352 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2342 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX pulled back to 2347, then made a slightly higher high at 2353 by 10am. After that it started to pullback. At 2pm the FED: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beige-book-default.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2335, then bounced to close at 2338.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude dropped $1.90, Gold slid $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then leading indicators at 10am.

The market had another gap opening today, for the third day in a row. Monday’s gap up was bought, Tuesday gap down was bought, but today’s gap up was sold. Rebound from SPX 2329 over? While three of the four major indices have enjoyed a rebound this week, the DOW has already dropped below last week’s low and its March low (SPX 2322 equivalent). Earnings disappointments in GS and IBM have contributed to the decline. The choppy activity, which has been with us since early March continues, as Minute wave C unfolds. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought early then declined throughout the day and ended oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 143 Comments

Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -114

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight. Yesterday, after the close, there was a FED speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170417a.htm. At 8:30 this morning housing starts were reported lower: 1215k v 1288k, and building permits were reported higher: 1260k v 1213k. Then at 9:15 industrial production was reported higher: 0.5% v 0.0%, and capacity utilization was reported higher: 76.1% v 75.9%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2339, then reversed. The market had closed at SPX 2349 yesterday. By 10am the SPX had rallied back to 2348, but then headed even lower. Around noon the SPX hit 2335. Then after a rally to SPX 2345 by 2:30 the market closed at 2342.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market reversed yesterday’s gap up opening with a gap down opening today. The market is acting like a correction. The gap down opening was bought, the market nearly closed the gap, then headed even lower. Lots of volatility in just the first two days of the week. As noted over the weekend, and yesterday, we are expecting this Minute C wave to break the recent SPX 2329 low, the 2322 low, and possibly find support around SPX 2299. Also, still waiting for some downside action in the Tech sector before this correction concludes. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum dropped below neutral this morning but moved just above neutral in the afternoon. Swarm at 5pm. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 116 Comments