Weekend Report

The Weekend Update

posted on March 16, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

Report

The SPX, NAS, and NDX all reversed last week’s losses of 2% and rallied to new recovery highs.  The Dow lagged and only recovered approximately 62% of last week’s losses.  The SPX gapped up to 2748 at Monday’s open and rallied to 2798 on Tuesday.  After a short-lived pullback to 2788 into the close on Tuesday, price continued higher to 2821 on Wednesday.  A late day sell off on Wednesday was followed by more weakness to 2803 on Thursday morning.  Price remained in a range for the rest of Thursday and then gapped up again on Friday and rallied to the week’s high of 2831 and closed at 2822.

For the often volatile Options Expiration week, the SPX gained 2.9%, the NAS/NDX gained 3.9%, while the Dow gained 1.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in retail sales, NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI, PPI, construction spending, industrial production, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and JOLTs job openings.  On the downtick:  core CPI and core PPI, durable goods, new home sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, and capacity utilization.

Next week’s report will highlight NAHB Housing Market Index, factory orders, the FOMC rate decision, the Philadelphia Fed Index, Leading Indicators, and existing home sales.

The ECRI WLI continues to improve and rose this week from -3.7 to -2.9.

1ECRI

LONG TERM: Uptrend

We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months.  All of the foreign indices we track were positive for the week.  The Indian Nifty 50 up 3.6%, the German DAX up 1.8%, the French CAC 40 up 3.3%, the Brazilian BVSP up 3.8%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 up 3.6%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC) up 2.7%, the Hang Seng Stock Exchange up 2.8%, and the South Korean KOSPI up 1.9%.

spxweekly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend, possible near-term weakness

We count a five wave impulsive rally from the Major 2 low at SPX 2347.  Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817.  We tentatively labeled the 2817 high as Minor 1 on last weekend’s report, thus we were expecting a correction for Minor 2.  Indeed, the SPX/Dow broke support levels and fell 3+% in a three wave move during the correction.   From the 2722 low, SPX has risen to 2831 while the Dow has not reached new recovery highs.  This divergence among the indexes tells us to be conservative in our market view and consider that a complex Minor 2 correction may still be underway.  This conservative market view is shown on the Dow chart below and will remain our primary count awaiting further price action.

INDUdaily

We continue to track the more near-term bullish count, shown on the daily SPX chart below, with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722.  This count suggests Minor 3 is currently underway.  See additional comments in the short-term section regarding these wave counts.

SPXdaily

SHORT TERM

From the Minor 1 high at 2817 we saw a three wave decline to the SPX 2722 low (2768>2796>2722).  We expected that low to be the minute a wave which would be followed by a minute b retracement rally and another decline in minute c to end Minor 2.  Instead the SPX has rallied in one wave from 2722 to the week’s high at 2831.

The SPX rally could be part of an irregular b wave with a wave c decline to follow.  If this view is correct, the Dow price should fall below last week’s low.  The SPX and Dow will likely realign during this correction.  If the Dow rallies to new highs before declining below last week’s lows, this count will be eliminated.  Also, if the SPX rises over 2876, this count will be dropped.

The strength in the SPX and NAS/NDX indices also suggest near-term bullish wave counts.  These include 1) Minor 2 is complete at SPX 2722 with Minor 3 underway which will likely subdivide as well (shown above on the SPX daily chart), and 2) The impulsive rally from SPX 2347 continues with an additional extension of the Minute v wave into Micro waves (shown below on the 60 minute chart).  Clearly, we will need to see the Dow rally to new highs for these bullish counts.

SPXhourly

We will track all of these most probable wave counts.  From time to time, the market action causes uncertainty as to the next move.  Patience is required during these times to allow the markets to remove that uncertainty.

Short term support is at the 2798, 2780, and 2731 pivots and resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots.  The SPX continues to display a negative divergence on the 60 minute chart.  The RSI 5 on the daily chart does not show a divergence although it is now overbought.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were up 2-3%.

European markets were up 1.5-3.0%.

The DJ World index gained 2.7%, and the NYSE gained 2.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but lost 1.2%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.5%.

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.5%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 3.7%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 1.0%.

Best wishes to all

Posted in Updates | 637 Comments

Weekend Updates

The Weekend Update

posted on March 09, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

Report

The SPX gapped up on Monday to start the week at 2815 and immediately hit the high for the week at 2817.  The market then began to sell off and hit 2768 by lunch before climbing higher into 2793.  Tuesday was a more stable day, trading down to 2783 in the morning session then a gradual climb up to 2796 by close.  Then on Wednesday the selloff continued as price moved down to 2770 and on Thursday selling saw Mondays low taken out, 2742 was hit early on, bounced back up to 2761 by lunch, back down to 2739 in the afternoon and a bounce into 2750 at close.  Friday gapped down and hit 2722 early in the session, bounced up to 2736, returned to test 2723 before finishing the week at 2743

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NAS/NDX lost 2.0%.

On the economic front, we saw uptick for ISM Services, New Home Sales, and Jobless Claims.  On the downtick the Nonfarm had a big miss, 20k against the forecast of 181k

Next week’s report will be highlighted by durable goods, CPI/PPI and retail sales

The ECRI WLI was up this week from -4.2 to -3.7

1ECRI

 

LONG TERM: uptrend strong probability

We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months.  The Nifty (India) advanced this week while most other markets were in sell mode.  The Dax (German) and other European indices were lower along with the BVSP (Brazil), Nikkei (Japan) and Kospi (Korea)

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Since what we believe is the Major 2 low, we count a possible 5 waves up complete.  Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817.  We have been producing a Weekend Report for the OEW group and mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Minute v looked to be subdividing and that did indeed happen.  We label this subdivision as Micro 1 at 2762, Micro 2 at 2731, Micro 3 at 2813, Micro 4 at 2775 and Micro 5 at 2817.  The action possibly wrapped up Minor 1 on Monday and we believe Minor 2 has been underway since.  Several of criteria we were looking at to help confirm have now been met, like a break of Micro 4 at 2775 and largest pullback of the UT from 2347.  This data suggests that Minor 2 is underway and likely to confirm a DT in the coming weeks.

SPXdaily

 

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

The action this week saw Minor 1 tentatively complete at the previously mentioned 2815 area of resistance which had capped both Int B and Minor B of Int A.

On the squiggle chart this week we have three waves down, 2817>2768>2796>2722 so far.  When this completes it will likely be Minute A, we expect to see a Minute B rally before another decline for Minute C to complete Minor 2.

Short term support is at SPX 2731 and the 2656 pivots with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.  There is currently positive divergence on the 60 minute chart with the daily chart now oversold.

 

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were down on the week and some lost as much as 2.5%.

European markets were down as well and lost 1.5%.

The DJ World index lost 2%, and the NYSE lost 2.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 1.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.

Gold is in a downtrend but ended flat%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 1.9%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

 

Best wishes to all

Thanks goes to the OEW Group for pulling this together.

We love you Dad.

 

Posted in Updates | 737 Comments

Rules & Update

Some Rules

I will quote my father on a few of these as well as add my own and clarification if need be.

Some will have noticed posts are being deleted and edited.

“Comments should be about the various markets, and not politics, religion, etc.”  If it can directly impact the market it will be allowed. However personal opinions about people are not. Keep it civil and professional.

“Those that are trolls, self-promoters, or attack others are not welcome.”  Trolls Useless posts will be deleted and user will be banned.  Self promoters. Moderators are looking at every link posted. If it’s linked to a promotional website it will be edited or deleted. There are no ads of any kind of this website. If you would like for this website to promote you or your business contact me for going rates. Attacks will be deleted. If user has a history of attacking all posts by them will be put on an approval basis.

” If your comment gets deleted you did not follow the rules. If none of your comments are being posted, you have not only broken the rules but lost your privilege to post.”

“We encourage and respect all well-reasoned alternative viewpoints, and expect all participants will do so as well. Please keep in mind this is a market blog, and not a social media blog. Posts take time to read. Do not waste everyone’s time with frivolous comments. “

Do not ignore or disrespect these rules.

Updates

Weekend Report

Happy News! Sometime this weekend the first OEW Weekend Update Report from the private group will be posted! The group is still fine tuning things so please be patient.

Those Requesting Lessons

A follow-up email will be sent out this weekend with more concrete details on how we will be going forward. If you have sent me an email or a message to my father’s email you will be getting follow up email this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone and be kind!

 

Posted in Updates | 8 Comments

Opened

I’ve opened the comments back up for those of you who’ve been asking.

I’ve been compiling a list of those of you who are interested in my father’s private teachings. If you are interested and have yet to contact me you can JohnsonOEW@gmail.com. Lessons will resume in the next month or two in a slightly different format but, still his original updated teachings.

 

Love only yourself, or Love yourself and all others.

It’s a choice. Make the choice!

 

Posted in Updates | 341 Comments

Some Updates

I want to thank you all for your kind words they meant a lot to my family and everyone who loved my father. I honestly am in the same boat as a lot of you in really not believing he is gone even though I’ve been going through the motions.

This weekend I’m going through this blog, group, and emails.

I ask you kindly to please refrain from the political temperamental conversations. The political climate does indeed affect the markets. However, it does not need to become personal here. Keep it to the facts and civil. Respect my father’s wishes or leave. I won’t ask again. All of his rules still stand including the self promoters.

The OEW lessons my father created will continue to go on. To everyone that was looking to learn his method please contact me privately and I’ll get in touch to tell you what we are doing going forward.

 

Posted in Updates | 270 Comments

Anthony’s Passing

My father Anthony Caldaro passed away Monday February 11th. He loved this blog and all of you. This was his passion and his life. Thank you for all of your support over the years. His lessons and his teachings will go on. To his students who are in the middle of lessons I will contact you privately within the next couple of days. I will keep the blog up and running for everyone to use as well as the forums. I will post again soon to let everyone know how we will be continuing his teachings.

Thank you everyone for your support.

Posted in Updates | 337 Comments

Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2707. After a dip to SPX 2699 on Monday the market rallied to an uptrend high of SPX 2725. On Tuesday a quiet open led to another uptrend high at SPX 2739. After that the market started to pullback. After dipping to SPX 2724 on Wednesday, it declined to 2687 on Thursday, and 2682 on Friday. Then the market rallied to SPX 2708 in the afternoon. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. On the economic front the sparse reports were mostly negative. On the downtick: factory orders, ISM services, and consumer credit. On the uptick: both the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next weeks reports will be highlighted by the CPI/PPI, industrial production and retail sales. The ECRI continues to rebound after hit a low of -6.5% about a month ago.

LONG TERM: uptrend 80% probability

We have been tracking and commenting about the foreign markets for the past several months. This week most made new uptrend highs before getting caught up in the US pullback. The Nifty (India) joined BVSP (Brazil) in its third wave up from their 2018 low. They are obviously slightly ahead of the rest of the financial world having bottomed early.

In the US the long term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 should be underway now.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We have also been tracking five criteria to determine if this uptrend is a B wave rally, with a retest of the December low to follow. Or, the December low ended the bear market and this uptrend is the first of a new bull market. The five criteria we have been tracking: length of rally, wave structure SPX/DOW, wave structure NDX/NAZ, the percentage gain of the advance, and the NYSE percentage level of stocks above their 200 dma. Over the past few weeks 4 of the 5 have turned positive. The reason we have a long-term 80% uptrend (bull market) probability.

We are still waiting on the SPX/DOW to quantify five waves up from the December low. We now have four waves and a possible fifth wave rally underway from Friday’s low. Should the market continue to rally, and make new uptrend highs, that would seal the deal. If the SPX instead drops below 2520 before making new uptrend highs, the uptrend would be considered a three wave zigzag, and a retest of the lows would eventually follow.

SHORT TERM

For the past few weeks we have been posting what we have called a squiggle chart. It displays all the quantified smaller waves of this uptrend. It ran into a little turbulence on Friday, and in its place we post a simplified hourly chart of the SPX. This represents our quantified short term count. A rally above SPX 2708 would be a positive.

With the three day decline into the end of the week SPX 2739 now looks like it ended Minute iii right in the OEW 2731 pivot range. We had reported on that pivot being a potential short term top on Wednesday. The Thursday/Friday decline has quantified as a Minute wave iv. Now all the market has to do is get back to SPX 2739 and we have a quantified impulse wave. We noted the importance of SPX 2520 in the previous section.

Short term support is at SPX 2682 and the 2656 pivot, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum formed a positive divergence at today’s low then ended the day nearly overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week and gained 0.2%.

European markets were mixed as well but lost 0.8%.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend as well but lost 4.6%.

Gold is also in an uptrend but lost 0.3%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD may be back in an uptrend and gained 1.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: the CPI and budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, retail sales, the PPI, and business inventories. Friday: industrial production, export/import prices, the NY FED, and business inventories.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Added the DJ Utilities to the Charts, and moved the VIX to the last page.

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 671 Comments