Friday update

SHORT TERM: marginal new all time high, DOW -24

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q2 GDP was reported lower than expected, but higher than Q1: +1.2% v +1.1%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 2170 close, then pulled back to 2163 by 10am. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 55.8 v 56.8, then at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 90.0 v 93.5. Just after 10am the market started to rally. Just past noon the SPX hit a new high at 2177, then began to pullback. The pullback lasted the rest of the day as the SPX hit 2171 by 3pm, then bounced to 2174 to end the week.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots.

The market opened lower today, remaining in the 2156-2176 two week range. After hitting a low at SPX 2163 the market rallied and exceeded the range by just one point. After hitting the OEW pivot at 2177, the market pulled back for the rest of the day. With today’s slightly higher high Minor 4 appears to have concluded at SPX 2059. Minor 5 is currently underway. We calculated some Fibonacci targets for Minor 5, and will present them in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: trading range continues, DOW -16

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 266K v 253K. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2167 close then began to pullback. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2160, then rallied to 2168 by 10am, before revisiting 2160 by 11am. After that the market started to drift higher. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2173, then dipped to close at 2170.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ rose 0.35%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold slid $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Today the Q2 GDP est. was lowered to 1.8% v 2.3%. Tomorrow the BOJ announces their stimulus package, Q2 GDP will be reported at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today then pulled back to remain in the 20 point range for the eleventh trading day in a row. Thus far the entire sequence appears to look like a double three, taking the form of a Minor wave 4 flat. Apparently this market has been waiting for some sort of catalyst to clear the range. Maybe the BOJ or Q2 GDP will be it. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum has been bouncing between overbought and oversold all week with no net progress. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 112 Comments

Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: typical bi-polar FOMC day, DOW -2

Overnight the Asian market gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods were reported lower: -4.0% v -2.2%. The market opened right at the high of the day SPX 2175, then began to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: 0.2% v -3.7%. The pullback continued throughout the day until right after the FED released its statement at 2pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160727a.htm. After putting in a quick SPX 2159 low print the market started to rally. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2172, thn pulled back to close at 2167.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude slid 90 cents, Gold gained $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Today the Q2 GDP est. was lower to 2.3% v 2.4%. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

US index futures were higher overnight aided by the rally in AAPL. This apparently carried over into overseas markets. along with talk of another BOJ QE program. The SPX opened higher and then immediately sold off. Meanwhile all the foreign markets closed higher. After drifting down until the FOMC statement the SPX hit last Tuesday’s low at 2159, and then started to rally. Today marks the tenth day the SPX has remained in a 20 point, (1%), trading range. The 2177 pivot has been tough one to crack. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum vacillated above and below neutral the entire day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 114 Comments

Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -19

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +5.2% v +5.4%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2168 close, rose to 2174 in the opening minutes, then started to pullback. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 97.3 v 98.0, and New home sales were reported higher: 592K v 551K. The pullback continued to just past 11am when the SPX hit Thursday’s low at SPX 2160. The SPX then rallied to 2169 around noon, pulled back to 2162 just past 2pm, and ended the day at 2169.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods at 8:30, Pending home sales at 10am, then the FED’s FOMC statement at 2pm.

The market opened slightly higher today, rallied to within two points of the all time high, then pulled back to Thursday’s SPX 2160 low. A complex Minor wave 4 flat, following Wednesday’s Minor 3 SPX 2176 high? At the low the market set up a positive short term divergence, rallied to SPX 2169 and ended the day. The market is having a hard time finding a catalyst to break through the 2177 pivot. In fact, for the past nine trading days the market has traded within a 20 point, (1%), range. Certainly enough time to work off the overbought condition after a 100 point rally. FOMC tomorrow, Q2 GDP and BOJ on Friday, might be enough to get this uptrend moving again. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 81 Comments

Monday update

SHORT TERM: pullback resumes, DOW -78

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were about unchanged overnight. The market opened one point below Friday’s SPX 2175 close, and continued lower. The market declined, with only two point bounces, to SPX 2162 by 12:30. Then it tried to rally. The choppy rally continued throughout the afternoon as the market rallied back to SPX 2168 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds slipped 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.10, Gold slid $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then Consumer confidence and New home sales at 10am.

The market opened lower to start the week. After coming within one point of matching the all time high at SPX 2176 on Friday, the market declined today to within two points of Thursday’s SPX 2160 low. The choppy activity that started last Thursday, 2160-2175-2162, still looks like a Minor wave pullback within Int. wave three. Unless the market breaks much lower it looks like that is the best possibility at this time. Short term support remains at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold and rebounded to neutral during the day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 73 Comments

weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2162. The market had a small bounce on Monday, then pulled back to SPX 2159 on Tuesday. Wednesday the market opened higher and rallied to SPX 2176, a new all time high. Thursday the market pulled back to SPX 2160, then rallied on Friday to end the week at 2175. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.55%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the downtick: the NAHB and the Philly FED. On the uptick: building permits, housing starts, existing home sales, the FHFA, leading indicators and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP.

LONG TERM: uptrend

Since we are dealing with possibilities/probabilities at this juncture in the equity market. We would like to add one more count, other than the Primary 5 and Major B counts already presented. This count suggests that Cycle wave [1] not only did not end at SPX 2135 in May 2015, but will not end for many more years to come. A little background.

26. DOWyearly

After the Grand Super cycle low in the year 1932, the market entered Super cycle 1 of a new GSC. SC 1 consisted of five Cycle waves (in years): 1937-1942-1973-1974-2007. Notice Cycle 1 was only 5 years, and Cycles 3 and 5 were over 30 years each. After the SC 2 low in March 2009 the market started Cycle wave 1 of SC 3. We naturally expected it to be short, in years, as noted in the last weekend update. After completing five waves up into 2015 the market entered a bear market. But the bear market only corrected 15%, and now the SPX is making new highs again. In the past 115 years this has only occurred four times. And each of these times the market was in an extended Cycle wave, not a short one. Which suggests this Cycle wave [1] is extending.

SPXweekly

We also noted last week, the recent 2015/2016 activity has not occurred since 1953. After the 1949-1953 bull market during Cycle 3, the bear market that followed was less damaging, in percentage terms, than a correction within that bull market. Historically this has only occurred that once. Then after the bear market was confirmed in 1953, the market turned on a dime and rallied to new highs within five months. The same exact thing just occurred in this market. This also suggests Cycle wave 1 is extending.

DOWweekly

As a result we have added a third count and placed in on the DOW charts. This count suggests only Primary I ended in 2015, Primary II just completed in 2016, and Primary III, (all part of Cycle wave 1) is currently underway. In order for this count to gain in probability the SPX must again exceed 2335, the 1.618 times relationship to Primary A (2135-1810). Overall whether one is counting this advance as an ongoing next leg up Primary 5 or a new bull market Primary 3, really does not matter at this point. Both counts suggest five large waves up before a significant top is formed in the years ahead.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After the February low at SPX 1810 the market rallied in five waves to SPX 2111. Depending upon the long term count this could be labeled with an A or a 1. After that the market had a short downtrend to SPX 2026, a short uptrend to SPX 2121, then the Brexit downtrend to SPX 1992. Again depending upon the count this total action could be labeled either an irregular B or an irregular 2.

SPXdaily

For the past four weeks the market has been uptrending. The SPX/DOW have already made new all time highs, while the NDX/NAZ/NYSE have yet to do so. Both the NYSE Primary V count, and the SPX Primary B count, suggest the NYSE will have to make new highs as well. The NYSE currently needs to rally about 4% to accomplish that. A 4% rally in the SPX is about 2250+, where we have targeted this uptrend to end. Then it gets interesting. We will get into those details as it unfolds. Medium term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the downtrend low at SPX 1992, about four weeks ago, the market has been advancing impulsively. The first several waves higher are quite clear. Intermediate waves i and ii at SPX 2109 and 2074 respectively, and small Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 2109 and 2089. Then it becomes a bit unclear in the SPX 2169-2177 area.

SPXhourly

The SPX suggests Minor waves 3, 4 and 5, ending Intermediate iii at 2176, with Int. iv underway. The DOW suggests only Minor 3 ended at 2176, with only Minor 4 underway. Since Minor 2 was a 20 point decline, and Int. ii a 35 point decline, the recent 16 point decline (2176-2160) currently suggests it is only Minor 4. Especially if the market makes new highs without dropping below SPX 2160. If it does drop lower, into the lower SPX 2150’s, then the Int. wave iv count makes sense. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2085 pivots,, with resistance a the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded from quite oversold on Thursday to end the week overbought.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.4%.

European markets were all higher and gained 0.8%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed but gained 0.4%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be downtrending and lost 0.1%.

Crude is in a downtrend and lost 4.5%.

Gold is still in an uptrend but lost 1.1%.

The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 0.9%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: consumer confidence, Case-Shiller, and new home sales. Wednesday: durable goods, pending home sales, and the FOMC meeting ends. Thursday: weekly jobless claims. Friday: Q2 GDP (est. +2.4%), Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 171 Comments

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Posted in Updates