weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2316. After a gap up opening on Monday the market traded to SPX 2351 by Wednesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 2339 on Thursday, the market rallied to end the week at SPX 2351. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.85%. Economic reports for the week were mostly higher. On the downtick: capacity utilization, industrial production, the WLEI, the Q1 GDP estimate, the NAHB, plus weekly claims rose. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, retail sales, business inventories, housing starts, building permits and leading indicators. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, consumer sentiment and more housing reports. Best to your 3-day weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

Our long term count remains unchanged. A Primary wave III bull market began at the February, 2016 low of SPX 1810, and it celebrated its one-year anniversary this week. From that low we have labeled Intermediate waves i and ii at SPX 2111 and SPX 1992 respectively. Then labeled Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 2194 and SPX 2084 respectively. Since that last low it appears Minor wave 3, of Intermediate iii, has been underway.

spxweekly

Last weekend we noted. If the OEW 2321 and 2336 pivots offered resistance, like the multi-week resistance offered by the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivots, this three-month uptrend could top in this range. And the OEW 2336 pivot was the last possible level for any probable long term top. On Monday the market cleared the OEW 2321 pivot, and the OEW 2336 pivot was cleared on Wednesday. They offered hardly any resistance at all. In fact, after the OEW 2336 pivot was cleared it acted as support on two short term pullbacks. All potential long term bearish counts have been eliminated.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 3 uptrend began three months ago, just before the election. Off that Minor 2 SPX 2084 low, we counted 5 waves up to SPX 2278. Then after a pullback to SPX 2234 we labeled those levels with Minute waves i and ii. Since SPX 2234 the market has been rising in Minute wave iii.

spxdaily

When this uptrend began in early-November from SPX 2084, we estimated it would rise about 300-points into the SPX 2380’s. This week it entered the SPX 2350’s. We can count 5 waves up for Minute iii, but the first 4 waves are overlapping. This suggests Minute iii is subdividing further than 5 waves, possibly 9 waves. The DOW has a cleaner count, suggesting it is in the third wave of Minute iii. We’ll continue to compare these two indices, while this uptrend continues to unfold, as we have since this bull market began. Medium term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As noted above we see five waves completed, with the first four waves overlapping, during Minute wave iii: 2282-2257-2301-2267-2351. This suggests Minute iii is subdividing into at least 9 waves. With the daily/weekly RSI quite overbought the sixth wave, a pullback of about 30 points, can occur at any time. But this should only be a pause in this extending uptrend.

spxhourly

Since third waves are usually at least equal to first waves, this would give us a general upside target in the SPX 2420’s just for Minute wave iii. And this uptrend may not even end there, as there are still Minute waves iv and v to follow. For now, we’ll just take it one pivot at a time and monitor the short term waves. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week with a negative divergence. In strong uptrends it is usually best to first wait for at least a 5-point reversal at a negative divergence. Best to your trading come Tuesday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher and gained a net of 0.8% on the week.

European markets were also all higher and gained 0.8% as well.

The DJ World index gained 1.0%, and the NYSE index gained 1.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are back in a downtrend and lost 0.1% on the week.

Crude is trying to establish an uptrend but lost 0.2%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.3%.

The USD is still in a downtrend but gained 0.1%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: holiday. Wednesday: existing home sales and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and the FHFA housing index. Friday: consumer sentiment and new home sales. Enjoy the extended weekend!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback then new high close, DOW +4

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2340. The SPX had close at 2347 yesterday. Right after the open the market tried to rally. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher: 0.6% v 0.5%. The SPX bounced to 2344 by 10:30, retested 2340 by 11:30, and then tried to rally again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2351 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. This week the Q1 GDP estimated was lowered: 2.4% v 2.7%. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 61.1% v 61.7%.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time in about 3 weeks. The gap down took the SPX to 2340, one point above yesterday’s low. Then after a small bounce the SPX retested 2340. After that it rallied for the rest of this options expiration Friday. Not much has changed from yesterday’s report. SPX 2332 continues to be a key short term level. A break below, and a retest of the 2321 pivot is likely. A breakout above SPX 2351, and a rally to the 2385 pivot is likely. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum remained around neutral for most of the day, then ended overbought. Best to your 3-day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: flat open – then pullback, DOW +8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported higher: 1246K v 1226K, building permits were reported higher: 1285K v 1210K, weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 239K v 234K, and the Philly FED was reported at a 30-year high: 43.3 v 23.6. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2349, bounced up to the 2351 high, and then started to pullback. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2339, then bounced to 2347 by 1pm. A pullback to SPX 2341 followed by 2:30, then a bounce ended the day at 2347.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds rallied 15 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Tomorrow: leading indicators at 10am and it’s options expiration friday.

The market opened flat today, bounced, and then pulled back 12 points. The pullback was enough to reset the short term RSI, but the daily/weekly remain quite elevated. From the late-January SPX 2267 low the market has rallied in 9 small waves to the SPX 2351 high. During the rally the pullbacks have ranged between 10 and 17 points. The current pullback is well within that range. If it extends lower, and drops below SPX 2332, then a retest of the OEW 2321 pivot range is possible. Short term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to neutral during today’s pullback, and was rising at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then new highs, DOW +107

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were flat to lower overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: 0.6% v 0.3%, the NY FED was reported higher 18.7 v 6.5, and retail sales were reported higher: 0.4% v 0.6%. Then at 9:15 industrial production was reported lower: -0.3% v 0.8%, as was capacity utilization: 75.3% v 75.5%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2338 close, then immediately started to work its way higher. At 10am business inventories were reported higher: 0.4% v 0.7%, and the NAHB was reported lower: 65 v 67. The market then rallied to SPX 2345 just before 11am, dipped to 2339 by 11:30, then moved even higher. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2351, then dipped to end the day at 2349.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slid 15 cents, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Tomorrow: housing starts, building permits, weekly jobless claims and the Philly FED all at 8:30.

The market opened slightly lower again today, but immediately reversed and started making new highs. Just past 11am the SPX cleared the 2336 pivot, pulled back, and then headed higher. The market has now risen from late-January and SPX 2267 to SPX 2351, with the largest pullback only 17 points. This 3-month uptrend, which started at SPX 2084 in early-November, is now nearing our initial SPX 2380’s target posted in early November. Market breadth is making new highs, daily/weekly MACD’s are moving higher, but the hourly/daily/weekly RSI’s are getting a bit frothy. Would not be surprised to see a 20+ point pullback soon. Then higher highs. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum is extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then new highs, DOW +92

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were flat to lower overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: 0.6% v 0.3%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2328 close, ticked up to 2328, then declined to 2322 just before 11am. At 10am FED chair Yellen’s testimony was released: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20170214a.htm. The market then started to rally. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2336.88, nearly clearing the 2336 Primary B wave limit. Then after a pullback to SPX 2333 by 3pm, the SPX closed at 2338.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rose 10 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Tomorrow: the CPI, NY FED, and retail sales at 8:30; then industrial production at 9:15; then business inventories and the NAHB at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, declined to SPX 2322, and then resumed the rally. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2336.88, nearly clearing the 2336 Primary B wave limit. The DOW had already cleared its B wave limit, and now the SPX has done the same at the close. The last potential bearish count can now be discarded. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a potential negative divergence at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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quick update: Swarm A. I.

Today at 5pm eastern time we are having our second financial asset market Swarm in our ongoing scientific study. For those that participated in last week’s first swarm – please join us again. The room size has been doubled to accommodate everyone. If you did not participate and would like to, please follow the instructions in the second paragraph of this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

Please fill out this survey at any time today before entering the swarm: https://www.research.net/r/BS52R25

Also this week we are using a private link to enter the SPX UNU: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382

The Swarm study will start promptly at 5pm. Thank you for participating!

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +143

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2323, and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2316 on Friday. With 2-point pullbacks along the way the market rose to SPX 2332 by 1:30. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2328.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then FED chair Yellen’s congressional economic testimony at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, jumping over the OEW 2321 pivot. It then cleared that pivot and rallied to within 4 points of the 2336 pivot. Considering Monday’s have been generally down days for the past five weeks, rallying right up to the 2336 pivot was an impressive beginning to the week. This rally, from Wednesday’s SPX 2285 low, looks quite impulsive. Should the market clear the 2336 this week, then the next pivot is not until 2385. Short term support is now at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum remained quite overbought all day, and ended overbought. Best to your trading!

UNU SWARM: tomorrow Tuesday at 5PM eastern, please be prompt. For those interested in joining, that did not participate last week, please follow the instructions posted in this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/. thank you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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