Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening again, DOW -106

Last night FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150303a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 212k v 213k. The SPX gapped down at the open to 2099 and continued lower. The market had closed at SPX 2108 yesterday. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 56.9 v 56.7. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2088, was quite oversold, and started to rally. By 12:30 the SPX had reached 2101 before starting to pullback again. At 2pm the FED’s Beige book was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook20150304.htm. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2094 and then tried to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2100 then dipped to close at 2099.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rallied $1.25, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets before the open, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, Factory orders at 10am, then Stress test results after the close.

The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. Soon after the open the market dropped below yesterday’s SPX 2098 low and entered the 2085 pivot range at 2088. After that the market tried to rally for the rest of the day, hitting a high of SPX 2101, then closing at 2099. The pullback from the recent failed 5th Minor 3 SPX 2118 high reached 30 points today. This is the exact same length as Minor wave 2 (2072-2042).

Should the market continue higher from today’s low, crossing SPX 2109 would help confirm, Minor wave 4 could be done with Minor 5 underway. If the pullback continues lower, especially dropping below SPX 2072, then the entire rally (1981-2120) could have been just Minor wave 1 of this uptrend, and this is a Minor 2 pullback. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2020 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. The ECB meets tomorrow, then monthly Payrolls on Friday. Always interesting. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 41 Comments

Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -85

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2111. The SPX had closed at 2117 yesterday. The market continued to decline until the SPX hit 2098 around 12:30. Then it started to rally. The rally lasted most of the afternoon as the SPX made it back to 2109 by 2:30, then dipped to close at 2108.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained 75 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, ISM services at 10am, then the FED’s Beige book at 2pm.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first gap opening in well over a week. As the market continued to decline throughout the morning it wiped out all of yesterday’s gains, last week’s trading range, and hit SPX 2098. As a result it appears Minute v may have failed at yesterday’s SPX 2118 high, completing Minor 3, and Minor 4 is underway now. There are, however, two other potential counts which were noted in the weekend report. For now, we will remain with the one posted on the SPX hourly chart, which suggests Minor 4 support around the 2085 pivot range. Short term support is at SPX 2098 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold today before bouncing to neutral. Best to your trading tomorrow’s ADP and Beige book!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 143 Comments

Monday update

SHORT TERM: Monday rebound, DOW +156

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were mixed overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was report higher: +0.3% v +0.3%, Personal spending lower: -0.2% v -0.3%, and PCE prices higher: +0.1% v +0.0%. The market opened one point above Friday’s SPX 2105 close, dipped to 2105, then started to rally. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported lower: 52.8 v 53.5, and Construction spending was reported lower: -1.1% v +0.4%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2114. Then after a pullback to SPX 2109 by 12:30 the market rallied to 2118 just before a 2117 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW rose 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 0.90%. Bonds lost 22 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Auto sales, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8:15pm.

The market opened higher today, dipped to unchanged, then rallied, except for one small pullback, for the rest of the day. Just before the close the SPX came within two points of its 2120 all time high, as the NAZ closed over 5000 for the first time in 15 years. The count posted over the weekend continues to look good. Today’s rally suggests Minute v, of Minor 3, is underway. All we need now is a SPX 2120 print to confirm. After that we would expect this rally to top between SPX 2120 and 2139, as noted in the weekend update. Then we should see a Minor 4 pullback before Minor 5 kicks in for new all time highs. Short term support is at SPX 2104 and the 2080 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 121 Comments

OEW tutoring

Objective Elliott Wave, (OEW), is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. Once you learn OEW you will be able to quantitatively research the historical price performance of any asset class, or stock, and determine its current position within its overall long term trend. Quantified waves never change. Then using shorter term charts, you will be able to determine good entry and exit price areas in the asset you are tracking.

This is not a course, this is private tutoring: one on one. You may take as long as you like to fully grasp the material and concepts at hand. It is not complicated. Actually you will be amazed, after some period of time and dedicated study, how easily you will be able to discern the waves as they unfold. OEW quantitatively identifies all the medium and long term waves that create bull and bear markets. Every one! We have been applying this technique, successfully, for over thirty years.

The lessons also include OEW analysis of long term investor sentiment, the PCE, the Unemployment rate, and the Baltic Dry index. Housing, leading/lagging indicators, what works and what does not. Currencies: tracking the long term currency cycle in OEW terms. How the Saeculum applies to the markets, and Investing/Trading Psychology. This year we added an historical evaluation of the FED, how QE impacts the SPX, plus historical comparisons of the SPX/DOW/NAZ. This is our most complete lesson plan yet.

Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, then identified the Dec. 1987 low. The July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, and the Oct. 2002 low. The Oct. 2007 top (in early Jan08), and the Mar. 2009 bear market low nearly to the day.

In Real Estate: OEW confirmed the bear market in 2006, and the new bull market starting in 2011. In Bonds: OEW confirmed the bull market in 2007, turned long term bearish, and recently bullish again. In the Currency markets: OEW projected a strong rally in the USD in early 2008 after a three year decline. Then a resumption of its choppy bear market in 2009/10. We then turned bearish on most foreign currencies in mid-2011, and long term bullish on the USD. In early 2009, OEW projected a resumption of the ongoing 13 year bull market in some Commodities: including Gold and Silver. Then turned long term bearish in 2012. OEW can be used to track any asset class, including individual stocks, providing there is sufficient historical data.

Bull and bear markets can last for years. Medium term uptrends and downtrends only last for a few months, and are often mistaken for changes in long term trends. OEW analysis not only confirms when changes in long term trends are occurring, but also allows one to track a bull or bear market as it unfolds. If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at caldaro@msn.com for the details. Best to your trading/investing.

The possession of knowledge, unless accompanied by the manifestation and expression in sharing is a vain and foolish thing. The Law of Use is universal, and he who violates it suffers by reason of his conflict with natural forces.”

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

weekend update

REVIEW

The week started off at SPX 2110. Then after dipping to SPX 2103 Monday morning the market rallied to new highs at 2120 by Wednesday. After that it spent the next two days within that range. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.1%, the NDX/NAZ were mixed, and the DJ World index was +0.3%. On the economic front negative reports continued to outpace positive ones. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, durable goods, the FHFA, consumer sentiment, and pending homes sales. On the downtick: existing home sales, consumer confidence, the CPI, the Chicago PMI, Q2 GDP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week’s reports are highlighted by monthly Payrolls, the FED’s beige book and the PCE.

LONG TERM: bull market

The five primary wave Cycle [1] bull market from March 2009 continues. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. During the entire 130 year recorded history of the US stock market there has only been five bull markets that have lasted five calendar years or more: 1921-1929, 1932-1937, 1987-2000, 2002-2007 and 2009-2015 so far. Of these five, three have been the last three bull markets and the current one is the third longest in history. During each of these five bull markets each of the three rising waves unfolded in 1, 2, 3, 5 or 8 years. These are all Fibonacci numbers. The longest one for example had rising waves of 3, 8 and 2 years. As a result of this analysis, and the new highs posted this year, we are expecting Primary III to top around Q1/Q2 of 2016. When applying several mathematical relations we arrived, as posted last week, with a target of SPX 2530-2630 for Primary III. Then after a steep Primary IV correction we are expecting the bull market to top in 2017, completing an eight year long term uptrend. Fundamentally, the ECBs EQE, scheduled to start in March, supports this scenario.

SPXweekly

We have labeled Primary III with Major waves 1 and 2 in late 2011, then Major waves 3 and 4 in late-2014 and early-2015. The current uptrend, which started in early -February, should be the beginning of Major wave 5. Since we are not expecting Major wave 5 to complete until next year, we are labeling this uptrend as Intermediate wave i. After it concludes we still should have at least four more trends, Intermediate waves ii thru v, before Major wave 5 completes. Since this uptrend is only one month old, and has not reached an overbought condition on the weekly RSI, we are expecting it continue higher.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After a somewhat complex Major wave 4, Major wave 5 began on the first trading day of February. From the downtrend low of SPX 1981 the market has risen about 7% during this month. Currently we see five waves up from that low, with each rising wave shorter than the previous wave: 2072-2042-2102-2085-2120. This is a bit unusual for a potential completed wave pattern, since the third wave is usually the longest. However, it is acceptable since the fifth wave is the shortest wave.

SPXdaily

The easiest way to count this pattern is either: 1. a completed uptrend, or 2. a completed wave 1 of the uptrend. In both of these cases the SPX would have to drop below 2085 to consider either of these two counts valid. Since we are expecting the uptrend to continue higher, #2 would then be the best option. Another way to count this pattern would be a series of subdividing waves. More on this below. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.

SHORT TERM

If we were to consider this uptrend currently in a series of subdividing waves, then the easiest count would be a 1-2, i-ii, 1-2. But this seems a bit stretched since this uptrend has already risen about 140 points from its low. The count we do prefer is the one posted on the chart below. This suggests Minor waves 1 and 2 completed at SPX 2072 and 2042. Then Minor wave 3 has subdivided into four Minute waves thus far: 2102-2085-2120-2104. With this count, and the somewhat lethargic market action lately, we would expect Minor 3 to top around the OEW 2131 pivot. This count also offers several interesting wave/price relationships.

SPXhourly

With Minute i 60 points, (2042-2102), and Minute iii only 35 points, (2085-2120), the maximum Minute v could reach is also 35 points, (2104-2139). Wave five can not be longer than wave three, when wave three is shorter than wave one. Should it exceed SPX 2139 then the triple subdivision noted above would be in play. Should it end around the 2131 pivot then another wave/price relationship comes into play. Minor wave 1 rose 91 points (1981-2072). In order for Minor 3 to equal, or better, Minor 1 it has to reach at least SPX 2133, (2042-2033 or 91 points). Should it reach SPX 2133 or better, then Minor 5 can be any length. If not, Minor 5 will be limited to the length of Minor 3 or less. Should it be less this uptrend will not make it to the OEW 2198 pivot. If more, then the 2198 pivot an even higher is obtainable before any sizeable correction.

While this all may seem quite complicated we will try to summarize with some defined levels. If the SPX drops below 2085 we will have five waves up from the 1981 low, suggesting either the uptrend completed, or more likely, only the first wave up of the uptrend completed. If/when the SPX rises above 2120 then Minor wave 3 continues. The rest we will deal with on a day to day basis as this market unfolds. Short term support is at SPX 2104 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week oversold.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.8%.

The European markets were all higher for a net gain of 2.3%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net gain of 0.1%.

The DJ World index continues to uptrend and gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are downtrending but gained 0.8% on the week.

Crude is uptrending but lost 2.0% on the week.

Gold is downtrending and lost 0.8% on the week.

USD continues to uptrend and gained 1.0% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, then ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am. Tuesday: Auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP, ISM services and the FED’s Beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Factory orders. Friday: nonfarm Payrolls, the Trade deficit and Consumer credit.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/11/01/guidelines-how-to-use-this-site/

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 120 Comments

Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -82

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q2 GDP was reported lower: +2.2% v +2.6%. The market opened one point below yesterdays SPX 2111 close, ticked up to 2012, dipped to 2006, and then tried to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 45.8 v 54.9. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 95.4 v 93.6, and Pending home sales were higher: +1.7% v -3.7%. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2113 and then started to pullback. At 1:30 FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150227a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2104 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 45.5% v 45.7%.

The market opened lower again today, bounced around in the first few minutes, hit SPX 2106, then rallied to 2113 just past noon. After that it pulled back for the rest of the day, retesting yesterday’s low at SPX 2104. This entire week traded in a 17 point range. Nothing to add to yesterday’s report, except that the USD was quiet and Crude rallied. We will cover all the potential short term counts in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 23 Comments

Thursday update

SHORT TERM: market in pullback mode, DOW -10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 313k v 283k, the CPI was reported lower: -0.7% v -0.4%, but Durable goods were reported higher: +2.8% v -3.3%. Then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.8%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2014 close, then pulled back to SPX 2106 by 10am. After that it rallied to SPX 2014 by 11am, before starting a choppy pullback to 2104 by just after 3pm. Then the market rallied to close at SPX 2111.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude dropped $1.95, Gold added $3, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +2.0%) at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:15, Consumer sentiment and Pending home sales at 10am, then a speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 1:30.

The market opened lower today, like it has done for about two weeks. It dipped down to SPX 2106 by 10am, bounced to 2114 by 11am, hit 2104 just after 3pm, then rallied into the close. Our initial short term concern level, at SPX 2102, was not hit today, but the market did set up a potential short term positive divergence at the 2104 low. As the NDX/NAZ tried to rally all day, the cyclicals appeared to be held in check by the strong USD rally +1%, and the 5% drop in Crude at its lows. Nevertheless, we do see five waves up from the SPX 1981 downtrend low, with each rising wave shorter than the previous one. This suggests a few potential short term scenarios. But we will await either new highs or a drop below SPX 2102 before getting into any detail. Q2 GDP tomorrow could be the catalyst. Short term support is at SPX 2104 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 122 Comments