Friday update

SHORT TERM: another 10-point range day, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 2435. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 2431, and then started to rally. At 10am new home sales were reported higher. At 2pm the SPX hit 2441, dropped to 2434 by 3:30, then bounced to close at 2438.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower, and the Q2 GDP estimate remained at 2.9%.

The market opened unchanged today, dipped, rallied, dipped again, then ended the day up 3-points. Another 10-point range day, the fourth in a row. With only one-point net progress since Tuesday’s close. No change in the short-term count either. Monday’s SPX 2454 high could have been the high for the uptrend. And, the NAZ rally off the recent low still looks corrective. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening then drift, DOW -13

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported higher. The market opened 1-point above yesterday’s SPX 2436 close, then drifted down to 2433 by 10:30. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher. After hitting SPX 2433 the market started to drift higher. At 1pm the SPX hit 2442, held until the last hour, then dropped to end the day at 2435.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: new home sales at 10am.

The market opened 1-point higher today, dipped to SPX 2433, rallied to 2442, then ended the day at 2435. The third consecutive 10-point range, non-eventful day. We are, however, observing some potential negatives for this uptrend. If the SPX had a failed Minute iv flat at 2419, that one wave rally to 2454 could have been it for the uptrend. Adding to that possible scenario is the constant negative weekly RSI/MACD divergences, and the recent negative daily RSI/MACD divergences at that high. The NAZ has rallied in three large-scale quantified waves off of its recent 6108 low. Something it has not done during the entire Nov-Jun uptrend. This suggests the recent rally is corrective. And, the NAZ still displays negative RSI daily/weekly divergences off the recent 6342 high. Looks like it is time to again get a bit cautious short/medium term. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum reached oversold at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: cyclical/tech sectors reverse roles, DOW -57

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower, then higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2441. The SPX had closed at 2437 yesterday. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher. By 10:30 the SPX had ticked up to 2442 and then started to pullback. By 11am the SPX hit 2433, bounced to 2438 by noon, then hit 2431 by 2pm. Another bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2436.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.10, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims at 8:30, then leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened higher today, ticked up, and then pulled back for the rest of the day. While the pullback was not surprising, the reversal of sector performance was. The Techs have been leading the market lower for nearly two weeks, while Cyclicals have made new highs. Today that role reversed, as the Techs rallied while the Cyclicals were moving lower. A 3% surge in Biotech may have helped. No change on the short term count, four overlapping waves from Minute iv at SPX 2416: 2444-2419-2456-2431. Subdividing Minute v or ending diagonal underway? Short term support remains at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum bounced slightly off today’s oversold condition. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: turnaround Tuesday, DOW -62

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. Also overnight FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech in the Netherlands: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170620a.htm. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2453 record close. Around 12:30 the SPX had declined to 2440. Then after a bounce to SPX 2445 by 1:30 the market traded down to SPX 2437 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude lost 90 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market opened lower today, then traded down to SPX 2437. This represents a 17-point decline from yesterday’s SPX 2454 all-time high. Short term, the rally from Minute iv at SPX 2416, is now starting to look like four overlapping waves: 2444-2419-2454-2437. Minute v subdividing further, or a diagonal triangle in the making? Short term support drops to the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ends the day oversold. Best to your trading! Swarm is up next.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Swarm today at 5pm, and last week’s results

Participation remained steady in the Swarm last week, and the results continue to be above the average response. Last week’s result were 3 of 6 correct. After 18 weeks the Swarm is 63% accurate in the 6 sectors we track. Impressive!

If you have not previously participated and would like to, please follow the instructions in the second paragraph of this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

Please fill out this survey any time before entering the swarm on Tuesday at 5pm. Unanimous AI is offering a $25 Amazon Gift card to the most correct participant each week: https://www.research.net/r/LVD26HH.

Use this private link to enter the SPX UNU on Tuesday: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382.

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then new highs, DOW +144

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2443 and continued to rally. The SPX has closed at 2433 on Friday. After hitting SPX 2452 by 10:30 the market went into drift mode. By 1:30 the market had reached SPX 2453 and then started to pullback. At 3pm the SPX touched 2448, then hit a new high at 2454 before closing at 2453.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.50%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slid 60 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. No economic reports until Wednesday.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied to a new all-time high of SPX 2454, then pulled back slightly into the close. With today’s rally past SPX 2446 it appears Minute wave v, despite the lagging NDX/NAZ, is extending. Counting from the SPX 2416 Minute wave iv low we now see three waves up: 2444-2419-2454 so far. This suggests the OEW 2479 pivot is now within the upside range of this ongoing uptrend. Short term support is at the 2444 and 2428 pivots, with resistance at the 2456 and 2479 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, then backed off some. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2432. After a decline to SPX 2420 on Monday the market rallied to 2444 by Wednesday. The market dropped to SPX 2419 on Thursday, then rallied to 2433 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.0%. Economic reports continue to be weak. On the downtick: retail sales, the CPI, business inventories, import prices, the Philly FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment, the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, and the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: the NY FED and jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by leading indicators and more housing.

LONG TERM: uptrend

The long-term wave count we have been tracking had remained unchanged for about a year. There will probably be some minor adjustments as time goes on: project-monitor-adjust. Overall, however, we do expect this to continue to least 2018 and possibly 2020. The longer-term pattern appears more and more probable into the foreseeable future. More on this in a soon to be released special report.

We continue to label the SPX 667 low in 2009 as the end of Super cycle wave 2. Suggesting a Super cycle wave 3, multi-generational bull market began at that time. Primary wave I, of the first of five Cycles waves, began at that time and concluded in 2015 at SPX 2135. Then after a short and swift bear market Primary II bottomed at SPX 1810 in 2016. A Primary wave III bull market began at that time. Currently the market is rising in Major wave 1 of that Primary III. And, if our estimates are correct for SPX 3000+, it appears to be about halfway done at this point in time.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

The NDX/NAZ, which have been leading the SPX/DOW higher in recent months, display indications that their 7-month, 13-wave uptrend may have recently ended. Should this be the case the downside pressure created should eventually pull the general market down as well. The NAZ in particular has a fairly uniform pattern since 2016.

It advanced in 13-waves, 5-trends, 1100+ points over 7-months to complete its Intermediate wave i. Then after a 2-month decline, where it lost 5.8%, it ended Int. wave ii. After that it rallied in 13-waves, one trend, 1300+ points over 7-months for Int. iii.

After last week’s selloff it has rebounded then consolidated into this week’s options expiration. The weekly RSI is displaying a negative divergence, just like it did at the end of Int. i. And, there has been relatively heavy volume during the recent decline. A correction down to NAZ 5900-6000 would not surprise at this time

The SPX has been rising in five Minute waves from its recent downtrend low at 2329 in mid-April. Different count than the NDX/NAZ but both leading to a potential Int. iii conclusion. Minute waves i thru iv have completed: 2406-2353-2446-2416. And, Minute wave v may have already completed this week with a slight failure at 2444. A negative RSI divergence appears on this chart as well. Medium term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots.

SHORT TERM

While Minute i advanced in five Micro waves as displayed in orange on the chart. Minute iii also advanced in five waves, but on a much smaller scale: 2419-2404-2440-2425-2446. Then the decline for Minute iv to SPX 2416, set up the recent rally to 2444, decline to 2419, then rally to 2434. Minute wave iv triangle underway? Or a failed Minute v at SPX 2444?

Either way we have some important levels to watch. For a breakout to continue the uptrend SPX 2444 and 2446. For a breakdown, to join the NDX/NAZ, and potentially enter a downtrend SPX 2416 and 2406. Until one or the other occurs this mixed market continues. Short term support is at the 2428 and 2411 pivots, with resistance at the 2444 and 2456 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week nearing overbought. Trade what’s in front of you!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were nearly all lower on the week losing 0.4%.

European markets were also nearly all lower losing 0.5%.

The DJ World index gained 0.2%, and the NYSE lost 0.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week. It looks like the 6-month decline in 10YR rates may be coming to an end soon. Long-term rates have been declining while the FED has been raising short term rates 75 bps, (Dec., Mar., and Jun). With the economy weakening some, and inflation rolling over, the likelihood of another rate increase is at best 6 months away.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 1.9% on the week. Time for the Saudi’s and Russia to talk it up again.

Gold is in an uptrend but lost 1.2% on the week. If stocks enter a downtrend Gold could catch a bid.

The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.1% on the week. The USD has also been in a decline since December. Since the FED started raising rates in December: USD down, Crude down and Bonds up.

NEXT WEEK

Light schedule for economic reports this week. Wednesday: existing home sales. Thursday: jobless claims and leading indicators. Friday: new home sales. Best to your week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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