Weekend Report

November 8 2019

The breakout continues as the SPX made another new all time high and weekly closing this high finishing up 26 for the week and closing at 3093.

SPX opened the week with a gap open to 3050 on Monday and closed at 3068 on the day.  Another gap to 3080 occurred on Tuesday and a range from 3068 to 3097 from Tuesday morning to the close on Friday.  The last hour of the week on Friday saw buying from 3082 to the 3093 close.

SPX/DOW moved up 0.85%/1.22% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.16%/1.06%.

On the economic front, PMI was slightly above expectations with a 54.7 reported vs. 53.5 expected.  Unemployment was 211K vs. 215K expected.   Consumer sentiment came in at 95.7 vs. 96 expected.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout from consolidation

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2930 level provides support going forward.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend breakout in progress.

SPX appears broke out of multiple 1,2 formations 3 of 3 of 3 at this time.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  The new all-time highs appear to have confirmed the previous micro 2 low.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, ideally the previous 1 wave highs would provide support going forward.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

spxdaily

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.95%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.89%.

The DJ World index gained 0.77%, and the NYSE gained 0.81%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost -1.94%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.85%

Gold is in an downtrend and lost 3.21%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 2.86%.

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 1.2%.

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 252 Comments

Weekend Report

November 1 2019

It was an excellent week in the equity world this Fed week.  Looking at US markets we see the SPX, Nasdaq, COMPQ, and Dow Jones 30 all breaking out of multiple 1,2 setups to new highs.  Looking at Europe we see similar set ups (though not necessarily the same OEW count) in the German Dax, the Swiss SMI, and the French CAC.

As expected, the US Fed cut its lending rate an additional 0.25%.

SPX opened the week with a gap open to 3032.  The SPX touched 3048 at 10AM Tuesday morning and was then rangebound between 3020 and 3048 until Thursday afternoon when a run up began from 3023.  A 12 pt. gap up on Friday kicked off a nice final day of the week with Friday closing out at 3066.

SPX/DOW moved up 1.47%/1.44% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.64%/1.74%.

On the economic front, Consumer confidence was slightly down.  Advance GDP was higher than expected at 1.9% vs. 1.6% expected.   Non-farm employment was +128K vs. +90K expected.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout from consolidation

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2920 level provides support going forward.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend breakout in progress.

SPX appears to be breaking out of multiple 1,2 formations at this time.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  The new all-time highs appear to have confirmed the previous micro 2 low.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, ideally the previous 1 wave highs would provide support going forward.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

spxdaily

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.15%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 1.08%.

The DJ World index gained 1.32%, and the NYSE gained 1.17%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.81%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.41%

GBTC is in a downtrend but gained 8.6%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.46%.

Have a good week!

 

Posted in Updates | 494 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

October 26 2019

SPX opened the week up and rallied to reach 3007 by Monday’s close.  Last weeks close was 2986.  Tuesday gapped higher and rallied to 3015 by early afternoon, then declined to finish as an outside day down at 2995.  Wednesday opened lower and made the low of the week at 2991 in the first half hour of trade, then rallied back for the rest of the day to finish at 3005.  Thursday opened with a gap higher and reached 3016 in the first half hour, then reversed and chopped around in a 16 point range for the rest of day, before closing at 3010.  Friday opened lower but quickly reversed and rallied to the high of the week at 3027 before noon, then consolidated for the rest of the day to finish the week at 3022.

SPX/DOW gained 1.22%/0.70% while NDX/NAZ gained 2.04%/1.90%.

On the economic front, Existing and New Home Sales declined while median prices increased.  Durable Goods Orders declined for total and ex-transportation.  EIA Crude Inventories declined.  Consumer Sentiment (final reading) was up from prior month at a bullish 60.5%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend consolidating

wklyreport

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  We modified our long term status to identify that the uptrend is consolidating and that remains until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of the overlapping wave structure.  Our alternate count for a potential breakdown is posted on the DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX continued the rally this week to reach 3027, just one point shy of the all-time, before pulling back to finish the week at 3022.  The rally was sufficient to confirm a new uptrend and the medium term status has been updated accordingly.  We now have NAZ, NDX and SPX in confirmed uptrends and we’re expecting DOW to follow in the coming days.  Several other key indices have confirmed as well, such as DJW, NYA, TRAN and XLF.  This suggests Micro wave 2 completed at the 2856 low early this month and Micro wave 3 has been ongoing ever since.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 would be 1.618x Micro wave 1, which gives 3180.  However, if the rally fails to exceed the 3056 pivot, which is right at Micro wave 3 equal Micro wave 1, then the consolidation pattern that’s been in play since last October will remain.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Not much has changed short term.  We continue to count three waves up from the Micro wave 2 low as Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii in progress.  Nano wave iii has now extended beyond the length of Nano wave i, which further suggests an impulsive pattern is underway.  The next level to watch for a potential target is 3061, which is the 1.618x ratio.  A retrace back to 2960 would warn that another subdivision may be in play, while below 2893 would invalidate the impulse.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 and 3046 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.48%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.44%.

The DJ World index gained 1.31%, and the NYSE gained 1.07%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.29%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 5.18%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 0.75%

GBTC is in a downtrend and gained 4.75%.

The USD is in a downtrend and gained 0.61%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 427 Comments

Weekend Report

October 19 2019

Thanks goes to the OEW group for this report.

SPX opened the week flat, and moved up through Thursday making a high for the week at 3008 in the SPX cash before 10AM CST.  The open on Friday at 3000 marked the high for the day with a low of 2976 made at noon.  The week closed out with the SPX at 2986.

SPX/DOW moved 0.54%/-0.17% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.31%/0.40%.

On the economic front, Retail Sales declined.  Unemployment was flat at 214K compared to 210K the previous week.

LONG TERM: Uptrend consolidation continues, no breakouts or breakdowns

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020, or breakdown below the micro 2 low at 2859 should clear things up.  Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend likely underway

SPX again tested the top of last week’s range and found resistance at the 3008 level.  The rally remains above EMA resistance and the 2970 level should provide initial support.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  We now have qualified medium term subdivisions that suggest three waves up from the tentative Micro wave 2 low.   This is a good start for an impulsive structure, however more price action is needed to further qualify it.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

spxdaily

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.62%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 1.89%.

The DJ World index gained 0.89%, and the NYSE gained 0.62%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.04%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 1.52%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.36%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 11%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 1.02%.

 

Comments are shut down at this time. They may be reopened at a later date. There is a lot going on in my personal life at the moment which is preventing me staying on top of the comments.

Thanks for everyone’s continues support.

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

October 12 2019

SPX opened the week down, but rallied higher to reach 2960 in the afternoon, before closing Monday back down at 2938.  Last weeks close was 2952.  Tuesday opened with a large gap down and declined to reach 2897 by noon, then rallied up to 2925 by the late afternoon, but abruptly reversed to close on the low of the week at 2893 in the last hour of trade.  Wednesday opened higher and rallied most of the day to finish at 2920.  Thursday rallied up to 2948 before noon, then pulled back and leveled off to close at 2938.  Friday opened with a big gap higher over Monday’s price range to reach the high of the week at 2993 by late morning, then proceeded to consolidate for the rest of the day, before selling off in the last half hour to close the week at 2970.

SPX/DOW gained 0.62%/0.91% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.16%/0.93%.

On the economic front, PPI and Core PPI declined.  CPI was flat while core CPI was up slightly.  Consumer Sentiment was higher and bullish at 61% as we read the data.  The ECRI weekly growth indictor moved up for the fourth week in a row and remains above the zero line at +1.06%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend may be weakening

weeklyspx

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure.  Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend likely underway

dailyspx

SPX traded down to reach the low of the week at 2893 on Tuesday, then rallied for the rest of the week to achieve an intraday high of 2993 on Friday, followed by a pullback to close at 2970.  Tuesday again produced the negative reversal as seen the last couple of weeks, but this time price held there with no follow through.  This price action was constructive, establishing a higher low and supports the potentially completed zig zag pattern for this downtrend as discussed in the previous report.  SPX tested the top of last week’s range and found resistance there at our 2995 pivot.  But the rally was able to gap over EMA resistance and travel well beyond the 61.8% retracement level for this downtrend.  Consequently, we’ve updated the medium status and identified a tentative Micro wave 2 at the 2856 low.  From there, we now have qualified medium term subdivisions that suggest three waves up from the tentative Micro wave 2 low.   This is a good start for an impulsive structure, however more price action is needed to further qualify it.  An overlap back below 2960 would suggest an additional subdivision may be developing, while a large retrace back below 2893 would invalidate the impulse and extend the downtrend.  Medium term RSI moved up in the neutral zone and MACD is beginning to turn back up.

SHORT TERM

hourlyspx.png

Not much to add here as the short term waves currently track closely with the medium term subdivisions.  We’ve updated the chart and scaled the three waves up as Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii in progress.  We are now waiting to see if Nano wave iii can extend and/or subdivide to further confirm an impulsive structure.  So far, the first and third waves of this rally are nearly equal at 104 and 100 points respectively, which could suggest a completed zig zag b-wave for a possible extension of the existing downtrend.  We’ll just have to wait and see how the market resolves these short term patterns.  RSI ended the week neutral after becoming overbought at the highs.

Short term support is at the 2957 and 2929 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2984 and 2995 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.90%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 3.17%.

The DJ World index gained 1.20%, and the NYSE gained 0.74%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 1.49%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 3.58%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 1.60%

GBTC is in a downtrend and gained 1.29%.

The USD is in an uptrend and lost 0.49%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 348 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

October 5 2019

SPX opened the week up and rallied most of the day Monday to close at 2977.  Last weeks close was 2962.  Tuesday had a gap up to reach the high of the week at 2993 within the first half hour of trade, but then sharply reversed lower, apparently based on the bad ISM report signalling a contraction in manufacturing.  SPX then sold off the rest of the day Tuesday, gapped down on Wednesday and continued to decline until it found the low of the week at 2856 in the first hour on Thursday.  From there, SPX rallied to reach 2911 by Thursday’s close.  Friday opened with a gap higher and continued a strong rally all the way back to within Tuesday’s price range, before closing the week at 2952.

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 0.33%/0.93% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.94%/0.54%.

On the economic front, ISM Manufacturing and Services were both lower, although Services remains in expansion mode.  Payrolls were higher as the unemployment rate made a 50 year low at 3.5%.  Our Investor Sentiment indicator increased to 56.5% and is quite bullish as we read the data.  The ECRI weekly growth indictor moved up for the third week in a row and is back above the zero line at +0.83%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend may be weakening

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure.  Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

spxdaily

SPX extended the decline with a large outside reversal down on Tuesday (same as last week), followed by a gap below the critical 2940 level mentioned last week and reached a low of 2856 Thursday morning.  A strong reversal for the remainder of the week retraced halfway back for the entire decline from the 3022 high.  SPX finished the week at 2952, which is within the next pivot range and just below the medium term EMA’s which are providing resistance for the time being.  This price action confirmed that a new downtrend is underway with the possibility of a completed pattern at the 2856 low.  This also resolved the scale dilemma that we’ve been discussing for the last few weeks.  As a result, we can now count five waves up from 2822 to 3022 with a small fifth wave, which suggests the entire uptrend is Micro wave 1 of Minute wave iii.  Micro wave 2 has been underway since the September top and found support at our 2858 pivot range, with medium term subdivisions that suggest a completed zig zag pattern of three waves down.  This represents a 5.5% decline, which would be typical for this wave scale.  However, we need more price action to see if a new uptrend can take hold, or whether another retest of the low may be forthcoming.  Medium term RSI got sufficiently oversold at the low, which is consistent with prior downtrend lows.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned in the previous section, we’ve rescaled the count to show Micro wave 1 as five Nano waves up from 2822 to 3022, which includes a subdivided leading diagonal for Nano wave i as part of that sequence.  Using our short term techniques we can count seven small wave down from the 3022 top, which suggests a 5-1-1 zig zag pattern for Micro wave 2 so far.  That gives Nano wave a = 2946, Nano wave b = 2993 and Nano wave c = 2856.  We then have a 98 point rally off the low to the intraday high on Friday, which is by far the largest retrace since the downtrend began.  Short term RSI ended the week extremely overbought, so a small wave pullback could come at any time.  With all the volatility this week, SPX ended right back in the same support/resistance zone where it left off last week.  As one of our members pointed out while discussing group sentiment, “nothing has changed”.  So far, only the speculative short term waves have been affected.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.83%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 1.49%.

The DJ World index lost 0.90%, and the NYSE lost 1.08%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and gained 1.17%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 5.54%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.43%

GBTC is in a downtrend and gained 3.89%.

The USD is in an uptrend and lost 0.22%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 474 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

September 28 2019

SPX opened the week down 10 points to 2982 in the first half hour of trade, rallied back to positive territory, before closing Monday unchanged at 2992.   Tuesday gapped up and made the high of the week at 3008 within the first half hour, then reversed into a sharp decline to reach 2958 by the afternoon, then bounced and traded in a 20 point range before finishing with an outside day down at 2967.   Wednesday opened flat but quickly declined to take out Tuesday’s low and reach 2953 within the first half hour, then reversed with a strong rally for the rest of the day to finish up at 2985. Thursday traded down to reach 2964 before noon, then rallied back to even, before reversing in the last half hour to close off on the day at 2978.  Friday opened higher but reversed and declined to find the low of the week at 2946 in the late afternoon, then rallied into the close to finish the week at 2962.

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 1.01%/0.43% while NDX/NAZ lost 1.81%/2.19%.

On the economic front, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Spending, PCE and core-PCE were all higher.  Consumer Confidence declined, while Consumer Sentiment moved higher and remains bullish at 58.2% as we read the data.  Q2 GDP third estimate was unchanged at 2.0%.  The ECRI weekly growth indictor moved up again and is now just below the zero line at -0.23%.

LONG TERM: Uptrend may be weakening

spxwkly

 

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor and Minute waves.  However, we maintain our cautious status that the uptrend may be weakening until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of this overlapping structure.  Consequently, we’re still tracking our alternate count on DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX extended the decline with a large outside reversal down on Tuesday, a rally on Wednesday followed by additional declines to find the low of the week at 2946 late Friday.  A small bounce into the close at 2962 was not sufficient to signal the end of this two week pullback, which suggests Micro wave 4 is still in play.  As mentioned last week, we have a dilemma with the wave count due to scale uncertainty pending further price action.  But until this pullback can overlap 2940, we’re maintaining our current structure as Micro wave 1 = 2940, Micro wave 2 = 2892, Micro wave 3 = 3021 and Micro wave 4 in progress.  This count requires a large fifth wave in order to achieve our logical target for Minute wave iii at the 3300 level.  The uptrend continues to hold an impulse structure but is getting sloppy with this extended 4th wave.  An overlap of Micro wave 1 would be concerning and suggest the medium term uptrend may be weakening.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term techniques we can count three more small waves down this week from our Nano wave b high, [3022]>2953>2990>2946.  There are several ways to consider the entire structure from the Micro 3 wave top at 3021, so we’re waiting for additional price action to sort that out.  It could be five overlapping waves from Micro wave 3, or an additional small wave down to complete the irregular a-b-c structure mentioned last week.  Micro wave 4 will be invalidated if it overlaps Micro wave 1 at 2940.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 2.40%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 1.21%.

The DJ World index lost 1.19%, and the NYSE lost 0.93%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and gained 0.48%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and lost 3.75%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 0.57%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 21.97%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.64%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Thanks for your patience!

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 620 Comments