Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

July 13, 2019

This week started off with gaps down both Monday and Tuesday, which hit the low of the week at SPX 2963 within the first hour of trading Tuesday morning.  SPX closed last week at 2991.  From there, the market rallied for the rest of the week, seeming fueled by Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony of a “very likely” rate cut next month.  Wednesday began with a gap up and rally to 3003 within the first hour, then pulled back and traded in a range the rest of the day to close at 2993.  Thursday had another small gap up to 3002, then traded in a range and closed at an all-time high of 3000.  Friday had another small gap up and then proceeded to rally all day to close on the high of the week at 3014.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 0.78%/1.52% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.30%/1.01%.

On the economic front, Consumer Credit increased.  The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS and MBA Mortgage Application Index all declined, while Wholesale Inventories increased.

Next week economic news comes from Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Import Prices and Export Prices.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since.  Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

Not much has changed this week as the uptrend continues to extend reaching all-time highs now at 3014.  The small pullback early in the week was insufficient to trigger any medium term subdivision, so we continue to count this rally as Minute wave i of Minor wave 3, which has been in progress since the Minor wave 2 low at 2729 on June 3rd.  This wave has now achieved 285 points in 28 trading days and has become the longest such rally of our Primary wave III bull market since the exponential rise from Dec 2017 to the Intermediate wave iii top in January 2018. We’re still cautious that a more significant pullback could occur at any time, but the market keeps pushing through our short term targets and pivots.  The first logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at 3300.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term tracking, we can now count seven waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]> 2911> 2875> 2964> 2913> 2996> 2963> 3014, which sets a short term inflection point.  The 33 point pullback to Tuesday’s low at 2963 completed the impulsive pattern of five Micro waves as previously reported.  However, the subsequent rally beyond our 3002 target to new highs created an ambiguity.  We can’t yet rule out the possibility of an irregular Minute wave i top.  After much discussion within the OEW group, we decided to track the irregular scenario till the market dictates otherwise.  This suggests Micro wave 5 completed at 2996 and Minute wave ii is subdividing into three waves, Micro wave a = 2963, Micro wave b = 3014 so far, with Micro wave c to follow.  Above 3016, Micro wave b would be greater than 1.618x Micro wave a, which exceeds our limit for this count and suggests something else may be in play.  We have a couple of alternative counts under consideration and will report on those when the time comes.  Friday’s close got within 2 points of our limit, while sitting at another short term divergence at the high.

Short term support is at the 2995 and 2984 pivots.  Resistance is at the 3033 pivot.  Short and medium term RSI both have negative divergences.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 0.72%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 0.60%.

The DJ World index gained 0.16%, and the NYSE gained 0.18%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and lost 0.34%

Crude oil is in an uptrend and gained 4.69%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.86%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 2.45%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.48%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

 

Posted in Updates | 40 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

July 06, 2019

This holiday shortened week opened with a large gap up to SPX 2971 on Monday, hit 2978 within the first hour then began to sell off.  After lunch the SPX had dropped to 2952 but that was to become the low for the week.  On Tuesday 2970 became resistance early on producing a pullback to 2956 but from there the SPX moved on up and hit 2996 at the early close on Wednesday.  With Thursday being a holiday, Happy 4th to all, Friday saw a gap down to open at 2984 and continued to sell off into 2968.  A rally then started into 2994 before a 2990 close.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 1.65%/1.21% while NDX/NAZ gained 2.22%/1.94%.

The economic news had positive reports for ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non Farm Payrolls, while ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI were all negative.

Next week economic news comes from Core CPI, Core PPI, FED Minutes and the FED Monetary Policy Report.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

This week started off with a large gap up at the open on Monday and proceeded to rally to a new all-time high of 2996 by the holiday shortened close on Wednesday.  Nice way to celebrate the 4th of July and honor our beloved maestro’s birthday, we miss you Tony!   There was no change to that status post-holiday, as Friday gapped down at the open, but recovered to fill most of the gap and finish just 6 points off the high by the end of the week.  The NAZ and NDX joined the party and confirmed new uptrends, which now puts all our market in alignment.  This extends the Minor wave 3 rally to 267 points from the Minor wave 2 low at 2729.  It’s been a persistent rally, 22 days without a medium term subdivision, which is right up there equal to the longest such duration since the Major wave 2 low last December.  This suggests some caution is advised, since a significant pullback could come at any time.  First logical target for Minor wave 3 completion remains at the 3300 level.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Using our short term tracking, we can now count five waves up from the Minor wave 2 low [2729]>2911>2875>2964>2913>2996, which sets up a nice impulsive structure for the beginning of Minor 3.  We continue to track this as a potential Minute wave i of Minor wave 3, that’s subdividing into five Micro waves.  Micro wave 5 has been underway since last week’s low at 2913 and is either at or near completion at the high this week of 2996.  The upper limit for this count remains at 3002, since Micro wave 3 can’t be the smallest wave for this structure.  The market ran into resistance at our next pivot and setup a slight negative RSI divergence at Wednesday’s high.  Risk is now elevated for a sizable decline in the near term.  However, extension beyond 3002 suggests our alternate count may be in play, which is a more bullish Nano wave subdivision.  Once Minute wave i completes, we would expect the largest pullback since the trend began.

Short term support is at the 2984 and 2957 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2995 and 3032 pivots.  Short term and medium term RSI both have negative divergences.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.13%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.55%.

The DJ World index gained 1.21%, and the NYSE gained 1.24%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.23%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 1.46%

Gold is in an uptrend and lost 1.46%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 3.04%.

The USD is in a downtrend and gained 1.28%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 169 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

June 29, 2019

The week opened lower as the SPX gradually declined all day Monday to a low of 2944.  Last week’s close was at 2949.  On Tuesday the decline accelerated and continued throughout the day to a low of 2916 within the final hour of trading.  On Wednesday the SPX bounced up to 2933 at the open, but quickly reversed and proceeded to decline for the rest of the day to find the low of the week in the late afternoon at 2913.  Thursday and Friday saw a steady rally up to a high of 2944 within the last hour of trading and closed the week at 2942.

For the week, SPX/DOW lost 0.29/0.45% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.75/0.32%.

The economic news was mostly negative, with Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and Case Shiller Home Price Index all lower.  FHFA Housing Price Index and Mortgage Applications were higher.

Next week economic news comes from Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and Auto and Truck sales.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.

 

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

This week the market paused as SPX generated a 51 point pullback to the low of the week at 2913 on Wednesday, then rallied on Friday to close at 2942, which regained most of the ground lost.  Although NAZ and NDX were still unable to confirm an uptrend, most share markets and sectors we watch have confirmed, except for a few non-US markets.  No change in status this week and we’re still expecting NAZ and NDX to follow in the coming days.  The Minor 3 wave rally continues to hold at 235 points to last week’s high of 2964 and has yet to generate any medium term subdivision.   First logical target for Minor 3 wave completion remains at the 3300 level.  Still watching for a potential impulsive subdivision of Minute waves using our short term tracking techniques.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned in last week’s report, we were expecting another small pullback for the Minor 3 rally and this week delivered that outcome.  Although the 51 point decline was a little larger than expected, it wasn’t sufficient to generate an overlap.  So we now can count four waves up from the Minor 2 low [2729]>2911>2875>2964>2912, with the fifth wave in progress of a potential impulsive structure.  We also mentioned the two most likely options for this rally and as shown, we’re favouring the small Micro 3 wave scenario until the market proves otherwise.  This suggests an upper limit for Minute-i of 273 points, to a high of 3002, since the third wave of a valid impulse can’t be the smallest.  The Nano wave subdivision option remains on the table as an alternate count, if/when this next rally can exceed the Micro 3 rally of 89 points.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.  Short term RSI got extremely oversold on Tuesday and set up a nice positive divergence at the Micro 4 low.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.75%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.60%.

The DJ World index lost 0.06%, and the NYSE gained 0.02%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.38%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.81%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.97%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 21.46%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.05%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 144 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

June 22, 2019

The week began quietly as Monday continued the consolidation from last week.  The SPX gapped higher on Tuesday, rose to 2931, and then traded in a narrow range in front of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  The dovish Fed pushed the SPX higher with a gap up on Thursday.  The weekly high was reached mid-day on Friday at 2964, and the SPX closed at 2950 with late day volatility associated with Quadruple Witching options expiration.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 2.3% while the NDX/NAZ gained 3.15%.

The economic news for the week was negative, including the Empire State Manufacturing, NAHB Housing Market Index, Philadelphia Fed Index, and Leading Indicators.  The FOMC held rate constant and signalled future rate cuts possible.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth moved back below zero over the last few weeks.

ecriwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway and is subdividing into Minor waves.  Minor waves 1 and 2 completed by the first trading day in June and Minor wave 3 has been ongoing since then.  Interesting to note that the DOW subdivided with an irregular Minor 2 from its Minor 1 rally high in February and consequently became more oversold this month at the Minor 2 low than the Major-2 low in December (see weekly chart below).

induwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

As discussed in the previous report, we were expecting an uptrend and this week both Dow and SPX delivered on that outcome.  As a result, the status of Minor 2 has been updated from tentative to confirmed.  We are expecting NAZ and NDX to follow in the coming days, as these indices have a much larger % decline to overcome from their Minor 2 lows (10-12%).  This suggests that Minor 2 bottomed on the first trading day this month at 2729 and Minor 3 has been in progress ever since.  The Minor 3 rally has been quite strong, achieving 235 points so far to the high on Friday of 2964, without any medium term subdivision.  Our first logical target for Minor 3 completion would be equal to Minor 1, which projects approximately 600 points up to over the 3300 level.  We’re now watching for a potential impulsive subdivision of Minute waves using our short term tracking techniques.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we have Minor 2 confirmed at 2729 and can count three small waves up so far from the low using our short term techniques.  Micro 1 at 2911, Micro 2 at 2875 and Micro 3 at 2964, with a negative divergence now building at the high.  This suggests another small pullback around 30-40 points may be forthcoming in the near term.  There are several options under consideration for this rally depending on the timing and depth of the next pullback.  Most likely would be either a small Micro 3 wave near completion or a possible subdivision to include Nano waves.  We need more price action to sort that out.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance remains at the prior high of 2954 and above at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.  Short term RSI got overbought at the gap up on Thursday, then set up a negative divergence into the high on Friday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 4.9%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 3.5%.

The DJ World index gained 2.5%, and the NYSE gained 2.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.7%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 8.7%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 3.9%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 25.0%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 1.0%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!  Good luck trading the G-20 meeting!

Posted in Updates | 51 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

June 8, 2019

The week started at SPX 2751, had a small bounce to 2763 but then hit 2729 by early afternoon, which was to be the low for the week, then closed at 2744.  Tuesday saw a large gap up opening at 2763 and went straight into rally mode throughout Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as the SPX hit 2885, with nothing more than a 19pt pullback at most along the way.  Friday afternoon saw a small drift off the highs to close the week at 2873.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 4.41% while the NDX/NAZ gained 4.06%

Economic news this week had positive results for Factory Orders, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, while ISM Manufacturing and Non-Farm Payrolls declined.

Next week, economic news comes from PPI, Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend likely

spxdaily

We’ve been tracking the current Minor 2 downtrend as three Minute waves and have been looking for the Minute c completion of that pattern.  This week gave us the answer.  After the decline on Monday to 2729, which was right in range of our support target at the 2731 pivot, SPX abruptly reversed and achieved a significant rally of 156 pts to a high 0f 2885 by early Friday.  The strength of this rally was sufficient to trigger our WROC signal, which places high probability that a new uptrend is underway.  Consequently, we upgraded the medium term status and added the tentative marking for a potential Minor 2 bottom.  Although, some near term caution is advised since the rally has already reached logical resistance at the 2884 pivot and the Minute b rally high 2892.  Medium term RSI is overbought as well.  We are now watching the short term waves to see if this rally can impulse in a sustainable fashion.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

As mentioned, Minor 2 most likely completed at 2729.  We have Minute a at 2801 and Minute b at 2892.  Minute a and Minute c completed with similar size and structure, which resulted in a fairly symmetrical three pattern.  As you can see from the 60min chart, the pivots have done well, with Minor 1, Minute a, Minute b and Minor 2 all having turning points within those ranges.  From 2729, the SPX rallied to 2885 without any meaningful pullback.  After such a sizeable move, it would not be unexpected to get a significant pullback in the near term.  So far, our short term tracking can count only one wave up to 2885, so we’ll need more price action to assess this rally further.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  Short term RSI got extremely overbought at the high, then pulled back within the neutral zone by the close.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.34%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 4.49%.

The DJ World index gained 3.39%, and the NYSE gained 4.09%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.35%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 0.92%

Gold is in a uptrend and gained 0.25%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 4.79%.

The USD is in an uptrend and lost 1.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 26 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

June 1, 2019

The holiday shortened week started on Tuesday with a rally at the open to SPX 2841 which made the high of the week and then sold off for the rest of the day to 2802. Wednesday gapped down and continued lower into lunchtime hitting 2766, then rallied into the close finishing the day at 2783.  Thursday rallied through the first hour and reached a high of 2799, pulled back in the afternoon to 2777, then rallied into the close at 2789.  Friday saw another gap down, triggered by yet another Tariff Man threat on Mexico to stop illegal immigration flow, which hit the low of the week at 2751 within the first hour of trading, rallied up to 2769 by noon, then reversed in the afternoon to retest the low and close just one point above to finish the week at 2752.

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.62% while the NDX/NAZ lost 2.41%

Economic news this week had positive results for Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller Home Price Index, while MBA Mortgage Applications declined.

Next week, economic news comes from Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and Factory Orders.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

 

spxdaily

The current downtrend, Minor 2 has been ongoing for nearly the entire month of May.  This Minor wave has subdivided into three Minute waves.  Minute waves a and b ended around mid-month at 2801 and 2892 respectively, and Minute c has been underway since then.  Using our short term technique, Minute a appears to have subdivided into 3 smaller waves and we’re expecting Minute c to do the same.  The next Fibonacci target is 2739 where Minute c equal a.  Medium term support is at the 2731 pivot and the 2722 March low, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re counting three Minute waves down for Minor 2.  Minute a consisted of nine waves total, five down to 2836 for Micro a, three up to 2891 with an irregular b wave structure for Micro b, followed by one wave down to 2801 for Micro c.  Minute b was three waves up to 2892 and Minute c has been ongoing ever since.  So far we can count Minute c as nine waves down to Friday’s low, for a potentially completed Micro a.  From there, or maybe slightly lower levels, we would expect at least two more waves to complete an overall double three pattern for Minor 2.  Although these short term counts are speculative, so we will be watching the next rally for signs of a potential bottom.

Short term support is at the 2731 pivot and the 2722 March low.  Resistance is at 2780 and 2798 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart reached the most oversold this week since Feb and closed the week with a positive divergence, which suggests a short term bounce should be forthcoming.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.61%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 2.66%.

The DJ World index lost 1.85%, and the NYSE lost 2.52%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.27%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 8.75%

Gold is in a uptrend and gained 2.14%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 3.36%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.19%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

 

 

Posted in Updates

Weekend Update

Due to the holiday weekend there will be no weekend report.

Comments will be shutdown until further notice.

Have a good trading week.

Posted in Updates