Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: DOW hits 23k, DOW +40

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 export/import prices were reported higher, then at 9:15 industrial production and capacity utilization were reported higher too. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2558, dipped, hit the high at 2559 by 10am, and then started to pullback. Also at 10am the NAHB was reported higher. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2555 for the second time during the session then tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit a new high at 2560, then dipped to close at 2559.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude rose 10 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts and building permits at 8:30, then the FED Beige book at 2pm.

The market opened unchanged today, ticked up to the high, then pulled back until early afternoon. After that the market grinded out a new high at SPX 2560, while the DOW was crossing 23,000 for the first time. Total SPX range for the day was only 5 points. The short term count from the Micro 2 SPX 2417 low remains relatively unchanged. Nano 1. 2455, Nano 2. 2428, Nano 3 2480-2447-2509-2488-2560. Whenever Nano 3 completes, Nano 4 may only require about 15-point pullback from current levels. Looks like Micro 3 has its sites set on the 2575 pivot. Short term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum remains with a negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open, then pullback, DOW +85

Yesterday FED chair Yellen gave a speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20171015a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported higher. The market opened at a new high, SPX 2559, and immediately began to pullback. By 12:30 the SPX had dropped 6 points to 2553, and then tried to rebound. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2558 and ended the session.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: export/import prices at 8:30, industrial production at 9:15, then the NAHB at 10am.

The market continued its current routine, (sell-higher opens, buy-lower opens), this morning, as the market opened at a new all-time high then pulled back. The new high was marginal, only one point. And the pullback was minor, only six points. This gradual grind higher has been underway for the past 8 trading days. No change to the short term count, as the market appears to be waiting for a catalyst. With earnings season underway and options expiration on Friday, maybe we will see some definitive movement some time this week. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2549. After a small pullback to SPX 2542 on Monday, the market made a new high at SPX 2555 on Tuesday, retested that high on Wednesday/Thursday, then made a new high at SPX 2558 on Friday. The entire range for the week was SPX 2542-2558. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.4%. On the economic front all indicators this week were positive. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, business inventories, consumer sentiment, the Q3 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will include: the Beige book, industrial production. the NY/Philly FED and housing. Best to your week.

LONG TERM: uptrend

The bull market of February 2016 continues. We have been labeling this bull market as Major wave 1 of a 15+ year Primary wave III. Primary wave I unfolded from 2009 to 2015, as the SPX rose from 667 to 2135. Then after a Primary II bear market, 2015-2016, Primary III began at SPX 1810. According to our very long-term secular cycle analysis, Primary wave III’s are the best time to own stocks. Recent historical examples include; 1949-1966, and 1982-2000.

Thus far Major wave 1 has had a simple wave pattern. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Then Intermediate iii started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Since then Minor wave 5 of Int. iii has been underway.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 5 uptrend has been unfolding in five Minute waves. Minute wave i rose from SPX 2329 – 2454, with five Micro waves (orange). Then after a Minute ii decline to SPX 2408 in July, Minute iii was underway. Thus far Minute iii has advanced in three Micro waves (orange) from SPX 2408-2558. And is already longer than all of Minute i, with still Micro waves 4 and 5 to go.

Currently, however, there is a negative RSI divergence setup. Similar setups have occurred during all the Micro wave highs of this uptrend. Will the market again ignore this one and grind higher. Or is the elusive 20+ pullback next? This uptrend has relentlessly grinder higher at times. Medium term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots.

SHORT TERM

While this market has appeared stalled at times, with higher opens sold and lower opens bought. Our short term count from the Micro 2 SPX 2417 low remains on track. Nano 1. 2455, Nano 2. 2428, and Nano 3. 2480-2447-2509-2488-2558. Currently it will take about a 20+ point pullback to register Nano 4. Then after a pop to new highs, completing Micro 3, a 30+ point pullback for Micro 4 would likely be next.

Simply put once Micro 3 ends the market is likely to get quite choppy, day traders market, while the rest of the smaller waves unfold. Then when Minute iv concludes the impulsing higher should return for Minute v. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with another negative divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher for the week and gained 1.4%.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 0.3%.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%, and the NYSE gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.4%.

Gold remains in a downtrend but gained 2.3%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.8%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: export/import prices, industrial production, and the home builder index. Wednesday: housing starts, building permits and the Beige book. Thursday: jobless claims, Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: existing home sales, and a speech by FED chair Yellen well after the market closes.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

No Friday update today, Weekend update tomorrow.

 

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy day, DOW -32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower, and the PPI was reported higher. The market opened 4-points below yesterday’s SPX 2555 close, dipped to 2549 in the opening minutes, then started to rebound. By 1:30 the SPX was back 2555. After that the market headed lower again, hitting SPX 2548 in the last hour of trading. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2551.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, then consumer sentiment and business inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today, rebounded back to the all-time high, just like yesterday, then pulled back in the afternoon. After establishing a new ATH on Tuesday at SPX 2555, the market has hit it three more times without breaking through. Time for a pullback? Negative divergences on the SPX hourly/daily RSI, DOW hourly RSI, and NAZ daily RSI. Time for a pullback? JPM and C beat time/bottom line today but their stocks were lower. Time for pullback? I’m sure you can come up with a few others. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening then drift higher, DOW +42

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, and the market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2551 close. By 10am the SPX had drifted down to 2548. After that it started to drift higher. At 2pm the FED released the FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171011a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2555, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold gained $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims and the PPI at 8:30.

Not a whole lot new going on in this market these days. Market opened flat today, dipped, then rallied to yesterday’s all-time high, where it closed. The short term count from SPX 2417 remains basically unchanged: Nano 1: 2455, Nano 2: 2428, Nano 3: 2480-2447-2509-2488-2555. Still waiting for the elusive Nano 4 and Nano 5 to end Micro 3. Then Micro 4 and 5 to end Minute iii. Lots of subdivisions within the Minor 5 uptrend. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short tem momentum ended overbought. Best to you trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market opens higher then pulls back again, DOW +70

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 6-points above yesterday’s SPX 2545 close. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2555, a new high, then began to pullback. By 12:30 the market had retraced the entire opening rally when it hit SPX 2545. Then a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2551.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.35, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, after it looked like it was about to continue yesterdays’ pullback. In the opening minutes the SPX rallied to a new high at 2555. Then pulled back for the rest of the day. Choppy action the past three trading days after establishing the SPX 2553 high on Thursday. Still no change in the short term count. Been over two weeks since the market had its last notable pullback. Short term negative divergences just about everywhere. Short term support at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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