Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 21, 2019

Last Monday started with a sharp rally on positive trade news. After closing at 3169 the previous week, SPX jumped to 3198 and then spent the rest of Monday through Wednesday churning between 3191 and 3198 amid pre-impeachment uncertainty.  Thursday saw the market move out of the consolidation range to the upside in a breakout move that carried to 3226 on Friday.  SPX finished the week at 3221, another all-time closing high for the day and the week.

For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.65%/1.14 and the NDX/NAZ 2.25%/2.18%.

Economic reports continued to come in quite positive, all above jobs and housing data.  Job openings were up 7.3m vs 7m, and weekly jobless claims came in 234k vs 252k.  The constant improvement in housing starts (annualized 1,365k in Nov. vs 1,323k in Oct. vs 478k at April 2009 low), accompanied by a new yearly high in home builder sentiment (HMI 76 vs 71 in Nov.), and a decline in existing home sales by 1.7% in November because of low inventory levels could be a sign, that the housing market has bottomed.  Further positive or inline reports: industrial production (1.1% in Nov. vs. 1.08% in Oct.); capacity utilization (77.3% vs. 76.6% in Oct.); Empire State Manufacturing Survey (3.5 vs 2.9 Nov); leading indicators unchanged; Michigan Consumer Sentiment (99.3 vs 96.8 in Nov.); PCE index (0.2%; ex food and energy 0.1%); Q3 GDP unchanged at 2.1%, even though Atlanta Fed forecasts Q4 GDP at 2.3%.  WLEI was flat at 2.19%, but Philadelphia FED Business Outlook came in 0.3 vs 10.4 in November.

Coming Christmas week is light on economic data, with new home sales released on Monday, durable goods orders on Tuesday, and jobless claims and investor confidence on Thursday. Merry Christmas all!

The slow but steady improvement of the economy is reflected by the WLEI Index, which has been rising for a while and stayed at 2.2 for two weeks in a row.

ecriweeky

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension continues

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  With this weeks continued move to new all time highs we feel the market has gone high enough and continues to look impulsive enough to eliminate the bearish count we’ve previously carried on the DOW.

MEDIUM TERM:  Uptrend extends

spxdaily

SPX reached yet another all-time high at 3226 this week, as it broke out of the inflection point that we’ve been discussing since the last significant pullback early this month.  SPX gapped over 3206 on Friday, which solidified another subdivision higher for the Micro wave 3 uptrend that’s been ongoing from the early October low at 2856.  As a result, our medium term status has been updated and the daily chart was rescaled to reflect seven qualified subdivisions, which suggests this uptrend has at least a couple more waves to go before it’s complete.  The December rally from 3070 has gained 156 points in 13 trading days without a meaningful pullback.  This price trajectory is very similar to that achieved at the beginning of this uptrend.  Micro wave 3 now exceeds the nominal target for an extended third wave at 1.618x ratio to Micro wave 1, which sets up 3250 and 3380 as next likely targets for completion.  There are several possibilities to consider near term, including additional subdivisions or a small third wave, so we’re waiting for further price action to sort that out.  A retrace back to overlap 3154 would warn of another subdivision, while below 3070 would likely end this uptrend.  This extension also suggests Minute wave iii to go beyond the 3300 target previously reported.  Next target for that is 2x Minute-i, which projects above 3400.  As mentioned last week, some of our members are watching NAZ for a possibility that the December rally is a fifth wave, which could signal an earlier ending.

SHORT TERM:

spxhourly

Our short term count was updated to reflect changes discussed in the previous section.  We have five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154, with a large third wave, and that entire sequence now becomes Nano wave i subdivided with Pico waves 1 thru 5.  From there, we have Nano wave ii at 3070, followed by Nano wave iii ongoing to 3226.  We’re watching to see if this potential Nano third wave can reach our next pivot at 3256, which would be further confirmation for this wave count.   Nominal target for this wave structure would be third equal to first, which gives about 3370.  However, it’s possible that a small third wave could stop short of that and limit the upside for this pattern.  We’re waiting for the next qualified pullback to help clarify the picture.  SPX blew through the negative divergence last week, reached extremely overbought at the high and finished the week just inside the neutral zone.

Short term support is at the 3210 and 3180 pivots, while resistance is at the 3256 and 3278 pivots.

GLOBAL MARKETS:

trends

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Due to the holidays there will most likely be a one to two week break in the reports. 

Happy Holidays and Have a good week!

 

Posted in Updates

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 14, 2019

SPX closed Dec. 6 at 3146 after a weekly high at 3151.  This week opened unchanged, but then drifted lower in front of the Wednesday Fed meeting.  Tuesday and Wednesday ranged between 3127 and 3143 before exploding higher on Thursday’s open in reaction to renewed US-China trade optimism.  After reaching a new all-time high at 3176, profit-taking and nervousness dropped the market back to retest old high 3151 before bouncing once again.  Trade talks, UK elections and impeachment proceedings generated volatile action that carried the market to a new all-time high at 3182 on the Friday open before finishing the week at 3169.

For the week, SPX/DOW gained 0.73/0.43%, while NDX/NAZ gained 1.08/0.91%

No big surprises on the economic front.  As expected, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 1.5-1.75%.  The real news came during the press conference, when FED Chair Powell signaled to keep rates unchanged in 2020 even if the 2% inflation target should be met or slightly exceeded for a short period of time.

Most economic reports were stable or moderately to the upside: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (104.7 vs 102.4); CPI (0.3% vs 0.4%), up 2.1% YoY, and core CPI (0.2%) in line with expectations; PPI unchanged; import prices up 0.2%, but down 1.3% YoY, and business inventories increased 0.2% in October vs -0.1% in September. Weekly jobless claims though, rose to 252k from 203k last week, and retail sales declined slightly to 0.2% vs 0.3% last month.

The slow but steady improvement of the economy is reflected by the WLEI Index, which has been rising for a while and made a yearly high last week at 2.4%.  It is now at 2.2%.

ecriweekly

Next week’s reports are: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Housing Market Index, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, JOLTS, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia FED Business Outlook, leading indicators, existing home sales, GDP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, corporate profits, personal income, consumer spending and Kansas City Manufacturing Index.

 

SECULAR CYCLES:  Revisiting 100-years of OEW by Tony Caldaro

A classic chart, just as a great painting, will stand the test of time.  Such is the case with the 100-year DOW chart Tony Caldaro posted here on the public blog on October 21, 2017.  The chart reveals, like any masterpiece, many levels of information.  Primarily, it shows his Objective Elliott Wave count for over 100 years of stock market price and time.  Second, it identifies a Saeculum.  A Saeculum is a long-term cycle that has existed throughout history.  It lasts on average about 75-80 years and consists of four phases or turnings, each one about 15-20 years.  Notice these secular cycles have averaged about 17 years each going back to a Grand Super Cycle top in 1929.  All bull and bear market cycles within these secular periods have been fully quantified by objective analytic methods, with no exceptions.  This is the essence of OEW.  For simplicity of presentation, the chart summarizes bull and bear cycles down to Primary scale only.

Tony was both, knowledgeable about the Saeculum and had his own method of analyzing the stock market, which he coined Objective Elliott Wave (OEW).  One of Tony’s master strokes was to identify the turnings of the Saeculum using the stock market via his OEW approach.  His conclusion was that in February of 2016 the stock market made a Primary wave II low at SPX 1810, which he also identified to be an inflection point and the beginning of the next turning in the Saeculum.  Tony unified the Saeculum and the stock market via OEW.  Thus, in 2017 when most believed the economy and stock market were late cycle, Tony forecasted the stock market was just beginning an OEW Primary III wave which should last about 17 years (the length of the previous OEW Primary III wave) and coincide with a Saeculum growth cycle.  It is a chart and forecast that has survived the test of time.  At OEW we continue to monitor and hopefully build on the work of Tony Caldaro.  We have recently observed that the previous Primary III wave, which began in 1982, was about 25 years after the Baby Boom birth rate high of 1957.  The next cycle, suggest the current OEW Primary III wave began in 2016 about 25 years after the Millennial peak birth rate of 1989.

What does all this mean?  If our beloved maestro’s thesis is correct, and we think it is, then it projects DOW 100K by 2032/33.

The link to Tony’s original Weekend Report post, you will find below.

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/10/21/weekend-update-627/

indumonthly

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension continues

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  However, we’re still waiting to see if the current trend continues to make new highs, rising enough to not overlap the previous uptrend high, during the next downtrend.  We maintain our bearish alternate count as posted on DOW in the public chart list, though its probability continues to drop as the market goes higher.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend testing possible extension

SPX continued to rally off the previous week’s low and achieved another all-time high at 3183 by early Friday morning.  Our 3180 pivot became both a magnet and stop sign for the price action the week.  This gives the second largest rally for this uptrend of 113 points, without a meaningful pullback.   We can now count seven qualified subdivisions from the downtrend low at 2856.  This latest rally puts pressure on a potential breakout of the inflection point mentioned last week.  We’re still waiting for a break above 3200 to signal an extension of this uptrend.  Until then, our wave status remains unchanged.  Some in our group have suggested an alternate analysis such that Nano wave iv (as shown) was too small to be considered and should be replaced with Nano wave iv at 3070.  This different view suggests the uptrend may be working on the fifth significant wave up off the low.  There’s some merit to this idea as the NAZ may be signaling a similar characteristic, however we’re sticking with our existing metrics until further wave action clears up the picture.  SOX reversed this week to a new uptrend while TRAN remains in a confirmed downtrend, another sign the trend may be strengthening.  Either way, our target for Minute wave iii remains unchanged at 3300 by early next year.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM:

Our short term count continues to align with the medium term subdivisions.  We can count five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154 with a large third wave, which gives a nice impulsive structure to that point.  From there, we have two more waves, 84 points down 3070, followed by 113 points back up to 3183.  It’s unclear whether the recent rally is Nano wave b of an ongoing Micro wave 4 or the beginning of a third wave extension.  Our upper limit for Nano wave b would be 1.618x Nano wave a, which gives 3206.  If/when that region is breached, we will update our wave count accordingly.  SPX ended the week with a negative short term divergence, which suggests another pullback may be on the horizon.

Short term support is at the 3156 and 3121 pivots, while resistance is at the 3180 and 3210 pivots.

spxhourly

GLOBAL MARKETS:

trends

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 781 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 7, 2019

SPX closed last week at 3141 after making a new high at 3154 into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Negative trade news gapped the market lower on Monday, consolidating in the 3110/3120 range. Tuesday saw another opening gap lower, testing 3070 in the first hour before steadily grinding higher into midweek to recapture the 3110/3120 zone. Friday’s robust employment figures drove the market out of congestion to retest the highs, reaching 3151 before finishing the week at 3146.

SPX gained 0.16%/DOW lost 0.13% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.08%/0.10% this week.

On the economic front, the following reports surprised positively or met expectations: Manufacturing PMI 52.6; Services PMI 51.6; weekly jobless claims 203k; factory orders 0.3%; nonfarm payrolls 266k vs 156k, much better than in October; unemployment rate 3.5%; whole sale inventories 0.1% and Consumer Sentiment Index 99.2 up from 96.6 in November. On the downside: ISM Manufacturing Index 48.1%, ADP employment report 67k vs 121k in October, ISM Non-manufacturing Index 53.9% and average hourly earnings 0.2%.

Next week’s highlight is the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  Other than that, we get NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI, weekly jobless claims, retail sales, import prices and business inventories.

 

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension likely underway

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro wave 1 uptrend high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  However, we’re still waiting to see if the current trend continues to make new highs, rising enough to not overlap the previous uptrend high, during the next downtrend.  Until then, we maintain our low probability bearish alternate count as posted on DOW in the public chart list.  Note this week how the 13 EMA on the weekly time frame provided support for Thursday and Friday’s strong rally.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend inflection point

After posting another all-time high during the previous week at 3154, SPX started this week/month with a sharp pullback to 3070.  This ~2.7% decline was the largest counter trend move since October and sets up some interesting possibilities.  The pictured scenario sees 3154 as a completed wave, either Micro wave 3, or a potential Nano wave i from the downtrend low at 2856 in early October.  The Micro wave 3 scenario suggests the current uptrend may be at or close to completion, while the Nano wave i scenario suggests a very bullish extension may be in play.  Consequently, we’ve updated the medium term status as an inflection point.  This inflection point will likely remain until either a downtrend is confirmed, or SPX can rally above 3200 or so.  A few indices such as SOX and TRAN are in confirmed downtrends, which could be a warning sign for the more bearish medium term outlook.  Either way, we continue to project a bull market into 2020 as part of the Minute wave iii subdivision that’s been underway since the 2822 low in early August.  Our nominal target for Minute iii sometime early next year remains unchanged at 3300.  Once the inflection point is resolved, we will update our medium term projection.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM:

The short term count tracks closely with the medium term subdivisions.  We can count five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154 with a large third wave, which gives a nice impulsive structure to that point.  Nano wave v for that sequence fell short of our 3180 target, but was pretty close to fib ratio 0.618x Nano wave i, and stopped right near our 3156 pivot.  From there, we have the largest pullback for the entire trend at 84 points to the 3070 low.  This is typical for a subsequent retrace to exceed the prior fourth wave when the fifth is smaller than the first.  SPX set up a positive divergence off that low on Tuesday, which preceded the strong rally into Friday to another qualified wave at 3151.   Given the inflection point mentioned in the previous section, we’re counting the 3070 low as either Nano wave a of an ongoing Micro wave 4, or possible Nano wave ii which would suggest a rescale of the prior small waves down one degree.  SPX reached extremely overbought level at the highs this week.

Short term support is at the 3121 and 3105 pivots, and resistance is at the 3156 and 3180 pivots.

spxhourly

trends

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 653 Comments

Happy Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving to those celebrating it!

Due to the holiday week there will be no weekend report this week.

Posted in Updates | 544 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

 

November 23, 2019

The SPX started the week quietly at 3118 and ended the day at 3122, little changed from last weeks close at 3120. Tuesday had a gap up opening at 3128, but quickly reversed down to 3115 before a rally back and a close at 3120. On Wednesday, the index started with a gap down to 3114, closed the gap except of one point, and then made its weekly low at 3091, all in the first two and a half hours. After that, it rallied for the rest of the day and finished at 3108. Thursday was a flat with a close at 3104. Friday opened a bit higher at 3111, travelled within 10 points and ended the week at 3110.

SPX/DOW lost 0.33%/0.46% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%/0.52% this week.

On the economic front, weekly unemployment claims were kept at 227K, somewhat worse than the forecasted 218K. Existing home sales were up to 5.46m but missed the forecast of 5.47m. Both, Manufacturing and Service PMI continued to expand at 52.2 / 51.6 respectively, and the Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectation at 96.8 vs 95.7.

LONG TERM: early stages of a breakout

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and the Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2950 level provides support going forward.

However, the DOW all time high last week has not eliminated the alternate count, which can be found in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

spxdaily

SPX extended the rally to reach another all-time high at 3128 by Tuesday morning, then reversed with a 37 point pullback on Wednesday to a low of 3091, before consolidating to end the week at 3110.  We previously established Micro wave 2 complete at the 2856 low in early October.  Micro wave 3 is now ongoing for nearly two months and likely to extend into December.  The pullback this week was the largest since Nano wave ii and was sufficient to qualify another medium term subdivision.  Consequently we’ve updated our count to reflect Nano wave iii complete at 3128.  This gives us two qualified pullbacks for this uptrend of 67 and 37 points and a very nice impulsive structure with a large third wave.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 is unchanged at 3180, which fits nicely with the current wave structure.  It would not be surprising for the recent pullback to extend lower in the range of 60-70 points or so.  A much larger decline back to overlap 3022 would be concerning and suggest something else may be in play.  Minute wave iii is now beginning to exceed the length of Minute wave i, which suggests 3300 is in reach by early next year.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Not much to add here, as the short term count tracks closely with the medium term subdivisions as discussed in the previous section.  Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii = 3128.  Nano wave iv is now ongoing with a retest or extension of the 3091 low still possible.  This week set up a negative divergence at the high from an overbought condition, which preceded the Nano wave iv decline.  A rally back above 3128 will suggest Nano wave iv is complete.  A possible short term target for extension lower would be Nano wave iv = Nano wave ii, which gives another 30 points down to 2961 and right in the next lower pivot range.  We’ll just have to wait and see what the market decides.

Short term support is at the 3105 and 3056 pivots, and resistance is at the 3121 and 3156 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 0.43%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 0.70%.

The Dow Jones Global index (DJW) lost 0.40%, and the NYSE lost 0.39%.

 

COMMODITIES

Bonds (UST) are in a downtrend, but gained 0.32%

Crude oil (WTIC) is in a downtrend, but gained 0.09%

Gold is in a downtrend, and lost 0.33%

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 0.31%.

GBTC (Bitcoin) is in a downtrend and lost 16.99%.

 

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 327 Comments

OEW Lessons

We’ve had quite a number of new students graduate into the OEW Group within the last year and are now contributing great insights into stocks we’ve never looked into before.

If you’d like to become a part of the OEW Group or learn OEW continue reading. If not happy trading!

Over the past four years we have been compiling additional verified and quantified observations in the various markets. As a result, the 2019 lesson plan has been expanded to thirty lessons, with nearly all real time charts.

Objective Elliott Wave, (OEW), is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave within bull and bear markets quantitatively. All markets are driven by long term investor confidence cycles. When the cycle is positive a bull market unfolds, when negative a bear market. The OEW technique not only determines if a market is bullish or bearish, it also determines how far a market has progressed in its current cycle.

Once you learn OEW you will be able to quantitatively research the historical price performance of any asset class, or stock, and determine its current position within its overall long-term trend. Quantified waves never change. Then using shorter term charts, you will be able to determine good entry and exit price areas in the asset you are tracking. It is not complicated. Actually, you will be amazed, after some period of time and dedicated study, how easily you will be able to discern the waves as they unfold. OEW quantitatively identifies all the medium, and long-term waves that create bull and bear markets. Every one! We have been applying this technique, successfully, for nearly 40 years.

Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, called the Dec. 1987 low, the July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, the Oct. 2002 low, the Oct. 2007 top (in early Jan08), the Mar. 2009 bear market low nearly to the day, the 2016-2018 bull market (in mid-2016), and the recent bull market top in 2018.

If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at JohnsonOEW@gmail.com for details. Best to your trading/investing.

Posted in Updates

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

 

November 16 2019

SPX opened the week from a gap down opening at 3080, then rallied up to reach 3087 by Monday’s close, from last weeks close at 3093.  Tuesday has reached 3100 at the first hour, but gave back the gain and close at 3092. Wednesday opened lower at 3084 again then rallied back for the rest of the day to finish at 3094.  Thursday is a flat and closed at 3097. Friday opened with a gap up at 3107 and rallied to the high of the week and finish the week at 3120.

SPX/DOW gained 0.89%/1.17% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.77%/0.72% of the Week.

On the economic front, weekly unemployment claims were up 14K at 225K and worse than forecast of 215K. Industrial Production was down at -0.84%, which was worse than consensus of -0.4%. Producer Price Index was 0.4%, up from -0.3% last month. Core CPI was 2.31% , down from previous month 2.36%.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.   A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2930 level provides support going forward.

However, the DOW all time high this week did not eliminate the alternate count yet, so our alternate count for a potential breakdown is still posted on the DOW in the public chart list. We’re developing the criteria on how and when we could phase out the alternate count.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily.png

SPX continued the rally this week to reach another all-time high at 3120, and appears to be breaking out of the nested 1-2 structure that’s been in place since May. This confirmed Micro wave 2 completed at the 2856 low in October, and Micro wave 3 has been ongoing ever since.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 would be 1.618x Micro wave 1, which gives 3180.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, and we’re expecting the Micro 5 / Minute iii could go as far as 3500 level.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

Not much has changed short term.  We continue to count three waves up from the Micro wave 2 low as Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii in progress.  Nano wave iii is now well beyond the length of Nano wave i and exceeding 2x ratio with that wave, which further confirms the impulse structure. Since it reached our next pivot 3121 area this Friday, the next level to watch for a potential target is 3156. Noted that both the Hourly and Daily RSI has been over bought, a nano wave iv may happen at any time soon, before the nano wave v finished the Micro wave 3 at 3180 level.

Short term support is at the 3105 pivots, and the Resistance is at the 3121 and 3156 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 2.15%, mainly due to the Protest in Hong Kong and disappointed China Q3 data.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.38%.

The Dow Jones Global index (DJW) gained 0.39%, and the NYSE gained 0.64%.

 

COMMODITIES

Bonds (US 10 year) are in a downtrend, but gained 0.57%

Crude oil (WTIC) is in a downtrend, but gained 0.84%

Gold is in a downtrend, but gained 0.38%

The USD is in a downtrend, but lost 0.34%.

GBTC (Bitcoin) is in an uptrend, and lost 5.70%.

 

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Be kind and have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 563 Comments