Tuesday Update

Hi Everyone!

Things are going well. We appreciate all your well wishes. I would like you all to know I am monitoring. I ask that you act like adults and keep it constructive. Debating is always fun but keep it positive and productive!

I’ll keep you updated as things progress.

Thanks!

Posted in Updates | 7 Comments

Weekend Update

Tony is going to be absent for a little while. There are some health concerns we are dealing with as some of you may know. For the moment he does not have access to a computer. I will keep you updated throughout the week with any news. Thank you for your patience and all the well wishes.

Posted in Updates | 148 Comments

Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open choppy day, DOW -55

Overnight the Asian market lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher and the Philly FED higher. The SPX opened at 2718, 4-points below yesterday’s close, then dropped to 2714. After that the market rallied to SPX 2732 by 11am, with 10am posting higher leading indicators. Then the market dropped to SPX 2711 by 2pm. A rebound into the close ended the day at SPX 2720.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and thee NDDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold rose $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.

The market opened lower today and resumed its choppy action for the week. Monday: 2742, Tuesday: 2702, Thursday: 2732, 2711 … A couple of swings with no net progress. Still have just three waves up from SPX 2595, corrective so far, and waiting for a short term breakout/breakdown. All the action from early-April, and SPX 2554, looks corrective. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a negative divergence. Best to your Opex trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening DOW -193

Overnight US index futures were lower, and at 8:30 retail sales and the NY FED were reported higher. Nevertheless the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2715, and continued down to 2704 by 10am. At 10am the Home builders index was reported higher. A rallied followed to SPX 2716 by 10:30, then the market entered a choppy trading range between 2702 and 2715 for the rest of the day. Ending the day with a bounce to SPX 2711.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds lost 24 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold dropped $28, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts, building permits at 8:30, then Industrial production at 9:15.

After a rally on Monday, when the SPX rose to 2742, between the 2731 pivot and the 2750 trend line resistance. The market closed under the pivot on Monday, then gapped down to open Tuesday. Index trading was mostly to the downside on Tuesday, as the 10YR resumed heading lower with yields rising to 7-year highs. The stock market rallied recently as yields hovered slightly above and below 3%. With yields on the rise again, equities are again feeling selling pressure. The three scenarios noted on Thursday are still in tack, and are posted on the SPX hourly/daily and DOW daily charts. The triangle scenario remains the preferred short term count. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2631 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence yesterday, hit oversold today, then bounced higher. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2663. After a gap up opening Monday the market rallied to SPX 2683. On Tuesday it pulled back to SPX 2655. Then it rallied for the rest of the week, reaching SPX 2733 on Friday, and closing at 2728. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.35%, and the NDX/NZ gained 2.70%. Economic reports for the week were nearly all positive. On the downtick: consumer credit. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, export/import prices, plus the budget surplus rose. Next week’s reports include industrial production, the NY/Philly FED, and retail sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

After a 10-month uptrend from March 2017 to January 2017, the market pulled back and has spent the past three months in a relatively wide trading range. The first selloff into a February low looked like the correction could have ended. It did not, as the uptrend that followed was quite choppy. Then after a retest of that low in early-April that opportunity arose again. But so far the same reaction in this uptrend: choppy action. This unfortunately allows for a number short term counts. We have been tracking three, which will be noted below.

In the meantime the early-2016 (five Intermediate wave: one Major wave) bull market continues to unfold. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Int. iii then divided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the falloff 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. After that there was the lengthy 10-month Minor wave 5 uptrend, which ended in January 2018 and completed Int. iii. Int. wave iv has been underway since then. When it concludes Int. v should take the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Sorry, only managed to get this much done over the weekend before another trip to the hospital. Back at home now. Will try the get the Tuesday update done.

cheers!

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening and rally, DOW +197

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported higher. The market gapped up to SPX 2707 at the open. It had closed at SPX 2698 yesterday. The rally continued, with small 2-4 point pullbacks, until the SPX hit 2726 at 1pm. The market pulled back to SPX 2714 by 2:30, and then tried to rally again. The market then rallied to SPX 2723 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.95%. Bonds rose 5 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow export/import prices at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second time this week. The SPX then cleared the 2717 level noted in recent reports. With today’s rally the triangle becomes the preferred count of the three we have been tracking. Triangle: D wave resistance at the 2731 pivot and around 2750, then a drop below 2600. Double three: b wave resistance at the same levels, then a drop to around 2550. Ending diagonal Int. v: choppy activity higher continues, forming a rising wedge, and completing at new all-time highs. Regardless of the final wave pattern still expecting the SPX to make new all-time highs this year. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at the highs, then backed off some in the afternoon. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: US pulls of out Iran nuclear deal, DOW +3

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures traded lower overnight, and the SPX opened 6 points below yesterday’s 2673 close. After a dip to SPX 2662 in the opening minutes the market traded to 2676 by 11:30. Then the SPX dropped to 2660 on rumors the US would pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. When it was announced it was true, the market rallied to SPX 2672 by 2:30. Another decline followed, but this time to SPX 2655 just before 3pm. Quite a choppy day within a 20 point range. Then the market rallied into the close to end the day at SPX 2672.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds dropped 6 ticks, Crude slid $1.00, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow the PPI at 8:30, and wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market traded lower overnight in an anticipation that the US would pull out of the Iran deal. At 2pm today Trump’s uncanny streak of campaign promises kept, notched another one. The market was quite choppy all day and didn’t panic on the news. In fact the economy is just humming along despite all the short term news glitches. Today job openings were reported at a record high, while unemployment is already at 3.9%. No slowdown in the labor market. Monday’s rally to SPX 2683 double topped the 83/84 resistance area noted in the weekend update. And the pullback, thus far, is to today’s low at SPX 2655 (2656 pivot). If tomorrow takes out today’s high, the market could be resuming the rally from SPX 2595. Short term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum was oversold at the low then rebounded above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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