Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

June 8, 2019

The week started at SPX 2751, had a small bounce to 2763 but then hit 2729 by early afternoon, which was to be the low for the week, then closed at 2744.  Tuesday saw a large gap up opening at 2763 and went straight into rally mode throughout Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as the SPX hit 2885, with nothing more than a 19pt pullback at most along the way.  Friday afternoon saw a small drift off the highs to close the week at 2873.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 4.41% while the NDX/NAZ gained 4.06%

Economic news this week had positive results for Factory Orders, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, while ISM Manufacturing and Non-Farm Payrolls declined.

Next week, economic news comes from PPI, Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend likely

spxdaily

We’ve been tracking the current Minor 2 downtrend as three Minute waves and have been looking for the Minute c completion of that pattern.  This week gave us the answer.  After the decline on Monday to 2729, which was right in range of our support target at the 2731 pivot, SPX abruptly reversed and achieved a significant rally of 156 pts to a high 0f 2885 by early Friday.  The strength of this rally was sufficient to trigger our WROC signal, which places high probability that a new uptrend is underway.  Consequently, we upgraded the medium term status and added the tentative marking for a potential Minor 2 bottom.  Although, some near term caution is advised since the rally has already reached logical resistance at the 2884 pivot and the Minute b rally high 2892.  Medium term RSI is overbought as well.  We are now watching the short term waves to see if this rally can impulse in a sustainable fashion.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

As mentioned, Minor 2 most likely completed at 2729.  We have Minute a at 2801 and Minute b at 2892.  Minute a and Minute c completed with similar size and structure, which resulted in a fairly symmetrical three pattern.  As you can see from the 60min chart, the pivots have done well, with Minor 1, Minute a, Minute b and Minor 2 all having turning points within those ranges.  From 2729, the SPX rallied to 2885 without any meaningful pullback.  After such a sizeable move, it would not be unexpected to get a significant pullback in the near term.  So far, our short term tracking can count only one wave up to 2885, so we’ll need more price action to assess this rally further.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  Short term RSI got extremely overbought at the high, then pulled back within the neutral zone by the close.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.34%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 4.49%.

The DJ World index gained 3.39%, and the NYSE gained 4.09%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.35%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 0.92%

Gold is in a uptrend and gained 0.25%

GBTC is in an uptrend and lost 4.79%.

The USD is in an uptrend and lost 1.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 26 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

June 1, 2019

The holiday shortened week started on Tuesday with a rally at the open to SPX 2841 which made the high of the week and then sold off for the rest of the day to 2802. Wednesday gapped down and continued lower into lunchtime hitting 2766, then rallied into the close finishing the day at 2783.  Thursday rallied through the first hour and reached a high of 2799, pulled back in the afternoon to 2777, then rallied into the close at 2789.  Friday saw another gap down, triggered by yet another Tariff Man threat on Mexico to stop illegal immigration flow, which hit the low of the week at 2751 within the first hour of trading, rallied up to 2769 by noon, then reversed in the afternoon to retest the low and close just one point above to finish the week at 2752.

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.62% while the NDX/NAZ lost 2.41%

Economic news this week had positive results for Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller Home Price Index, while MBA Mortgage Applications declined.

Next week, economic news comes from Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and Factory Orders.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

 

spxdaily

The current downtrend, Minor 2 has been ongoing for nearly the entire month of May.  This Minor wave has subdivided into three Minute waves.  Minute waves a and b ended around mid-month at 2801 and 2892 respectively, and Minute c has been underway since then.  Using our short term technique, Minute a appears to have subdivided into 3 smaller waves and we’re expecting Minute c to do the same.  The next Fibonacci target is 2739 where Minute c equal a.  Medium term support is at the 2731 pivot and the 2722 March low, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re counting three Minute waves down for Minor 2.  Minute a consisted of nine waves total, five down to 2836 for Micro a, three up to 2891 with an irregular b wave structure for Micro b, followed by one wave down to 2801 for Micro c.  Minute b was three waves up to 2892 and Minute c has been ongoing ever since.  So far we can count Minute c as nine waves down to Friday’s low, for a potentially completed Micro a.  From there, or maybe slightly lower levels, we would expect at least two more waves to complete an overall double three pattern for Minor 2.  Although these short term counts are speculative, so we will be watching the next rally for signs of a potential bottom.

Short term support is at the 2731 pivot and the 2722 March low.  Resistance is at 2780 and 2798 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart reached the most oversold this week since Feb and closed the week with a positive divergence, which suggests a short term bounce should be forthcoming.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 0.61%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 2.66%.

The DJ World index lost 1.85%, and the NYSE lost 2.52%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 1.27%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 8.75%

Gold is in a uptrend and gained 2.14%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 3.36%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.19%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

 

 

Posted in Updates

Weekend Update

Due to the holiday weekend there will be no weekend report.

Comments will be shutdown until further notice.

Have a good trading week.

Posted in Updates

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Provided by the OEW Group

May 18, 2019

The week started with a large gap down of 41 points to open at SPX 2840 and sold off into lunchtime where the low for the week was made at 2801, before a bounce and then close at 2812. Tuesday gapped up and rose into lunch hitting 2853, then gave back some of those gains into the close finishing at 2834.  Wednesday gave a gap down opening of 14pts and hit 2815 within the first hour, from that point the market then rallied and managed to reach 2892 by Thursday lunchtime with no more than an 8pt pullback along the way, but the afternoon session saw some of those gains given back, hitting 2871 and closing at 2876.  Friday saw a gap down and hit 2854 within the first hour, then rallied to 2885 but gave back nearly all of those gains closing the week at 2860

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 0.76% while the NDX/NAS lost 1.27%

Economic news this week had positive reports from Building Permits and Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index and negative reports from Core Retails Sales and Export Price Index.

Next week, economic news comes from Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, New Homes Sales and Core Durable Goods Orders.  In addition, on Monday at 7pm (ET) FED Chair Powell speaks.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend

spxdaily

This week the inflection point was resolved as the SPX, NAZ and NDX did indeed follow the DOW as expected with downtrend confirmations.  For all three of these indices, it’s the first downtrend since the Major 2 low in December.  After this week’s action, the count has become clearer with Minor 1 at the recent high after what looks like an ending diagonal Minute v that has been ongoing since early Feb.  Minor 1 started in late December at 2347 and took just over 4 months to complete, totalling 607pts.  Minor 2 has been underway for the past couple of weeks and made a low at 2801 on Monday.  This could be all of Minor 2 or just Minute a.  The DOW count remains unchanged with an irregular Minor 2 correction as posted last week for our alternate count.  Minor 1 top at the Feb high, Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  With all 4 indices now aligned, once Minor 2 completes, Minor 3 should carry the markets to new highs once again.

indudaily

 

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re now counting Minute v of Minor 1 as an ending diagonal.  Since Minor 1 topped, Minor 2 has declined 5.2% which is sufficient to satisfy Minor wave degree correction.  Looks like last Friday’s rally turned out to be just another b wave of the ongoing correction from Minor 1 top.  From Monday’s low at 2801, we can count 3 small waves up, 2853>2815>2892, followed by choppy price action on Friday.  This has been the largest rally since Minor 2 began, but it fell short of clearing the 61.8% retracement level at 2896.  More price action is needed before feeling confident Minor 3 is underway.  If 2853 is overlapped before further upside, then the rally remains corrective and suggests Minor 2 may still be unfolding.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots.  Resistance is at 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart is approaching oversold territory with the daily chart neutral after hitting its most oversold reading this year on Monday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 3.48%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.11%.

The DJ World index lost 0.85%, and the NYSE lost 1.02%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.47%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.96%

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 0. 91%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 13.02%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.72%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 443 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

 Provided by the OEW Group

May 11, 2019

Tariff Man and volatility came back this week!  After a Sunday night tweet threatening additional tariffs on China, the SPX gapped down to 2898 on Monday.  Buyers drove price back up to 2937 by the close, but Tuesday saw another gap down and trend day falling to 2863 before a late day ramp into the close.  A small rally continued on Wednesday pushing the SPX near 2900.  Traders sold into the close and another gap down open occurred on Thursday with the SPX falling to 2836.  An oversold rally to 2876 led to another gap down on Friday to the week’s low of 2825.  The markets rallied again with news that the US is giving China 3-4 weeks to come to an agreement or face new tariffs.  The SPX rallied to 2891 and closed at 2882.

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NDX/NAS lost 3.2%.

Economic news was light this week with positive reports from JOLTS – Job Openings and negative reports from PPI, core CPI and CPI.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Downtrend inflection point

spxdaily

This week DOW led the weakness with a confirmed downtrend, but was the only one of our four main US indices to do so.  We would normally expect at least SPX to follow, but until that happens, markets remain at an inflection point.  As a result, we updated the charts to show our primary and alternate counts on SPX and DOW respectively.  Our primary count remains a subdividing Minor 3 wave in progress, with Minute i at the recent high.  We can count 5 waves up from the March low to a slightly failed double top.  Notice the failure is on an intraday basis, but the close is equal.  Minute ii is ongoing and may have found bottom with a nice reversal on Friday.

indudaily

Our alternate count is a subdivided Minor 2 wave, with Minute a at the March low, an irregular Minute b at the April high and Minute c in progress.  If DOW can sustain the reversal and hold above March lows, then this alternate count may be eliminated.  There is another variation of this alternate that’s on our watch list.  We will report on it in the future if/when price dictates.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

As mentioned, we’re counting Minute i from the 2722 March low as 5 waves up to the slightly failed intraday top.  This suggests the Minute i impulse subdivided into 5 Micro waves 2852>2788>2954>2901>2948.  From there, Minute ii is underway and can be counted as 7 waves down which gives a double 3 pattern into a divergent low, 2898>2937>2863>2898>2836>2876>2825.  This signals possibility of a significant rally to follow.  Pending resolution of the inflection point, this could be just another b wave or the beginning of Minute iii.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, 2825 and 2800.  Resistance is at 2900 and the 2884 and 2929 pivots.  The SPX 60-minute chart shows a positive divergence at today’s low and resulted in a 50-point rally.  The daily chart still shows price as oversold.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 5.8%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 2.4%.

The DJ World index lost 2.7%, and the NYSE lost 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.4%

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.3%%

GBTC is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.1%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week!

 

 

Posted in Updates | 797 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Update

Brought to you by the OEW Private Group

May 4, 2019

A volatile week with a quantified pullback.  The SPX rose to a new recovery high on Monday at 2950 followed by a gap down opening on Tuesday and sell off to 2924.  Price quickly rallied off that low and made a new all-time high on Wednesday at 2954.  Sellers hit the market after the FOMC announcement with the markets closing on the low.  Selling continue on Thursday and reached 2901.  Friday saw a gap up on the NFP report with price holding into the close at 2945.

For the week, the SPX/NDX/NAS all gained 0.2%, and the DOW lost 0.2%.  The standout this week was the Russell 2000 which was up 1.4%.

Most economic reports were negative, including:  S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, ADP Employment Change, construction spending, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the ISM Services Index.  Positive reports were personal spending, consumer confidence, and the Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

SPXdaily

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  New all-time highs were hit per our expectation.

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low is subdividing into Micro waves with Micro 1 high at 2830, Micro 2 low at 2788, Micro 3 high at 2954 with Micro 4 tentatively ending at 2901.  Micro 5/Minute iii will lead to new highs in the coming days/weeks.

Short term support is at 2900 and the 2929 and 2884 pivots with resistance at the 2957 and 2995 pivots.  The SPX ended the week overbought on the 60-minute chart and above neutral on the daily chart.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 1.2%.

The DJ World index gained 0.3%, and the NYSE gained 0.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and were down 0.5%

Crude oil remains in an uptrend but lost 2.4%

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 1.3%%

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 17%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.5%.

 

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Have a good week

 

Posted in Updates | 813 Comments

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

April 27, 2019

This week opened at SPX 2898 and made the low for the week at 2896 within the first hour.  The market then had a steady rally up to 2936 by Tuesday lunchtime, before drifting off slightly into close.  Wednesday morning saw a slight higher high at 2937 before a larger pullback of 24pts occurred into Thursday morning followed by a swift move back up to 2933.  Friday spent the day within Thursdays range until the last hour when it broke out to close at the weeks high of 2940.

For the week, the SPX gained 1.2%, NAS/NDX was up 1.78% but the DOW lost 0.06%

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in New Home Sales & GDP (Q1).  There were negative reports for Existing Home Sales & Core Durable Goods Orders.

Next week’s report will highlight the CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Meeting with FED Interest Rate Decision, Non Farm Payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to 1.2 (April 12th data).

ECRI

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

SPXwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  With NAZ and NDX already achieving all-time highs, SPX Minor 3 is expected to follow in the coming days/weeks.  This week the SPX found resistance at the 2929 pivot until the final hour and closed just 1pt off the all time high.

SPXdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.  Since Micro 3 began at 2788 there hasn’t been a pullback larger than 26pts, typical resilient 3rd wave action.

SPXhourly

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots with resistance at the 2957 and 2995 pivots.  The week finished with the daily RSI showing a negative divergence, and the hourly in oversold territory.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were up 0.32%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.11%.

The DJ World index gained 0.42%, and the NYSE gained 0.53%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were up 0.56%

Crude oil remains in an uptrend but lost 1.2%

Gold is in a downtrend but was up 1%

Bitcoin is in an uptrend but lost 2.23%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.59%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

If you’d like to become a part of the OEW Group and learn OEW continue reading. If not happy trading!

Over the past four years we have been compiling additional verified and quantified observations in the various markets. As a result, the 2019 lesson plan has been expanded to thirty lessons, with nearly all real time charts.

Objective Elliott Wave, (OEW), is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave within bull and bear markets quantitatively. All markets are driven by long term investor confidence cycles. When the cycle is positive a bull market unfolds, when negative a bear market. The OEW technique not only determines if a market is bullish or bearish, it also determines how far a market has progressed in its current cycle.

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If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at JohnsonOEW@gmail.com for details. Best to your trading/investing.

Posted in Updates | 506 Comments