Weekend Report

Good Morning.

Hope all is well. A few notes before the Weekend Report.

I’ve added a like feature and a rating system to the comments. Hopefully this helps reduce the bickering. Feel free to vote on things you appreciate and don’t appreciate. It’ll also show me what is “valued” content and what is not. As for previous post limit rule that keeps getting brought up. I do not have the time to count posts and scold people when they pass their post limit. I’m looking into some plugins to potentially help with that. The site will be evolving and changing and more features will be added as I have the time.  For those of you who are attempting to use my father as a weapon against me you will be immediately banned if it happens again. I will say this one more time. Having the comments open does nothing for me, them remaining open is only for you who comment here. Keep that in mind when picking fights with each other or me.

Be Kind and have a good week.

Thanks to the OEW Group for providing this weekend report!

Weekend Report – April 13, 2019

This week was largely a consolidation period with most of the indices making marginal new highs in choppy trade.  After a quick move down to 2881 on Monday morning, the SPX rallied to 2896 in the afternoon.  Tuesday saw a gap down and the weekly low made in the afternoon at 2873.  Price traded in range of 20 points on Wednesday and Thursday.  On Friday, the SPX gapped up and rose to 2911 on earnings and merger news.  The SPX closed the week at 2906.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 0.3% and the NAS/NDX was up 0.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI and Core PPI.  There were negative reports for factory orders, JOLTS – job openings, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

Next week’s report will highlight the Empire State Manufacturing report, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, Fed’s Beige Book, and Leading Indicators.

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index continues to improve to -0.7 (April 5th data).

erciwkly

LONG TERM: Uptrend

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary II low in February 2016.  Major wave 1 high occurred in October 2018 and Major wave 2 low in December 2018.  Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We maintain our SPX wave count with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722 with Minor 3 underway.  As expected, Minor 3 is subdividing with Minute i at 2852 and Minute ii at 2785 with Minute iii underway.  Minor 3 will extend higher to all time highs in the coming weeks.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM

We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii.  The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60-minute SPX chart with Micro 3 still underway.

spxhourly

Short term support is at 2900 and the pivots of 2884 and 2858.  Resistance is at the 2929 and 2995 pivots.  Negative divergences exist on daily SPX charts. SPX hourly was reset with drop on Tuesday, when RSI moved below 30.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) were flat.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) were up 0.9%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%, and the NYSE gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend and were flat.

Crude oil remains in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

Gold is in a downtrend and was flat.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 1.3%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | 388 Comments

Weekend Report

Hello All,

Thanks goes to the OEW Group for Providing this weekend update!

This week saw the SPX/DOW/NAS/NDX all move higher. The SPX gapped up on Monday to open the week at 2849 and moved higher for the rest of the day. Tuesday saw a pullback from 2873 to 2859, then the rally continued with the SPX hitting 2885 early on Wednesday but fell to 2865 later in the day. Thursday saw consolidation between Wednesdays range. Friday the market moved higher to 2893 and closed there at the weeks high.

For the week, the SPX/Dow gained 2% and the NAS/NDX was up 2.7%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the ISM Manufacturing Index, auto sales, truck sales and Nonfarm Payrolls. There were negative reports for retail sales, construction spending, durable order, ADP Employment Change, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

Next week’s report will highlight factory orders, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, JOLTS – job openings, CPI, PPI, the FOMC minutes, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

 

LONG TERM: Uptrend

Most of the foreign indices we track had a strong week, with China, Germany and Greece showing the largest gains.

China SSEC up 5.0%

Greece ATG up 4.6%

German DAX up 4.2%

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

SPXwkly

 

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

We’ve been tracking three high probability counts waiting for the markets to give direction, noting the divergence between the Dow and other major indices. This week gave us the answer as the Dow rallied to new recovery highs, the SPX continued higher, and the NAS/NDX continued to lead the way higher. Thus, we updated the charts aligning the Dow with the SPX wave count showing the Minor 1 top at 2817 with Minor 2 ending at 2722 with Minor 3 underway. We expect Minor 3 will extend higher to all time highs in the coming weeks.

 

indudaily

 

spxdaily

We’ve noted the strength in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 indices. Today, we’d like to highlight the strength of the Semiconductor Index. This is a key industry sector as it often leads the general market. The SOX topped in early 2018, well before the general markets top in late September/early October. We’ve been anticipating December as a possible 2 year cycle low and a tentative B wave completed.  This week we got confirmation of that as SOX rallied to a new all-time high.

 

soxwkly

SHORT TERM

From the Minor 2 low at SPX 2722, we count a single trend rally to 2852 followed by an irregular B wave correction (2812>2860>2785). We are counting the high at 2852 as Minute i and the low at 2785 as Minute ii. The rally off the Minute ii low also appears to be subdividing into Micro waves as shown on the 60 minute SPX chart.

spxhourly

Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 and 2995 pivots. The week ended with a negative divergence on the 60 minute SPX chart.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were up as much as 5.0%.

European markets were up from 2.3 to 4.6%.

The DJ World index gained 2.1%, and the NYSE gained 1.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend with the 10 year treasury losing 0.45%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.9%.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 22.4%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.37%.

 

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Best wishes to all

Posted in Updates | 618 Comments

Weekend Updates

Hello All!

Hopefully you’ve had a positive trading week!

Some updates

There will be no weekend report this week. The writers are off this week and are hopefully getting much deserved rest.

The stock charts are being diligently updated as time allows.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Also, I’m interested in everyone’s input on what could be done going forward.  Anything from layout to design, ease of comment reading, potential guest reports, as well as things that might not have crossed my mind yet for the blog moving into the future. Please comment below any suggestions.

We’ve had quite a number of new students graduate into the OEW Group within the last few weeks as well as quite a few of them complete the course already and are now contributing great insights into stocks we’ve never looked into before.

If you’d like to become a part of the OEW Group or learn OEW continue reading. If not happy trading!

Over the past four years we have been compiling additional verified and quantified observations in the various markets. As a result, the 2019 lesson plan has been expanded to thirty lessons, with nearly all real time charts.

Objective Elliott Wave, (OEW), is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave within bull and bear markets quantitatively. All markets are driven by long term investor confidence cycles. When the cycle is positive a bull market unfolds, when negative a bear market. The OEW technique not only determines if a market is bullish or bearish, it also determines how far a market has progressed in its current cycle.

Once you learn OEW you will be able to quantitatively research the historical price performance of any asset class, or stock, and determine its current position within its overall long-term trend. Quantified waves never change. Then using shorter term charts, you will be able to determine good entry and exit price areas in the asset you are tracking. It is not complicated. Actually, you will be amazed, after some period of time and dedicated study, how easily you will be able to discern the waves as they unfold. OEW quantitatively identifies all the medium, and long-term waves that create bull and bear markets. Every one! We have been applying this technique, successfully, for nearly 40 years.

Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, called the Dec. 1987 low, the July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, the Oct. 2002 low, the Oct. 2007 top (in early Jan08), the Mar. 2009 bear market low nearly to the day, the 2016-2018 bull market (in mid-2016), and the recent bull market top in 2018.

If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at JohnsonOEW@gmail.com for details. Best to your trading/investing.

Posted in Updates | 634 Comments

Weekend Update

Posted on March 23, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

The SPX, NAS, and NDX reached higher levels this week while the Dow remained under the recent recovery highs.  The SPX rose to 2852 on Tuesday but then fell to 2812 before the FOMC decision on Wednesday.  The Fed announcement caused an afternoon rally to 2842, but price declined again into the close.  Price gapped lower on Thursday’s open with the SPX falling to 2817, but buyers stepped in quickly and the SPX rallied to the weekly high of 2860.  The SPX gapped down on Friday, fell to 2802, recovered in the afternoon, but sold off to 2801 into the close.  Quite a volatile day and week!

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 1.1% and the NAS/NDX lost 0.3%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in the Philadelphia Fed Index, Leading Indicators, and existing home sales.  Factory orders and the NAHB Housing Market Index were unchanged.  The FOMC held rates steady and announced the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction in September.

Next week’s report will highlight housing starts, building permits, pending home sales, new home sales, consumer confidence, personal income, personal spending, Core PCE Price Index, Q4 GDP estimate, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.  The ECRI WLI update has not been published this week.

LONG TERM: Uptrend

The foreign indices we track were mixed this week with considerable weakness in Europe and Brazil.  The Indian Nifty 50 up 0.3%, the German DAX down 2.8%, the French CAC 40 down 2.5%, the Brazilian BVSP down 5.5%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 up 0.8%, the Hang Seng Stock Exchange up 0.3%, and the South Korean KOSPI up 0.4%.

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend, likely near-term weakness

We continue to track the three highest probability wave counts as discussed in last weekend’s report.  The divergence between Dow and other major indices continues, so we favor our conservative outlook of a complex Minor 2 correction underway as shown on the Dow chart.   Choppy price action suggests a corrective rally off early March lows and weakness into the close supports this view.  Should the Dow reverse course and rally to new recovery highs, this wave count may be eliminated.  Minor wave labeling remains tentative until further price action is developed.

INDUdaily

The daily SPX chart shows the near-term bullish wave count with Minor 1 and Minor 2 complete at 2817 and 2722, respectively with Minor 3 underway.  Early price action off the 2722 low was strong but has since become choppy.  Strength in NAS and NDX has been supporting this wave count as well.  Sharp reversal on Friday was largest pullback of the rally so far and sufficient to qualify another wave, suggesting Minor 3 may be subdividing.

SPXdaily

 

SHORT TERM

For SPX, we can count three small waves up to this week’s high, 2852>2812>2860.  This suggests either a corrective B wave rally, which supports our primary view of an ongoing Minor 2 correction, or an irregular subdivision for Minor 3 as noted on the SPX daily chart.  Last week’s count showing Micro 3 of Minute v was eliminated due to overlap of Micro 1 and has diminished the possibility of a Minor 1 extension.  Until SPX clears 2876 and/or the Dow reaches new recovery highs, trend weakness remains on the table.

We will continue to track all of these probable wave counts, and again suggest patience while the markets remove the uncertainty through additional price action.  We believe this uncertainty will be resolved in the coming days or weeks.

Short term support is at the 2798, 2780, and 2731 pivots and 2722 low.  Resistance is at the 2835, 2858, and 2929 pivots.  The momentum ended the week neutral with a positive divergence on the 60 minute SPX chart.

We’re in process of updating charts in the Public Chart List with current OEW status and hope to have that completed in the near future.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were up approx. 0.5%.

European markets were down 2.5+%.

The DJ World index lost 0.6%, and the NYSE lost 1.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds yields are in a downtrend with the 10 year treasury falling 5%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.9%.

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.7%.

Bitcoin is in an uptrend and gained 1.6%.

The USD is in an uptrend and was flat.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Best wishes to all

Posted in Updates | 566 Comments

Weekend Report

The Weekend Update

posted on March 16, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

Report

The SPX, NAS, and NDX all reversed last week’s losses of 2% and rallied to new recovery highs.  The Dow lagged and only recovered approximately 62% of last week’s losses.  The SPX gapped up to 2748 at Monday’s open and rallied to 2798 on Tuesday.  After a short-lived pullback to 2788 into the close on Tuesday, price continued higher to 2821 on Wednesday.  A late day sell off on Wednesday was followed by more weakness to 2803 on Thursday morning.  Price remained in a range for the rest of Thursday and then gapped up again on Friday and rallied to the week’s high of 2831 and closed at 2822.

For the often volatile Options Expiration week, the SPX gained 2.9%, the NAS/NDX gained 3.9%, while the Dow gained 1.6%.

On the economic front, we saw an uptick in retail sales, NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI, PPI, construction spending, industrial production, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and JOLTs job openings.  On the downtick:  core CPI and core PPI, durable goods, new home sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, and capacity utilization.

Next week’s report will highlight NAHB Housing Market Index, factory orders, the FOMC rate decision, the Philadelphia Fed Index, Leading Indicators, and existing home sales.

The ECRI WLI continues to improve and rose this week from -3.7 to -2.9.

1ECRI

LONG TERM: Uptrend

We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months.  All of the foreign indices we track were positive for the week.  The Indian Nifty 50 up 3.6%, the German DAX up 1.8%, the French CAC 40 up 3.3%, the Brazilian BVSP up 3.8%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 up 3.6%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC) up 2.7%, the Hang Seng Stock Exchange up 2.8%, and the South Korean KOSPI up 1.9%.

spxweekly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend, possible near-term weakness

We count a five wave impulsive rally from the Major 2 low at SPX 2347.  Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817.  We tentatively labeled the 2817 high as Minor 1 on last weekend’s report, thus we were expecting a correction for Minor 2.  Indeed, the SPX/Dow broke support levels and fell 3+% in a three wave move during the correction.   From the 2722 low, SPX has risen to 2831 while the Dow has not reached new recovery highs.  This divergence among the indexes tells us to be conservative in our market view and consider that a complex Minor 2 correction may still be underway.  This conservative market view is shown on the Dow chart below and will remain our primary count awaiting further price action.

INDUdaily

We continue to track the more near-term bullish count, shown on the daily SPX chart below, with the Minor 1 top at 2817 and Minor 2 bottom at 2722.  This count suggests Minor 3 is currently underway.  See additional comments in the short-term section regarding these wave counts.

SPXdaily

SHORT TERM

From the Minor 1 high at 2817 we saw a three wave decline to the SPX 2722 low (2768>2796>2722).  We expected that low to be the minute a wave which would be followed by a minute b retracement rally and another decline in minute c to end Minor 2.  Instead the SPX has rallied in one wave from 2722 to the week’s high at 2831.

The SPX rally could be part of an irregular b wave with a wave c decline to follow.  If this view is correct, the Dow price should fall below last week’s low.  The SPX and Dow will likely realign during this correction.  If the Dow rallies to new highs before declining below last week’s lows, this count will be eliminated.  Also, if the SPX rises over 2876, this count will be dropped.

The strength in the SPX and NAS/NDX indices also suggest near-term bullish wave counts.  These include 1) Minor 2 is complete at SPX 2722 with Minor 3 underway which will likely subdivide as well (shown above on the SPX daily chart), and 2) The impulsive rally from SPX 2347 continues with an additional extension of the Minute v wave into Micro waves (shown below on the 60 minute chart).  Clearly, we will need to see the Dow rally to new highs for these bullish counts.

SPXhourly

We will track all of these most probable wave counts.  From time to time, the market action causes uncertainty as to the next move.  Patience is required during these times to allow the markets to remove that uncertainty.

Short term support is at the 2798, 2780, and 2731 pivots and resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots.  The SPX continues to display a negative divergence on the 60 minute chart.  The RSI 5 on the daily chart does not show a divergence although it is now overbought.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were up 2-3%.

European markets were up 1.5-3.0%.

The DJ World index gained 2.7%, and the NYSE gained 2.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but lost 1.2%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.5%.

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.5%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 3.7%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 1.0%.

Best wishes to all

Posted in Updates | 663 Comments

Weekend Updates

The Weekend Update

posted on March 09, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro

Report

The SPX gapped up on Monday to start the week at 2815 and immediately hit the high for the week at 2817.  The market then began to sell off and hit 2768 by lunch before climbing higher into 2793.  Tuesday was a more stable day, trading down to 2783 in the morning session then a gradual climb up to 2796 by close.  Then on Wednesday the selloff continued as price moved down to 2770 and on Thursday selling saw Mondays low taken out, 2742 was hit early on, bounced back up to 2761 by lunch, back down to 2739 in the afternoon and a bounce into 2750 at close.  Friday gapped down and hit 2722 early in the session, bounced up to 2736, returned to test 2723 before finishing the week at 2743

For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NAS/NDX lost 2.0%.

On the economic front, we saw uptick for ISM Services, New Home Sales, and Jobless Claims.  On the downtick the Nonfarm had a big miss, 20k against the forecast of 181k

Next week’s report will be highlighted by durable goods, CPI/PPI and retail sales

The ECRI WLI was up this week from -4.2 to -3.7

1ECRI

 

LONG TERM: uptrend strong probability

We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months.  The Nifty (India) advanced this week while most other markets were in sell mode.  The Dax (German) and other European indices were lower along with the BVSP (Brazil), Nikkei (Japan) and Kospi (Korea)

SPXwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Since what we believe is the Major 2 low, we count a possible 5 waves up complete.  Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817.  We have been producing a Weekend Report for the OEW group and mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Minute v looked to be subdividing and that did indeed happen.  We label this subdivision as Micro 1 at 2762, Micro 2 at 2731, Micro 3 at 2813, Micro 4 at 2775 and Micro 5 at 2817.  The action possibly wrapped up Minor 1 on Monday and we believe Minor 2 has been underway since.  Several of criteria we were looking at to help confirm have now been met, like a break of Micro 4 at 2775 and largest pullback of the UT from 2347.  This data suggests that Minor 2 is underway and likely to confirm a DT in the coming weeks.

SPXdaily

 

SHORT TERM

SPXhourly

The action this week saw Minor 1 tentatively complete at the previously mentioned 2815 area of resistance which had capped both Int B and Minor B of Int A.

On the squiggle chart this week we have three waves down, 2817>2768>2796>2722 so far.  When this completes it will likely be Minute A, we expect to see a Minute B rally before another decline for Minute C to complete Minor 2.

Short term support is at SPX 2731 and the 2656 pivots with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.  There is currently positive divergence on the 60 minute chart with the daily chart now oversold.

 

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were down on the week and some lost as much as 2.5%.

European markets were down as well and lost 1.5%.

The DJ World index lost 2%, and the NYSE lost 2.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 1.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.

Gold is in a downtrend but ended flat%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 1.9%.

The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.

 

Best wishes to all

Thanks goes to the OEW Group for pulling this together.

We love you Dad.

 

Posted in Updates | 737 Comments

Rules & Update

Some Rules

I will quote my father on a few of these as well as add my own and clarification if need be.

Some will have noticed posts are being deleted and edited.

“Comments should be about the various markets, and not politics, religion, etc.”  If it can directly impact the market it will be allowed. However personal opinions about people are not. Keep it civil and professional.

“Those that are trolls, self-promoters, or attack others are not welcome.”  Trolls Useless posts will be deleted and user will be banned.  Self promoters. Moderators are looking at every link posted. If it’s linked to a promotional website it will be edited or deleted. There are no ads of any kind of this website. If you would like for this website to promote you or your business contact me for going rates. Attacks will be deleted. If user has a history of attacking all posts by them will be put on an approval basis.

” If your comment gets deleted you did not follow the rules. If none of your comments are being posted, you have not only broken the rules but lost your privilege to post.”

“We encourage and respect all well-reasoned alternative viewpoints, and expect all participants will do so as well. Please keep in mind this is a market blog, and not a social media blog. Posts take time to read. Do not waste everyone’s time with frivolous comments. “

Do not ignore or disrespect these rules.

Updates

Weekend Report

Happy News! Sometime this weekend the first OEW Weekend Update Report from the private group will be posted! The group is still fine tuning things so please be patient.

Those Requesting Lessons

A follow-up email will be sent out this weekend with more concrete details on how we will be going forward. If you have sent me an email or a message to my father’s email you will be getting follow up email this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone and be kind!

 

Posted in Updates | 8 Comments