Weekend Update

Tony is going to be absent for a little while. There are some health concerns we are dealing with as some of you may know. For the moment he does not have access to a computer. I will keep you updated throughout the week with any news. Thank you for your patience and all the well wishes.

Posted in Updates | 185 Comments

Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +71

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were mostly higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 2629 close. That was the low of the day. After that the market worked its way up to SPX 2641 by 1pm. The market then pulled back to SPX 2633 by 2:30. At 3pm consumer credit was reported higher. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2637.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.45%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2646 and 2656 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls at 8:30, then consumer sentiment and wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market made the low at open today, then rallied to SPX 2641 in the afternoon. This represents a scant 16 point rally from early yesterday’s double bottom at SPX 2625. And it looks a bit choppy. Just an oversold B wave rally pivot to pivot? We continue to see evidence that an Int. iv correction is underway. Would want to see the SPX break 2625 before increasing the probability of that occurring. Thus far, from the Monday/Tuesday selloff: a Wednesday/Thursday B wave rally. Short term support is at the 2632 pivot and SPX 2606, with resistance at the 2646 and 2656 pivots. Short term momentum ended at neutral after being overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped ?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 176 Comments

Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then consolidation day, DOW -40

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.6%. Europe opened lower but ended mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the ADP was reported lower. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2630 close. That was the low for the day. After a rally to SPX 2632 by 10am, the market retested 2625 by 10:30. After that the SPX rallied to 2634 by 11:30, only to pullback to 2626 by 12:30. Another rally to SPX 2634 ended with a pullback to 2629 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds rose 8 ticks, Crude lost $1.65, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened at SPX 2625, bounced, then retested 2625 before edging higher. Have seen subtle double bottoms like this hold. Especially since the decline from SPX 2665 is within one point of a 38.2% pullback of the advance from SPX 2557. The advance off the SPX 2625 low, however, was not impressive: 2634-2626-2634. But have seen this type of churning at a low set up a higher opening the next day. Key level going forward is obviously SPX 2625. Overall, it still looks like traders are in profit taking mode which could lead to the Int. iv correction. All they might need is some sort of catalyst to push things lower. If so would expect a 100 – 120 point decline from the all-time high for Int. iv. The two fours: Minute iv and Micro 4 should provide support. Short term support is at SPX 2625 and SPX 2606, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Short term momentum ended above neutral after hitting oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 98 Comments

Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: flat open, bounce, then decline, DOW -109

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 the trade deficit was reported larger. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2639 close. Then rallied to SPX 2649 just past 11am. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported lower. After that the market resumed yesterday’s pullback. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2628, then bounced to 2630 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold lost $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15.

The market opened flat today, tried to rally, then rolled over heading lower, led by the DOW. Yesterday, as noted, the DOW resisted the decline. Today it led. We still count five waves up from Minute iv at SPX 2557: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2665. And now this 37-point decline. With this uptrend ongoing since April, we have seen these types of declines before, that ended up being just pullbacks. This one feels a bit different as the market is coming off extremely overbought levels, and three of the four FANG stocks are already in downtrends. If the DOW continues to lead/participate would think Intermediate wave iv is underway. Short term support is at SPX 2606 and the 2594 pivot, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped?

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 153 Comments

Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then pullback, DOW +58

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2662 at the open. In the first few minutes the SPX hit 2665 and then started to pullback. At 10am factory orders were reported lower. By 11am the market had hit SPX 2651 and tried to rally. The rally was short-lived as the SPX bounced to 2658 by 12:30. Then the market started to pullback again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2639 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.10%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2646 and 2656 pivots. Tomorrow: the trade deficit at 8:30, then ISM at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today on the heels of the Senate passing their version of Tax Reform. The SPX cleared the previous high 2658 at the open as it rallied to 2665. The fifth quantified wave we had been expecting arrived: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2665. After that the NDX/NAZ sold off, and went negative, taking the rest of the market lower. The five waves up from SPX 2557 could have been all of Minute v. The SPX daily chart has a negative divergence, but the DOW has negative divergences hourly, daily and weekly. And it has sort of been the leader of late. If the DOW starts to sell off then the uptrend may well be over. Short term support is at the 2632 pivot and SPX 2606, with resistance at the 2646 and 2656 pivots. Short term momentum was heading toward oversold at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 109 Comments

Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2602. After a quiet open on Monday the market started making new highs every day. Aided by a gap up opening on Thursday, the SPX reached 2658. Then the market experienced a sharp  pullback to SPX 2606 Friday morning, before rebounding to end the week at SPX 2642. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.2%, but the NDX/NAZ lost 0.85%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: Chicago PMI, auto sales and ISM. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, Q3 GDP, personal income/spending, the CPI, construction spending, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls.

LONG TERM: uptrend

The Major wave 1, of Primary wave III, bull market continues to make upside progress. In fact, the SPX is now up 18% for the year and 47% since the February 2016 low. Best market performance since 2013.

The wave count from the February 2016 SPX 1810 low remains unchanged. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Intermediate wave iii subdivided. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5, of Int. iii, has been underway since then. When Minor 5/Int. iii does conclude, there will be an Int. iv correction. After that, Int. v will carry the market to new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This lengthy Minor 5 uptrend began in April at SPX 2329, and has been quite complex. Naturally it divided into five Minute waves, and was not that difficult to track until Micro wave 3 of Minute iii, which lasted two months. Thus far, as noted on the chart, Minute waves i through iv have completed: Minute i and ii in June/July and Minute iii and iv in November. Minute v  has been underway since the SPX 2557 low.

Last weekend we discussed the possibility of the market running into resistance in the SPX 2630’s. We used three parameters: wave relationships within the trend, the overall length of uptrends in this bull market, and a Fibonacci cluster (2632, 2646, 2656). This week the market paused at the 2632 pivot for a day, then ran right through the 2646 pivot to the 2656 pivot. This relentless uptrend is now the longest of the bull market. Medium term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2646 and 2656 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The short term count heading into last week was three waves up from the SPX 2557 low: 2590-2578-2604 thus far. This week the SPX rallied to 2635, pulled back to 2620 on Wednesday, and then rose to 2658 on Thursday. Five waves? It’s possible. That Wednesday pullback, however, did not quantify as a wave. Quantified waves suggest: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2642 thus far. Another new high to complete five? Regardless of the outcome the possibility of an Int. iii top has occurred.

Short term support is at the 2632 pivot and SPX 2606, with resistance at the 2646 and 2656 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed and lost 0.9%.

European markets were mostly lower and lost 1.0%.

The DJ World index gained 0.2%, and the NYSE gained 1.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in an uptrend but lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude is also in an uptrend and lost -1.0%.

Gold remains in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 0.1%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: factory orders at 10am. Tuesday: ISM services. Wednesday: the ADP. Thursday: jobless claims and consumer credit. Friday: monthly payrolls (est. +195k), consumer sentiment and wholesale inventories.

FOOTNOTE

While posting this daily blog for over 12 years, I was proud of rarely missing a post and having only one period (4-days) without a post. This year, however, some medical complications have arisen. Not getting any younger. Hopefully things will settle down in the weeks/months ahead. In the meantime, don’t be surprised if I miss a few more posts every now and then. Thank you all for your concern and well wishes.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in weekend update | Tagged , , , | 284 Comments

Monday update

SHORT TERM: flat open, new highs, then pullback, DOW +23

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were mixed overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2602. In the opening minutes the SPX rallied to a new high at 2606, then began to pullback. At 10am new home sales were reported higher. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 2599 and then tried to rally. By 2pm the SPX hit 2603, then closed at 2601.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.05, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then consumer confidence and FED governor Powell’s confirmation hearing at 10am.

Unchanged open, marginal new high (SPX 2606), small pullback (SPX 2599), bounce, then narrow trading range. Short term count from Minute iv SPX 2557 notched higher a bit: 2590-2578-2606. Starting to see some simple downgrades in isolated Tech stocks taking about 10% out of the stock. When traders decide to take profits, after enough of these downgrades, we’ll be in a correction. Short term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Posted in Updates | Tagged , , , | 638 Comments