Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then market rallies, DOW +151

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: 5.9% v 5.6%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2342 close, bounced to 2344 in the opening minutes, hit 2338 by 10am, then started to move higher. At 10am consumer confidence was reported at a 16-year high: 125.6 v 114.8. The rally continued into the afternoon with a couple of small pullbacks along the way. At 1pm FED chair Yellen: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170328a.htm. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 2364, then pulled back to close at 2359.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: pending home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced, hit SPX 2338, and then started to rally. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2358, for a 36-point rally from yesterday’s 2322 low. This is the best rally since this decline began from SPX 2401 earlier in the month. The tentative green Micro 4 was upgraded to orange at that point. This rally now presents the best opportunity for a Micro 5 advance to new highs. Short term support is in the SPX 2350’s and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum hit quite overbought during today’s rally. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend rebounding

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW -46

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2323 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2344 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2322 and then started to rally. At 1pm the market had closed the gap when hitting SPX 2344. A pullback to SPX 2336 followed by 2:30. Another rally pushed to SPX to 2345. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 2342.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 12:45.

The market opened today by gapping below the 2336 pivot, which had held support during this decline. At the open it found support at the 2321 pivot, and then rallied. Everything I have read over the past several days, on the blog and in the OEW forum, suggests the market is in correction mode. There are lots of technicals to support this scenario, and it was even noted as possible in the weekend update. While this may be the most obvious scenario, the short term DOW count still looks acceptable. Which was noted as favored over the SPX count in the weekend update as well. The SPX short term count had been a bit choppy over the past month or so, while the DOW count has been quite clear since this bull market began over 13-months ago. The DOW count continues to suggest Micro 4 has been underway this month in an ongoing uptrend. Should the SPX lose the 2321 pivot (2314-2328) then the downtrend scenario would be more likely. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum hit neutral during today’s rebound. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Swarm returns on Tuesday at 5pm

We had some technical problems last week and the Swarm session was cancelled. As a result we are getting a jumpstart on this week’s session.

If you have not previously participated and would like to, please follow the instructions in the second paragraph of this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

Please fill out this survey any time before entering the swarm on Tuesday at 5pm. Unanimous AI is offering a $25 Amazon Gift card to the most correct participant: https://www.research.net/r/SB9396N

Use this private link to enter the SPX UNU on Tuesday: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382

enjoy your weekend!

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weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2378. After a pullback to SPX 2370 on Monday, the market gapped up to 2382 on Tuesday. But that was immediately sold off and the market hit SPX 2336 by Wednesday. Thursday the market rebounded to SPX 2359, then on Friday the market retested 2336 and ended the week at 2344. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.00%. Economic reports were mixed on the week. On the downtick: existing homes sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: new home sales, durable goods orders, and the Q1 GDP estimate. Next week’s highlights: Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI, the PCE and a speech from FED Chair Yellen. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

This week the market experienced its worse weekly decline since October: -1.4%. Considering the market has rallied 15.2% since November it is a relatively small decline. From the early-March SPX 2401 all-time high the market had declined 2.7% at this week’s SPX 2336 low. This is the largest decline, in points and percentage, since the current uptrend began in early-November. With this in mind, it is possible that a correction could be underway. While our internal uptrend wave count does not support it, a break of the OEW 2321 pivot range (2314-2328) would likely suggest that scenario.

Whether the market experiences a correction, or not, the long term count remains unaffected. A Super cycle wave 2 low occurred in 2009 at SPX 667. Cycle wave [1] of Super cycle wave 3 has been underway since then. Cycle wave [1] should consist of five Primary waves. Primary wave I ended in 2015 at SPX 2135, and Primary wave II ended in 2016 at SPX 1811, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary III should consist of five Major waves. A Major wave 1 of Primary III bull market has been underway since the February 2016 Primary II low at SPX 1811.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Major wave 1 is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate wave i ended in April at SPX 2111, Int. wave ii ended in June at SPX 1992, and Int. wave iii has been underway since then. Intermediate wave iii is dividing into five Minor waves. Minor wave 1 ended in August at SPX 2194, Minor wave 2 ended in November at SPX 2084, and Minor wave 3 has already reached SPX 2401 during its current uptrend.

The Minor 3 uptrend has lasted longer, 4 months v 2 months, than either of the first two uptrends. And had travelled more points, 317 v 301 and 202, than either of the previous uptrends. This is typical for a third wave. Recently it also hit the most overbought weekly RSI reading since the year 2004. While the market has been under pressure this entire month, we are sticking with our short term count for this uptrend. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Our short term count suggests the SPX is currently in a Nano iv pullback, of Micro 3, of Minute iii. Our short term count for the DOW suggests the market is currently in a Micro 4 pullback of Minute iii. Considering the length and depth of the pullback we tend to prefer the DOW count. When this pullback concludes, if it hasn’t already, we expect a rally to new highs to complete Minute wave iii. Then after another pullback for Minute iv, a Minute v rally to complete the entire uptrend. Not much wiggle room on the downside left. If this uptrend is going to resume, as expected, it will have to occur next week.

Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week and lost 0.5%.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.3%.

The DJ World index lost 0.8%, and the NYSE lost 1.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.3%.

Crude is also in a downtrend and lost 2.7%.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.5%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.5%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: a speech from FED chair Yellen, the Case-Shiller index and consumer confidence. Wednesday: pending home sales. Thursday: Q4 GDP final (est. 2.0%) and weekly jobless claims. Friday: personal income/spending, the PCE, the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then another choppy day, DOW -60

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 durable goods orders were reported higher: 1.7% v 1.8%. The market opened at SPX 2351, rallied to 2356 by 11am, and then began to pullback. Just past 3pm the SPX hit the 2336 pivot again. Then it was announced that the healthcare bill vote was cancelled. The market reversed to the upside. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2351, then pulled back to end the week at 2344.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold tacked on $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 59.0% v 59.6%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was reported higher: 1.0% v 0.9%.

The market opened higher today, rallied, and then sold off to Wednesday’s 2336 low. After the healthcare bill vote was cancelled the market reversed and ended the week at SPX 2344. The market has appeared to have been held hostage by this healthcare bill the past few trading days. No change in thee short term count. Weekend update tomorrow. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open in choppy day, DOW -5

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 258K v 241K. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2348 close, ticked down to 2343 in the opening minutes, then started to rally. At 10am new home sales were reported higher: 592K v 555K. The rally continued until 11:30 to SPX 2359, in hope that a healthcare bill would be passed in Congress today. When that hope began to fade the market started to pullback. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2343, then bounced to close at 2346.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2401 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods orders at 8:30.

The market opened lower today, even after the futures were higher in overnight trading. The pullback was 5 points from yesterday’s close, then the market resumed its rally from yesterday’s SPX 2336 low. After rallying 23 points to SPX 2359 the market reversed and headed back to the lows of the day, after the healthcare bill stalled in Congress. It appears some version of the healthcare bill needs to get approved before the tax cut bill can be worked on. Which is what the markets are focusing on. Before we can be fairly certain the current pullback has ended, the market needs to rally 35+ points from the low. Short term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum hit overbought today after yesterday’s positive divergence, and ended the day near oversold. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -7

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were relative flat overnight, and at 9am the FHFA was reported unchanged. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2344 close, bounced to 2345 in the opening minutes, then declined to 2336 by 10:30. At 10am existing home sales were reported lower: 5.48M v 5.69M. Then the market rallied to SPX 2351 by 11:30, pulled back to 2341 by 1pm, rallied to 2352 by 3:30, then closed at 2348.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. Bonds rose 7 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold gained $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8:45, then new home sales at 10am.

The market opened lower today, bounced, then hit the OEW 2336 pivot. After that it rallied 15 points, for its best advance since this decline from SPX 2390 began a week ago. The total decline from the March 1st all-time high at SPX 2401 has now reached 65 points. This is by far the largest pullback since this uptrend began in early-November. It is also the longest pullback in time as well. Looking at the SPX hourly chart, Nano wave ii only took 3-days, and this pullback is now 15-days. This appears to be quite out of balance. Micro wave 2, however, took 10-days, and this appears more in line with what has recently occurred. Also it fits the ongoing DOW hourly count as well. Will continue to keep both counts active, but now lean toward a Micro 4 underway instead of Nano iv. After the SPX hit 2401 and started to pullback, we anticipated some choppy activity going forward as a lot of smaller 5th waves had to unfold. But nothing like this type of decline. Should the market fail to rally from here, and then break the 2321 pivot range (2314), we would have to consider a correction is underway. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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