Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

December 7, 2019

SPX closed last week at 3141 after making a new high at 3154 into the Thanksgiving holiday.  Negative trade news gapped the market lower on Monday, consolidating in the 3110/3120 range. Tuesday saw another opening gap lower, testing 3070 in the first hour before steadily grinding higher into midweek to recapture the 3110/3120 zone. Friday’s robust employment figures drove the market out of congestion to retest the highs, reaching 3151 before finishing the week at 3146.

SPX gained 0.16%/DOW lost 0.13% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.08%/0.10% this week.

On the economic front, the following reports surprised positively or met expectations: Manufacturing PMI 52.6; Services PMI 51.6; weekly jobless claims 203k; factory orders 0.3%; nonfarm payrolls 266k vs 156k, much better than in October; unemployment rate 3.5%; whole sale inventories 0.1% and Consumer Sentiment Index 99.2 up from 96.6 in November. On the downside: ISM Manufacturing Index 48.1%, ADP employment report 67k vs 121k in October, ISM Non-manufacturing Index 53.9% and average hourly earnings 0.2%.

Next week’s highlight is the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  Other than that, we get NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, CPI, PPI, weekly jobless claims, retail sales, import prices and business inventories.

 

LONG TERM: Uptrend extension likely underway

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October 2018 and Major 2 bottoming in December 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX Weekly chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro wave 1 uptrend high at 3020 has occurred, ushering in a series of potential wave 3 moves higher.  However, we’re still waiting to see if the current trend continues to make new highs, rising enough to not overlap the previous uptrend high, during the next downtrend.  Until then, we maintain our low probability bearish alternate count as posted on DOW in the public chart list.  Note this week how the 13 EMA on the weekly time frame provided support for Thursday and Friday’s strong rally.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend inflection point

After posting another all-time high during the previous week at 3154, SPX started this week/month with a sharp pullback to 3070.  This ~2.7% decline was the largest counter trend move since October and sets up some interesting possibilities.  The pictured scenario sees 3154 as a completed wave, either Micro wave 3, or a potential Nano wave i from the downtrend low at 2856 in early October.  The Micro wave 3 scenario suggests the current uptrend may be at or close to completion, while the Nano wave i scenario suggests a very bullish extension may be in play.  Consequently, we’ve updated the medium term status as an inflection point.  This inflection point will likely remain until either a downtrend is confirmed, or SPX can rally above 3200 or so.  A few indices such as SOX and TRAN are in confirmed downtrends, which could be a warning sign for the more bearish medium term outlook.  Either way, we continue to project a bull market into 2020 as part of the Minute wave iii subdivision that’s been underway since the 2822 low in early August.  Our nominal target for Minute iii sometime early next year remains unchanged at 3300.  Once the inflection point is resolved, we will update our medium term projection.

spxdaily

SHORT TERM:

The short term count tracks closely with the medium term subdivisions.  We can count five qualified waves up from 2856 to 3154 with a large third wave, which gives a nice impulsive structure to that point.  Nano wave v for that sequence fell short of our 3180 target, but was pretty close to fib ratio 0.618x Nano wave i, and stopped right near our 3156 pivot.  From there, we have the largest pullback for the entire trend at 84 points to the 3070 low.  This is typical for a subsequent retrace to exceed the prior fourth wave when the fifth is smaller than the first.  SPX set up a positive divergence off that low on Tuesday, which preceded the strong rally into Friday to another qualified wave at 3151.   Given the inflection point mentioned in the previous section, we’re counting the 3070 low as either Nano wave a of an ongoing Micro wave 4, or possible Nano wave ii which would suggest a rescale of the prior small waves down one degree.  SPX reached extremely overbought level at the highs this week.

Short term support is at the 3121 and 3105 pivots, and resistance is at the 3156 and 3180 pivots.

spxhourly

trends

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 381 Comments

Happy Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving to those celebrating it!

Due to the holiday week there will be no weekend report this week.

Posted in Updates | 544 Comments

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

 

November 23, 2019

The SPX started the week quietly at 3118 and ended the day at 3122, little changed from last weeks close at 3120. Tuesday had a gap up opening at 3128, but quickly reversed down to 3115 before a rally back and a close at 3120. On Wednesday, the index started with a gap down to 3114, closed the gap except of one point, and then made its weekly low at 3091, all in the first two and a half hours. After that, it rallied for the rest of the day and finished at 3108. Thursday was a flat with a close at 3104. Friday opened a bit higher at 3111, travelled within 10 points and ended the week at 3110.

SPX/DOW lost 0.33%/0.46% while NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%/0.52% this week.

On the economic front, weekly unemployment claims were kept at 227K, somewhat worse than the forecasted 218K. Existing home sales were up to 5.46m but missed the forecast of 5.47m. Both, Manufacturing and Service PMI continued to expand at 52.2 / 51.6 respectively, and the Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectation at 96.8 vs 95.7.

LONG TERM: early stages of a breakout

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and the Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on the SPX chart, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September Micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2950 level provides support going forward.

However, the DOW all time high last week has not eliminated the alternate count, which can be found in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

spxdaily

SPX extended the rally to reach another all-time high at 3128 by Tuesday morning, then reversed with a 37 point pullback on Wednesday to a low of 3091, before consolidating to end the week at 3110.  We previously established Micro wave 2 complete at the 2856 low in early October.  Micro wave 3 is now ongoing for nearly two months and likely to extend into December.  The pullback this week was the largest since Nano wave ii and was sufficient to qualify another medium term subdivision.  Consequently we’ve updated our count to reflect Nano wave iii complete at 3128.  This gives us two qualified pullbacks for this uptrend of 67 and 37 points and a very nice impulsive structure with a large third wave.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 is unchanged at 3180, which fits nicely with the current wave structure.  It would not be surprising for the recent pullback to extend lower in the range of 60-70 points or so.  A much larger decline back to overlap 3022 would be concerning and suggest something else may be in play.  Minute wave iii is now beginning to exceed the length of Minute wave i, which suggests 3300 is in reach by early next year.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly

Not much to add here, as the short term count tracks closely with the medium term subdivisions as discussed in the previous section.  Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii = 3128.  Nano wave iv is now ongoing with a retest or extension of the 3091 low still possible.  This week set up a negative divergence at the high from an overbought condition, which preceded the Nano wave iv decline.  A rally back above 3128 will suggest Nano wave iv is complete.  A possible short term target for extension lower would be Nano wave iv = Nano wave ii, which gives another 30 points down to 2961 and right in the next lower pivot range.  We’ll just have to wait and see what the market decides.

Short term support is at the 3105 and 3056 pivots, and resistance is at the 3121 and 3156 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 0.43%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) lost 0.70%.

The Dow Jones Global index (DJW) lost 0.40%, and the NYSE lost 0.39%.

 

COMMODITIES

Bonds (UST) are in a downtrend, but gained 0.32%

Crude oil (WTIC) is in a downtrend, but gained 0.09%

Gold is in a downtrend, and lost 0.33%

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 0.31%.

GBTC (Bitcoin) is in a downtrend and lost 16.99%.

 

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 327 Comments

OEW Lessons

We’ve had quite a number of new students graduate into the OEW Group within the last year and are now contributing great insights into stocks we’ve never looked into before.

If you’d like to become a part of the OEW Group or learn OEW continue reading. If not happy trading!

Over the past four years we have been compiling additional verified and quantified observations in the various markets. As a result, the 2019 lesson plan has been expanded to thirty lessons, with nearly all real time charts.

Objective Elliott Wave, (OEW), is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. OEW is not textbook Elliott Wave. It is a proprietary technique that defines every significant wave within bull and bear markets quantitatively. All markets are driven by long term investor confidence cycles. When the cycle is positive a bull market unfolds, when negative a bear market. The OEW technique not only determines if a market is bullish or bearish, it also determines how far a market has progressed in its current cycle.

Once you learn OEW you will be able to quantitatively research the historical price performance of any asset class, or stock, and determine its current position within its overall long-term trend. Quantified waves never change. Then using shorter term charts, you will be able to determine good entry and exit price areas in the asset you are tracking. It is not complicated. Actually, you will be amazed, after some period of time and dedicated study, how easily you will be able to discern the waves as they unfold. OEW quantitatively identifies all the medium, and long-term waves that create bull and bear markets. Every one! We have been applying this technique, successfully, for nearly 40 years.

Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, called the Dec. 1987 low, the July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, the Oct. 2002 low, the Oct. 2007 top (in early Jan08), the Mar. 2009 bear market low nearly to the day, the 2016-2018 bull market (in mid-2016), and the recent bull market top in 2018.

If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at JohnsonOEW@gmail.com for details. Best to your trading/investing.

Posted in Updates

Weekend Report

Weekend Report

Provided by the OEW Group

 

November 16 2019

SPX opened the week from a gap down opening at 3080, then rallied up to reach 3087 by Monday’s close, from last weeks close at 3093.  Tuesday has reached 3100 at the first hour, but gave back the gain and close at 3092. Wednesday opened lower at 3084 again then rallied back for the rest of the day to finish at 3094.  Thursday is a flat and closed at 3097. Friday opened with a gap up at 3107 and rallied to the high of the week and finish the week at 3120.

SPX/DOW gained 0.89%/1.17% while NDX/NAZ gained 0.77%/0.72% of the Week.

On the economic front, weekly unemployment claims were up 14K at 225K and worse than forecast of 215K. Industrial Production was down at -0.84%, which was worse than consensus of -0.4%. Producer Price Index was 0.4%, up from -0.3% last month. Core CPI was 2.31% , down from previous month 2.36%.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout

spxwkly

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long-term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.   A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2930 level provides support going forward.

However, the DOW all time high this week did not eliminate the alternate count yet, so our alternate count for a potential breakdown is still posted on the DOW in the public chart list. We’re developing the criteria on how and when we could phase out the alternate count.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily.png

SPX continued the rally this week to reach another all-time high at 3120, and appears to be breaking out of the nested 1-2 structure that’s been in place since May. This confirmed Micro wave 2 completed at the 2856 low in October, and Micro wave 3 has been ongoing ever since.  Our nominal target for Micro wave 3 would be 1.618x Micro wave 1, which gives 3180.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, and we’re expecting the Micro 5 / Minute iii could go as far as 3500 level.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

SHORT TERM

spxhourly.png

Not much has changed short term.  We continue to count three waves up from the Micro wave 2 low as Nano wave i = 2960, Nano wave ii = 2893 and Nano wave iii in progress.  Nano wave iii is now well beyond the length of Nano wave i and exceeding 2x ratio with that wave, which further confirms the impulse structure. Since it reached our next pivot 3121 area this Friday, the next level to watch for a potential target is 3156. Noted that both the Hourly and Daily RSI has been over bought, a nano wave iv may happen at any time soon, before the nano wave v finished the Micro wave 3 at 3180 level.

Short term support is at the 3105 pivots, and the Resistance is at the 3121 and 3156 pivots.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) lost 2.15%, mainly due to the Protest in Hong Kong and disappointed China Q3 data.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.38%.

The Dow Jones Global index (DJW) gained 0.39%, and the NYSE gained 0.64%.

 

COMMODITIES

Bonds (US 10 year) are in a downtrend, but gained 0.57%

Crude oil (WTIC) is in a downtrend, but gained 0.84%

Gold is in a downtrend, but gained 0.38%

The USD is in a downtrend, but lost 0.34%.

GBTC (Bitcoin) is in an uptrend, and lost 5.70%.

 

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

Be kind and have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 563 Comments

Weekend Report

November 8 2019

The breakout continues as the SPX made another new all time high and weekly closing this high finishing up 26 for the week and closing at 3093.

SPX opened the week with a gap open to 3050 on Monday and closed at 3068 on the day.  Another gap to 3080 occurred on Tuesday and a range from 3068 to 3097 from Tuesday morning to the close on Friday.  The last hour of the week on Friday saw buying from 3082 to the 3093 close.

SPX/DOW moved up 0.85%/1.22% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.16%/1.06%.

On the economic front, PMI was slightly above expectations with a 54.7 reported vs. 53.5 expected.  Unemployment was 211K vs. 215K expected.   Consumer sentiment came in at 95.7 vs. 96 expected.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout from consolidation

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2930 level provides support going forward.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend breakout in progress.

SPX appears broke out of multiple 1,2 formations 3 of 3 of 3 at this time.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  The new all-time highs appear to have confirmed the previous micro 2 low.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, ideally the previous 1 wave highs would provide support going forward.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

spxdaily

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.95%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 0.89%.

The DJ World index gained 0.77%, and the NYSE gained 0.81%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend and lost -1.94%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and gained 1.85%

Gold is in an downtrend and lost 3.21%

GBTC is in a downtrend and lost 2.86%.

The USD is in a downtrend but gained 1.2%.

Have a good week!

Posted in Updates | 528 Comments

Weekend Report

November 1 2019

It was an excellent week in the equity world this Fed week.  Looking at US markets we see the SPX, Nasdaq, COMPQ, and Dow Jones 30 all breaking out of multiple 1,2 setups to new highs.  Looking at Europe we see similar set ups (though not necessarily the same OEW count) in the German Dax, the Swiss SMI, and the French CAC.

As expected, the US Fed cut its lending rate an additional 0.25%.

SPX opened the week with a gap open to 3032.  The SPX touched 3048 at 10AM Tuesday morning and was then rangebound between 3020 and 3048 until Thursday afternoon when a run up began from 3023.  A 12 pt. gap up on Friday kicked off a nice final day of the week with Friday closing out at 3066.

SPX/DOW moved up 1.47%/1.44% while NDX/NAZ gained 1.64%/1.74%.

On the economic front, Consumer confidence was slightly down.  Advance GDP was higher than expected at 1.9% vs. 1.6% expected.   Non-farm employment was +128K vs. +90K expected.

LONG TERM: Early stages of breakout from consolidation

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  A breakout above the September micro 1 high at 3020 has occurred.  We are bullish as long as the 2920 level provides support going forward.

spxwkly

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend breakout in progress.

SPX appears to be breaking out of multiple 1,2 formations at this time.  Consequently, there are no changes of our current preferred count.  The new all-time highs appear to have confirmed the previous micro 2 low.  This is a good start for an impulsive structure, ideally the previous 1 wave highs would provide support going forward.  A move below 2893 would invalidate the current Micro wave 1 and Micro wave 2 count.

spxdaily

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets (using AAXJ as a proxy) gained 1.15%.

European markets (using FEZ as a proxy) gained 1.08%.

The DJ World index gained 1.32%, and the NYSE gained 1.17%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 0.5%

Crude oil is in a downtrend and lost 0.81%

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.41%

GBTC is in a downtrend but gained 8.6%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.46%.

Have a good week!

 

Posted in Updates | 496 Comments