Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2620. Volatility continued, but with market trading more balanced the slant this week was to the upside. On Monday the SPX hit 2673, pulled back to 2637 by Tuesday, rallied to 2702 by Wednesday, then continued higher for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 4.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 5.45%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: retail sales, the NY FED, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, business inventories, the Philly FED, industrial production, housing starts, building permits, export/import prices and consumer sentiment. Next week’s economic reports will be sparse and include existing homes sales and leading indicators.

LONG TERM: uptrend

Last Friday the Intermediate iv downtrend hit SPX 2533 for a 12% decline in only two weeks. At the low the market set up numerous positive divergences on the hourly/daily timeframes. The market responded by rallying nearly 100 SPX points in a couple of hours on Friday. Then continued that rally throughout this week. Although at a much slower pace. This week’s strong rally triggered a WROC buy signal. This suggests the Int. v uptrend, to new highs, is underway. Historically, more than 50-years, these signals have been 96% accurate.

The Major wave 1, of Primary III, bull market continues to unfold. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate iii then began to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5, and Int. wave iii, just ended in January 2018. Intermediate wave iv dropped 12% in just two weeks. The largest correction since the C-leg of the Primary II bear market. Keep in mind, price is always more important than time.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

After the technical setups last Friday we noted these types of setups have often accompanied downtrend lows. Especially after the quick, sharp, rally that followed that low on Friday. This week the market continued higher and triggered a WROC signal. Further suggesting Intermediate wave iv ended at SPX 2533. What to expect for Int. v?

That depends on how Int. v unfolds. Our ongoing target all along has been SPX 3000+ in 2 – 4 years. With this bull in its second year SPX 3000+ still remains the target. Historically, if new highs are made quickly the uptrend can make substantially more progress. If new highs are difficult to reach, the uptrend is like to end with just marginal new highs. With the first two uptrends of this bull market lasting only 2 months, let’s give this one at least until April. Medium term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.


The market has rallied 221 SPX points from last Friday’s 2533 low to this Friday’s 2754 high. During the advance there have been many swings of 20-30-40 points making it difficult to count short term. Quantitatively we just see one wave up from the low. This uptrend might end up being a difficult count like the end of the last uptrend.

Let’s see how it unfolds as it has only been one week from the low. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum declined off a negative divergence.


Asian markets were mostly positive and gained 1.7%.

European markets were mostly positive and gained 2.1%.

The DJ World index gained 4.2%, and the NYSE gained 3.8%.


Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.5%.

Crude continues to downtrend but gained 4.0%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 3.1%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 2.0%.


Monday: national holiday. Wednesday: existing home sales. Thursday: jobless claims and leading indicators. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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335 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Billy says:

    If minimum targets of 24810 and 2698 are hit in the next 24 hrs I’ll be a buyer there. Should be a half decent rally for ii of C.

  2. Avi’s Advice february 20th,2018
    “With the market rally experienced over the past week, many in the media are now reconsidering their recent perspective regarding the demise of the bull market. Not only did the market strike the minimal upside target we laid out for members a week ago — once we broke through 2646 on the Emini S&P 500 — it even exceeded our minimal target by about 25 points.

    However, just as the market has everyone now considering how much more upside we can see, I think we may be setting up for another drop to begin this week. Due to the lack of impulsive patterns evident off the recent lows in many of the charts I am following, it would suggest the stock market is likely going to see a retest of the prior lows, or a lower low before this wave (4) has run its course.

    Again, I want to remind you that 4th waves are the most variable of the Elliott Wave 5-wave structure. For this reason, we almost have to expect many twists and turns, especially during the b-wave of that structure. Currently, we are still in the b-wave of this wave (4), and unless we see an impulsive drop below the 2700 support region on the S&P 500 SPX-0.25% we may remain in this b-wave for the next several weeks.

    In other words, should we drop below the 2700 region this week in a corrective and overlapping fashion, we will likely be only dropping in a (b) wave within a larger b-wave, as presented in the attached charts in yellow. However, if the market does provide us with an impulsive structure below 2700 for wave 1 of the c-wave down, then we will likely be targeting the 2400 region within the next few weeks. Yet, the drop we experienced on Friday off the high was not clearly the start of an impulsive structure.

    While the market has certainly struck the minimum target we set for this wave (4) between 2424 and 2539, the structure of the rally off that low is suggesting that this wave (4) will likely take more time and provide more whipsaw in the coming weeks. However, as long as we hold over the 2400 region support, my expectation is that we have a date with the 3011-3223 region for the S&P, which will likely be struck by the end of 2018 or early 2019. It will be at that point that I expect we can begin a 20%-30% correction.”
    Will he be Avi Gilburt or Avi Gartman,as he has been in gold.

    • quickrick38 says:

      Hi learned, I’ve been following him too…he’s had a rough year. Either you manage analysts or you are one. You can’t do both.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        right, as i have said for so long, predicting things via any theory is very difficult. Reacting to things is another story, as long as you have predictable and measurable stops with a reasonable risk/reward ratio.

  3. All this talk about TLT going lower to 110 posible 89 and TBT exploding upwards leaves it clear what will happen to six and dow. only one way to go… but it all depends on the Bond market not the other way around…

  4. Gary Lewis says:

    Anyone following TLT? https://www.tradingview.com/x/lxjJk9H9/ Possible three day test of the low today but massive head and shoulders top on the monthly chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/NvK817xn/ makes it a little treacherous. Short term option play maybe?

    • stan911 says:

      Gary TLT works opposite to stocks is that correct?

    • phil1247 says:

      …bond futures … similar to TLT
      looks like 4th wave now and im looking for a spike down to targets below

      HUUUUUGE target possible ( approx TLT 110 )
      if we can get thru the first two dotted yellow target lines

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Right, I get it. I did really well last year in TLT getting in at 117. I didn’t really believe that interest rates would ever go up. The TLT head and shoulders, if it breaks, shows a potential down to 85. Guess that’s one reason I’m bearish on the markets. If that happened . . . would it be allowed to happen? That is the question, and the basis for a bet on TLT at this point. But your wave count is compelling. Thanks

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Was remembering when I went against the crowd in 2016

        Gary Lewis says:
        February 8, 2016 at 9:22 am
        Nibbling on some calls here at Tony’s 1841 pivot. Closed out some more puts.
        February 8, 2016 at 1:11 pm
        You may be right on your weekly or monthly calls but we go straight to new highs from here is not digestible.

        Gary Lewis says:
        February 8, 2016 at 1:17 pm
        I am a perma-bear so I agree. But I didn’t like it when suddenly everyone else turned bearish. I guess I just like to bet against the crowd.

        Boy did i catch a lot of grief when I suggested that SPX was a buy at 1840…People were really nasty back then.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I have TLT going to 89, but that is just the computer printout…

    • phil1247 says:


      its tricky here gary because we are retesting the long near 117
      perfect place for a squeeze
      so i am ready to sell TBT if the extension short fails

  5. phil1247 says:

    SPX close 2727 ……….my favorite numbers !

    you all have till 15 min before close to pick
    good luck
    see ya !

  6. todays close 2730.41 the 50 day Moving Avderage battle on tomorrow.

  7. phil1247 says:


    pushed stops on TBT way up
    either we SPIKE up now or else

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Nice bit of consolidation before the next explosion to the upside.

  9. nice bouquet of stops in the 2685 area for the little boyz to gun for–expect they’ll hit those in the next few days

  10. phil1247 says:


    TBT spike up coming ………….

    dont overstay your welcome if target is not crushed

  11. H D says:

    Technical so far, Tony’s 2731 pivot, 10 handle hit, -10 at 10 am, HWB. No thinking required.
    Under 2717 changes that.

  12. fotis2 says:

    So whats the bet for this weeks swing?To me looks like Short Gold, Short Silver Inside day breakdown on both targets support look down resistance look up. S&P futures pending Bullflag breakup could close above 20 ma on Daily bbs and of to the races.GL and trade less make more

  13. stan911 says:

    Spx gap ranging from 2732 to 2747

  14. fionamargaret says:

    There is an interesting sequence in oil (UWT) to 72, as long as we stay above 59…..

    • kvilia says:

      UWT – 72 if CL above 59. Interesting. CL looks range bound until markets settle down and confirm support.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …yes Kvilia, oil to 72 if it stays above 59….I don’t know what that would make UWT, but it made me scratch my head…..there is a sequence out there that suggests this, but suggest caution. I thought. supplies were ample……
        I bought a little more gold too as I think Bud did. I hope we all do well, whatever we decide.
        I agree with you on letting the markets settle down….x

  15. quickrick38 says:

    Looks like wave 4 is staying out of wave 1’s territory so, we should have a legit 5 wave ‘C’ wave down.

  16. phil1247 says:


    still looking for that SPIKE down in bonds to target to take profits in TBT
    stock swoon could lead to temporary FTQ
    ie short squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze in bonds

  17. phil1247 says:

    chris…… re : your answer

    . 2733 was not the 50 % retrace of the the prior extension long…
    but it was the .618 retrace .. 😉

    see how es tests and retests over and over again
    thats why there is never any rush to do anything
    unless we are in extensions of extensions .. ie crash

  18. phil1247 says:

    Breakfast time with da boyze………. they are sooooooooooo predictable

    ES … the short we discussed yesterday from 2733 has hit target at 2713
    2711 long form lows was violated
    as discussed … i keep looking down until Ms Market tells me otherwise
    so i dont get hit with her HAYMAKER

  19. quickrick38 says:

    ES, wave 4 of ‘C’ with one more drop to go.

  20. ….and here’s the first test (from my posts last night).

  21. gary61b says:

    I would expect that the Int. iv would stop close to the next lower degree wave 4 level, in this instance minor 4. I could see the drop to 2532 as being an abc of the minute degree to make up minor A, which drops close to the minute iv level. Then minor B then Minor C of Int. iv should drop to or near Minor 4 level which is at 2322…..That’s why I have a hard time with Int. iv being complete at 2532. Anyone?

    • stan911 says:

      For me I need to see 2595-85break for lower prices don’t forget we have double bottomed and have had a strong bounce. Short term need to break below 2700 then 2595-85

    • fionamargaret says:

      2340.59 was the bottom of the sequence, the numbers higher are 2465.75, then 2532.
      There was a bullish breakout on $SPX which could also be construed by some as a bull trap.
      I think there is unfinished business on the downside….

      • fionamargaret says:

        …this was just the sequence…
        The case for this is…. stocks are expensive, folks are sitting on profits, tightening conditions, and political risk….

  22. Bud Fox says:

    SP 2754 sure looks like the high, for the past rally.
    Does that mean, we now go back down below, 2532?

    • quickrick38 says:

      Yeh, Bud as noted earlier, my target for the 1st bounce (the first ‘abc’ down) was just below 2720ES. We hit that with a 2719.75. Then if, IF we got a second bounce my target is 2704…looks like we’ll probably hit that one too.

  23. The second chart is the current trading activity of /ES. As you can see, one can draw many anchors from past technical highs. If today’s break was related to some news event ( U.S. destroyed a Russian tank in Syria or a RUMOR AT THE TIME, U.S. forces killed 100 Russian soldiers in Syria), algorithms could ignore that break, defend a lower 50% or 61.8% LONG and the rally continues.

    If you look at abc123’s chart, one could easily tweak the label to show that minor wave 1 completed on Friday and that SPX is trading in Minor wave 2. Wave 2 corrects 50% of wave 1, So, a rather large pullback is to be expected.

    I believe Intermediate wave iv ended and that SPX is rally in Intermediate wave v. I have positional long term longs but will day trade until the market confirms whether wave iv is still in progress (a new lower lows print and defending 61.8% SHORTS) or wave v continues (/ES prints new higher highs and 61.8% LONGS are defended.

    I will let the market tell me it’s true intentions and using DH algorithm analysis, I will trade accordingly.


  24. Good evening all

    I will publish 2 posts in the next few minutes. This post supports phils123 initial call of additional weakness in the immediate future. Not speaking for phil, but I’m sure he would agree, that at some level below, if /ES trades and defends a 50% LONG….i.e. a weekly measured move LONG and subsequently breaks a 61.8% SHORT, above in a counter trend trade, that would confirmation to me, that the low is in and as long as future subsequent 61.8% LONGS are defended…a rally to new highs would be expected (next chart).

    This chart is of the October 1987 stock market crash. In 1987, the 61.8% SHORT was broken by about 6 ticks, then there was a sudden decline that simply picked up speed to the downside and the rest is history!

    Chart…. https://gyazo.com/b260c40cb3491fbbb453d7ba694d14d3

  25. Bud Fox says:

    Interesting to me, is the HUGE numbers of aircraft going into ORD tonight (now).
    What a mad house of an airport to have so many aircraft in the skies over on
    landing location ORD….

  26. Kisshu2 says:

    does anyone know the parameters for cn’s big up big down? setup trigger and confirmation

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Who knows? That guy’s a lunatic. I’d look to the cash session on 2/9/2018 – looking at the high, certainly the low.

      • Kisshu2 says:

        hi cn was the trigger the high on the 8th and confirm the high on the7th for daily? for weekly confirm above high on 5th? Also is there a little down on daily now trigger trade below 2731?

        • CygnetNoir says:

          Start here: “I’d look to the cash session on 2/9/2018 – looking at the high, certainly the low.” I guess I should have added “and everything in between from ding to dong.” This only works if you keep in mind you are observing the activity of a mass of emotional thinking beings – price action viewed from the perspective of who is happy, who is sad, who is trapped, who is pissed off … (this post is too long. I’d ignore it).

  27. Hello Phil. I appreciate all that you contribute here. Looking for your 2 cents….. Looking at the es 2530 up to the 2655 high one could make the case for a cup and handle or maybe a flag/triangle that measures 2780+ on es Also looking at the low of 2530 to the 2671.5 mark as a cup and handle or flag would measure to 2800 and change. If you look at the most current move as a possible flag from 2688 to 2754 and a breakout of around 2740ish to the upside would get us above 2800 and change as well. These moves would match up well with ABC123’s analysis as ending the first 5 wave sequence. Do you attribute much to the possibility of these patterns and that the extension long from 2671.5 even though sloppy is holding or maybe a traditional from the 2688.5 is in play? Thanks in advance

    • phil1247 says:

      hi market
      sure all those patterns are possible
      the way i look at it is …
      .first priority… dont lose money
      second prioity… make money when the odds are in your favor

      you had plenty of opportunity to make money during the meltup
      with odds in your favor
      now is the time to be cautious

      how about KISS principle….
      hourly es has lower high and lower low..ie ..down trend
      hourly short has traded
      i dont want to be long until that changes for starters
      lets see what da boyze have cooked up for breakfast tomorrow

      • I’m with you on all that. I traded the long side from week ago last Friday up until this last Friday but I didn’t want to hold long over the extended weekend, so in cash right now. I agree with the KISS principle. Even if we don’t make new lows I believe we have more opportunity on the downside than the limited upside plus a historical bearish next several days with the possible exception of tomorrow in the short term. Thanks for your valuable opinions. Best to you!

  28. Adam Strehl says:

    Kinda off topic, but does anyone have OEW on California Real Estate or insight. First time buyer here and I am sitting on the sidelines until prices hopefully, possibly go down. Any insight would be appreciated.

  29. SPYtrader says:

    Phil, thanks for all your posts and charts, all 50 of them :-), even if it annoys HD, “The Patriot”
    Question I have is; do you add all the fib and extensions on your chart manually or is there a charting program that does this.

    • phil1247 says:

      all done by yours truly …..
      if you love what you are doing ……. its not work………. its enjoyment
      also its rewarding to know that others are interested
      and it makes me want to do more
      so others can have that ” light bulb moment”
      that i got …even tho it took a few months to turn the light on

      thanks SPY

  30. alexh110 says:

    I notice SPX/ES-mini has been following a daily trading cycle since the 2532 low, bottoming between 13.00 and 16.00 GMT. The cycle has continued today despite the national holiday in the US, and shows up very clearly on the 4-hour chart.
    Could be useful in the coming week.

  31. phil1247 says:



    you are interested in the dollar ….yes?
    5 waves up completed in euro

    eur/usd ext long has failed once ..
    ….next failure should swoooooooooooooossh down to 119
    ergo … big counter rally in the dollar

  32. elmer510 says:

    I didn’t find much comments on WROC, but ROC is explained well in an article at Stockcharts.http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:rate_of_change_roc_and_momentum

    I think W is how many days you go for. At Marketwatch’ chart they use ROC (12), rate of change for the last 12 days compared tothe earlier period.
    Perhaps WROC is ROC (5).
    While The Beatles sang “Eight days a Week” in the good ol’ days.

  33. Wondering how low gold goes during the Chinese holiday this week.It’s a seasonal tendency for gold bears (Central banks)to knock the price down past support levels.Hiatory says after Thursday,gold should rally hard again,back to 1350 levels.
    If thers’s a gold/equity correlation happening now,maybe equities are weak here as well.Hatd to say on that one.Good luck all.

  34. tejassamir77 says:

    Ready to rollover, C wave to 200dma.
    C wave will be done 1-3 days. Fast n Furious

    Market climbs UP using the stairs. But comes down in the elevator

    Ka ching

  35. gary61b says:

    ES I think 2724.25 is next to be tagged.

  36. Tough market to trade next few days. Minor 1 may have ended at 2754. B of int 4 may have ended. The 222 point move up from 2532 was fast and furious. .618 retrace of that move is down to 2616. Which could be minor 2. Could also be a minute 4 pull back to 2718 then up again to 2780 to end minor 1there. I have no idea. Leaning toward a pull back to 2718 for minute 4. Trade safe could be a rocky next few days.
    Good luck all

  37. phil1247 says:


    you are all very welcome !

  38. phil1247 says:

    es ……. i cant trade now but for those who can
    2734 traditional and 2733 extension (which previously failed )are under severe pressure

    usually a second failure would lead to swooooooooooooooooooossssh down
    maybe its different this time
    i would not want to be long here even if i could between 33 and 45
    as shorts and longs have broken .. consider a triangle forming

    maybe the boys want to pop the top before we flop?

    • phil1247 says:

      note…. these numbers may or may not line up with asas
      these are rogue DH calculations
      as mine usually are

      • chrisk44342 says:

        In my experience holidays are not good times to assess the market on that large a scale. You said yourself- maybe a triangle could form. Slow/choppy markets have a way of making the market looks like it’s indecisive, but it could also just be traders/managers squaring up before the holiday.

  39. vivelaamo says:

    If you follow ira you’ll know the target is now upper BB at 2856. I think it will be choppy grind up from him with sell offs being bought.

    Have a good week all.

  40. quickrick38 says:

    Sorry, but I’m going to have to agree with mg on this one. That “rocketing higher” is nothing more than a ‘b’ wave in a wave 4 which has already peaked. We’re now heading for below 2720.

  41. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  42. mcgcapital says:

    As someone who went short on Friday, it’s obviously not ideal to hear about Tony’s WROC signal being generated. That being said, I had a look back through the archive for other examples, and came across one near the end of August 2011 (https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/08/27/weekend-update-307/). Following that we traded sideways for 4 weeks and retested the low early October 2011, then began a massive uptrend.

    I can see something similar happening here. Usually volatility events don’t occur in isolation and it would be unusual to have 2 massive down weeks then go back to business as usual straight away. Reason we went down initially is because people wanted to pay a lower multiple with a 10 year at 2.9% than they did with it at 2.5%. That’s not changing anytime soon so doesn’t make sense to go straight back to new highs.

    Sideways could last until the March fed meeting when Powell does his press conference and they then begin to focus on Q1 earnings. Think it’s miles too early to be overly bullish, time for that was when we were extremely oversold before the snapback rally. Now it can go either way

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