Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2620. Volatility continued, but with market trading more balanced the slant this week was to the upside. On Monday the SPX hit 2673, pulled back to 2637 by Tuesday, rallied to 2702 by Wednesday, then continued higher for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 4.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 5.45%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: retail sales, the NY FED, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, business inventories, the Philly FED, industrial production, housing starts, building permits, export/import prices and consumer sentiment. Next week’s economic reports will be sparse and include existing homes sales and leading indicators.

LONG TERM: uptrend

Last Friday the Intermediate iv downtrend hit SPX 2533 for a 12% decline in only two weeks. At the low the market set up numerous positive divergences on the hourly/daily timeframes. The market responded by rallying nearly 100 SPX points in a couple of hours on Friday. Then continued that rally throughout this week. Although at a much slower pace. This week’s strong rally triggered a WROC buy signal. This suggests the Int. v uptrend, to new highs, is underway. Historically, more than 50-years, these signals have been 96% accurate.

The Major wave 1, of Primary III, bull market continues to unfold. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate iii then began to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5, and Int. wave iii, just ended in January 2018. Intermediate wave iv dropped 12% in just two weeks. The largest correction since the C-leg of the Primary II bear market. Keep in mind, price is always more important than time.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

After the technical setups last Friday we noted these types of setups have often accompanied downtrend lows. Especially after the quick, sharp, rally that followed that low on Friday. This week the market continued higher and triggered a WROC signal. Further suggesting Intermediate wave iv ended at SPX 2533. What to expect for Int. v?

That depends on how Int. v unfolds. Our ongoing target all along has been SPX 3000+ in 2 – 4 years. With this bull in its second year SPX 3000+ still remains the target. Historically, if new highs are made quickly the uptrend can make substantially more progress. If new highs are difficult to reach, the uptrend is like to end with just marginal new highs. With the first two uptrends of this bull market lasting only 2 months, let’s give this one at least until April. Medium term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.


The market has rallied 221 SPX points from last Friday’s 2533 low to this Friday’s 2754 high. During the advance there have been many swings of 20-30-40 points making it difficult to count short term. Quantitatively we just see one wave up from the low. This uptrend might end up being a difficult count like the end of the last uptrend.

Let’s see how it unfolds as it has only been one week from the low. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum declined off a negative divergence.


Asian markets were mostly positive and gained 1.7%.

European markets were mostly positive and gained 2.1%.

The DJ World index gained 4.2%, and the NYSE gained 3.8%.


Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.5%.

Crude continues to downtrend but gained 4.0%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 3.1%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 2.0%.


Monday: national holiday. Wednesday: existing home sales. Thursday: jobless claims and leading indicators. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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335 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Billy says:

    If minimum targets of 24810 and 2698 are hit in the next 24 hrs I’ll be a buyer there. Should be a half decent rally for ii of C.


  2. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Avi’s Advice february 20th,2018
    “With the market rally experienced over the past week, many in the media are now reconsidering their recent perspective regarding the demise of the bull market. Not only did the market strike the minimal upside target we laid out for members a week ago — once we broke through 2646 on the Emini S&P 500 — it even exceeded our minimal target by about 25 points.

    However, just as the market has everyone now considering how much more upside we can see, I think we may be setting up for another drop to begin this week. Due to the lack of impulsive patterns evident off the recent lows in many of the charts I am following, it would suggest the stock market is likely going to see a retest of the prior lows, or a lower low before this wave (4) has run its course.

    Again, I want to remind you that 4th waves are the most variable of the Elliott Wave 5-wave structure. For this reason, we almost have to expect many twists and turns, especially during the b-wave of that structure. Currently, we are still in the b-wave of this wave (4), and unless we see an impulsive drop below the 2700 support region on the S&P 500 SPX-0.25% we may remain in this b-wave for the next several weeks.

    In other words, should we drop below the 2700 region this week in a corrective and overlapping fashion, we will likely be only dropping in a (b) wave within a larger b-wave, as presented in the attached charts in yellow. However, if the market does provide us with an impulsive structure below 2700 for wave 1 of the c-wave down, then we will likely be targeting the 2400 region within the next few weeks. Yet, the drop we experienced on Friday off the high was not clearly the start of an impulsive structure.

    While the market has certainly struck the minimum target we set for this wave (4) between 2424 and 2539, the structure of the rally off that low is suggesting that this wave (4) will likely take more time and provide more whipsaw in the coming weeks. However, as long as we hold over the 2400 region support, my expectation is that we have a date with the 3011-3223 region for the S&P, which will likely be struck by the end of 2018 or early 2019. It will be at that point that I expect we can begin a 20%-30% correction.”
    Will he be Avi Gilburt or Avi Gartman,as he has been in gold.


    • quickrick38 says:

      Hi learned, I’ve been following him too…he’s had a rough year. Either you manage analysts or you are one. You can’t do both.


      • chrisk44342 says:

        right, as i have said for so long, predicting things via any theory is very difficult. Reacting to things is another story, as long as you have predictable and measurable stops with a reasonable risk/reward ratio.


  3. All this talk about TLT going lower to 110 posible 89 and TBT exploding upwards leaves it clear what will happen to six and dow. only one way to go… but it all depends on the Bond market not the other way around…


  4. Gary Lewis says:

    Anyone following TLT? https://www.tradingview.com/x/lxjJk9H9/ Possible three day test of the low today but massive head and shoulders top on the monthly chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/NvK817xn/ makes it a little treacherous. Short term option play maybe?


    • stan911 says:

      Gary TLT works opposite to stocks is that correct?


    • phil1247 says:

      …bond futures … similar to TLT
      looks like 4th wave now and im looking for a spike down to targets below

      HUUUUUGE target possible ( approx TLT 110 )
      if we can get thru the first two dotted yellow target lines


      • Gary Lewis says:

        Right, I get it. I did really well last year in TLT getting in at 117. I didn’t really believe that interest rates would ever go up. The TLT head and shoulders, if it breaks, shows a potential down to 85. Guess that’s one reason I’m bearish on the markets. If that happened . . . would it be allowed to happen? That is the question, and the basis for a bet on TLT at this point. But your wave count is compelling. Thanks


      • Gary Lewis says:

        Was remembering when I went against the crowd in 2016

        Gary Lewis says:
        February 8, 2016 at 9:22 am
        Nibbling on some calls here at Tony’s 1841 pivot. Closed out some more puts.
        February 8, 2016 at 1:11 pm
        You may be right on your weekly or monthly calls but we go straight to new highs from here is not digestible.

        Gary Lewis says:
        February 8, 2016 at 1:17 pm
        I am a perma-bear so I agree. But I didn’t like it when suddenly everyone else turned bearish. I guess I just like to bet against the crowd.

        Boy did i catch a lot of grief when I suggested that SPX was a buy at 1840…People were really nasty back then.


    • fionamargaret says:

      I have TLT going to 89, but that is just the computer printout…


    • phil1247 says:


      its tricky here gary because we are retesting the long near 117
      perfect place for a squeeze
      so i am ready to sell TBT if the extension short fails


  5. phil1247 says:

    SPX close 2727 ……….my favorite numbers !

    you all have till 15 min before close to pick
    good luck
    see ya !


  6. todays close 2730.41 the 50 day Moving Avderage battle on tomorrow.


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