Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening decline, DOW -255

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2720 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2732 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX rebounded to unchanged at 2732. Then it traded to SPX 2718 by 10:30. After that a rally to a higher high at SPX 2738 by noon. Then the market headed lower for the rest of the day. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2707, then bounced to close at 2716.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down today to start the holiday shortened week. The gap was immediately closed within the first half hour. Then after a lower low the market actually turned positive on the day. Afternoon trading, however, was all to the down side. See no problem with the pullback right here. The market had rallied 221 SPX points in one week without a quantified reversal. Now we have one: [2533]-2754-2707 so far. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and the 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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329 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    …. did you see that little nick of extension at es 29 ?
    and the bots pounced on it !

  2. phil1247 says:

    did the fed say something good or bad ?
    i still dont know

  3. pooch77 says:

    WROC does not appear to be working

  4. how about that 21 da moving average. hit like a wall.
    still short from last Thursday, and we may close in the red today.
    yields going up, Dollar going up, lets hope we breach the 2700.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Nice one Bears ball in your court now close bellow 2705 there goes bullflag turns into DT

  6. pooch77 says:

    Oh oh we tumbling down,no strong close

  7. phil1247 says:


    TBT >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> SPIKE !!!!!

  8. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Quick analysis from ZH.

  9. phil1247 says:

    ding !

    42 hit !

  10. not sure were we are but. only see 1 wave down from 2754
    2754 – 2707 47 points
    .618 retrace of that would be 29 points or 2736. so far we hit 2737.49
    i will become bullish if we can get over 2738 otherwise looking for some pull back of what ever degree. good luck

  11. H D says:

    Pretty impressive watching the market find balance right on Tony’s pivot going into FOMC.

    Get ready for new extentions and the 50 posts it requires to explain them. JMHO

  12. pooch77 says:

    Should find out in 45 minutes were market is going

  13. re abc123 chart last night…

    Can’t r/o that yesterday SPX completed minute wave iv and todays activity is minute wave 5 of minor wave 1. We might find out the answer after 2:00PM today. We’ll see.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    This is a wave 3 of some degree. Short if you dare.

  15. learnedmylesson25 says:

    If the FOMC mentions 4 rate hikes,S&P will retest 2530 and probably go through it.BitCon down today,gold non-comittal.GDX seemed to have a small +div on a 30 min chart that worked today,Could be wiped out by a hawkish Jerome Yellen Fed in seconds.HYG still needs to get through 86.50 for an all clear rally signal.I read some opinion pieces that Janet Powell wants to continue the balance sheet reductions no matter what it does to the equity market.I lean bearishly on the outcome today in both equities and gold.Hope I’m wrong.Good luck all.

  16. phil1247 says:

    everyone is short bonds/notes … except the commercials
    canary 10 yr is losing downside momentum
    if it doesnt go as advertised and break down ….
    .. everyone is going to be scrambling to cover shorts

  17. pooch77 says:

    If we close above 2740 we should go too 2800ish

  18. Bud Fox says:

    ref SP500 — would not surprise me, that the SP would rally higher, today…

  19. pooch77 says:

    I believe we break 2600 before we go any higher,we are stuck at 2731 and losing momentum

  20. i wouldnt be long here, Good luck

  21. fotis2 says:

    Added longs buy above 2730

    • phil1247 says:

      just holding …………stop pushed way up to es 31
      dont mind being out for fomc fireworks

      • pooch77 says:

        Afternoon could turn ugly

      • fotis2 says:

        Bullflag would invalidate with a break bellow 2705.Remember 2 bearflgs after the 1st bounce on 200ma the 2nd bearflag never made it to target invalidated with a break of 2618 I use patterns most of the time and when they break one way means reversal to the opposite way higher probability.

  22. mcgcapital says:

    Added back to shorts.. sell under 2750s

  23. fotis2 says:

    Bullflag break 4 hour 2816 next stop

  24. torehund says:

    Think Tonys big up signal is just right around the corner 🙂 Something is brewing.

  25. gary61b says:

    If ES is counting up 2724 should revisit then up again.

  26. scottycj1 says:

    The KEY level now is the .618 retrace at 2743……that will cause shorts to cover and longs to enter……should be a quick ride up to 2800 +

  27. dad1 says:

    We are back at the same level as yesterday’s high, knocking again…

  28. phil1247 says:

    chris ….. 34.75 target hit to the tick !
    took off half of spxl

  29. phil1247 says:


    maybe today we get our TBT SPIKE………
    now i am wondering which way it will go after all this sideways drift?
    daily boll band kink ( trading tip ) suggests it could be the other way

  30. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony

  31. phil1247 says:

    SPX 2728 is THE key number today …………..especially at the close

  32. Good morning all.

    I continue to believe that both Intermediate wave iv and minor wave 1 of intermediate wave completed. Tony C. and abc123 analysis. If this analysis is accurate, I expect the 61.8% LONG @ /ES 2703, to break today. Probably fill the gap first (dotted red line) and then trend lower as the day progresses. I like abc123 count and thus expect the pullback to continue to the 50% pullback area and Tony C’s pivot of SPX 2656 for a minor wave 2 bottom.

    1 caveat…38.1% pullbacks have been very common over the last few weeks so, I will watch this level to possibly add to my “long investment account” as I don’t want to miss minor wave 3. I will rely on DH to fine tune my entry. BTW, if the 61.8% long on abc123 (chart) analysis, then I would have to consider that, SPX is still trading in Intermediate wave iv….IMHO a low probability at this time.


    • sorry should have added..minor wave 1 of intermediate wave v. Also, should have added if the 61.8% LONG on abc123 chart, breaks, the probability is high, that SPX is still in Intermediate wave iv and I would expect SPX will retest the lows at SPX 2533 and possibly trade lower….

      • chrisk44342 says:

        If the market behaves the way it has for the last week or so, it will marginally take out the 61.8 mark on the 15 minute chart at 2725.50, then head down to 98

  33. quickrick38 says:

    Is anyone else as clueless as I am as to what this market does next?
    Furthermore, this market is nuts…while it was not part of my plan, I sold 20 puts and 10 calls yesterday morning because my gut said unload. Good thing too because the value of BOTH fell of the charts during the course of the day! OPEX was over and yet, the options market is behaving very badly. Should have made good profit over the weekend on the puts…profit was pitiful. Calls were worth more than I expected but they lost half their value by the end of the day. Granted, I should be thankful I got out when I did, but none of this is making any sense to me. Options are behaving like the $VIX anticipating a change in direction…absurd.

    • Anonymous says:

      Some of us know where we are. For example, I picked up the IWM puts yesterday at their stone cold low of the day. Today, expect the dollar to go to short term support with stocks, gold and crude rallying. After today watch the bottom fall out of the market as the dollar rallies strongly.

    • micky says:

      not the bottom yesterday but posted within minutes.Only scalping according to my system,and sold at 27 already.

  34. 123 abc says:

    BITCOIN: bear market resumes?

  35. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  36. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony.
    “Gold could get a boost as the U.S. government launches a series of auctions for $258B worth of debt this week; “if there is less than the required appetite for that mountain of debt, that could weaken the dollar and support gold,” says Ole Storer, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. “That leads me to believe that any correction in gold will continue to be a buying opportunity at this stage.””

    • fionamargaret says:

      Beethoven wrote this for his dying wife with all the grief and fury in which he was enwrapped. It was written as a String Quartet, which many prefer for its purity of feeling, but here it is transcribed for orchestra and diligently conducted by Bernstein.
      You will recognize a part of the music as used in “Band of Brothers.”……x

      • blubrd67 says:

        Thank you! I love his quartets, so this is interesting. Still prefer austere and contemplative quality of quartets’ sound.. like Végh Quartet.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Yes Blue I agree…a quartet portrays intimacy that is somewhat lost in full orchestral arrangement. I shall play your quartet tonight when I post Raymond James. x

  37. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

  38. stockop says:

    for better or worse I took out some shorts today. did not want to hold over a three day weekend and it ended up being for the better. lot of bearish charts. expecting some part of this decline to occur overnight. didn’t see that in this past correction. don’t know when it will be, but my gut says very soon. fwiw I also bought some calls today that are much longer dated. I still believe we are in a bull market.

  39. mcgcapital says:

    Still looks bearish to me overall, but took a third off my shorts near the lows today. Holding the rest for either a steep retrace or retest of lows in the next few weeks. Can’t see much reason for a new imminent uptrend without more volatility first. FTSE looks pretty terrible on the monthly, wouldn’t be surprised if it’s topped for this market cycle, going to be very difficult to get back up through the 7500s from here

  40. Xy Z says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Thanks also to Alistair S. for maintaining the FTSE100 chart.

  41. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  42. 123 abc says:

    A great Tony Tuesday update! Appreciate the details in regards to the quantified waves thus far.

  43. phil1247 says:

    SPX close was 2716.1

    Rick Jend says:
    February 20, 2018 at 1:30 pm

    WOW ! impressive Rick……….

  44. pooch77 says:

    Ok then Tony lets wrox ourselves up

  45. chrisk44342 says:

    As usual, thank you TC!

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