Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening decline, DOW -255

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2720 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2732 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX rebounded to unchanged at 2732. Then it traded to SPX 2718 by 10:30. After that a rally to a higher high at SPX 2738 by noon. Then the market headed lower for the rest of the day. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2707, then bounced to close at 2716.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down today to start the holiday shortened week. The gap was immediately closed within the first half hour. Then after a lower low the market actually turned positive on the day. Afternoon trading, however, was all to the down side. See no problem with the pullback right here. The market had rallied 221 SPX points in one week without a quantified reversal. Now we have one: [2533]-2754-2707 so far. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and the 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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329 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Holly Silver says:

    Because of the 5 day rise and 3 slow retrace I suspect the drop is over and a new leg up is upon us. I also expected 2700 to be a major target for determining extent of correction and it held today (barely). The drawdown today doesn’t get anyone excited for a strong opinion one way or the other. Hoped to see a stronger resolution but tomorrow is another day. Still sticking with longer term uptrend being intact. The visual appearance off the early 2016 pattern does not suggest a more complex or deeper drop. More likely a normal drop off a very steep rise. My conviction level however is not strong and therefore stepped aside till some clearer pattern resolves itself.

  2. dad1 says:

    Futures certainly catching a bid

  3. kjb0 says:

    In second measured move…ES 2696 target ? Above 2712.50 breaks the series?
    How is my homo-directional Phil?

  4. Jim B. says:

    Mr. Market,
    Please bring back my weekly rolling hills. I don;t want to have to learn to day trade this measured move crap…

  5. EL MATADOR says:

    get ready for a road trip to 2656 pivot pong

  6. CygnetNoir says:

    Looks like a BF during a BU, and the PB should end 2680’s-90’s. 2694.62 looks as good a penny as any.

  7. scottycj1 says:

    About to get a BUY signal on the 15 min Algo—SPX

  8. Gary Lewis says:

    anyone notice how SPX and SLV have been correlated lately? https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y5TeNtSU/

  9. keep it simple.
    Look for the the 50 DMA, today it offered resistance, and since the pullback began couple weeks ago the 20 and the 21 DMA offered last resistance and haven’t been broken. Don’t go long until we get a close above the the 50 DMA.

  10. Page says:

    Markets will close negative.

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      so its now bull above 2709.5
      target 2738 .25 es
      2729.97;meant nothing.
      Getting down to the nitty gritty.HYG continues leading down in the “W”.
      Page,looks like negative close here as well.(I never believed the rally in the first place).

      • exactly, you can make it complicated or keeping it simple. I like the simple way. I don’t day trade.. I usually hold my positions for several days and have been short since last Thursday. Been adding to the shorts since. Will get out and take some losses if we cross the 50 and ultimately the 20. But we have to get a close above those MA

      • phil1247 says:

        exactly …………. 2729.97 means nothing to me .. never did

        • phil1247 says:

          ext broke so it is bear below 2721.5 es ..you have your resistance now
          and of course the critical 2722.25 level which will not change

          dont know how much more simple it can get
          people want to make it hard

    • micky says:

      hey page,i miss pooch!

  11. Lee X says:

    And there’s also Tony’s pivot

  12. Back for just a second. An important test is coming up in the next few minutes.

    1. Yesterday afternoon into the overnight session, a low to low extension traded to a profit target to the tick.
    2. From that anchor, /ES traded to that 61.8% SHORT at 2731.51 (I mentioned that level earlier) to the tick and /ES has been selling off.
    3. The final test is 2709.83. If tat level defends and rallies, New higher highs will trade today/tomorrow. If 2709.83 breaks, today’s gap, 2696.75, 2693.50 and 2679 are lower targets.

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