SHORT TERM: 4th straight gap down opening, DOW +567
Overnight the Asian markets lost 3.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.0%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight, in volatile trade, and the market gapped down at the open for the low of the day at SPX 2593. The SPX had closed at 2649 yesterday, after dropping 113 SPX points on Monday. The market then started to rally and hit SPX 2682 in only a 1/2 hours time. Quite a volatile market. After that it dropped to SPX 2620 by 10:30, hit 2669 by 12:30, then dropped to 2628 by 2:30. Another rally followed to SPX 2701 by 3:30. Then the market backed off to SPX 2695 at the close. This market is moving in one hour, what normally takes one week.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 2.05% and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.65%. Bonds were flat, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: consumer credit at 3pm.
Yesterday market volatility went into overdrive, as the DOW traded in a 1600 point range. Today the range was a bit less than 1200 points. Both days were more than the entire range of the previous week. This market is sometimes moving about 3% in one hour. This is insane activity, especially with hardly any fundamental news to drive it. Nevertheless, it only took one day after the weekend update for the SPX/DOW to confirm an Int. iv downtrend. Normally the market is close to a bottom when that occurs. While 4th waves have been fairly mild since 2016. This one has been quite violent. This is normally sign that the next run to new highs will end the bull market. In example: 1987, 2007 and 2014. For those trading this market, you are a better trader than most. Good luck!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Thanks Mr C for the viewpoint.Ira sez next resistance is 2798–the 18 d.Good luck all.
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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article61487.html
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Thanks Chris Kimble
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=1d12f666-b7ec-4717-9e33-4dced3dac4c7&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James
Thanks Tony….and everyone xx
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Fiona we need that oscilllator line to roof it for a couple of years.
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Thanks Fiona, lovin’ those C.K.R. charts ! et al. Have appreciated Jeff Saut for decades.
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Love him too David…he is a good man.
I did invite RJ’s guys to join us on the blog….thought it might be lively…x
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I will tell you another story Tore, before we get down to working on the sequence for life extension…
My parents’ house was quite near to the Naval dockyard, and of course all the girls were entranced by the sailors from afar that were in our lives for a very short time, and with whom we danced and dreamed.
There was this one particular officer from Bergen, who wanted me to go meet his family. He left and I was mooning around the house playing music and doing my crying thing as only sixteen year olds can do.
My aunt put her arm around me and said it was the magic of the uniform..underneath he was just the same as all the other boys…so instead of becoming a Norwegian bride, continued with my education….so many different intersections in life……x
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In our sub-conscious mind we know very well where we are headed, although we act surprised at every turn. We get closer to our real self as we go along, unless we choose to go stale…. too afraid to meet our destiny or destinies.
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Good comment
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Wisdom indeed.
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Fiona, JS has frequently mentioned the danger in the market if the December low is exceeded in the new year. The December low was exceeded yesterday. You might want to send him a note and ask him to comment on that. Thanks.
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I shall ask him to address that Michael…hope you are doing well x
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I am dumber than most here as my trading account will testify to. But I just read that
“This is normally sign that the next run to new highs will end the bull market. In example: 1987, 2007 and 2014”
Do you still expect DOW 30,000-36,000 as previously stated.
What would that make the current count. I am sure it is on the chart but I am too dense to work it out. On the S and P monthly it looks like a blue P3 (primary is in blue) of SC3 . On the weekly P3 had 3 and we are in 4 with 5 to come and then P4?
Is that right??
Many thanks
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The answers in the weekend update
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Equivalent to what took place in 2011
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America is not prospering, the party is over people. Even if we were to make a new high it doesn’t make a damn difference.
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newbie…. not cool. I strongly disagree. USA will always prosper.
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HD, no its not cool but it cant be stopped.
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you have something more to contribute to society than blogging doomsday theories. Pick yourself up and pull you’re own weight. Enough! USA!
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HD, you look at it as doom day theories, I look at is as USA falling apart is not only possible but likely. I do pull my own weight , thank you very much. I am and will be prepared , where many will be blindsided.
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You’ll have to invite us over to your party! 😉
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My party
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Tx Abc
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123, again. Your charting skills! nice work amigo. Not sure about that 5th but I appreciate the work.
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I’ll take the fifth on the 5th.
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Seems like avery plausible count. The retest of Dow 23 000 (Armstrongs line in the sand)is done, this area might be tested more than once before a definitive liftoff.
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crazy looking bullish reversals in what seems like the entire market. people were buying everything today. lot of bears still out there. look for the way we decline (if we even do). impulsively or abc… if this does do some kind of retrace expect it to be shallower than you’re comfortable buying. i think there is a possibility that the steepest part of this bull move may be yet to come. there is potential for a gigantic squeeze imo. wouldn’t be a short left standing in this scenario… TIL there are actually people who shorted the market after Trump won and were just covering in January. how many people seized this past week to trade on their political beliefs? well, i think with the current media anti-trump tirade that could be an f’ing gigantic amount.
metals with the breakout retest. collectively they look like goners if we don’t start rallying soon. few gold/silver miners may have bottomed (others look disgusting)….equities up, gold up?
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Thank you TC.
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Hi All
Per DH…currently the charts are bullish on the weekly, bearish on the daily and bullish on the 15 minute trend at the NYSE close. IMHO, that is really meaningless at this point as the bull/bear line in the sand continues to be /ES 2702.50 (rounded off), never breached today. That is the 61.8% daily SHORT /ES came close but didn’t brake it!!!!!
1. If the level is breached, in confirms to me, the low is in, Int. iv and I expect an immediate 50% retracement and if defended, then rally to new highs…in a stair step fashion of course. I would think that on a brake and retrace that would be wave 1 of some degree, the 50% pullback, wave 2, etc.
2. As long as this level is defended, then at a minimum, /ES can trend lower to a few targets below, the first test is 2690.25 and /ES is testing that level.c /ES needs to brake the 61.8% LONG at 2688 to open the door to lower targets.
Bottom line….. 2702.50 is the bull/bear line in the sand.
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Last post…. as I am packing for a 10 day vacation to Aruba. /ES is currently trading at 2783.50…the 61.8% LONG was breached and therefore, I expect to see additional selling in the overnight session. The call is a snapshot in time….as in based upon the chart above and /ES 2783.50.
Obviously if /ES goes down hard in the overnight session and tomorrow the recent low was then minute wave “A” and this afternoon’s high was minute wave “B” and /ES would then be trading in minute “C” down.
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Asa, I think you meant to say minor not minute. Have a nice trip.
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Thanks Gary…
“….I would think that on a brake and retrace that would be wave 1 of some degree, the 50% pullback, wave 2, etc…” in both posts above should have added a question mark and said minute?, minor?….yep, probably minor and I will leave it at that…. for now.
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Tony based on your inverted 4 year cycle would you expect major one to top approx in the Q4 to Q1 area?
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Thanks Tony
DOW
https://invst.ly/6k5a9
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Well 3 waves down to 2593 from 2873 is 280 points
If a B wave on deck.
.3875 retrace is 2702
.50 retrace 140 to 2733
.618 retrace 173 to 2766
My preferred count at this moment is we reach 2733 then C down
Then 280 again 2486
Over 2766 int 4 is over.
Best of luck
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Tony noticed the S&P 500 Sep 1955 dropped -10.5% then keep rallying to new highs didn’t retest lows just consolidated for while after the initial bounce from the low. 1954-57 bull market was a period of interest rate normalisation by the Fed removal of artificial influences. 55-57 was very volatile period markets ultimately made higher highs.
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You are correct!
One year 19.5% decline bear market followed
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