SHORT TERM: 4th straight gap down opening, DOW +567
Overnight the Asian markets lost 3.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.0%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight, in volatile trade, and the market gapped down at the open for the low of the day at SPX 2593. The SPX had closed at 2649 yesterday, after dropping 113 SPX points on Monday. The market then started to rally and hit SPX 2682 in only a 1/2 hours time. Quite a volatile market. After that it dropped to SPX 2620 by 10:30, hit 2669 by 12:30, then dropped to 2628 by 2:30. Another rally followed to SPX 2701 by 3:30. Then the market backed off to SPX 2695 at the close. This market is moving in one hour, what normally takes one week.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 2.05% and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.65%. Bonds were flat, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: consumer credit at 3pm.
Yesterday market volatility went into overdrive, as the DOW traded in a 1600 point range. Today the range was a bit less than 1200 points. Both days were more than the entire range of the previous week. This market is sometimes moving about 3% in one hour. This is insane activity, especially with hardly any fundamental news to drive it. Nevertheless, it only took one day after the weekend update for the SPX/DOW to confirm an Int. iv downtrend. Normally the market is close to a bottom when that occurs. While 4th waves have been fairly mild since 2016. This one has been quite violent. This is normally sign that the next run to new highs will end the bull market. In example: 1987, 2007 and 2014. For those trading this market, you are a better trader than most. Good luck!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Chart of the day is $ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk
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My kind of chart!! Thanks
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EXCELLENT BOURAQ!
I’ll hypothesize that Major 1 will hit the top of the blue channel and Major 2 will hit the bottom
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👍👍
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Expecting a test of the overnight 2529 low in SPX. Imho the bottom can’t/shouldn’t be printed in the overnight session as that messes up with the charts/counts of the guys using regular session only. I mean, Tony has the low at only 2593.
Or maybe I am being too naive here…
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As an EW illiterate, trying very hard to interpret, so end of bull market as in “cyclical” (~2yrs duration) within a “secular” bull market once int 5 completes?
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Believe OEW is expecting the equivalent to what took place in 2011 —a possible 5 to 8 bear market retracing approx 20%
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definitely would like to hear your thots Tony. A done now this is b with c to follow in your opinion,?All of wave complete already and up from here? Just reiterating everyones questions re your thots. Great to have your update–this one kinda a “tease” in what is not said
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some of us think the low is in
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muchas gracias Tony, good to hear your thots..to a number of questions asked by folks..I disagree [do not think the low is in] so a chance for me to watch and learn. Ain’t gonna trade this market personally, unless it does make a db or new lower low. Healing Is.
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Hi tony. You saying that 4 is done and we are on 5.
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Tony when you say ending a bull market do you think that the anticipated major 2 will be a greater than 20% decline and thus a bear market? Or did the recent action steer you away from your current count?
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Major 2 bear
will take an aweful lot to change the P3 view
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Hi Tony and healthy recovery.
My guess is w-4 of major one, but having seen so many absurd developments in the nano-cap world nothing will surprise me anymore 🙂 On the bullish side i can see Ruts recent decline could be a C-wave in a large continuation pattern. Bearish view is that I see 2 finished abcs since 09, the last much smaller than the former. Not an easy times for anyone these days.
Have to send a good wish to all the migrants and domestic sufferers around the world hoping they will see better times ahead.
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Thx Tony
Certainly is insane !
All my best to you sir , hope you’re healing well
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thx Lee
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Tony, much anticipated update, been holding breath for 24 hours!
1. Do you think that the 2593 low marked the end of Intermediate-iv wave, or just Minor-a of Intermediate-iv wave?
2. How high of a bounce would be required in order for a tentative Intermediate-iv wave label?
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Great Qs. Curious what Tony has to say. I think a new low is odds on. This type of negative momentum requires another low to work off. The conditions are usually less violent (lower VIX, marginally less fear, etc.) around that new low.
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Int. iv
market is too volatile for any kind of price level right now
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Much appreciated Tony, thank you.
Would be quite surprised if Intermediate-iv is complete —such a quick affair, not even 24 trading hours. Also, the futures have already retraced 50% —feels like a rapid b-wave bounce. Was thinking of something like the following…
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Sir, are there enough waves to count the completion of Int IV yet? Thanks, Mr Caldaro
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Well, that is a great question 56rambler…
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Wondering if there’s only one quantifiable wave from the ATH?
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three so far
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Thanks, Tony. Watching these lines today.
http://www.traderscrossover.com/store/index.php?p=intra
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