REVIEW
The week started at the all-time closing/print high of SPX 2873. After a gap down opening on Monday/Tuesday the SPX traded down to 2818. A gap up opening was sold off on Wednesday as the pullback dropped to a new low of SPX 2813. Thursday/Friday also had gap down openings, and the selling accelerated on Friday. After hitting SPX 2760 late Friday, the market ended the week at 2762 (-111 points). For the week the SPX/DOW lost 4.0%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 3.6%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative reports 11:3. On the downtick: the ADP, Chicago PMI and ISM. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the CPI, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence/sentiment, pending home sales, construction spending, monthly payrolls, factory orders, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s highlights: ISM services and consumer credit.
LONG TERM: uptrend
After a 10-month uptrend with nothing larger than a 1.43% weekly decline, and the market closing at its all-time high last Friday, the market sold off at the start of the week and continued declining right into the Friday close. Down 3.85% for the week. The largest weekly drop since January 2016. Intermediate iv underway? When we look back to previous corrections during this bull market we find them rather small: 72, 110 and 119 points. This decline is already 113 points, almost as large as the biggest correction of the bull market. In percentage terms the corrections have been a bit larger: 3.3%, 5.0% and 5.6%. This decline is already 3.9%. Lots of damage for just one week.
The long-term count remains unchanged. Major wave 1, of Primary III, bull market underway. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Intermediate iii then subdivided. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5, and Intermediate iii, may have just ended a week ago Friday. If Int. iv is indeed underway, would not expect too much more than a 5% correction, before an Int. v uptrend carries the market to new highs.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway ?
As noted above, the current pullback is acting more like a correction than a pullback in this bull market. Even though indices were extremely overbought, which they have been for weeks and weeks, and there were some daily negative divergences on the DOW/NAZ/NDX. There was little warning, if any, of what would happen this week.
What we did notice, as the decline was unfolding, is that on Wednesday the market confirmed 5 waves up from the Minute iv SPX 2557 low. We thought nothing of it since the five waves were clearly lopsided: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2873; wave 1 (33 pts.), wave 3 (80 pts.) and wave 5 (266 pts.). Also wave 3 was only 2 weeks, while wave 5 wave 2 months. Naturally we thought that 5th wave was actually a third wave of a larger structure. So much for that thinking. Medium term support is now at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.
SHORT TERM
As you have probably noticed by now. The short term count we have been tracking is now the alternate count, posted on the hourly chart. And the primary count is that Intermediate wave iii has completed at SPX 2873, and is posted on the daily chart. Either way, short term, the market is extremely oversold and due for at least a bounce.
Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely oversold. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were all lower and lost 1.4%.
European markets were all lower and lost 2.7%.
The DJ World index dropped 4.1%, and the NYSE dropped 4.1%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 1.1% on the week.
Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 1.0% on the week.
Gold is still in an uptrend but lost 1.1%.
The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.
NEXT WEEK
Monday: ISM services. Tuesday: the trade deficit. Wednesday: consumer credit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims.
Covered my short at 2535 mentioned this morning. That was luck. I may short again, if 2705 caps tmrw
LikeLike
Expanding patterns all over the place, volatility makes it dangerous. Fast and furious going forward and if trend continues upwards we are still leaving behind a long tooth…Say no more 🙂
LikeLike
Anyone shorting es 2700?
LikeLike
yep
LikeLike
Lol volatility is too volatile for me today. Didn’t touch all day though I wanted to. Maybe tomorrow
LikeLike
Im planning on shorting 2712 area assuming we open up green.
B wave
2593-2682 89 point
2682-2623 60
2623 plus 89 gets you 2712.
Then a C wave down to A=C from 2712 2432 in a 3 wave sequence
See what tony has to say and see what tomorrow brings
LikeLike
Didn’t wait for the round number. Shorted SPX at 2693.76 for a retest of the 2529 low. High risk so I’m betting 15 point loss only.
LikeLike
Dow bounced 2000 points. Bottom is in!
Newbie and his cronies go quiet.
Goodnight all.
LikeLike
Cmon man. I think there was action yesterday that could be capitalized and traded and today it was too crazy/risky to trade. Unless you bought at 8am and ride it out today of course. I doubt many made $ today but best move looks to have been long at 2:00. Just out of meetings but looks to me like a decent day would be 2-4% gains, whereas yesterday was near 100%…ie less excitement. GL to ya
LikeLike
Yesterday was scary. Especially overnight. Many would have lost their shirts yesterday too. The rally since is a little bit more mundane and to my liking. I prefer boring grinds up. Slow and steady wins the race.
I suspect a lot of people will be looking to short this rally. I think we will see new all time highs by end of month.
GL to you too.
LikeLike
Market bypassed the triangle. Now trying to close above 24872. Note HOD 24858. 45 mins to go, can it do it!
LikeLike
Both YM and ES at the HWB. One a little over and the other a little under. That’s one methodology. The other is a bullish reversal with a close above 24872 which will have longer lasting effects. One lower down bullish reversal already in the bag for the Howitzer today.
LikeLike
Okay, closed above 24872, an Armstrong number the way. Bulls can relax somewhat. Nevertheless this market is still highly volatile and therefore treacherous.
LikeLike
Dow climbs 1500 points from lows and nothing but silence. Yesterday the blog was going to explode.
LikeLike
Now waiting for Tony to give his views. I was looking for SPX 2700 yesterday night at some point. Forgot that market does that in less than 24 hours lol
LikeLike
NDX 6750 might be the next target. Need to hold strong around 6590 area for that to happen.
LikeLike
The amazing thing is that we have only retrace 38.2 of the decline from SPX top. That means that it’s possible this is wave 4 of A for Int iv, need more evidence to weigh in on that or if that was all of int iv, or all of A of int iv.
LikeLike
Think FTSE will pop up and finish the week in the 7300s, then probably keep trading the 7000-7400 range for a few weeks. Usually after a massive capitulation event like last night we don’t get back to the low in short order, maybe a retest after some choppy trade. Would expect a more substantial rally once the volatility ETF thing dies down and people realise it’s not systemic (yet). Very similar to August 2015 so far.. was certainly uncomfortable holding longs at the lows this morning
LikeLike
Neely’s thots fwiw, not great over the last few years, been doing better lately, in this case i agree but that don’t mean nothin–>> I’m confident the worst is not over with this markets decline; I’m waiting for the market’s “fear factor” to increase before we attempt entry. Be patient. For subscribers, I might have some buys later today or this week but the bulk of new buying will occur only after another market “scare” occurs. <<
LikeLike