Thursday update

SHORT TERM: unbalanced markets continue, DOW -1033

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.0%. US index futures were down big early, then recovered to about flat at the open. The SPX opened at 2685, three points above yesterday’s close, then immediately headed lower. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower. By 11:30 the market had dropped to SPX 2641, rallied to 2660 by noon, then dropped to 2616 by 1pm. That is nearly 3% decline on absolutely no news, or even rumors. Then after a rally to SPX 2651 by 1:30the market dropped into the close. Ending the day at SPX 2581.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 3.95%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 4.05%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude fell $1.45, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots.

After nine months of an uptrending market, with the SPX climbing from 2329 – 2873, 23%. A late January pullback turned into an avalanche of selling, when the market dropped more than it had at any time during 2017. What followed was an unbalanced market being fed by its own volatility. Thus far the market had dropped 9.7% in just 7 trading days. Rebounded back nearly 50% of that decline in just two days. And now is heading back down and making lower lows: [2873] 2593-2728-2581 so far. Until this market gets some stability the trend remains extremely volatile and down. Short term momentum ended the day with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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286 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    SP500…do we have any idea, where the price top is ????

  2. quickrick38 says:

    Looking over all the possible counts I have it down to two:
    The short term bearish count is that we finish this ‘B’ wave by going up into the S&P 2700’s and then head south in the bigger ‘C’ wave.
    The short term bullish count is that we finished the correction (with a double bottom in the case of the ES) and head straight up to new highs.

    In either case, I’m expecting a run up to at least 2727. I would be surprised if we didn’t do that.

    Of course, once we get to new highs it won’t take terribly long before we get the bigger pullback.
    Good luck all.

    • quickrick38 says:

      I’m currently long Silver and the SPY and I’ll be looking at shorting volatility up to about 2727 or so. After that I’ll wait and watch.

      • NEWBIE says:

        quickrick, Seems like so many are expecting more downside on gold / silver. Looks like you do not feel the same way.

        • quickrick38 says:

          That would be correct NEWBIE! I’ll grant you there are arguments on both sides. The best is the one that a poster on this board pointed out and that is a triangle in the silver futures chart. And, while triangles can break either direction the higher percentage is that this pattern is indicating that silver keeps dropping. On that same side of the argument are those that claim that if the dollar goes up silver and gold go down. I don’t buy into THAT nonsense because silver and gold are global commodities – what any one currency does has minimal effect on the price of metals. Of course, there’s always the fundamental arguments about supply and demand. But even beyond that, metals can be a fear trade. When metals are high and typically spiking up, it is most likely fear that is driving up the price of metals. Note that as soon as the budget deal passed – producing a lot more debt than anticipated, silver stopped dead in its tracks and started up.

          No one likes the US debt. It’s nothing but very ugly. Wall street doesn’t like debt…period. So much for fundamentals.

          One of the big reasons I’m taking the tac that silver is going up is actually quite interesting. Recently, silver has been behaving very “fibonacci-like”. I’ll explain; The first 1-2 in silver which included the rise from 13.62 to 21.207 and the retrace back down to 15.145, was a retrace of 0.799 (greater than 0.764). The next 1-2 in silver; up to 18.16 and back down to 15.645 is also in that same ballpark. Silver has been giving us deep retraces, typically around 0.764. Consequently with this last run up and retrace, I had set my target for shorting to 16.13…the exact 0.764 retrace. What happened? Silver retraced to exactly 0.764…hit 16.13 exactly and immediately turned up.

          My point is simply this; since the SEC/DOJ arrested 5 or 6 traders a couple weeks ago and charged them with manipulation of the metals markets, we’re now seeing perfect fibs. In other words with just a few arrests, the metals market stopped acting so weird. Isn’t it amazing what a few arrests can do?

          Now, this last “retrace” could be counted as either a 5 wave drop OR, an ‘(abc)ABC’ so, you can bet I’ll be watching the current rise to see if is a retrace of the drop or if it keeps going. Also, I learned a long time ago that if I follow the so-called experts counts I do terrible in the market. If I follow my own counts I do pretty well. Of course, if silver continues up I’ll add to my calls. Good luck.

    • quickrick38 says:

      Note well, if this rise to the 2700’s is in the form of an ‘abc’ odds favor a deeper IV. On the other hand if it is impulsive then chances are we are going straight up to new highs.

    • Bud Fox says:

      Yes, agree with your 2700’s view. Bull market is not complete.
      But, it is no longer cheap, either….

  3. torehund says:

    Mother earth getting zonish.

  4. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Last Updated: Feb 9, 2018 7:56 p.m. EST
    Delayed quote
    0.78 0.92%
    After Hours Volume: 294.2K
    If this is any indication,Sunday night futes will be up 300 dow points–minimum.False breakdown probable.Off to the races again.We’ll see.

  5. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony….and everyone xx

  6. torehund says:

    Same applies here in Norway, toll stations popping up everywhere to tax drivers which also own a house.

  7. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and all. Moon next.

  8. Great weather and food/drink in Aruba.
    I am going to play this as the possibility that /ES or SPX may have completed intermediate wave iv. I will wait until /ES breaks 2651 as that would open the door to an additional 50 point rally to /ES 2703.75. I think there is so much money on the sidelines waiting to go back that there could easily be a rally straight up to 2703, with no or little chance of “technically” getting in. By going long with a tight stop (and trailing the rally with a tight stop) there is a possibility that if /ES continues higher it could also break the bull/bear line in the sand and that would confirm a swing trade long. If the 50% SHORT @ 2703.75 is defended, I exit my long.

    • phil1247 says:


      the long from 2566 es has already hit its target and popped thru 2628 short entry
      now we are on the second series up on 15 min chart
      i did not take it because i wanted to enjoy my weekend
      and will start fresh on monday…
      enjoy your vacation……
      … our vacation ends in a few days

      freezing connecticut awaits us both

      • NEWBIE says:

        Phil, what is your take on gold? up or down from here?

        • phil1247 says:

          in a series down ….gc

          …next target 1302 which is also the .50 retrace of long from lows
          key support at 1287 otherwise 1243 retest

          .. i always want to see shorts broken to tell me where support
          is other wise you can average yourself down into oblivion
          by buying potential support levels
          and then puke it up at the low

      • Hi Phil….yes but the 61.8% retrace at /ES 2651.75 hasn’t been tested/breached….yet. I rather not try and catch a falling knife by going long at Friday’s close. I am happy to wait until that level is breached before going long…especially when I’m on a hot sunny beach in Aruba….till Friday!

  9. learnedmylesson25 says:

    COT chart for gold is not bullish enough yet to look for a rally from this aspect.It’s barely retrenched from bearish territory.Looks like 2-3 weeks of working off excesses before gold can make a move up.Question:Does BitCon,HYG start to rally?That would be a helluva fake breakdown on HYG If it gets above 85.20 again and takes off.That’s one indicator I’m watching–with VIX under 20,close behind.Good luck all.Have a great weekend

  10. Bud Fox says:

    Re: SP500 Pattern. 1st. the cuddo’s for me work. Should
    go to Tony C. He is the man that has made, his own great
    investment record. And, provided a path for us, who are\
    trying to learn investment wave counting. That said. SP500
    appears to have made a 5 wave decline low, at SP 2532. We
    are now, heading higher, likely a lot higher. There is time for
    those who wish to participate in what looks like a grand duper rally
    higher. To new highs in SP. Thanks Tony C….

  11. stockop says:

    reversals in nearly every sector. longed too early yesterday. added near the lows today and finished the position in the last 30. it seems like a ton of people caught that. i think we’ll get a better idea next week. i am expecting a big green sunday night. if we gap up… i think most of the move could leave retail out.

    producers/miners showing some life with the rest of the market… hope it’s for real.

  12. blackjak100 says:

    It is possible to count a completed DZZ at 2535. All the squiggles work and it equates to a 43% retrace of wave 3 (2084-2873) which is typical sharp wave 4 retrace. It also alternates nicely with sideways wave 2 correction.

  13. Bud Fox says:

    I have SP 2876 as a final prog high…for this market

  14. vivelaamo says:

    Above 2728 and new ATHs. Sticking with RJ call that if bottom in we will see consolidation before the next big rally.

    • One positive thing is this is the first time in this down trend that we started positive,made a lower low,and ended higher than this morning’s bounce. Fingers crossed.

  15. 123 abc says:

    I guess that Intermediate-iv is complete? At least the VIX may suggest so.

    Interesting to note that the DOW futures didn’t retest the 6th Feb lows, but the SPX futures created a PERFECT double bottom —feel a bit dubious about that.

    Wild week, hope everyone is well. Appreciate the great comments on the blog. Look forward to the weekend update from the chief.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Look at Feb 2016 bottom. Spx slight overshoot while DOW made higher low. Looks quite similar.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..potential contracting diagonal downward means lower yet to come…and all the folks that wanted to get in can climb aboard….
        But enough of this..Valentine’s Day coming up…so exciting x

  16. tommyboys says:

    Greed/Fear = 8…

  17. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Like a puppy following way behind its mother,GDX pulls itself up from a sure dive–WITH HYG and equities.HYG had a monster break of previous support at 85.20–fell to 84.07 and is now at 85.01,the scene of the crime.Guess who propped HYG up at the right time,coincidentally at the SPX 200d.Pure baloney.But it is what it is.

  18. Looking more and more like 2300 level for a bottom

    • Page says:

      Nope. Watch futures rocket higher Sunday night. VIX will collapse.

      • I agree we open higher, cause with 3 waves down, we only finished minor a.
        Minor a

        Minor b
        2532-2650 possible

        Minor c
        2650-2299 where a= c assuming b gets to 2650

        • stcoleridge says:

          minor b goes higher than 2650, if indeed it is minor b. It hit 2638 already a few minutes ago. 2703 at least.

          • Will see, also aligns with Phil’s bull bear at 2751

            Sp closed 2619.55 another 30 points on Monday would be a 118 points up and worth a short to me.

            Let’s see what Monday brings. Enjoy your weekend

            • Also, if only minor a 2873 -2532 is 341 points
              A few retrace levels to watch
              .318 is 108 points to 2640
              .3875 is 132 points to 2664
              .5 is 170 points 2702
              .618 is 210 points 2742 over that down wave is over

        • elmer510 says:

          From 2872 down to 2299 is 573 points wich is 20% and definitely not an Intermediate wave 4. Compare with the IM2 at Tony’s chart.

          ttmb’s suggestion implies another kind of count than Tony’s – I would say.

          • Major 4 instead of int 4. With this being the shot above the bow market bull is coming to and end. Another 600-800 points from their to 2900-3100 to nd this bull. Then a 50 percent cut to 1500. Just 1 option. Looking at many. Also possible for int 4 to be over today. Either way 2640-2664 area another very good short oprutunity. Just looking at many possibilities.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Nice call earlier page. Crazy market!

  19. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Whoever controls HYG,controls equities.

  20. llerias7 says:

    Happy Hour is coming again! SPX will breakdown 2530 and the panic will take place! Bears atack 6.0!

  21. Bud Fox says:

    my Max up, is 2650

  22. tommyboys says:

    Tagged the SP 200 – Volatility will likely relax now and we’ll rally next few days. Then we’ll have t review…

  23. lunker1 says:

    phil 2618.5 to 2530.5 the .618 at 2584.79 just broke

  24. scottycj1 says:

    Dis the 200 DMA at your own risk

  25. vivelaamo says:

    Nice bounce at the lows. Bottom in?

  26. phil1247 says:

    SPX close 2592…..
    thats my story and im stickin to it
    anyone else ???

  27. gary61b says:

    Tony has the POS. DIV. marked and close to his pivot range.

  28. wildmarkets says:

    Tony, you still think this is Int 4. or this is Wave 2 pullback?

  29. markets dont bottom on fridays. Margin requirements into the close Monday could be ugly and the bottom

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