SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +23
For the first three days of this week the Asian markets have lost 1.8%, and the European markets have lost 2.0%. The US market was closed Monday, and gapped down at the open on both Tuesday and Wednesday. This would suggest the SPX was also down hard. But it is actually down less than 0.5% for the week.
From last week’s all-time high of SPX 2917 the market has dropped exactly 40 points to today’s low of 2877. More than expected at this stage of the rally. But quite normal for this uptrend. The non-quantified short term wave count we were tracking did not work out. SPX 2917 did end Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3. Wave 2 might have ended today at SPX 2877. Pullbacks of this degree, during this uptrend, have been as much as 50+ points. So maybe a bit more downside before the uptrend resumes. There are, however, positive divergences on both the SPX and DOW hourly charts. Short term support at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
When the recently completed wave 4 retrace of wave 3 first started and initially fell short of hitting the 38.2, I was thinking, “Oh boy here we go with another nasty wave 4. So even though it shot up quite a bit after the first ‘abc’ down, I started looking for 2882, the 50% retrace. I was fairly confident that we would hit the 2882, so I sold all my calls. And, it very, very gradually worked it’s way back down and did in fact hit the 2882. Actually, it dropped a few points below that. I wasn’t really surprised by that overshoot, but I was a bit curious…
I said to myself, ‘I wonder why it overshot by 4 pts or so? Maybe there’s a trend line? So, I opened up the chart a bit and SURE ‘NOUGH there it was…it dropped to the previous all time high – now acting as support!
You guys can talk fundamentals all you want but sometimes the tech charts are absolutely amazing. Of course, after we hit the bottom of wave 4, and went up 5, we had another deep retrace…to 2882 – of course. The numbers are fascinating.
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thanks tony,
….for all you put into the forum, … and the market insights you share.
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Good morning all.
Very bullish price structure on DAX (fut) on multiple time frames, including +div and double bear-trap. I am positioning long here @ 12004 and expecting very strong performance in Q4. Aimho Glta.
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Thanks Freddie, hope you are right, i went long pretty much where you did.
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as far as I’m concerned there’s a half dozen valid counts for NQ/YM/ES
RTY on the other hand looks about as clear as it can be…. URTY calls since 103. pretty much blew the account up because I don’t know how to take a profit. luckily, I’d been there before (tho not with the tuition fee I had to pay this time around) and the loss convinced me I was wrong and flipped before i went to 0. would have been up a ridiculous amount if i hadn’t gotten weak hands and just stayed long (or taken the 200pt naz drop profit). back to back mistakes is like a gut punch. thankfully, I am young. the school of hard knocks is brutal especially in this game with 20/20 hindsight. calculating just how much you could be up if you had the capital you did prior to the mistake is depressing. live and learn.
not one to bet against tech but I have been waiting for a while now for the changing of the guard. see some wanna be leaders emerging….maybe the outside day reversals in some of the tech stocks will actually work for once. as MGC keeps saying, institutions need to put their money somewhere. out of tech into Dow???
much thanks for everything you do Tony. I’ve learned a lot through this blog that I don’t think I would have had the luxury to in any other day and age. thank you to all the posters who share their opinions and analysis. i feel like i learn something new every day whether its from Tony or the many great posters on here.
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Hope we close over 2900 tomorrow, if not I will join all you bears.
See what happens tomorrow.
Good luck all
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IMO…..do not recall anyone talking about Bear market stocks, such as SDS.
Alas….one day, you will. It is just a matter of “time”….
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Thanks Chris Kimble
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=b0b0053e-cb3d-484d-af80-c143f140f488&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James….Charts of the Week
Thanks and love to Tony…..and everyone xx
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Fiona, did CK draw those channels on the Hang Seng after the fact? I see them as just random stuff that may or may not work.With my drawing method that was drawn way back, the weekly hit the third resistance line on the dot. Now I am waiting to see what happens as it approaches my support lines. Btw the DJI hit my daily second resistance line also on the dot before the latest PB.
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Be afraid very afraid. Like I warned several times Sep/Oct/Nov will get very ugly.
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http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2018/09/05/one-fragile-year-in-review-it-was-a-warning/?aaReferenceFrom=mcverryreport.com
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What is this guy actually trying to say?
Hundreds of charts that make no sense to me
summary in a paragraph please….?
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Fenster, ignore the charts and just read the copy.(I think it is the combination that is befuddling you).
He is basically saying the sudden movement in yield in the 4-week T-Bill in September of last year was not neatly explained, unless by liquidation of a large degree, and questions the CNY.
He suggests the “reflation” story was thus turned on its head from that same date.
I can give you a much better synopsis if you would like, if you can wait until later….just ask….
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Oh dear Page. When will you learn? Might get a nice pullback before Santa rally.
But ugly? Not a chance in hell my dear.
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ED
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