SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +23
For the first three days of this week the Asian markets have lost 1.8%, and the European markets have lost 2.0%. The US market was closed Monday, and gapped down at the open on both Tuesday and Wednesday. This would suggest the SPX was also down hard. But it is actually down less than 0.5% for the week.
From last week’s all-time high of SPX 2917 the market has dropped exactly 40 points to today’s low of 2877. More than expected at this stage of the rally. But quite normal for this uptrend. The non-quantified short term wave count we were tracking did not work out. SPX 2917 did end Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3. Wave 2 might have ended today at SPX 2877. Pullbacks of this degree, during this uptrend, have been as much as 50+ points. So maybe a bit more downside before the uptrend resumes. There are, however, positive divergences on both the SPX and DOW hourly charts. Short term support at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
ED
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bearish engulfing on AAPL today. not great.
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Speaking of ED =)
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Cr. to CBZ…
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For me validation is below 2840.
Thanks for the chart
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What happens if it goes above 2916.5 ? Does it still fit ending triangle pattern ?
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ES, if this is a wave 2 maybe ‘a’ is complete at 77.5 and ‘b’ is going to work its way up to 2897.5 with then a ‘c’ down?
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Thanks Tony. When Uber bears/nutcases like JK and Holly return it’s best to stay long. When they go quiet a top may be in.
I’m concerned Holly as gone quiet.
Good Luck all.
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Viv, thank you for not including me in the uber / bear nutcase group. Lol.
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I did consider you but you’re alright Newb 😀
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Tony, thank you for the midweek update, most appreciated.
Q: How are you counting five waves up from 2802 to 2917 for Minute-iii→Micro-1 wave?
SPX
BTC
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I’m not. My count look sloppy.
The rally quantified a reversal so it topped at 2917 regardless.
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Thanks Tony
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Lee and others; a bullish cross on weekly commodity index, seems like it has hold to itself too. Trustable for other than softs ?
I can remember wekly Bull crosses that didnt follow through, maybe its different this time ? 🤖
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index is ticker is RJI, observe that oil will change the picture according to how far it is weighted into the different indices.
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Cryptocripplecontagion……yikes !!!
Thanks for the great chart.
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Tony Thanks
I disagree with oew adjusted count of “SPX 2917 did end Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3.”
1). The non-quantified short term wave count had 7 waves from 2802 low, that cannot count as one wave of ‘Wave 1″.
2). from the look, it clearly had 3-waves up from 2802 low, counted as 1-2-3, or a-b-c. picture below.
3). Does oew quantified short term wave count had 5 waves up from 2802 to 2817? if not, the count as “Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3” is not qualified.
4). If this is “Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3”, that means it can go as low as 2803, and the count would be wrong if went below 2802.
conclude from above, I don’t see how the adjusted count of “Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3” be correct.
Déjà vu 🙂
some might say 2916.5 is the top of Int. wave V.
but the logic is wrong, because DOW never made new high, and was 450 points away, too much for a truncation. it’s DOW non-confirmation. $NYA is even worse.
I am seeing 2802 low should be easily taken out in a short term base. chart later.
cheers!
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You were wrong for around a year. So when I see you calling top I’m confident the bull will continue.
That’s why I love you.
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2945 to complete wave 3
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Thanks for the update and clarity Tony, I was contemplating the same counts. It does look like a 5 wave up off the lows, but I need to see some good follow through tomorrow or else I will be looking for a more complex correction. Daily Stochastics still looks disturbing to me.
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