Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +23

For the first three days of this week the Asian markets have lost 1.8%, and the European markets have lost 2.0%. The US market was closed Monday, and gapped down at the open on both Tuesday and Wednesday. This would suggest the SPX was also down hard. But it is actually down less than 0.5% for the week.

From last week’s all-time high of SPX 2917 the market has dropped exactly 40 points to today’s low of 2877. More than expected at this stage of the rally. But quite normal for this uptrend. The non-quantified short term wave count we were tracking did not work out. SPX 2917 did end Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3. Wave 2 might have ended today at SPX 2877. Pullbacks of this degree, during this uptrend, have been as much as 50+ points. So maybe a bit more downside before the uptrend resumes. There are, however, positive divergences on both the SPX and DOW hourly charts. Short term support at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend



About tony caldaro

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274 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    I receive this from JPM each day, but never really looked at what they have to say…if anyone likes this just say, and I shall include with my other offerings nightly.
    Two videos, the second for Tore, as I usually find his ear on a Friday evening…I don’t think he will have to question his surfing prowess….

    Thanks and love to Tony….and everyone xx


    • torehund says:

      Surfing is a dog and pony show at times, both in and outside of the water.
      Pond paddling offers no chicks, no intrigues, no Bentleys and no crowds, the best part of surfing minus the waves. Today its raining straight down, headed for the pond soon to enjoy the sight, and glide through the tranquil water, see you later 🙂


  2. Looking forward to Tony’s update tomorrow. Would assume the 2858 pivot should hold. So was today’s low at 2864 good enough and up we go or 1 more low on Monday. We shall see.

    Thanks all. Have a great weekend


  3. csonkabull39 says:

    Sold my long from 2803 at 2915, based on a trendline from 1974, and a 3BR on the 15 second Tick chart. Still short from 2915.


  4. Close on the low of the day, gap down Monday and finish up this down wave near 2840-2850


  5. fxaprendiz says:

    As many of you are aware, the stock markets have a fractal nature, “wheels within wheels” or in the case of EW, waves within waves. Since 2009 the SPX has been following the wave structure from 1932, only in the order of 2 degrees lower. Right now the SPX is in the equivalent of 2007, having printed a higher ATH already, with the previous January high akin to 2000 high. There may be a marginal new high coming but if the correlation holds it should be minimal, in the order of 10-20 points above SPX 2917. The waves don’t have to be an exact copy but they rhyme. They can also alternate: 2000-02 decline was orderly while the Jan-Feb 2018 decline was fast and furious, just like 2007-2009 was, that’s why I’m expecting the alternation to hold and for this decline towards SPX 2500 to be more like 2000-02, relatively orderly and slow and with lots of back and forth. Therefore planning on playing both sides on the way down but always heavier when short than when long.


  6. emuntrader says:

    Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur stats.

    8 out of the last 9 years the day before Rosh Hashanah has closed positive. We will see by EOD. Odds favor this pullback has more time, as mentioned earlier.

    Best of luck


  7. jobjas says:

    Posting a trade does not help anybody ( real-time or after the fact AND real trade or imaginary ) it is just saying ‘I am better than others
    Post a viewpoint , a method , a strategy , a chart that others can learn or adapt to their trading


  8. H D says:


  9. gary61b says:

    spx close at 2990….


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