Weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2477. After a gap down opening on Tuesday, and a drop to SPX 2447, the market rebounded. Wednesday’s gap up opening rallied the market to SPX 2470. Then quiet sideways trading ended the week at SPX 2461. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.20%. Economic reports for the week were sparse and mixed. On the downtick: factory orders, the Q3 GDP estimate, plus jobless claims and the trade deficit increased. On the uptick: ISM services, consumer credit and wholesale inventories. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by industrial production, retail sales and the CPI/PPI. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

In our continuing weekly coverage of the potential long-term headwinds for the general market, we update the following charts with appropriate comments.

The Transports appear to have completed 5/9 waves up from their 2016 low, potentially ending their bull market. A drop below 8744 would suggest this is more probability than possibility. Since the Trannies sometimes top a few months before the general market this index is worth watching. This week, however, the Trannies confirmed an uptrend after hitting 9010, well above that 8744. This suggest a subdividing Major wave 5,  like Major 3, may be underway. New highs, above 9764 would certainly increase that probability.

The NDX also displays a potential 5/9 waves up bull market. But it is still currently in an uptrend from 5580. This index is also worth watching, especially if it drops below that 5580 low in July.

The DOW does not have any of those potential completed bull market counts. It is still in its seventh wave up from its 2016 low. When the next downtrend is confirmed we can label an Int. iii at the recent high. But still the DOW would have to again make all time highs to end its bull market. This index suggests the bull has, at least, months still ahead of it.

MEDIUM TERM: inflection point continues

On the SPX daily chart we display the most conservative of count. Minor waves 3 and 4 ending in March-April. Intermediate iii ending in June at SPX 2454. Then an irregular Intermediate iv correction with wave A at SPX 2406/2408, wave B at SPX 2491, and wave C still underway. This irregular pattern should alternate with Intermediate ii, which was an irregular zigzag. This suggests a flat or a, rare these days, triangle. We’ll go with the flat.

An irregular flat suggests the downside for wave C should end around SPX 2400. This is a level the market first encountered as resistance (Mar/May), then support (June/Aug). Once the correction bottoms, then Intermediate wave v should take the market to new highs. Medium term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As an alternate to the above conservative count we display on the hourly chart a more bullish count. This is the reason for the inflection point. This more bullish count still maintains the Minor waves 3 and 4 in Mar/Apr. But the SPX 2454 high only ends Minute wave i of Minor 5, and not all of Int. iii as above. The correction to SPX 2406/2408 in July ends Minute ii, and Minute iii is currently underway. This count seems to be a reach at times, but nothing has occurred yet to invalidate it. We are, however, seeing a potential repetitive pattern emerging.

Reviewing the Minor 4 correction you will observe a large a-b-c down, a smaller a-b-c up, then a gradual grind down into the final Minor 4 low in April. The recent activity from the SPX 2491 high in July looks quite similar. A large a-b-c down, then a smaller a-b-c up, followed by sort of a grinding down decline from SPX 2480. Clearly the market can fit either of these scenarios. With SPX 2400 the expected maximum downside and upside unlimited, the risk/reward continues to look favorable. Short term support is at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 1.0%.

European markets were mostly lower as well for a net loss of 0.3%.

The DJ World index was unchanged on the week, and the NYSE lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.7% on the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend but gained 0.4%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 1.6%.

The USD has been in a downtrend for many months and lost 1.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: the PPI and Budget deficit. Thursday: jobless claims and the CPI. Friday: retail sales, industrial production, the NY FED, business inventories, consumer sentiment and its options expiration Friday.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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144 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    IMHO…SDS is now a a critical price low $47.58…Yes, I own it….

  2. JK1987 says:

    bellwether, top 5 of US stock turned red, at low of day. it’s coming…
    https://gyazo.com/a16eadd99c8c616eea8b635830bd6b29

  3. from 2417 are we still counting 5 waves up
    2455-2428-2480-2447-? would think wave 3 was 52 points means wave 5 shouldn’t and end at most 2498. Which could be micro 3, could be an ending diagonal. So in my opinion worst case is up another 11 points then a pull back of of 31 points. .38 of the 81 point move up . that is 2467. then either micro 5 up to 2540 ish to finish the extension and then we get a 5 percent correction or we continue lower from the 2467 level.

    My 2 cents. Never got a chance to short today, just straight up with 2 point maybe 3 point pull back.
    so looking to short the close
    Posted wrong date. I apoligize

  4. llerias7 says:

    Shall we see VIX under 10?? Give little room for another upswing!

  5. HP999 says:

    I have been cautious/bearish for quite some time based on what seemed to be some logical analysis of both the geopolitical and economic situation but obviously the market has proven me wrong time and time again.
    No need to list all the reasons that should make people cautious, they are all around us.
    What is more interesting is to wonder why markets are ignoring them.
    The first justification one hears from the bulls is that there is lots of liquidity and no place to invest it except in the markets. It makes sense to a certain extent.
    The other reason, linked to the first one, is that no matter what happens the CB’s will always step in and keep adding liquidity if and when needed.
    These two axioms made me rethink the concept of risk that used to be the ultimate arbitrator of market behavior before CB’s actually kidnapped financial markets since 2009. It made me wonder what if the bulls were right? What if risk had been not truly eliminated, that would be a stupid statement to make, but reduced to a point where it should barely be taken into consideration, if at all?
    Markets have climbed relentlessly no matter what was thrown at them. All the potentially bearish events of late have resolved in the market barely retreating from ATH and the next few days will probably print new ATH in the major indices in the US and in the DAX.
    For example, markets do not think NK is a threat and in fact they are probably right to think that way. Kim Jong Un can do whatever he pleases and no Western power will do anything against him. It is unthinkable that the US, let alone any of its allies, kill tens of thousands or more North Koreans in any preventive strike. Hence the reason why any missiles test is met with a 10 to 15 pts drop in Globex to be retraced soon after during the main session or a couple of days later. On the other hand, it suffices that an anticipated missile test doesn’t materialize like this past weekend for the market to jump up 1% as it is the case today.
    It is the same story for any event that should normally be construed as “bearish”. The market barely budges in anticipation to the Irma’s damage but when the storm is gone and the damage is done, the market moves up. It is rather evident that Florida is in worse shape today that it was last Thursday but nonetheless the market is up 1%. It would have been understandable that using its discounting mechanism the markets had gone down 2 or 3% in anticipation of the storm’s damages to recoup part of this loss had the damages been less that was anticipated but it’s not what happened. The markets did not go down in anticipation but did go up after, defying all logic. Except of course if one thinks that any devastation is indeed positive for the economy and for corporate profits due to the massive reconstruction effort that would ensue in the future. This is probably what’s happening today !
    Same reasoning applies to the following issues in no particular order of importance: CB’s bloated balance sheet and the effect of tapering, auto loans, decreasing retail sales, Italian banks, world growth, debt ceiling, political uncertainty, Middle East, Isis, terrorism, etc …
    Majority of market participants is absorbing/discarding all of the above as it believes everything has a solution and thus nothing can touch the ever rising market or even slow it down. Problem for us bears is that the majority may be right and we may be wrong !

    • vivelaamo says:

      Good post. If you can’t beat them…..

    • JK1987 says:

      the most popular spx only up 3.6% for the last 6 months since Mar 1, it’s sideways , stalled and waiting for the time to crash. it will not break out. if no new high, it will be the perfect scenario.
      my favorite trade rut is at the exact same level of Mar 1, and down 2.5% from July high, it’s losing.

    • phil1247 says:

      Hi HP
      by the length of your post …. it seems you are overthinking it

      in a bull market .
      .participants are confident and optimistic, looking for any reason to buy
      all news is perceived as good news
      believe me… when confidence reverses
      neither the fed nor anyone else will stop the tidal wave of selling …
      all news will be perceived as bad news

      • HP999 says:

        What is confidence if not the expression of how one perceives risk ? If overall risk has been greatly reduced, then as a consequence confidence should mostly remain high.

        • The Fed+JPM Chase,Wells,Merrill,are a stock market boosting team.If anyone thinks Japan and the ECB are the only entities buying stock,you have to be naive.This was instituted in 2009.Now instead of being antagonists,the government, banks,brokers and financial institutions are PROtagonists.Working together to guarantee return that pension funds and the economy desperately needs.Wages aren’t rising–so this is the solution.Nothing to do with confidence,but there IS a con job going on.The thought that markets do not have a gentle government hand underneath it to guide it higher will never be admitted to–unless a black swan event would occur.THEN,the Fed would publicly announce buying.Until then,its slowly higher.

          • phil1247 says:

            once the trend turns down
            buying by the fed
            that boosts the market temporarily will be perceived as a gift
            to be able to short at better levels

          • mcgcapital says:

            If they’ve constantly been buying since 2009 then how did 2011 and 2015/16 happen? The issue is sentiment.. people have stopped believing it can go down which shows with the short interest at decade lows. Plus low bond yields are what’s killing pension funds.. a rise in yields and they would actually be better off even if stocks fell

            • phil1247 says:

              mcg

              look at all the buying by BOJ
              japanese market still down 50 % since 1989

            • Who said they have been buying constantly?It’s been an evolving process.CBs getting more and more involved.Japan hasn’t been buying since 1989–5 to 7 years maybe?Their percentage of gov’t owned stock is estimated between 25 and 50% of all Nikkei shares outstanding.

    • micky says:

      The market already made its intentions clear in the first half of last year, it will keep going until those intentions have run its course to targets that have been mentioned.

  6. phil1247 says:

    ES
    little in the way of 2495 target
    stops raised
    see ya there !
    hasta

  7. JK1987 says:

    SPX A-D new all time high. that’s the fact, no phantom.
    https://gyazo.com/7d1a081223d6544570921edbd8e6690b

  8. amittsite says:

    The correction was over at 2417.odd..Tony C’ s hourly count at play..

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Worth going short now the gap is filled. We all know that weekly gap below will get filled sooner rather than later.

  10. If this is the B-wave of a flat, then it has to reach a 90% retrace level. That level, between 2,417 and 2,491, is 2,384. If we see that level, and no more, then this correction could end up being just a flat, with an anticipated C-wave level of 2,417.

  11. Santelli interviewed someone last Friday am who gave an explanation why he thought,through Fed machinations of various financial instruments(that are keeping bond yields low)is actually a new form of QE.Not announced–but happening just the same.If true (and the market big boys know what’s happening and are executing the Feds plan every day ),you won’t see a selloff–except for KJU kneejerk drops.Maybe for a while,Monday and Friday will be the the most interesting days of the week.S&P up 20,gold down as surmised.Let’s see how much they pound gold down…1330 important support..Good luck all.

    • GDX still embedded at 84,but another percent drop to a 3% loss today would pound a nail into its coffin.Then down another 2% would follow quickly.No reason to think it wont happen.Later all.

  12. mjtplayer says:

    VIX down in the mid 10’s, no fear and all is well – everyone is jumping into the pool

    • H D says:

      VIX was up 8% last Friday while everyone was buying puts, They got crushed today. Total OPEX shenanigans.

      • floyd drummer says:

        hd,

        always enjoy your comments. …. keep them coming!

      • CampFreddie says:

        Hd- agree, shameless manipulation.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Can someone explain how and why it’s manipulated for opex.. I’m not disputing the fact that it is, as every month we seem to have a 20 handle rally on one of the days mon-thurs before opex. I’m pretty sure that’s statistically significant vs the number of big up days in the other 3 weeks of the month (not looked at the numbers). More interested in the mechanics behind why they buy

          • H D says:

            JMHO, it can’t be manipulated as it’s nothing more than a math formula. Futures do not affect the VIX calculation. What I was speculating is people were buying puts. Higher VIX= more expensive options, worth much less now compared to Friday.
            The second part of your comment is spot on. You found the OPEX pattern. Very consistent all year. Good eyes! Last year 9/12 the SPX rallied 43 points.

            • mcgcapital says:

              Thanks.. so you’re saying buy stocks to drop the vix? I was thinking it could be linked to pushing puts out of the money ahead of expiry to minimise payouts

              • H D says:

                TBH, if you are not looking for a direct play on volatility, or pricing options, I would just ignore the VIX. I studied it for 2 years before I finally found a way to quantify anything related.

    • phil1247 says:

      mjt

      ES 2477.5 is most aggressive ext long support
      upside rocket blast can continue while above there

      • mjtplayer says:

        OPEX Friday and Fed meeting next Wed, anything is possible…

        If the Fed announces it will begin balance sheet reduction next week it will be interesting to see the markets reaction

  13. fotis2 says:

    CL 38 next stop.

  14. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE leading lower.. gave a nice short entry earlier and struggling to hold 7400. Spx at resistance so looking for a gap close on that

  15. I’m going to short the open, with a stop at 2481. Will see, don’t beleive this rally, turn date 9-12 so will inning to risk 5-6 points for 60 or 70 to the downside.
    Good luck all

  16. vivelaamo says:

    Well my remaining RUT short from last week got stopped out at BE. Very hard to keep positions open in this choppy market. Time to sit and wait again.

    Eur/gbp looking good though.

  17. captbara says:

    Gap fill time. Overnight or morning or Tues?

  18. fionamargaret says:

    From my mailbox…..
    http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/
    http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/
    Thanks Colin Twiggs



    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony, and everyone. xx

  19. fenster6 says:

    Torehund – you are wrong the VIX is not up, you are looking at the wrong place for VIX futures.

    look here and even this is NOT accurate when the contract is rolling over.

    https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

  20. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. An uptrend is an uptrend…but this one just feels weak.
    http://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2017-09-10.html

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Hope Newbie closed his position on Friday.

  22. phil1247 says:

    ES

    no change from last thursday premarket chart

    target …………………… 2495
    then ……………………….2529

  23. torehund says:

    Vix up, alongside the SP futures, smells of P-III 🙂

  24. Implied open on sp plus 12. Looks like 2500 this week.

  25. JK1987 says:

    Coming recession(s) and stock bear market

    QE started 106 moons ago was Transitory, then continued and continued, more and more.
    that’s the biggest and maybe the only cause for 9 years stock bull market. that’s how a “Transitory” become a “Permanent”.

    we all know QE is starting to unwind this month of September and rates already raised, so we are taking away the stimulus parts.
    taking the stimulus away, stock market has nothing but big empty below it.

    mother nature also is taking away a couple percentage away from the growth, what’s left is moving toward the balanced zero.

    Like JK said: RUT and NDX have reached permanent Top this summer 2017.
    both of them have confirmed terminal pattern. the history with the same pattern for both market are dreadful.

    another big factor will force the recession is from this projection:
    “JK1987 says:
    September 10, 2017 at 12:31 am
    projection US market crash on Oct 2, 2017”

    All “Transitory” will become a “Permanent”.

    JK Galbraith have good researches on books.

    Like JK Said, signed

  26. cj32 says:

    Cr.CBZ…..

  27. torehund says:

    Thanks for update Tony.
    Looking at Transports Weekly chart; macd from Jan 2017 until now appears to have made a large X-formation. Its possible that the X is finished and the histogram is putting on lower negative bars and a hock up may start to form.
    Good Weekend to all of you in this time of misery an tumults.

  28. phil1247 says:

    US will be forced into recession ?

    highly unlikely

    but almost guaranteed it will not be caused a hurricane

    http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2017/9/5/hurricane-economics

  29. phil1247 says:

    SILVER … SLV

    mjt…….

    the short entry traded at 17.08
    doesnt mean counter rally cant continue
    sold half SLV friday
    lets see if SLV can break the short at 17.70
    until that happens 13.18 target is valid
    also extension short is still valid with target of 9.99 …… no typo

    if i were to short i would rather short silver
    as mentioned numerous times……
    gold has probably seen its bear market lows
    silver and miners may not have yet….because

    gold broke the short from mid 2016 highs in april 2017
    gold supported a long from lows after the break of short and completed target
    gold is now in extension longs

    silver has still not broken above the corresponding short at ……………………17.70
    GDX still has not broken the short at ……………………………………………………. 26.81

    • phil1247 says:

      mjt…..

      re EURO….

      1.2165 is pretty much a gimme unless 1.1923 fails
      want to add more FXE longs on dips next week .. ie….
      more pain ahead for dollar bulls

      good news .. a dollar low is due next summer….
      with maybe .38 to .50 retrace
      before all out dollar collapse

    • captbara says:

      I don’t see any reason why the gold silver divergence would ever get that large. If anything it looks like silver will outperform over the next few months.

      • phil1247 says:

        it may capt…

        but i dont invest money based on guessing
        silver has to prove it can break the short
        or the divergence is going to get larger and larger

  30. bouraq says:

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  31. bouraq says:

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  32. Thank you Tony and everyone on this venue for sharing their analyses and comments. My thoughts and plans: http://www.balancetrading.org/

  33. I’ve been looking west all evening–and as of now–no sightings of any NK missile.From what I’ve read,no one else has either.Maybe Kim Jong Un bought some calls on friday.We’ll see.

    • JK1987 says:

      NK probably have good skills on the stock market and gold.
      they did the H-bomb 7 days ago at the market most critical inflection. the damage has done. after that, the market is going on its down path, and could not recover to the pre-H-bomb point.

      at that time, they bought calls on gold, and ride the gold surge for one week.

      then they took profits on the calls of gold last Friday, and switch to puts on gold.
      they knew traders were expecting NK to launch missile, and traders loaded up calls on gold.
      no, they won’t launch the missile. so the gold market will tank on next Monday, and NK profit from the puts on gold.

      above are phantom trades of NK.

      new iPhone launch – buy the rumor, sell the news, always did in the past for AAPL to drop 10%.

      true story is:
      i reiterate four following mentioned market has Topped.
      JK1987 says:
      September 8, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    • “Instead of firing missiles,NK throws a party”.Futes will be up 20 S&P handles.

      • if they will be up 20 handles u can buy the dow futures flat on ig now

      • JK1987 says:

        forget about NK, it’s fake news.

        the real news is mother nature already actually dropped a H(arvey)-Bomb on US, costing 1% GDP.
        and now pounding US with an I(rma)-Bomb.
        and we are on the hurricane season (that’s the true seasonality that nobody can deny), and nobody can use twitter to threat to stop the mother nature.

        “Hurricane Harvey probably shaved 1% from third-quarter growth, Goldman Sachs says”

        is 1% shave with H(arvey)-Bomb bullish?
        we don’t know the impact of I(rma)-Bomb yet. maybe 0.5~1%
        any other hurricanes developing?
        God forbid, California (silicon valley, techs) is due for a major earthquake (CA is the biggest economy state in US)

        and we have other factors besides the mother nature.

        stock market is a factor of the economic growth, will be reflected upon.
        that’s what like-JK-said: US will be forced into recession

        • “Transitory.”Don’t you read Fed propaganda?Question is…what ISN’T fake?Plus,since when does the economy,profits or anything but QE (which some suggest we’re in again)matter?

        • mcgcapital says:

          How is something transitory going to force a recession? With these weather related things, economic activity gets delayed and once it passes, which it will, there’s pent up demand and growth is higher than it otherwise would have been in subsequent quarters. The economy is vulnerable given the huge amount of debt in the system, but it will be something else that causes a recession

  34. Thanks Tony. Even without recent reports the Chinese are buying less from NOKO to sink them into an ever deeper credit squeeze, the advance decline for the SPX has been rising along with positive readings from the Summation index and the McClellan oscillator suggesting the market is likely to edge higher. If reports of the Chinese are correct, this should be constructive for the market until it’s not. It’s not a game changer, and could be a PR stunt, but may buy some time. But possibly diluting this, however small the step may be, Putin seems bent upon inserting himself into another global crisis with who knows what consequence. Leaving aside geopolitiics, I think the market wants to move higher but possibly no higher than 2476 ish to fill the gap.

  35. vivelaamo says:

    Hope all those affected on here are safe. 🙏🏼

  36. Thanks Tony. Enjoy your weekend.

  37. stormchaser80llc says:

    My complete blog post is open to the public each weekend. If you like the post, you can sign up for a FREE subscription to view this analysis daily at the bottom my blog post! To concentrate my efforts on development, posting to this blog will only be done twice weekly, each Wednesday and for the Weekend.

    After 85 trading days, the SPX 20 dma has slipped below its 50 dma for the 4th day in a row.

    My swing trading signals have been BULLISH since 8/25 and 8/29 respectively. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 8th day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1’s peak vs. SPX. It was an odd previous bottom as the Model did not positively diverge as it usually does in advance. My statistically driven Volatility Model continues to decrease in volatility significantly, with recent trading below 1% of volatility since 1990.

    8/29’s SPX Hindenburg Omen ended up being a bottom reversal variety. Many HO in June and July leading up to the All Time High, then 5 more during the decline in mid August. None since then.

    SPX has pulled back through several key support levels and now is wavering around the 2464 support/resistance line. With only 2 minor positive divergences on the SPX hourly chart at the lows on 9/5, a lower low is likely before sustained bullish activity, but is not required.

    VIX generated its hourly MACD BUY signal Friday, though a negative divergence showed up on the ADX +DI. Drilling down to the 15-min chart, negative divergences formed at today’s highs. Higher VIX is likely in the short term.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators, many of them in positive territory, yet are well off peaks from earlier in the year. SPX A-D line in an exception, making a new All Time High on 9/8, obviously above its 20 dma which is now ascending. SPX McClellan made its 7th positive reading in a row.

    The Yield Curve is flattening which continues to support the notion of a weak economy. This as TLT:TIP shows deflation fears have been climbing since Spring.

    Oil dumped Friday, and likely wont succeed a challenge of both its 200 dma and upper Bollinger Band for any significant time. Oil performed terribly during the tropical system in the Gulf which shuttered rigs (If Harvey couldn’t boost prices an east coast Irma shouldn’t help much either), and all Spring/Summer, last peaking at the beginning of the year. In an interesting development today, HYG:IEF made a lower low Friday, which only served to strengthen significant positive divergences in doing so. This suggests that Risk-On should return soon.

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  38. kvilia says:

    Hi Tony – thank you for the report.
    “With SPX 2400 the expected maximum downside and upside unlimited”. They said the same about real estate in 2005.

  39. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  40. Thanks Tony. I have a few thoughts on SPX and hope to pull together my thinking and offer something over the weekend, but I am short WTI (CL) once again and continue to be believe lower prices are in store owing to a supply glut largely resulting from US production increases.

    In larger time frames, WTI has been trading sideways in 14 pt range since the summer of 2016 and I am uncertain of how low CL will go but I view $42 as a distinct possibility, as that is approaching the lower end of the price band. https://invst.ly/52s1i

    Short term, oil is likely to come under continuing pressure as US, Libya and Nigeria production continues to expand while refining capacity is down approximately 20% post Harvey. And Irma may pose challenges for the East Coast energy infrastructure.

    We really won’t understand the longer term dynamics and equilibrium until refining capacity is restored; OPEC is successful in maintaining production cuts; and US rig count begin to stabilize. But I think it will trend down with the normal noise accompanying news of rigs and inventory changes.

    “Goldman said it was lowering its forecast for the US market to $47.50 a barrel from $55 a barrel previously as the increase in shale drilling and Libyan and Nigerian output increased the risk of inventories not normalizing before Opec’s output cut ends in March.” (OPEC and its associated non-OPEC producers’ decision in May to extend their production cuts for an additional nine months through to end-March 2018 has not been met with overwhelming enthusiasm by the oil market.)

    “Oil prices have dropped by more than 20 per cent so far this year, and Goldman said it expects WTI to remain around $45 a barrel until evidence is seen of a fall in the number of US horizontal oil rigs, sustained stock draws or additional Opec cuts.”

    Speculators remain long but I attach little significance to this as they have retained their long positions while casually watching WTI fall from $110 to just below $30. I was going to say they are still long and wrong……..but that would border on cheesy.

  41. JK1987 says:

    Tony thanks
    “The Transports appear to have completed 5/9 waves up from their 2016 low, potentially ending their bull market. A drop below 8744 would suggest this is more probability than possibility. Since the Trannies sometimes top a few months before the general market this index is worth watching. ”

    may i ask a few questions?
    since we are talking about Tran potentially ending their bull market with P V, and Trannies “sometimes” top a few months before the general market.
    two major top during last 20 years (for market at least correct 40%).
    1. year 2000, Tran did top a few months before the general market.
    2. but during 2007-2008, Tran topped 7 months later than the general market..
    3. do we have other major market top samples? or it’s 50% probability of Tran top before the general market?
    https://gyazo.com/0604b508411660b7eafd5ecc5490f333

    HD, i saw the same, but would adjust your ndx lines and labels. imho, ndx already Topped on Sep 1.

    • JK1987 says:

      edit:
      question
      4. if Tran does break down below 8744, and indu breaks down below April low or 2017 low, and no new high within the next 6 months or one year, how would we adjust the count for indu?
      thanks

    • tony caldaro says:

      1. Since 1929 the TRAN has led or coincided with a market top 77% of the time.
      In the past 35-years the TRAN has led or coincided with a top 90% of the time.
      2. Jack, you took the course and still don’t see a difference between the 2007 and 2008 highs? Lesson 10.
      4. not going to comment on such a low probability

  42. hooloo1957 says:

    Hi, looks like five waves completed from apples 2016 low. Does anyone know how this stock trades going into these iPhone releases? What’s the pattern? Thanks

  43. scottycj1 says:

    I’m in Ft Myers…..about to hunker down for a few days…..
    Think a CIT Friday was a low…UP from here.

    Vaya Con Dios

    • phil1247 says:

      stay safe scotty.. and God bless….

      . my sister in law didnt leave naples
      i went thru 3 hurricane eye walls
      when i lived in hobe sound near jupiter
      stars out with clear skies and no wind during eye…..
      then …… back side hits

      but they were just category 2 and 3

      • scottycj1 says:

        Thanks Phil……Hoping Fiona…..errr… I mean Irma just keeps pushing to the west

      • Lee X says:

        Hey Phil

        If the storm surge is what they say it’s going to be this is going to be very bad
        I’ve got a place in Naples , this is my first major hurricane and I’m going to ride it out in Chicago.
        Be safe guys !

        • phil1247 says:

          Lee

          go to nat hurricane center site

          they have a chart with storm surge levels just updated at 11 am

          you can see where your house is
          and storm surge probability in your neighborhood

          so far my sis in laws house has just 1 foot surge probability
          i dont know if you have ever been thru a category 3 eye wall …
          but i will give you
          a one word description………………. terrifying
          the house would expand and contract as if it wanted to explode
          the wind sounded like a train was headed towards my house
          you do not want to experience it if you dont have to…
          i cannot even imagine what a 4 or 5 would be like

          • Lee X says:

            Thx Phil
            I’ve never experienced one let alone one of this magnitude
            Looking like 6 ft +surge for my place at the moment.

    • pooch77 says:

      Crap my timeshare is in Fie t Meyers

    • mjtplayer says:

      Good luck Scotty, stay safe

      On a separate note, I starting to look at going short GDX; think gold/silver/PM’s are topping here or soon. No position yet, just keeping a close eye on it…

      • phil1247 says:

        careful mjt

        until those extension longs break on gold

        you could be looking at another upside explosion
        like the EURO.
        . this was how the euro rocket blast began..
        . with extension longs that would not quit

  44. Mr C:Being a first grader in OEW,I might as well be the one to ask this.You mention:
    “But still the DOW would have to again make all time highs TO END ITS BULL MARKET. This index suggests the bull has, at least, months still ahead of it.”
    But that new high is only 500 points away.How does “making a new high” end the bull market…yet at the end of your update,”the upside is unlimited.”
    Thanks.

  45. H D says:

    Thanks Tony, Just an option on the NDX chart. Not an index I follow but this pattern would be in the correct spot. Wouldn’t it? Sept low preferred.

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