Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open sideways day, DOW +13

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened five-points below yesterday’s SPX 2265 close. After a quick dip to SPX 2459, the market rallied to 2467 by 11am. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported higher. After that the market remained in the opening range for the rest of the day, much like yesterday. At 3pm consumer credit was reported higher. Then the market ended the day at SPX 2461.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.70%. Bonds ended flat, Crude slid $1.50, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2456 and 2444 pivots, with resistance at the 2479 and 2525 pivots. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was reported at 3.0% v 3.2%.

The market opened lower today, turned positive by late-morning, then spent the rest of the day bouncing between negative and unchanged on the day. Not much going on for the past two days, and no change to the short-term count posted Wednesday. After gap openings on Tuesday/Wednesday the market has gone quiet again. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: inflection point continues

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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48 Responses to Friday update

  1. Thanks Tony
    1,68% DB nearly reached,flag target reached,posted triangle with 2 possible targets(depending on the height),one of them reached,LT target ~22k by fibo,i think it’s time to have caution

  2. fotis2 says:

    Hope any posters living on the east coast stay safe.

  3. captbara says:

    EEM just put in 5 waves up from Aug 11. That’s a wrap folks.

  4. bfquant says:

    That the yen has broken out by closing above the April highs, and that gold has a breakout in terms of yen, is perhaps the most constructive case for being bullish gold. Transitive property.

    • fionamargaret says:

    • fionamargaret says:

      I was delighted to receive the Bach English Suites played by Perahia without ads, and also some interpretations by Sokolov for my mentioning his clarity of sound. I shall post them at intervals, and anything else you would like played.

      The Don William’s songs were in his memory. By all accounts a good man, and certainly a fine singer. I find a goodness, a trueness in country music….and hope you enjoyed him too….x

  5. locanbbs says:

    Think everyone’s gone to bed. Me too.

    • fionamargaret says:

      No, your discussion was really interesting.
      I seem to think Tony did a pretty in-depth analysis of the depression etc….maybe we need a reminder…x

  6. Covered my shirt from Wednesday. Market won’t go down. So watch it tank on Monday. Will be looking to reshoot around 2476, maybe a triangle.
    Look forward to Tony’s weekend update.
    Have a nice weekend all.

  7. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: No offense intended, Tony, but I beg to differ.

    The Spx is in a sideways movement, but looking “under the surface” at other indices etc. a lot was changed today and in the past few days.

    1) The first thing that occurred to me is that US bonds suddenly went into an uptrend, thus REDUCING rates and supporting QE, just on Sept. 1, the beginning of the announced meltdown of QE. Since it appears that the CB’s are controlling most all the markets nowadays, is this just another example of Orwellian “double-speak” (saying the opposite of what you mean)? Or is that supposed to be a comforting substitute for other measures which are to be taken away?
    tb futures hourly –
    2) The Spx may be in a sideways movement, but Gold and Euro, the strongest movers of recent days (weeks) and which were breaking out strongly overnight, suddenly began to struggle beginning at 8 a.m. EST (work begin in NYC/Washington D.C.?) this morning, obviously under massive CB intervention. By the end of the day the bulls in these markets seemed totally demoralized. Possibly this remained unnoticed during market hours?
    gold futures hourly –
    3) One hour later also the Ndx, another recent mover, though it was already in a short term downtrend, more or less suddenly broke down, for what reason I can only guess–coming major market cycle low end of next week?
    ndx futures hourly –
    4) The Rut, on the other hand, stuck its kecky head over the 34 sma and began a (short term?) uptrend beginning around 5 a.m. – Also probably unnoticed during regular market hours.
    rut futures hourly –

    • mjtplayer says:

      Makes you wonder what markets would be like and where they would be without constant CB manipulation, QE, etc. Did you know that the largest CB’s in the world, including the Fed, have trading desks of their own?

      Hedge funds, traders, bankers, etc routinely get arrested, fined, jailed, etc for manipulating markets or insider trading. For the government, politicians and CB’s it’s just business as usual – the laws don’t apply to them, only us the little people.

      • locanbbs says:

        Yes, it’s frustrating. But like my father used to say, “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” – Next time I’ll just have to recognize the intervention earlier and get out sooner or even change sides in mid-stream! I saw the intervention, but the upwards counter-action was so strong that I thought, “That must be the Chinese CB’s, maybe they’re stronger.” – But, at least this time, the “West” won! I guess the “West” (still) has a bigger drawing account. Anyway, the “East” put up a good battle–it was really intensive (I was watching the tick charts most of the time)!

    • locanbbs says:

      Probably the CB’s turned their attention from the Ndx (which had been leading the markets higher or at least holding them up, of course under the “supervision” of the CB’s) towards Gold/Euro, which seemed a greater problem at the moment. So we can gradually perhaps start writing a book on the “Psychology of CB Interventions”, which promises to be a best-seller!

      • locanbbs says:

        At least what we seem to be able to learn from this is that the Fed is not “omnipotent” and that the Ndx can go down again–at least if the Fed is preoccupied with another “problem”! So: first job every morning is to find out what the Fed is preoccupied with, then do as they do, no questions asked! And: obviously they find it easier to manipulate the futures market than the regular one.

        • JK1987 says:

          “first job every morning is to find out what the Fed is preoccupied with”

          i am “guessing” next week target: spx 2405, ndx 5705, preferably on Wed 0913
          that takes a lot of force.
          let’s see what happen.

          • locanbbs says:

            “How?” is a good question. Perhaps by keeping the relevant windows next to each other and seeing where the action is. It seems more like a conundrum: supporting the dollar and stocks at the same time. Instead of letting the market take care of things, like overactive housewives they want just to keep up appearances on all sides just to outdo the neighbors.

            • locanbbs says:

              They used to speak of “Parkinson’s law” of burocracy, saying that if you create an instrument of some kind, say an agency like the PPT, then it will find a “use” for itself, even if it’s counterproductive. That’s also why politicians are so counterproductive these days. They have to “do something” to show to their partisans that they are not just wasting their time! You can’t expect much intelligence from “monkies” (today they call them “bots”), can you?

    • JK1987 says:

      locanbbs, i see,
      1. rut permanent top already done on 07/25 with textbook top formation, chart posted, Sep 5th was the last escape terminal point, i posted the chart. i shorted rut big when the top line hit on 07/25. holding short until wave 1 target 840. rut should thrust down big starting next Monday.

      2. ndx permanent top done on Sep 1st, i shorted big on ndx shortly after market open on Sep 1 when the top line hit.
      JK1987 says:
      September 1, 2017 at 3:03 pm
      the best game in town is tech, which i shorted big this morning.

      3. oil last escape terminal done on Sep 6th, i posted the chart. today’s impulsive down is the confirmation. not trading it.

      4. gold / miners / commodities very possibly topped today for years to come, i posted price, time charts. topping yesterday/today is fully expected per charts. not trading them. gold bulls probably hoping for nk to fire missile this weekend. not going to happen. they fire when you are not expecting.

      deflationary cycle coming.

      • mjtplayer says:

        JK – next week is a large cycle turn for gold; the top is likely next week.

        • JK1987 says:

          mjplayer, i see today is the Major major turn, time is up.
          i study the cycle and price on my own original work, not following anybody.
          we will see. either way, i am not trading it, objected view, no conflict of interest.

      • locanbbs says:

        JK, maybe you’re right. Wait and see. The biggest objection I have at the moment is that gold is not primarily a commodity, more a currency and also the “last refuge”, meaning that when crisis comes, even a depression, normally gold should profit, at least at the beginning, because no one knows what will crash next, the least probable is then gold. The Euro is probably profiting along with gold because most trust the Bundesbank and Andrea Merkel more than they do Trump and Yellen (or her successor).
        Or how do you see it?

        • JK1987 says:

          locanbbs, “even a depression, normally gold should profit, at least at the beginning”
          i see gold/miner should profit at the end, not the beginning.
          since you mentioned “depression”. please check out and verify and let me know when did gold/miner start to profit during
          1. great recession.
          2. great depression.

          from here, i am seeing gold could down 50% in years, i saw a major “thing”

          • locanbbs says:

            In fact I already checked that out once, a great while ago, and it was so that gold profited at the beginning from a crash/recession, but soon succomed to the same deflationary forces as the other assets. That was, however, only one instance. For a long-range study of the question I lack now time and resources! Perhaps someone else can comment on this question?

            • JK1987 says:

              i already did with limited resources.
              just like to see someone else comment for the confirmation.

            • locanbbs says:

              Another study just occurred to me saying that DURING an economic downturn (stagflation) nothing profits much, only precious metals do a little better because of the many conflicts and wars that arise then. Good time to practice meditation!

          • locanbbs says:

            Anyway, Fiona’s favourite (what’s his name) at Raymond James is still quite optimistic and is probably more qualified than either of us!

      • CampFreddie says:

        JK- OK, that’s your opinion, but disagree strongly.

      • JK1987 says:

        projection US market crash on Oct 2, 2017

  8. JK1987 says:

    i think that’s the last life line and must hold for rut.
    saw your posted market short term down cycle ended today, and up & away next Monday going forward?

    • pooch77 says:

      JK not so sure

    • locanbbs says:

      Nope, don’t think so. The next–this one major–bottom is already on coming Friday, so at least that has to be mastered first! So there may be a short bounce in already depressed markets (Rut), but judging from today’s breakdown in Ndx, I would expect more of the like next week, at best a bottoming formation.

  9. pooch77 says:

    How does rut keep going into the close and beyond,it that really short covering???

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