Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Monday, DOW +260

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0% as well. US index futures were much higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2477 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2461 on Friday. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2489 then drifted for the rest of the day, closing at 2488.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.15%.  Bonds lost 20 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold dropped $19, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. No economic reports until Wednesday.

The market gapped up at the open to start the week and the SPX nearly hit its ATH at 2491. Big 28-point rally from Friday close to today’s high. We checked the last two gap up openings, and both produced the high of the week on the gap up day then did nothing for the rest of the week. With industrial production and options expiration on Friday maybe this time will be different. The short term count from the recent SPX 2417 low is starting to look impulsive again: (1) 2455, (2) 2428, (3) 2480-2447-2489 so far. Still looking for new highs in the SPX to seal the breakout. Short term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: inflection trying to breakout

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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105 Responses to Monday update

  1. Normand Gauthier says:

    please M.Caldaro send me your dayly report every day

    Normand Gauthier

    ________________________________

  2. captbara says:

    AAPL going haywire. We got 5 waves up already or what?

  3. phil1247 says:

    ding !

    es 2494 is within 4 ticks of target
    calling it hit !
    anyone holding on for 2495 would be advised to bail if 2490 gives way

    good luck…. see ya!

  4. I assume that finished up 5 waves. 2417-2496 call it 79 points. A.38 retrace is 30 points a 50 percent retrace is 40. So we should drop to 2456-2466. From there we could rally max 78 points to 2534-2544 to end int 3. Or we just started minor 4.So, a drop under 2456 should be the 1st clue and drop thru 2447 should confirm. that’s all I got

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..averages will close lower today…

      • vivelaamo says:

        Arent your numbers normally more longer term Fiona? I was stopped out RUT short. Only position I have is Euro/GBP short. You have any numbers on that?

        • fionamargaret says:

          Vive, I am just playing the sequences of today to suggest lower finish for averages.
          Longer term S&P is 2610….but lower first…
          McG is really good at FX…If you want me to look, you will have to wait until later…sorry.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Lol.. since March every time we’ve made a new high there’s been no real follow through and this looks the same. Break above 2401 to 2406, then down to 2353. Break above 2454 to 2463 then back to 2450. Break above 2483 to 2491 then down to 2417. This is the problem with not having proper corrections – it starts looking quite tired when it makes new highs. Odds look good we drop off here towards 2480 even if there’s subsequently more upside to come

    • If you are trading RUT simply keep and eye on 1431 as its very interesting, powerful level and very close to 61.8% retracement. But remember, when shorting there must me enough selling pressure to allow the market to penetrate the next level of resistance which in the case of RUT would be today’s high of 1425. And then after its below resistance, allow to trade back up and short it at resistance. Let others do the dirty work.

  5. jhjoyner says:

    Hopefully the SPX will close 2500 by Friday.

  6. phil1247 says:

    ES
    as you can see we are very close to the ext long and traditional long targets
    of 2495 and 2496
    should the ext long support at 2486 fail …..
    you surely must bail

    can you hear that sound in the background???

    why ….its the steve miller band warming up
    can anyone guess what song they are getting ready to play ??

    see ya !

  7. fionamargaret says:

    Is this viable, or am I clutching at straws….
    http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_Sep_6_2017.htm

    I bought VXX ….44 ish is the base of my pattern…pullback in the averages..SPXS, TZA, SQQQ
    UWT..long oil, UGAZ..long gas..

  8. Friday’s close 2461, new ATH 2495 +(34) coincidence? I think not.

  9. Interesting 9/11 pattern.  The market has rallied on each of the last four 9/11’s, but pulled back, and in some cases dramatically, the following day each time. 

    In 2013 the S&P gained 5-points on 9/11.  On the 12th it lost 6-points.

    In 2014 the S&P gained 2-points on 9/11.  On the 12th it lost 12-points.

    In 2015 the S&P gained 9-points on 9/11.  On the 12th it lost 8-points.  The following days saw wild swings.

    9/11 in 2016 was a Sunday but on the 12th the S&P 500 gained 31-points.  On the 13th it lost 32-points.

    So I don’t know if the market shows some patriotic buying on 9/11, but exhales on the following day, but there is a slight pattern.  September can be a wild month with a lot of volatility and perhaps it is coincidence. 
    We’ll see about today.Doesn’t look like it yet.Good luck all.

  10. fotis2 says:

    USD/JPY pops higher daily 3BR in play CL having one of its ”I don’t know where I want to go”days new highs for S&P that was really not a surprise,surprise is no one bothering anyone today.

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Have a good day all. Trade safe. Well done those that went long on the pb.

    NEWBIE says:
    September 6, 2017 at 6:09 pm
    Futures!! We are starting a c wave down to 2300, that kicks off tommorow. If your long you in trouble squirrelly.

  12. lunker1 says:

    JK 12 posts.
    LIMIT 3

  13. jobjas says:

    USD/CAD completes correction

  14. Ira sez:GDX still embedded,but a down day tomorrow (likely)will take it down to the 18d at 23.75.
    Me:Poof.From 25.60 to 23.75 in two days.Meanwhile equities don’t even get a multiweek selloff from a monster -div on the weekly.Once again,25.60 to 26 is THE most important breakout area for GDX.Dollar might rally now,but when it sells off again,it’ll take under 91 or 90.5 to get GDX to break out.This was all for show,the last month.Good luck all.

  15. blubrd67 says:

    My goal for UVXY reaching 27 is done… this should bounce a bit back to 29/30, before reaching lower 25, before more serious movement upwards.

    • JK1987 says:

      fiona, thank you. a great read with JD Saut, i agree many points he listed.
      timing:
      Jeff quoted Genesis about “forty days and forty nights”
      Jeff also mentioned “pullback the next two weeks are the likeliest timeframe”.

      from the spx/dji top on Aug 8,
      adding “forty days and forty nights” is Oct 2.
      adding two weeks from here is Oct 2.
      that’s the same date as my crash D-day that i have been posted!

      Jeff probably like riddles. i don’t know if Jeff sees the same price and time pattern that i discovered.
      but if Jeff sees the same price and time pattern that i discovered, then his downside target should not be only confined to 2300-2400 after drawing a few S/R.
      i like reading Jeff’s papers. and i start to like him as the way he presented.

      for oil, listen to Jeff, either Jeff is right about the downside price, or i am right about the Crash.
      oil should go crash down with the market as a whole.
      cheers!

      • fionamargaret says:

        A nice encapsulation JK ‘tho I don’t know if he means everything to be taken literally…I shall re-read…I was busy with my own briefs (writing…. and washing).
        Jeffrey is a good man (old musician) who has a good grasp on life and logic…x

        • JK1987 says:

          fiona, imho, “everything”, and i do mean it even though i do not trade most of them.
          you probably know, so far, i am not wrong about oil.
          so far, i am not wrong about gold, miners, and that’s only the MT/IT reading. i also hold an “ACE” for gold LT.

          i will miss the market tomorrow as a needed procedure in the hospital.
          i love music.

          good night.
          cheers!

          • fionamargaret says:

            Listen to the video I just left for Fotis..totally beautiful…and all the best with your hospital procedure…x

        • Please remember to take what Jeff says with a bit of Saut. 🙂

      • vivelaamo says:

        Jk RJ are saying dips will be shallow and are to be bought. You are saying it is a major top.

        All the best with hospital procedure. Hope everything ok.

    • locanbbs says:

      RJ file seems to be empty. Link?

  16. phil1247 says:

    NQ …..

    target ………………………6100

  17. I have no idea how to count this, I’m not alone obviously.
    If we are working on 5 waves up from 2417 2455-2428-2480-2447- wave 5 should be no more than 51 bringing this to 2498. Yet micro 1 was 85 points making this micro 3 only 81 points, which a 3 should be the longest and it shouldn’t be if a 5 wave up. Anyway after a pull back to 2468 1 more wave up to max 80 points less then 3 could get us to 2548 max. That makes minor 5 210 points and a 50 percent retrace brings us down to 2438. A whole 2.5 percent lower then we are now. Then Int 5 equal to 1 is another 300 points higher 2738 to end . Then after a 938 up then you can get a 20 percent decline but even then that’s only 2300.
    Idk lots of counts out there

    Good luck all

  18. Thanks Tony. 2525 here we come.

  19. 123 abc says:

    Tony, hope all is well; a question in regards to the DOW if I may (on behalf of JK 😉 )…

    If the bullish count on the SPX hourly chart prevails, and DOW makes new all-time highs; would this imply either…

    (a). The DOW completed Intermediate-iii at 22180, and completed Intermediate-iv at 21600; or,
    (b). The DOW completed Minute-i at 22180, and completed Minute-ii at 21600

    If (b) from above; then once again (and I apologise!), wouldn’t the following count nicely align the SPX and DOW charts…?


    • tony caldaro says:

      The DOW is in Minor 5 of Int. iii until there is a downtrend

    • JK1987 says:

      how about both dow and spx are having ending diagonal, all sync now?
      https://gyazo.com/0f9f3f725ce07521fd0fe4db23df8322

      • That’s a I Gilbert alt count, which should be the main count.

        • JK1987 says:

          Gilbert who?
          on both dji and spx?
          i just saw this count myself after the close.
          i trade neither of them.
          for the market i am trading, i am certain about the counts. i just don’t want to day trade. position trade till my goal reached.

        • Avi gilburt
          Google him, will come up with today’s chart. Looking for 2498 ish then an abc down. I’m onboard with that.
          Good luck

          • JK1987 says:

            tryingtomakeabuck, thank you, i only saw his Sunday 0910 counts. i am not going to sign up his site.
            Avi presented two alternate counts, contradicting to each other.
            i see both of his counts are wrong.

            now i finished review all major indices, there are some subtle things i don’t see anybody see it yet. my conclusion is:
            we are on schedule for the Crash, preferred crash into Oct 2 As-JK-Said.

            • Have no idea about timing, but I think your close to a major correction. If you conceide the Dow is in minor 5 of Int 3. When it finishes Int 4 should follow. Int 2 was like .38 retrace. Possible for 4 to be deep .5 or .618 of the move up. Int 3 started at 17,000, so say Int 3 end at 22,500. That’s 5,500 up 50 percent retrace is 20,250 that’s a 10 percent pull back even if so gets to 2550 a 10 percent pull pack is 255 points 2295. So I am expecting sp2300 sometime in October and I’m short from yesterday’s close. I hope you are right,
              Good luck

      • tommyboys says:

        JK. Don’t look to the Naz A/D for direction. It almost has to fall by definition. Most Nasdaq issues are speculative at best and chronically on their way to bankruptcy. It’s a speculative index. It’s only the heavy weighted big boys driving there while the bulk of the names fail. Not a true indication of what the “real” market is doing. If it topped three years ago and meant anything tge Naz would be well on its way down by now. Even the NYSE AD only tops maybe 6-24 months ahead of the index itself.

        • JK1987 says:

          tommy, thank you for the advice.
          for Nasdaq/Ndx, i know many ingredients about them, not just A/D.
          maybe i don’t know the counts about spx and dji, so i don’t touch them. i just study them to know the general market.
          but i believe i know well about the counts and forms for ndx and rut. both of them are textbook forms.

    • There is a Wolfe Wave 5 completion at Monday’s close, expect a swift 50(Dow) point drop here…

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $FTSE at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  21. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    a few questions of the spx daily count.
    1. is the int iv count still valid? will a new ATH invalidate the count? or what will invalidate this count?
    2. after minor b, spx had 3 waves down, and have 5 waves up (with overlapping of 1st and 4th wave). how are we going to subdivide count the minor c?
    3. what’s the maximum allowed downside for int iv if this still is a valid count?
    something like this:
    https://gyazo.com/a4e1b9aae5b74da4b1c2f744af186ce8
    Thanks

    • tony caldaro says:

      You asked questions all weekend, now you have more questions?
      1. ATH invalidates
      2. 5 overlapping waves up is not impulsive
      3. had not thought about it

      • JK1987 says:

        Tony Thank you for the patient.
        i just can not figure out the count for spx.
        7 waves up into 2490.87,
        3 waves down to 2417.35,
        5 overlapping 5 waves to 2488.95, and it’s not impulsive (that means not the 60m 1-2 count either?)
        a very strange wave combination 7-3-5

        cmucha68, i do position trade, a 5 digits loss on my account today.
        you gain on my money and satisfied now?

      • SPYtrader says:

        LOL!!

        • JK1987 says:

          SPYtrader, what’s so funny about my loss today? you feel good taking my money? 😠

          • SPYtrader says:

            actually I got a chuckle cause I have been here off and on for years and I don’t think I have ever asked Mr. C a question. I feel so incomplete. I did make money today in the SPY options so if you lost in there I could be to blame although I did not take all 5 digits.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Jk, do ever trade at all ?

      • hohoho598 says:

        He doesn’t trade, waaaayyyy too much talk and no action.
        Anyone who proclaims to lose 5 (or even gain 5) digits on their trading are not on this site (or any site) guaranteed.
        In this game you need to be no talk and all action.

        • JK1987 says:

          what if i show you the 5-digit loss for today?
          or if necessary i can send that screenshot to Tony.
          recently up and down 5-digits a lot, sometimes on a daily basis, i am used to it, no big deal.

        • JK1987 says:

          as a matter of fact, i also have 5-digit gain last Friday. screenshot also available.
          today my account down more than last Friday, both days are 5-digit up & down.

          • hohoho598 says:

            I can send screenshots of demo accounts too if you like. Hey set up 2 accounts in different names with opposite trades then click a screenshot when it suits. Don’t bother.

            • JK1987 says:

              demo accounts? what’s that? if you can, i like to see it.

              2 accounts in different names with opposite trades? who would do that to have opposite trades?
              do you know how much money needed to have 5-digit loss in one day?
              and i only use cash account, no margin account.

              anyway, i see you only constantly bashing people, never contribute anything regarding the market.
              i have you on ignore list now.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Jk you don’t need to prove anything. You do post a lot and will probably be wrong about the major top, but you do back it up with charts and analysis so not sure how people can complain. As Phil said previously just ignore the trolls.

  22. Thanks Tony. I had expected a move up but more of a gap close rather than extending to the last fragment of structure on 2491. With the benefit of hindsight the whole move since 2417 is likely impulsive: 2455-2428-2480-2447- 2479? Similar to your count but with no nano subdivision, placing us in nano 5 of Micro 3? If 77 shows up again, you know the math.

  23. Mr C,is the(S&P)weekly -div in play or has that one been jettisoned?Thanks.

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