weekend update

REVIEW

This holiday shortened week started at SPX 2275. The market opened lower on Tuesday, remained in the same lower range on Wednesday, dropped to SPX 2258 on Thursday, then rallied to 2277 on Friday, and ended the week at 2271. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.25% and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. On the economic front reports came in quite positive. On the downtick: the NY FED and the NAHB. On the uptick: the CPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports include: Q4 GDP, leading indicators and durable goods orders. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

There is a new sheriff in town. Donald J Trump was sworn in Friday as the 45th President of the USA. The Trump rally, as this uptrend has been called, started just a couple of days before the election and continued into mid-December. Since then the market has made little progress either up or down during the past 5 weeks. Nevertheless the long term count remains unchanged.

spxweekly

We continue to label the May 2015 high as Primary I, and the February 2016 low as Primary II. A Primary III bull market has been underway since that February low at SPX 1810. Currently there are three sets of waves up from that low: Intermediate waves i and ii, Minor waves 1 and 2, and probably Minute waves i and ii. With Minute wave ii currently underway. When it concludes Minute iii should kick in to the upside and take the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

From the early November low at SPX 2084 the uptrend has progressed in five waves. The five waves are now best counted as SPX: 2147-2125-2214-2187-2278. The recent short term action in the SPX has not occurred during any uptrend in this bull market, only during pullbacks/corrections. As a result, the correct count appears to be the one we have been posting on the daily chart below.

spxdaily

This count suggests Minute wave i ended at SPX 2278. Then an A wave declined to SPX 2234, a B wave rallied to SPX 2282, and currently a C wave down is underway. It does not, however, conclude that the B wave ended at SPX 2282. It could go higher before the C wave down. In either case the C wave should end the pullback/correction in the coming weeks. Medium term support is at the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The preferred count, Minute wave i ending at SPX 2278, provides us with some definitive parameters going forward. Regardless of where the B wave ends the most common low for Minute wave ii would be to retest SPX 2234, to form an irregular flat. The next probable support levels, if the B wave ended at SPX 2282, would be the following.

spxhourly

If the C wave is 1.618 times the A wave, then the 2212 pivot would provide support. If the C is twice the A wave, then SPX 2194 would provide support. If the C is 2.618 times the A wave, then the 2177 pivot would provide support. Short term support is currently at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. Best to your trading next week!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.5%.

European markets were also mostly lower for a 1.2% loss.

The DJ World index lost 0.3%, and the NYSE index lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be in an uptrend but lost 0.2%.

Crude is in an uptrend and gained 1.6%.

Gold is in an uptrend too and gained 0.7%.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: existing home sales. Wednesday: the FHFA housing index. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, leading indicators and new home sales. Friday: Q4 GDP (est. +2.2%), durable goods and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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192 Responses to weekend update

  1. Ajay Singhi says:

    Two things became clear today: 1) SPX won’t cross 2300 in this rally and 2) 2232 should break before 2287(should happen in the next 2 days).

  2. captbara says:

    Market is doing a repeat of the painful Jul – Aug grind. Yuck.

  3. kvilia says:

    Some astonishing calls on gold, yet we are grinding up. Stochastics cross over 80 down from being overbought on daily and immediately turned up – a sign for continuing uptrend. Hold unless 1206 is broken.

  4. Interesting that GDX has a slight -div on the daily 5RSI but the 14RSI is fine.Higher high also.Goldfingers crossed on further upside.With bonds seemingly short term bullish….the next month in PM, hopefully stays bullish.Good luck all.

  5. I have been a long time reader and follower of this blog (nearly a decade). I was always appreciative and respectful of the time and effort Mr Caldaro put into his workproduct………..and never asked for anything in return but some basic human respect. His graciousness was most exemplified by the fact the effort herein was never monetized for personal gain or otherwise.

    Because of this history, I was surprised and painfully disappointed of the type of postings made on this site since the US election, but more so the commentary from this past weekend. It bothered me to read that “for the good of the country the public and MSM should follow”…….who exactly……an acknowledged sexual predator ?………..a person who has never paid his fair share in taxes but has greatly benefit ted personally from all the bountiful things America has to offer…………a person who hasn’t shown anything of what he has done for the common good other than profits mightily for his own pocket book………….and if any one should dare question it, stand up to it or voice their objection to it they get labeled a sore loser? Rubbish, I say.

    I am nearing the end of my eighth decade. The first half of my life I was raised and lived in a Eastern European country more backward than words can describe and that a typical American can possibly understand. I learned early on what it meant “to lets just follow for the common good.” How basic human decencies were trampled on because it was easier to look the other way…………because it was easier to accept/tolerate/enable the false narratives pushed for personal gain that was in total contradiction of the public good. And, I can say this because I lost most of my family , and have endured all the suffering attendant to that loss due to the fact………it was easier to just go along.

    My life was saved and turned around by a simple twist of fate (luck) and I was able to spend some thirty productive and fulfilled years because i ended up in the USA. I got to see lives flourish because bright people questioned everything………their teachers……..their schools, their community leaders, their superiors at work..their doctors. I could go on. The questioning is from where personal growth enlightenment comes from. I witnessed it first hand………the before/and the after. And this forum now promotes that the American citizenry and specifically this blog’s readership should just fall in line so some can line their pockets a little more ? Three million people marched not because they are sore losers, but most likely because they are fearful of what they are hearing words over and over for the past year that are more concealing than they have ever been revealing.. I read George Orwell’s 1984 in the first year or 2 of my landing in the States. Some people read that work as a warning. It seems this new administration thought it was their guide.

    God bless.

    glangdale

    • tony caldaro says:

      Gloria,
      Will reply to you in kind, since your concerns are quite extensive.
      However, the political discussion ended at midnight, last night, and will delete any adds on to this thread.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Gloria,
      Thank you for your decade-long readership. It is unfortunate the first half of your life put you through those experiences. There must have been a really good reason.
      As I near the end if my 7th decade, all of which has been in this country, I understand we all go through our own travails if we are to learn and grow, and share those experiences with others.
      In another time and place I too would have been concerned about the direction of this country under the new administration. I was concerned under the G W Bush administration, and the Obama administration up to a specific point in time. Not because of them individually. But because they were at the helm of the country in a very critical period: a secular Crisis cycle. But that, in my opinion, has passed.
      While some of the character traits of the new POTUS leave a lot to be desired. The voters of this country chose him from the 25 or so that entered this election cycle. He won despite his character flaws, the media, democratic party opposition, and even strong opposition from his own party. That in itself was quite astounding.
      Since we are exiting a Crisis cycle and entering a Growth cycle, the elective has chosen the one that best fits the new cycle. It was a very contentious campaign. One for the Ages. And no matter which one had won, DJT or HRC, there would be many, many that would be dissatisfied. Let’s give the winner a chance and see where it leads.
      all the best,
      tony

    • dan pulford says:

      Our new responsibility is accountability. Accept the now, it is in front of you.

  6. phil1247 says:

    TONY

    please delete my posts from 10: 22 am today and 10: 29

    thanks

  7. TLT hadn’t been above the 20d sma since October.Went above the last couple weeks,then tagged the upper BB.Headed back down to the 20d and bounced strongly.Gold loves it,dollar does not.Question:Is this a one day wonder or a month long trend?Promising.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Great long entry here with little risk and great reward…stop at 2258 target 2290ish. See triangle count I posted courtesy of NK.

  9. H D says:

    Nice pivot Tony! all month

  10. Dex T says:

    Trump to sign orders to renegotiate NAFTA, pull out of TPP: NBC

    “U.S. President Donald Trump could sign an executive order as early as Monday intended to renegotiate the free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, NBC News reported, citing an unidentified White House official. In addition to wanting to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the new Republican president also intends to sign an executive order pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-sign-order-early-monday-renegotiate-nafta-nbc-125905061–business.html

  11. blackjak100 says:

    Below 2258.41 invalidates the triangle count I posted sat. look for downward momentum to increase if it’s taken out.

  12. wildmarkets says:

    “NEWBIE says:
    January 22, 2017 at 9:08 pm

    Ariez, I voted for Trump because he was the lesser of the two evils.”

    Bears wanted market to fall on Trump’s win but market rallied lol

  13. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  14. bfquant says:

    TC. In a recent post you suggested a correction of up to 5% may be in the cards. Does your statement that ii at 2234 being a common low for the irregular flat suggest that you now believe the correction will be shallower?

  15. opader says:

    Thank you Tony … My thoughts: http://balancetrading.org

  16. Jack Sparrow says:

    Our dilemma of lately is that we are only capable of thinking along party lines and then either try to rationalize or argue accordingly without looking at the merit of the situation. Was Obama intellectually great person the answer is yes, was he is too passive especially with our foreign policies which allowed Russia and china to grow stronger and ISIS to thrive in Iraq- the answer is yes., is he a decent human being and gentleman- the answer is yes. did he take over the country when it was in bad shape financially the answer is yes.
    did trump demean everyone around him during election- the answer is yes, does he lie – the answer is yes, will he be strong towards china- the answer is yes (dont know about russia), did he make good choice in selecting the secretary of defense and home land secretary (the two generals)- the answer is yes…. did he and his staff screwed up in last two days in every aspect – the answer is yes.

    what is so difficult about calling the way it is

    • Jack,that’s the way YOU see it.But that’s fine.I’ll just take one of your points and say Obama is not intellectually “great”.In fact,a lot of his decisions were not based on intellect,but race and politics.He did not back up police against criminals.(which gave a nod for the rioting we saw the last year).He did in fact let out many drug dealers early.Those guys are murderers by association in my book.He did back BLM.His insistence on having immigrants and refugees pour in is strictly sowing seeds for future elections.It’s all very cynical and the topper is–he and Clinton are Soros cronies.THAT’S not a compliment.
      Meanwhile,tonight gold trying to break 1218.Dollar sliding nicely.Maybe the chart I showed a couple weeks back(drop to 97-98 before a rebound)comes to fruition.That would equate with 1250 gold and maybe 25ish GDX.See you all tomorrow.

  17. Page says:

    The long awaited correction begins Monday, will be dangerous to catch the falling knife.

  18. tony caldaro says:

    The Inaugural weekend political/climate change free-for-all is over at midnight EST.
    thank you for your cooperation

  19. ariez5 says:

    Thank you to lcdoo and aahmichael for your comments. To those who want to conflate the actions of a few anarchists in one city on Friday with the millions of peaceful marchers on Saturday, I would like to ask, should I conflate you with KKK members, since David Duke and his followers supported Trump?
    Trump is a would-be dictator. The term is from Soros, one of the greatest hedge fund managers who has ever lived (those who dare to call him out for his loss of a billion – how many billions do you have?). I re-use it because it is perfect. See

    and

    “Alternative facts”???? That Trump would spend his first full days in office trying to demonize the media and throw doubt on well-documented truths shows the world that his priority is not to serve the American people but to manipulate public opinion of him personally. If he were to succeed in cowing the media, his ability to demonize and persecute anyone who stood in his way would be limitless. It is the way of all would-be dictators.
    Tony, I think history will show you to be very wrong to call those opposing Trump sore losers. It is an act of pure patriotism to fight the flurry of lies and attempted manipulation coming from the White House now.
    I strongly expect the markets to sniff out very soon that having a wildly ignorant, narcissistic and pathological liar in the White House is a source of enormous instability for the country and the world.

    • tony caldaro says:

      If Hillary would have won, and the next day 3M men marched in protest what say you then?
      Time will tell.
      BTW, watched the Inauguration … MSM used white out.

      • ariez5 says:

        Had Hillary won and the next day 3 million people had marched to express discontent with her policies and her belligerent and narcissistic language, I would have suggested that Hillary listen up very closely. And I would wager she would have done so. Not so, Trump. He does everything he can to cover up the truth.
        About the Inauguration, it sounds like you are buying the conspiracy BS. The Washington metro data points to the same difference in audience size.

        • jjjzzzwww says:

          trump has consistently gotten away with playing to people’s fantasies with “alternative facts”, eventually, the rubber will meet the road

        • NEWBIE says:

          The pictures of the inauguration for Obama were right as the event kicked off. The pictures for Trumps inauguration was several hours before the event started. Trumps inauguration had 10 million more television viewers than Obama’s last inauguration.

          • jjjzzzwww says:

            yet another alternative fact …lol

          • ariez5 says:

            Nope, Newbie. A time-lapse video produced by PBS shows that at no time was the National Mall anywhere near full at any time on Friday. Watch for yourself. And “According to the preliminary data from Nielsen for inauguration coverage, 30.6 million television viewers in the United States watched Trump’s swearing-in, 19 percent below the audience of 37.8 million for Obama’s 2009 inauguration.” (Washington Post and Nielsen)
            But the point is not who is more popular (There is no doubt that Trump’s popularity in polls is half of what Obama’s was when sworn-in). The point is that Trump would spend his whole first weekend as President complaining about the press over how they treat him (as well as lying to the CIA!) Is this why you voted for this thin-skinned crybaby? Didn’t you have other things in mind – say health insurance, jobs, or making America “great” again? Is this behavior elevates the nation or that sinks it further into a quagmire?

      • aahmichael says:

        Wait a sec. The MSM used white out? Surely you’re kidding. I think this is what you’re actually referring to.
        http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/20/14334846/trump-inauguration-grass-national-mall

    • tommyboys says:

      Soros bad news for Capitalism and the US. He’s insighted violence throughout the primaries and election. He’s prolly behind yesterday’s pointless “march”. He wants a one world order – a child of a slave camp in WW2 – he’s nuts and bad for US. He got lucky on timing in shorting currencies kick starting his career – so he’s a hypocrite as well. Sorryway over – done and back to markets.

    • aahmichael says:

      There was another lie that Trump told yesterday as well. Standing in front of the hallowed wall where the 117 stars represent fallen heroes who have protected this country, Trump chose that moment to brag that he had appeared on the cover of Time magazine more times than anyone else in history. While that statement has barely been mentioned by anyone in the media, Time magazine surely took notice. They quickly corrected Trump’s false claim, and said that the person who has appeared on the Time cover more than anyone is Richard Nixon. Of course, Trump could surely surpass the number of times Nixon appeared on the cover, and if he does, then it will no doubt be for the same reasons.

  20. vivelaamo says:

    As a Brit I find both the protests agains Brexit and Trump a complete disgrace. Regardless of your thoughts what is the point of democracy if you going to protest or demonstrate when you lose. In the example of Brexit many that voted to remain consider themselves the educated intelligent people of the Uk. Yet they condone this disgraceful beheavour. Makes me sick.

  21. Jack Sparrow says:

    its also funny all the discussion about co2 /global warming -everyone becoming an expert…anyone from china on this board,,, please tell the others why you have to wear mask every other day because of black plume and why china has put a ban or oil fired and certain size coal fired power plants after screwing up their environment…its funny everyone becomes expert from internet research…

      • tommyboys says:

        This China/India/third world in general condition further invalidates ANYTHING the US may or may not do with regard to climate. Whether its real or not we cannot control what these other countries do – and these have become the smoking gun for sure – pun intended.

        • Jack Sparrow says:

          Your rationale does not make sense.

          actually it validates the fact that fossil fuel does impact the environment- the environment is not just about CO2 but 100 other things that go with it..now you can argue if china , india or any other country is doing its share or not (and if they are not then they are facing the consequences) but that is a different argument then saying we should go ahead with fossil fuel combustion because it does not impact the environment- it does. The reason why we are still sitting pretty is because of all the stringent pollution control equipment we employ in those fossil fuel plants …we do this to save our back yard where our kids and next generation will breathe not because we are trying to do favor to china or india unless you want to make your backyard like china or india but all these control measures can only do much

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            and the fact that coal business is suffering in the US is not because of some renewable stuff or treaties but because gas (after massive shale discoveries) have displaced coal as a choice of fuel,,,the electricity produced by gas is almost half the price and much cleaner…that is the reason why coal industry has suffered.

  22. captbara says:

    Soros doubling down on shorts.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-says-trump-uncertainty-will-cause-global-markets-to-falter-2017-01-19?siteid=rss&rss=1

    Now for a little pre-inaugural billionaire-on-billionaire verbal hostility. George Soros on Thursday predicted the stock-market rally that followed Donald Trump’s November election victory will fade once he takes office and investors are confronted with the “uncertainty” surrounding the new administration’s policies.

    “Right now uncertainty is at a peak,” Soros told Bloomberg in a TV interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “And, actually, uncertainty is the enemy of long-term investment. So I don’t think the markets are going to do very well.”

  23. Page says:

    Atlanta Falcons killing Green Bay Packers. I think Super Bowl will be between Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots.

  24. What everyone fails to mention in all the election vote argument is that Trump WON 30 states to 20 for Clinton.To me that says more than losing the popular vote–which was totally skewed by minority votes in California,N.Y. and Illinois.If he had somehow lost more states than he won,I would consider THAT illegitimate–and Clinton almost pulled that one off.Imagine losing more states than you win and becoming president.She wouldn’t have apologized and given up the office,I’m sure.
    Later.

    • Page says:

      I think election is over, now let’s concentrate on impeachment 😀

      • tony caldaro says:

        Which Presidents of the United States have been impeached?
        Two Presidents of the United States have been impeached by the House of Representatives, Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998. Neither was convicted by the Senate, so both completed their terms.

        next …

    • aahmichael says:

      That reasoning is the equivalent of Bill Clinton saying, “It depends upon what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”

    • tommyboys says:

      Learned this is correct. Even more poignant Clinton won 500 counties while Trump won 2500. So who really won popular?

      • aahmichael says:

        I don’t know what country you live in, but in the United States, the popular vote is determined by the amount of individual votes that each candidate receives. How many school districts, precincts, towns, cities, counties, or states a candidate wins has no bearing on the determination of the popular vote at all. There is no question who won the popular vote in 2016. To claim otherwise is absurd.

  25. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is GOLD at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  26. Good comments this weekend.Just in a wait and see mode for most of these markets–especially gold and the dollar.Thanks Mr C for the framework.My thoughts for the year concern the idea of “What would cause the usual first year recession”?
    1.Trade Wars
    2.Bond market implosion
    3.Trump impeachment
    4.No real tax cuts or infrastructure legislation
    5.Brexit,European elections etc.
    Not out of the realm of possibilities. The interesting one is Trump impeachment.Schumer was on today saying Trump is still too connected to his businesses.Everyone’s looking for something to snag him on.Nothing too minor either.One rag website said “Trump broke the law by erasing a tweet.He can’t do that as president”.
    Whatever.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The MSM, Democrats and disappointed voters will fight this administration tooth and nail, and Trump will still get things done despite the noise. Instead of coming together for the good of the country they prefer to be ‘sore losers’.

      • aahmichael says:

        For the last 8 years, the Republicans completely rejected the idea of “coming together for the good of the country.” Trump himself rejected that idea, as he led the birther movement in a non-stop attempt to delegitimize Obama’s presidency. On election day 2012, Trump famously tweeted “We can’t let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!” I’m afraid that Trump is forever going to be haunted by the fact that he never won the majority of the vote in the primaries, there were 11 million more people who voted against him in the general election than voted for him, his closest opponent got 2.9 million more votes than he did, and he entered office with the lowest approval rating of any President in the history of our country. My personal opinion is that yesterday’s demonstrations will go down in history as the start of the American Spring.

        • tommyboys says:

          Thank god for the electoral college. ONE State alone – CA – taken away would have given Trump a 2M+ popular vote victory across the nation.. A very good thing the California privileged class isn’t able to speak for the hard working little guys in bread and butter America – the class that sacrificed and built this country.

          • tommyboys says:

            “Polls” aren’t worth the energy it takes to utter the word. I can give you any possible poll result you wish. Trump at a 90% popularity rate amongst true right wing conservatives – and 10% on the left…OF COURSE! Meaningless media nonsense.

        • Jack Sparrow says:

          I am also kind surprised by TC comments- as an independent i can see both sides being sore losers- right after obama was elected what was that special meeting held by senior republicans to stall all efforts by obama and nothing happened in next 8 years (partly obama’s fault for his passivity and partly republicans)….its amazing how we only think along party lines…we have totally given up our objectivity as a nation.

          • tony caldaro says:

            sore losers then (Obama), and sore losers now (Trump)
            only the sides of the table have changed
            nevertheless, for 8 years they worked fairly well together … no depression
            politicians will eventually come together for the good of the country
            but will the public and MSM follow?

    • fotis2 says:

      Never mind Brexit the way things going over here in lalaland Europe I would be not be surprised to see EUREXIT on the cards very soon.

  27. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  28. torehund says:

    This is a dream situation, Tony with P-III and Armstrong thinking a phase shift could be in the works (equivalent to a P-III in squeeze mode). Thats not all, Dent is opposing.
    If history is any guide, load up 🙂

  29. stormchaser80 says:

    Time for another Login Free Friday blog post. If you like my posts, please consider signing up for a FREE subscription to allow you to view posts like these everyday!

    As I have been saying lately, the market has been trading narrowly around the 2270 pivot since December 11th, with only a brief tumble at the end of 2016. Bollinger Bands are quite tight on SPX, Oil, and HYG:IEF. How tight? Well they are just about as tight as ever recorded since my data goes back to 2002 on the SPX Daily. Meanwhile my proprietary Volatility Models indicate today’s market is only more volatile than 0.4%/0.2% of the time since 1990.

    So that begs the question, what are we building up to? The answer, nobody knows for sure. Market Internals and Breadth along with my proprietary Technicals Model have been weak here over the past month. However this could very well be consolidation before another leg up as much as forming a top. Despite my Legacy LONG signal being bullish, I think the my prudent thing to do here is to monitor trends before waging any large bets.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  30. torehund says:

    Agree on your count Tony, its clockwork.
    Indu 60 min chart here on Tonys site; look at the macd from Nov 5. First wave retraced all until turn of 2017. Thereafter a small wave up which is also fully retraced. So the Dow is yet again the most READY of the indices, as I see it.
    Liberals and progressives going cold Turkey all over the place, marching here in Norway in droves….Not a time to retrieve my dancing shoes YET, maybe P-III will do its magic and turn them all into Barbie -dolls ala Trumps latest catch 🙂 Its all in the waves, and yes lets wait for a better wave..This world still stinks of that P-II bottom, uuugh.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Millions of women marching across America today too

      • tommyboys says:

        Do they even know why they are marching? Have a sister who went to DC to march – REALLY? Have they been slighted some how? Is Trump anti-woman, anti-gay, anti-black, anti-hispanic? What exactly are they fearing in Trump? Are they against people entering our country legally? Are they afraid Trump is going to take on radical islamic terrorists? Are they against saying Merry Christmas once/year or using God’s name in schools? Do they feel they should have a right of first refusal over a defenseless unborn fetus? What exactly are they marching for? Do they know? Is this just a fat Soros – misinformation – funded uprising? Why did “protesters” put rocks through businesses that support THEM and vice-versa and supported Hilary – Starbucks & BAC etc…(?) I’m confused…

      • Emotionally damaged white women on a therapy march after the shock of election eve. Youtube’s got hundreds of clips of them losing their minds.

  31. dan pulford says:

    Thanks Tony, imo fri close appeared to have some up left to go. Stops set tight in TNA.

  32. mcgcapital says:

    Thanks Tony. Would 2234 again be enough to confirm and complete a downtrend? Only just over 2% from the high so seems shallow vs most pullbacks we’ve had in this bull market. Looking at the chart I was thinking more 2180-2200 to find support then up again.

  33. captbara says:

    Key level for the dollar here

    • CB says:

      Nice LT chart. The USD seems to be coiling just like equities right now .
      A break-out in the USD right now looks pretty problematic , I think (the ST technical picture is weak). It could easily break that ST support as the Fed may actually have to take a wait-and-see attitude at their next meeting….we’ll see.
      GL everyone.

      P.S. Have you guys seen what Tim Knight posted re: the “march” – He said: “Can you imagine the length of the lines at Washington D.C. women’s bathrooms today?” 😉 ..lol.. OK, finally someone is thinking about what women really want… “infrastructure” 🙂

  34. blackjak100 says:

    The similarities of the double inside week in dec 1999 to now are eerily similar. In 1999, the breakout was up. The slope of MACD is almost identical and the daily & weekly RSI (5) are nearly identical as well. There’s only been 3 since…feb 2008, oct 2016, and jan 2017 so sample size is small. If this is the case, here’s NK count which fits the B wave higher TC mentioned. I really like this count. It suggests a quick thrust up Mon out of triangle followed by a C wave down. What are potential targets from 2234 to complete B?

    .618*(a) = 2295
    .5*(a) = 2289
    1.272*A = 2285 (typical B wave in expanded flat)
    1.382*A = 2289 (typical B wave in expanded flat)

    Look for reversal 2285-2295 and think GTO mentioned fib confluence @ 2288 which is right in the zone.

  35. Great commentary Tony, as usual.
    But I have to side with the bulls here.
    On the economic news front, I think Pres Trump will quickly go on the offensive..
    That’s his marketing style.
    Shock and Awe. Gen. George “Blood and Guts” Patton. Gen Curtis “Bombs-Away” LeMay.
    Back when men were made of steel, and boats were made of wood, and women liked it that way
    … Jay Leno

    Anyway …
    If you are short, probably best to make sure you can cover it quickly.

  36. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony do you believe Trump indicating he wants a weaker USD is one of those times when one needs to watch what they do and not what they say (i.e. the USD will probably get stronger instead)? I note recently a lot of people seem to now be beginning to believe that the USD will weaken a lot more based on his comments recently.

  37. blackjak100 says:

    2nd double inside week in the last 3 months and prior to that…2 in the last 6 years. Of the last 3, this one looks most like the one in 1999 which broke upwards. The other 2 occurred during downwards movement. We shall see…

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2oifmPWIAASq_Z.jpg:large

    • blackjak100 says:

      meant to say before that 2 in the last 9 years…1999 and 2008.

      • gary61b says:

        Blackjak100, does that mean you visit mystic often?

        • blackjak100 says:

          no, haven’t been there in years even though I live about 5 miles from there. I was there when I was 18 shortly after it opened in 1991ish.

          • gary61b says:

            The name you use and you mentioned working for a builder in the twin cities area, I had to ask. I am about 15 miles away and I have been there, but only for dinner 🙂

  38. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Y/M/W Pivot Resistance Confluence @ 2288

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/a6jsLHW1/

  39. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  40. gary61b says:

    Tony, is there a rule on the max. amount over extend of ‘B” past starting of “A” and still be considered an irregular flat. Thanks.

  41. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks TC – even though I totally disagree with your ever bullish count, I believe we’re in P5

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