weekend update


This holiday shortened week started at SPX 2275. The market opened lower on Tuesday, remained in the same lower range on Wednesday, dropped to SPX 2258 on Thursday, then rallied to 2277 on Friday, and ended the week at 2271. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.25% and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. On the economic front reports came in quite positive. On the downtick: the NY FED and the NAHB. On the uptick: the CPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports include: Q4 GDP, leading indicators and durable goods orders. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

There is a new sheriff in town. Donald J Trump was sworn in Friday as the 45th President of the USA. The Trump rally, as this uptrend has been called, started just a couple of days before the election and continued into mid-December. Since then the market has made little progress either up or down during the past 5 weeks. Nevertheless the long term count remains unchanged.


We continue to label the May 2015 high as Primary I, and the February 2016 low as Primary II. A Primary III bull market has been underway since that February low at SPX 1810. Currently there are three sets of waves up from that low: Intermediate waves i and ii, Minor waves 1 and 2, and probably Minute waves i and ii. With Minute wave ii currently underway. When it concludes Minute iii should kick in to the upside and take the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

From the early November low at SPX 2084 the uptrend has progressed in five waves. The five waves are now best counted as SPX: 2147-2125-2214-2187-2278. The recent short term action in the SPX has not occurred during any uptrend in this bull market, only during pullbacks/corrections. As a result, the correct count appears to be the one we have been posting on the daily chart below.


This count suggests Minute wave i ended at SPX 2278. Then an A wave declined to SPX 2234, a B wave rallied to SPX 2282, and currently a C wave down is underway. It does not, however, conclude that the B wave ended at SPX 2282. It could go higher before the C wave down. In either case the C wave should end the pullback/correction in the coming weeks. Medium term support is at the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots.


The preferred count, Minute wave i ending at SPX 2278, provides us with some definitive parameters going forward. Regardless of where the B wave ends the most common low for Minute wave ii would be to retest SPX 2234, to form an irregular flat. The next probable support levels, if the B wave ended at SPX 2282, would be the following.


If the C wave is 1.618 times the A wave, then the 2212 pivot would provide support. If the C is twice the A wave, then SPX 2194 would provide support. If the C is 2.618 times the A wave, then the 2177 pivot would provide support. Short term support is currently at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. Best to your trading next week!


Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.5%.

European markets were also mostly lower for a 1.2% loss.

The DJ World index lost 0.3%, and the NYSE index lost 0.3%.


Bonds appear to be in an uptrend but lost 0.2%.

Crude is in an uptrend and gained 1.6%.

Gold is in an uptrend too and gained 0.7%.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.


Tuesday: existing home sales. Wednesday: the FHFA housing index. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, leading indicators and new home sales. Friday: Q4 GDP (est. +2.2%), durable goods and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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192 Responses to weekend update

  1. Ajay Singhi says:

    Two things became clear today: 1) SPX won’t cross 2300 in this rally and 2) 2232 should break before 2287(should happen in the next 2 days).


  2. captbara says:

    Market is doing a repeat of the painful Jul – Aug grind. Yuck.


  3. kvilia says:

    Some astonishing calls on gold, yet we are grinding up. Stochastics cross over 80 down from being overbought on daily and immediately turned up – a sign for continuing uptrend. Hold unless 1206 is broken.


  4. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Interesting that GDX has a slight -div on the daily 5RSI but the 14RSI is fine.Higher high also.Goldfingers crossed on further upside.With bonds seemingly short term bullish….the next month in PM, hopefully stays bullish.Good luck all.


  5. I have been a long time reader and follower of this blog (nearly a decade). I was always appreciative and respectful of the time and effort Mr Caldaro put into his workproduct………..and never asked for anything in return but some basic human respect. His graciousness was most exemplified by the fact the effort herein was never monetized for personal gain or otherwise.

    Because of this history, I was surprised and painfully disappointed of the type of postings made on this site since the US election, but more so the commentary from this past weekend. It bothered me to read that “for the good of the country the public and MSM should follow”…….who exactly……an acknowledged sexual predator ?………..a person who has never paid his fair share in taxes but has greatly benefit ted personally from all the bountiful things America has to offer…………a person who hasn’t shown anything of what he has done for the common good other than profits mightily for his own pocket book………….and if any one should dare question it, stand up to it or voice their objection to it they get labeled a sore loser? Rubbish, I say.

    I am nearing the end of my eighth decade. The first half of my life I was raised and lived in a Eastern European country more backward than words can describe and that a typical American can possibly understand. I learned early on what it meant “to lets just follow for the common good.” How basic human decencies were trampled on because it was easier to look the other way…………because it was easier to accept/tolerate/enable the false narratives pushed for personal gain that was in total contradiction of the public good. And, I can say this because I lost most of my family , and have endured all the suffering attendant to that loss due to the fact………it was easier to just go along.

    My life was saved and turned around by a simple twist of fate (luck) and I was able to spend some thirty productive and fulfilled years because i ended up in the USA. I got to see lives flourish because bright people questioned everything………their teachers……..their schools, their community leaders, their superiors at work..their doctors. I could go on. The questioning is from where personal growth enlightenment comes from. I witnessed it first hand………the before/and the after. And this forum now promotes that the American citizenry and specifically this blog’s readership should just fall in line so some can line their pockets a little more ? Three million people marched not because they are sore losers, but most likely because they are fearful of what they are hearing words over and over for the past year that are more concealing than they have ever been revealing.. I read George Orwell’s 1984 in the first year or 2 of my landing in the States. Some people read that work as a warning. It seems this new administration thought it was their guide.

    God bless.



    • tony caldaro says:

      Will reply to you in kind, since your concerns are quite extensive.
      However, the political discussion ended at midnight, last night, and will delete any adds on to this thread.


    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Gloria,
      Thank you for your decade-long readership. It is unfortunate the first half of your life put you through those experiences. There must have been a really good reason.
      As I near the end if my 7th decade, all of which has been in this country, I understand we all go through our own travails if we are to learn and grow, and share those experiences with others.
      In another time and place I too would have been concerned about the direction of this country under the new administration. I was concerned under the G W Bush administration, and the Obama administration up to a specific point in time. Not because of them individually. But because they were at the helm of the country in a very critical period: a secular Crisis cycle. But that, in my opinion, has passed.
      While some of the character traits of the new POTUS leave a lot to be desired. The voters of this country chose him from the 25 or so that entered this election cycle. He won despite his character flaws, the media, democratic party opposition, and even strong opposition from his own party. That in itself was quite astounding.
      Since we are exiting a Crisis cycle and entering a Growth cycle, the elective has chosen the one that best fits the new cycle. It was a very contentious campaign. One for the Ages. And no matter which one had won, DJT or HRC, there would be many, many that would be dissatisfied. Let’s give the winner a chance and see where it leads.
      all the best,


    • dan pulford says:

      Our new responsibility is accountability. Accept the now, it is in front of you.


  6. phil1247 says:


    please delete my posts from 10: 22 am today and 10: 29



  7. learnedmylesson25 says:

    TLT hadn’t been above the 20d sma since October.Went above the last couple weeks,then tagged the upper BB.Headed back down to the 20d and bounced strongly.Gold loves it,dollar does not.Question:Is this a one day wonder or a month long trend?Promising.


    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Massive gap on daily TLT from election day at 130.If Trump rally retraces,that looks like a PO.Gold would follow,stocks correct–when this happens.Good luck all.


    • phil1247 says:


      short of a lifetime learned

      next short entry is up near 125…..

      bear rallies are sharp with quick profits to be made


    • Linda West says:

      Noticed few of Dow Stocks seem to be bear market, Been day trading CLVS with lots of success! Stock moves like the wind. Earnings numbers coming out soon, short ratio of 3.64 first 45 to 75 minutes seems to pop then fade lower. Anyways, mostly, shorting most of my day trades and having success.


  8. blackjak100 says:

    Great long entry here with little risk and great reward…stop at 2258 target 2290ish. See triangle count I posted courtesy of NK.


  9. H D says:

    Nice pivot Tony! all month


  10. Dex T says:

    Trump to sign orders to renegotiate NAFTA, pull out of TPP: NBC

    “U.S. President Donald Trump could sign an executive order as early as Monday intended to renegotiate the free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, NBC News reported, citing an unidentified White House official. In addition to wanting to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the new Republican president also intends to sign an executive order pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP”



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