Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW +95

Last night FED chair Yellen gave a speech on the economy and FED policy: Overnight Asian markets lost 0.5%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2273. The SPX had closed at 2264 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2277, and then started to pullback. At 1pm the SPX hit 2265, bounced to 2271 by 1:30, then hit 2265 again at 2:30. After that the market worked its way higher to close at SPX 2271.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported at 62.0% v 61.9%. And we have a new POTUS.

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since January 4th. But unlike that day the market did not hold its early gains, and pulled back minutes after the opening. The high of the day was the upper range of the OEW 2270 pivot (2277). A fairly quiet week as the entire range for the 4 days was SPX 2258-2277, with the entire range occurring between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. The DOW slightly outperformed the other major indices today, but continues to lag. Another quiet week in the market, just like last week. Short term support rises to the 2070 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought again early, then declined to neutral. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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29 Responses to Friday update

  1. Ajay Singhi says:

    sell spx at 2304, tgt 1990. Timeframe march end,.


  2. bfquant says:

    TC. I should have looked at your chart batch. Regarding the NAZ again. Your prior comment that “it looks like 5 waves up” appears to be in relation to the February low. This suggests Major 1 of Primary 3 is nearly done. But wouldn’t this put it well out of sync with the S&P/Dow?


  3. fionamargaret says:

    My oldest dog asks for bathroom and loving every couple of hours during the night….is that how it ends for all of us…..
    It is however when I look through old music, and choose one to play to soothe her back to sleep.
    I hope you all enjoy this too…what a great storyteller…

    Thanks Tony, and everyone. xx


    • zvyezda says:

      As long as you are there to love her, Fiona, that is all she wants or needs. Peace to both of you in Christ.


      • fionamargaret says:

        Thanks Z……she is just old, but precious.
        I did like the Tom Waits song, so thought I would share, and leave the charts until tomorrow.
        It also struck me how everything we think we need is whittled down to a bathroom and care when we are old….stuff that dogs teach us….x


    • Tom Fischer says:

      I’m on my third Irish Setter, Mr. Beau
      The first two are buried in the side yard.
      It is so hard to lose them.
      We are switching over to cats, all ragdolls.
      They are easier to “overlap”.
      The oldest is 15, we have a middle boy, and a new kitten.
      We can “keep the ball in motion” easier that way.
      This is the kitten, Fiona Grace. Fiona is my wife’s joy.

      Good Luck to you FionaMargaret


  4. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have nice W/E.


  5. moreravioli says:

    Tony, is your tentative green labeling for a and b on SPX 60-min intended to be part of minute ii? Thanks.


  6. Thanks Tony and if you would simply shoot me; this market is frustrating though a traders delight. I now see a wedge formation with the rate of ascent around 8% and the rate of descent at around 6%. In these situations its not uncommon for the more aggressive slope to fail, suggesting further weakness and, perhaps, a correction. This view is supported by the S&P summation index, along with a breadth oscillator, which have been falling since the first tag of 2277 in mid December. The McClellan oscillator for the S&P is pretty close to 0. Question: Were this an A,B,C correction with A being 2277 to 2234; B being 2234 to 2282 and with C underway but having started at 2282. Can the termination of B and the beginning of C be higher than A?


  7. alexhartley1 says:

    To me it looks like a final small c wave up of a larger b in progress. If a (2259-2277) = c then 2283 (2265+ 18) target to be reached on Monday. Then we drop into the 27-30th.


    • alexhartley1 says:

      This would complete a ‘b wave’ of wave 4 on the 23rd with a ‘c wave’ of wave 4 to come into the 27-30th. Then we have a final 5th wave up into Feb17 before a larger drop.


  8. Thanks TC. Have a nice weekend.


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