weekend update

REVIEW

This holiday shortened week started at SPX 2275. The market opened lower on Tuesday, remained in the same lower range on Wednesday, dropped to SPX 2258 on Thursday, then rallied to 2277 on Friday, and ended the week at 2271. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.25% and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. On the economic front reports came in quite positive. On the downtick: the NY FED and the NAHB. On the uptick: the CPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports include: Q4 GDP, leading indicators and durable goods orders. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

There is a new sheriff in town. Donald J Trump was sworn in Friday as the 45th President of the USA. The Trump rally, as this uptrend has been called, started just a couple of days before the election and continued into mid-December. Since then the market has made little progress either up or down during the past 5 weeks. Nevertheless the long term count remains unchanged.

spxweekly

We continue to label the May 2015 high as Primary I, and the February 2016 low as Primary II. A Primary III bull market has been underway since that February low at SPX 1810. Currently there are three sets of waves up from that low: Intermediate waves i and ii, Minor waves 1 and 2, and probably Minute waves i and ii. With Minute wave ii currently underway. When it concludes Minute iii should kick in to the upside and take the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?

From the early November low at SPX 2084 the uptrend has progressed in five waves. The five waves are now best counted as SPX: 2147-2125-2214-2187-2278. The recent short term action in the SPX has not occurred during any uptrend in this bull market, only during pullbacks/corrections. As a result, the correct count appears to be the one we have been posting on the daily chart below.

spxdaily

This count suggests Minute wave i ended at SPX 2278. Then an A wave declined to SPX 2234, a B wave rallied to SPX 2282, and currently a C wave down is underway. It does not, however, conclude that the B wave ended at SPX 2282. It could go higher before the C wave down. In either case the C wave should end the pullback/correction in the coming weeks. Medium term support is at the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The preferred count, Minute wave i ending at SPX 2278, provides us with some definitive parameters going forward. Regardless of where the B wave ends the most common low for Minute wave ii would be to retest SPX 2234, to form an irregular flat. The next probable support levels, if the B wave ended at SPX 2282, would be the following.

spxhourly

If the C wave is 1.618 times the A wave, then the 2212 pivot would provide support. If the C is twice the A wave, then SPX 2194 would provide support. If the C is 2.618 times the A wave, then the 2177 pivot would provide support. Short term support is currently at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. Best to your trading next week!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.5%.

European markets were also mostly lower for a 1.2% loss.

The DJ World index lost 0.3%, and the NYSE index lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be in an uptrend but lost 0.2%.

Crude is in an uptrend and gained 1.6%.

Gold is in an uptrend too and gained 0.7%.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: existing home sales. Wednesday: the FHFA housing index. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, leading indicators and new home sales. Friday: Q4 GDP (est. +2.2%), durable goods and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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192 Responses to weekend update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    Below 2258.41 invalidates the triangle count I posted sat. look for downward momentum to increase if it’s taken out.

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  2. wildmarkets says:

    “NEWBIE says:
    January 22, 2017 at 9:08 pm

    Ariez, I voted for Trump because he was the lesser of the two evils.”

    Bears wanted market to fall on Trump’s win but market rallied lol

    Like

  3. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

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  4. bfquant says:

    TC. In a recent post you suggested a correction of up to 5% may be in the cards. Does your statement that ii at 2234 being a common low for the irregular flat suggest that you now believe the correction will be shallower?

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  5. opader says:

    Thank you Tony … My thoughts: http://balancetrading.org

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  6. Jack Sparrow says:

    Our dilemma of lately is that we are only capable of thinking along party lines and then either try to rationalize or argue accordingly without looking at the merit of the situation. Was Obama intellectually great person the answer is yes, was he is too passive especially with our foreign policies which allowed Russia and china to grow stronger and ISIS to thrive in Iraq- the answer is yes., is he a decent human being and gentleman- the answer is yes. did he take over the country when it was in bad shape financially the answer is yes.
    did trump demean everyone around him during election- the answer is yes, does he lie – the answer is yes, will he be strong towards china- the answer is yes (dont know about russia), did he make good choice in selecting the secretary of defense and home land secretary (the two generals)- the answer is yes…. did he and his staff screwed up in last two days in every aspect – the answer is yes.

    what is so difficult about calling the way it is

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    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Jack,that’s the way YOU see it.But that’s fine.I’ll just take one of your points and say Obama is not intellectually “great”.In fact,a lot of his decisions were not based on intellect,but race and politics.He did not back up police against criminals.(which gave a nod for the rioting we saw the last year).He did in fact let out many drug dealers early.Those guys are murderers by association in my book.He did back BLM.His insistence on having immigrants and refugees pour in is strictly sowing seeds for future elections.It’s all very cynical and the topper is–he and Clinton are Soros cronies.THAT’S not a compliment.
      Meanwhile,tonight gold trying to break 1218.Dollar sliding nicely.Maybe the chart I showed a couple weeks back(drop to 97-98 before a rebound)comes to fruition.That would equate with 1250 gold and maybe 25ish GDX.See you all tomorrow.

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  7. Page says:

    The long awaited correction begins Monday, will be dangerous to catch the falling knife.

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  8. tony caldaro says:

    The Inaugural weekend political/climate change free-for-all is over at midnight EST.
    thank you for your cooperation

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