SHORT TERM: market declines after higher open, DOW -72
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher, but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 234K v 247K, housing starts were reported higher: 1226K v 1090K, building permits was reported higher: 1210K v 1201K, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 23.6 v 21.5. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2272 close and immediately began to pullback. By 11am the SPX hit 2265, bounced to 2270 by 11:30, then dropped even lower. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 2258, then bounced to close at 2264.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds dropped 21 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops back to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance again at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Today the Q4 GDP estimate was reported unchanged at 2.8%. Tonight there is a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8pm, and tomorrow is options expiration. Also on Friday, Donald J. Trump is sworn in as the new POTUS.
The market opened slightly higher today and then declined to within 4 points of last week’s SPX 2254 low. While the SPX/NDX/NAZ have remained in a tight range, or made new uptrend highs, today the DOW traded at its lowest level since the first week of December. The uptrend leader in November/December continues to lag. The SPX, after making a new all-time high at 2282 in the first week of January has displayed nothing but choppy sideways activity since. The recent SPX action looks similar to the choppy action before the declines in September/October. Short term support is at SPX 2254 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from overbought early to quite oversold at the low. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway?
LONG TERM: uptrend