SHORT TERM: gap up opening post op-ex, DOW +77
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2152 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2141 on Friday. In the opening half-hour the SPX hit 2155, and then started to pullback. By 12:30 the SPX had reached 2147, and then started to drift higher. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2152, then closed at 2151.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.10%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dropped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and FHFA housing at 9am, then consumer confidence at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open for the first time since last Tuesday. In fact, looking back from the SPX 2115 low, all three rallies (2149, 2148 and 2155) have included a gap up opening. At the open the market cleared the first two rally highs at 2149 and 2148. Then after a pullback to SPX 2147 this rally closed above both of the previous rally highs. Is the uptrend finally getting legs? We now have 5 small waves off the SPX 2115 low: 2149-2124-2148-2130-2155. Thinking this market needs to make new highs before anyone gets that excited. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the low-2150’s and mid-2160’s. Short term momentum hit quite overbought after Friday’s positive divergence, then ended at ovebought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
a contracting diagonal formation is in process from the low of 2115. it should end around 2160 in next couple of days. (that will either be 1 of 5 for bullish count or a of upward correction for bearish count. then a move down to 2130 ish followed up by a sharp move( probably related with election) for 3 or C
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so for contacting diagonal we are in the 4th wave (b in works) which should end around 2138ish before turning upto 2160 for the 5h
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Thanks. Will look into it. Mkt should be up tomorrow.
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Btw…Lockhart speaketh at 1:20pm.Later all.
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Some of that bad seasonality for Nasdaq kicking in today?If true…rest of the week is bearish.
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“Bad Seasonality”? Look at CBs post below – 9:30pm
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I posted this yesterday:
Tom Bowley of Stockcharts.
“This week is also the worst historically for the NASDAQ. Check out the annualized returns by day from today through Thursday (October 27th):
October 24th (today): -62.22%
October 25th (tomorrow): -75.45%
October 26th (Wednesday): -75.60%
October 27th (Thursday): -94.81%
The good news historically is that once October 27th is behind us, all of our major indices turn very bullish as we wrap up October and head into November.”
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(2nd term) Election year…
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If you are trading oil, I suspect it is going to 45ish…maybe check the technicals on that..Bloomberg last week “suggested” it would be good for oil to correct to there, so I have kept that in the back of my mind. Phil’s 14 is rubbish…the oil chart is very bullish…just wait and see. Phil would have had TLT in the morgue….just sleeping…let it come back further for a nice runway to160…but not just yet..
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Remember I think 2550 is doable, with 70+ for oil, 160 for GLD, and 160 for TLT….we shall see….x
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2159 next? Then roll over or break out?
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https://www.illinoispolicy.org/u-haul-rental-rates-reflect-illinois-out-migration-crisis/
Here’s a wave 3
Go Cubs !
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They don’t do “The Wave” at Wrigley,do they?Only Detroit…lol.
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The looks of Yellen and Draghi when rates run wild…
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http://imgur.com/4gDYoCm
..wrong clip/paste by mistake, the other one was sociopolitical
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No, it is just 2 of the Cubs who cannot quite believe their luck…”.and now to find Lee…he was sleeping on the blanket beside us last time we looked”….
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haha
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2 perceptions that are universally equally right. Sounds like one of the bottomless small-caps; never before more fundamentally sound and in endless disdain. World is a lure 🙂
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/DX
took profits on UUP
most aggressive extension long has failed
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bought gld
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/CL
short traded this am
target 48.99
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downside acceleration thru 48.72
would validate 14 dollar target
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TBT looks good in the corrective phase, isnt loosing much….
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phil1247 says:
October 23, 2016 at 9:38 am
http://tos.mx/t0TImn?image
DOLLAR
too lazy to post new chart but
98.98 target hit !
now pullback or thru target and create a new extension long
raising stops on UUP at open….may add more if new ext
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99.30 next extension long target
weekly target 104.5
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104.5 would be sweet. I have Tony to thank for this long term trade so thanks T. Keep those special reports coming!
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alex
i had tonys call in mind …. before i went long
but by my method i could not buy until 96.5
see chart above
same with gold……i still cant buy …but its getting closer
i dont care about buying at the low price……..
i want to buy ……………….at the right price 🙂
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Totally fair enough. Good luck with it all Phil. Being long the USD in different ways is my largest trade.
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And thanks for the chart. I can clearly see what you’re saying.
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one last note…alex
if you look at the vertical lines on the chart
these marked the stongest part of the up cycle
called weeks in advance for oct 7 to 21
the larger cycle peaks in feb 2017
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the weekly target at 104.5 would be the expected high in Feb17?
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