SHORT TERM: pullback Tuesday, DOW -54
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher, then lower, overnight. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: 5.1% v 5.0%, and the FHFA index was reported higher: 0.7% v 0.5%. The market opened 3 points lower than yesterday’s SPX 2151 close, dipped to 2146, then rallied to unchanged by 10am. At 10am consumer confidence was reported lower: 98.6 v 104.1. By 12:30 the market had pulled back to SPX 2142, and tried to rally. The rally fizzled out at SPX 2147 by 2pm, then the market drifted into a 2143 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold gained $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2216 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: new home sales at 10am.
The market opened lower today, bounced to unchanged, and then headed even lower. We now observe another series of 5 overlapping waves, this time from the SPX 2115 low: 2149-2124-2148-2130-2155-2142. Still awaiting that elusive third wave. Quite an odd market with the NDX/NAZ near/at all time highs, and the SPX/DOW remaining in a 4% range below their all time highs. Growth is being bought, but the cyclicals are not. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the mid-2140’s and the low-2150’s. Short term momentum declined to oversold from yesterday’s quite overbought condition. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Close looking bearish here, tagging the VPOC ES2135 and stalling. 15pt rally from Crude looks like fast short squeeze before a bigger drop. Rising channel also broke down today at open.
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When WTI goes down $1 people start predicting oil going down to $35-$40 or some go as far as $14 AND when WTI goes up $1 people start predicting oil going up $65-$70 😀
I say Oil is going towards $60.
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I’m sure the OPEC members would like to see the price firm up and are trying to talk the price up, but Iraq and Iran are dragging their feet about freezing out put, which is what is putting the downward pressure on price. I spent the last two weeks in the UAE and saw first hand the effects of lower prices. According to the censored news, they are cutting back on spending in all areas and some belt tightening going on. I expect to hear a lot of talk to try to drive up the price. Maybe it will work, but no one wants to cut production because they need the money, especially Russia, which is already in recession due to sanctions. It seems maybe the Saudis are doing okay compared to the rest and could stand a production freeze better than others.
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