weekend update

REVIEW

Another choppy week. The week started at SPX 2133. After a decline on Monday to SPX 2124 the market rallied to 2148 by Wednesday. Then monthly options expiration kicked in and the market declined to SPX 2130 by Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Economic reports were mixed. On the downtick: the NY FED, capacity utilization, the NAHB, the WLEI, housing starts, plus weekly jobless claims were higher. On the uptick: industrial production, the CPI, building permits, existing home sales, the Philly FED, and the Q3 GDP est. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, durable goods orders and more housing reports. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The long term trend remains unchanged: up from February 2016. We continue to label the March 2009 low as the end of a Super cycle bear market. The five waves up to May 2015 ended a Primary wave I bull market. Then the three wave decline into February 2016 ended a Primary wave II bear market. A Primary III bull market, of the five primary wave Cycle [1], began at that time.

spxweekly

For a number of years we had been tracking, on a weekly basis, the WLEI. This is a leading economic indicator offered by the ECRI. Earlier this year we put it aside and started following the Atlanta FED Quarterly GDP estimates. With estimates again coming in around 2% GDP growth we decided to revisit the WLEI. Four weeks ago this leading index recorded its highest projected growth level in nearly 6 1/2 years, May 2010. Growth then was in the 3% to 4% zone. This indicator suggests a pickup in economic growth will likely occur in 2017. We will offer the weekly reading again on the SPX weekly chart.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

In last week’s update we noted the SPX 2115 low on October 13th fit the potential completion of the complex flat correction we had been tracking for about two months. There were positive divergences on several timeframes, and the market rallied strongly off that low on Friday the 14th to SPX 2149. Then after a pullback to SPX 2124 this Monday the advance stalled, as the two rallies off that low were both weaker than the initial surge.

spxdaily

While the cyclical SPX/DOW/NYSE have not been able to get much going to the upside in two months. The growth sector NDX/NAZ/SOX have been in confirmed uptrends for some time. The last two times, small sample, the SPX/NDX were out of sync for a similar period the resolution was to the upside. We continue to favor that scenario. Medium term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots.

SHORT TERM

We have been tracking the downtrend in the SPX as a double three, taking the form of a complex flat. The first decline from the SPX 2194 high was: 2157-2188-2119. Then after a counter rally to SPX 2180, the market declined: 2142-2175-2115. We had observed that the first decline was: 37-31-69 points, and the second: 38-33-60 points. Notice how similar the smaller wave movements were.

spxhourly

From the SPX 2115 low the market rallied to 2149. Then after a pullback to SPX 2124, the market rallied to 2148. On Friday the SPX hit a low of 2130, and then rallied. We now have four waves off the SPX 2115 low: 2149-2124-2148-2130. What is needed now is a breakout above the SPX 2149 level to keep the potential uptrend scenario intact. A breakdown below the SPX 2124 level would suggest the downtrend is still unfolding. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the mid-2140’s and low-2150’s. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 0.8%.

European markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.5%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.2%.

The DJ World index gained 0.7%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.4%.

Crude continues to uptrend and gained 0.2%.

Gold is downtrending but gained 1.0%.

The USD is uptrending and gained 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: Case-Shiller, FHFA housing and consumer confidence. Wednesday: new home sales. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales. Friday: Q3 GDP and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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136 Responses to weekend update

  1. Flash Manufacturing report surged in October. Looks like Tony had the forward looking economic indicator correct. Hard to imagine the dollar not reaching 100 soon. Goldman Sacks finally acknowledged that earnings expectations will be reduced for this year and next. Not painting a bad picture but more muted than the big surge that the street expected. how this plays out in the general market going forward is anyone’s guess. Any talk of recession or more QE is barking up the wrong tree.

    Now looks like we might not get a decent correction to make money off of. Still possible but chart and seasonal time decay suggests the window is closing. SPX of 2179 now seems like a good candidate and major resistance. A whole lot of newsletter has been warning of an imminent drop here. If by November 5th it fails to materialize watch out for a big rally after that.

    Signs of everything coming together such as consumer spending, overseas acceleration, manufacturing, energy, and even business spending (which should be the last to achieve). It could very well force the hand of the FED. The signs are very strong for a rate hike in December and if the world economy does start to pick up together rate hikes in 2017 will be the ONLY talk of the town. how many and how fast. The momentum buildup is there. we shall see if it translates to sustained momentum gains in 2017. I expected this and have always maintained the stock market fall significantly (because) of this set up. Squeeze on earnings even as spending picks up along with inflation and dollar strength. I stated a full year ago that my MACRO long term view was a steep correction in market as economy picks up. We are setting up for such an event. Bulls should be careful and not relate economic strength with stock market strength.

  2. Ajay Singhi says:

    Buy SPX at 2083, tgt 2198.

  3. phil1247 says:

    DOW 40, 000

    if the nikkei could go to 40000 in 1989
    with capital concentration
    from money fleeing usa during 1987 stock and dollar crash

    why not DOW 40000 with money fleeing europe with euro crash?

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/capital-flows/

  4. First,some pre Monday analysis (which doesn’t look too smart right now)from Tom Bowley of Stockcharts.
    “This week is also the worst historically for the NASDAQ. Check out the annualized returns by day from today through Thursday (October 27th):
    October 24th (today): -62.22%
    October 25th (tomorrow): -75.45%
    October 26th (Wednesday): -75.60%
    October 27th (Thursday): -94.81%
    The good news historically is that once October 27th is behind us, all of our major indices turn very bullish as we wrap up October and head into November.”Now a chart:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p08871080828&a=483377505&r=1477312832111

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failed @ WR2 ~ Testing WR1 @ 214.54 breakout level
    Holds WR1 then MPP @ 215.94 & WR3 @ 216.08
    Fails WR1 then WPP @ 213.60
    GL All

  6. phil1247 says:

    /cl

    continues in extension shorts
    thru target now
    if new extension shorts manifest …
    ..this would confirm downside acceleration
    and validation of 14 dollar target

  7. phil1247 says:

    /esz6

    three hits and bounces from 2142.75

    why?…………testing ext long .618 level………
    multiple tests suggest it may not hold

  8. captbara says:

    NQ just shy of new highs by 3 pts. MACD daily crossover going +ve

  9. micky says:

    I see 2160 must be taken out or its just another abc up from 2114, actually abc x abc

  10. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    so far it looks like you have done it once again!

    /ES is now in extension longs …,,,,your third wave ……..

    bullish above 2142.5………..
    ..target ….. to da moon alice .

    kudos!

  11. Here’s Gartman from this morning–capitulating to the CBs:
    “We have to admit that the trend is up; that the monetary authorities are continuing to supply reserves to the systems around the world and that that supply is making its way into equity prices rather than into plant, equipment and labor. We are seeing, in broad global terms, what we have previously referred to as the Zimbabwe-isation of the global capital markets and we’ve no choice but to accept that fact and to recognize that that trumps all other “fundamental” and/or technical concerns.”
    This late word…Fed clown Bullard (a pro rate increase guy,says Fox biz),came out today and said–NO RATE INCREASE!!!Lol.In fact he wants more bonds purchased.I tell you all,they want the DXY around 95.50.Later.

  12. skmcobra says:

    It’s been a while since I was on this site. When did the Primary wave count change and why? It’s quite a change to go from calling an end to super cycle 1 and now placing us only in the P3 wave. Not being critical just trying to understand your position Tony. It sure looks to me like the Aug-Feb correction was the A-C of P4 and now we are in P5. I we are in P5 and not P3, it could be fatal for the followers who aren’t prepared for the soon to come Primary A-C correction probably next year some time.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The change occurred late-spring into early-summer.
      SC 1 ended in 2007. Was calling for a C [2] bear market.
      Obviously C [1] decided to extend.
      Most are not positioned as I am.
      Many looking for P5 to end soon, or some other topping event.
      Have had very few agree with me, which is fine.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        but you went from irregular B to PV to PIII and the PV stance was very brief. I can understand moving from irregular B but I have never understand how there isn’t a highly probable count for S&P being in PV. Without disclosing your proprietary model what makes you so set on this not being PV? What specifically is giving you hesitation to making that the main? That’s what I don’t understand. There are so many fundamental and technical things that say no way this is PIII.

        • phil1247 says:

          johnny

          how bout dis???

          euro and europe collapse into economic abyss
          scared money comes to usa sending dow to 30000.
          in massive short squeeze

          bonds have massive inflow putting the final top in usa bonds

          dollar already showing influx of capital by rising
          ..perhaps this is the beginning of capital flow to usa?

          …….but as i said…………

          i dont do fundamentals 😉

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            that’s tunnel vision. Europe crashing or China crashing is not going to elevate our markets. The interconnectedness will hurt us not to mention a stronger dollar. I will say it again and again. Market and many investors are so insanely conditioned that the market will never go down. That is not bearish…………that is bullishly complacent even the rationalization that the market is so bearish is evidence itself of how delusional people are. The belief is keeping this from dropping hard right here right now. I hear every day of how earnings are so great. How is that possible? Even if they surpass all expectations and with all the buybacks earnings they MAY be 1% this quarter. LOL How far this goes and for how long Ill leave to smarter guys but this market is delusional and will end badly. Its that simple.

            • phil1247 says:

              EARNINGS ….dont matter

              confidence matters…….
              ….scared money goes where it is perceived to be safe

              • skmcobra says:

                I agree with you here on this phil1247. Elliott Wave is based on market sentiment. As long as the majority believes there’s more upside, we will continue to see upside, even if it’s a slow grind up. However we are only one really big event away from a 180 degree turn into a very bearish structure. On a side note, Avi also feels we are in P3, but he has us in Minor (2) of Major V of P3. He’s looking to 2300s into the first half of next year.

            • NEWBIE says:

              Be glad you are just figuring this out and not years ago like I did.

        • tony caldaro says:

          quantitatively we had always counted 5 up from 2009 to 2015 in the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ
          whether that five waves ended in May, October, December didn’t matter

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Low volume grind up. Been the story of the year.

  14. captbara says:

    7 weeks up for minor 1, 8.5 for minor 2. I think that’s good enough time wise. Any longer and this is not likely a minor 1 anymore.

  15. blackjak100 says:

    If the SPY 21 dma ($214.70ish) continues to support the market before the open and the gap up holds, I have to believe 2180 is next. However, I do believe it will fail there as a bigger washout is needed before a more sustained rally. It would be shocking to see a new ATH before the election as well. No changes to NK count either.

  16. mtu MTU says:

    [735am] ES update-
    Interesting formation. See chart.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/

  17. vivelaamo says:

    posted back in August with the predicted trend line and breakout point being met at the time of election for the next big move up. Still looks on.

  18. stmro says:

    If the gap up holds, we are shaping up for the first ever recorded failure of the Gartman indicator. More importantly if it gaps over resistance and doesnt immediately reverse, the next test will be 2180.

  19. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony! always great to read your weekend updates. Haven’t missed one since 2010 when I first found your blog.

    Sentiment is sour and fund managers sit on record amounts of cash… that’s bullish imho:

    https://investingintelligent.com/2016/10/23/sour-investors-sitting-on-record-amounts-of-cash-receipe-for-a-rally/

    just my 2c

    aloha

    soul

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is #RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  21. cj32 says:

    Cr, to CBZ

  22. There is only one thing that I have concluded from this boards recent participation. We are at an important junction and we either breakout or down this coming week. Should be decisive move before close of action next Friday. Interesting that the optimistic and pessimistic view are both correct in what is viewed as a terminal wedge pattern. Perhaps a straddle is in order?

    • wanderer says:

      After every weekly update, there are the usual and predictable comments how we are at “an important junction”, “high energy”, “imminent breakout”, and “astro-cosmic crucifix”. No one ever predicts a tight trading range, and yet it’s exactly what typically happens. There is a strange propensity among the market prognosticators to attach way too much significance to the “next few days”.

      • CB says:

        Very true.. But “astro-cosmic crucifix” sounds really good ..lol
        W, people mention range-bound trading. from time to time here on the blog.. So “never” is a bit harsh, perhaps..
        Ok, so “You better work the Range… ” by Brittney Spears would be a nice musical contribution right about now. And nope, it wouldn’t be prudent to post it here =)
        Later.

      • Last time I made such an announcement was in February and at that time I was practically alone in my assumption of a big sharp rally. Right or wrong I obey my analysis based on long term past results. Love the supposed juncture for fast action. Biggest OTM bet since February. Willing to lose it all when I see an opening for such an event.

        • 7dayyss says:

          Bob Hopium, er Buddy G, I mean CampFreddie was the original on a rally in Feb. He was crucified for his “endless bullishness.” I remember the majority of the bears continually shorting at the “next resistance level.” A lot quit posting while getting chewed up, kind of like what’s going on now. Not to imply a breakout higher now, just giving due props!

          Thanks Tony, you’re due props too!!!

          • Looks like this market wans to rally and is doing so rather easily. Not much resistance seen yet. I was badly fooled and many still believe we have to drop first before we rally hard into new year. Sounded logical but the charts don’t look like it wants to comply.

        • so your position is long now. ? Throwing out your 10-28 puts? im bullish with a close over 2153

  23. THREE INDICES in Triangles – which may well break in the SAME direction
    SPY, IWM, & FTSE …

    IWM / Russell have been weaker than SPY / the S&P-500 index

    SPX …

    I could see SPX dropping below 2100 (2090) before it turns up
    If the yellow trendline near there does not hold, it could drop further and faster

  24. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/t0TImn?image

    DOLLAR

    it was a terrific 2 weeks and especially last 2 days in the dollar
    cycles pinpointed oct 7 to 21 as when a sharp 2 week rally should ensue( vertical lines)
    while there could be further rally to the 98.98 traditional long target
    the triangle formation suggesting a 4th wave
    and post triangle thrust to its target..( yellow bar)
    told me its not a time to get greedy
    especially with all the chatter and excitement about the dollar now

    i did get in late at the extension long near 96.5

    but if you can ride the extension …it is very dynamic
    and better than being chopped up in spx or oil

  25. uas2014 says:

    hello tony. I know you do not follow closely, but what do you think about ibovespa?
    what would be the target for this uptrending?
    we can see -div on weekly and daily, it may be a sign to the end of uptrending?
    thank you

  26. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Tony…..and everyone xx

    • torehund says:

      If you have nothing left to loose…you loose it, or you finally get it🙂
      That is the mystery of nature, and W-2 bottoms.

    • torehund says:

      That wave-2 between the small island and the cliff is hidden in the sea, and the cliff itself is an asymptotic 3rd wave.
      Next time I visit Puerto Malabrigo in Peru I will take the perfect sunset picture, just when the haze makes the sun look like a giant orange ball.

    • scottycj1 says:

      He’s my favorite

    • bhuggs52 says:

      Hey Fiona, have you had the chance to catch Joe Bonamassa live? He puts on a stellar show. I saw him at the Palace of Fine Arts auditorium in San Fran. He changed guitars for almost every song. Amazing, his axes and his playing. I’ve been collecting his music since. Slow Gin CD is a favorite, and Black Rock. Cheers sister. Keep it coming.

    • bhuggs52 says:

      Hey Fiona, have you had the chance to catch Joe Bonamassa live? He puts on a stellar show. I saw him at the Palace of Fine Arts auditorium in San Fran. He changed guitars for almost every song. Amazing, his axes and his playing. I’ve been collecting his music since. Slow Gin CD is a favorite, and Black Rock. Cheers sister. Keep it coming.

  27. Hi,Tony,i have been looking some company fundamentals and they don’t appear over valuetaded,also i dont think thar IR rise will make any difference till 3%,so, the problem doesn’t seem to be with US economy to show this weakness,maybe the Dollar has something to do with this,that is,the people are predicting,like you, that it will get stronger
    thanks

    • tony caldaro says:

      Businesses need to get some confidence in the future.
      Maybe a new president will allow them to forget 2008.

      • mjtplayer says:

        That’s doubtful Tony, you have 2 candidates with the highest negatives in history running. Regardless of who wins, confidence will not change, in fact one could argue that confidence could shrink further.

        Obama totally failed to bring the country together. Today, the country is more divided than it has been in decades: race, class, political affiliations, religion, etc. I don’t see how either Trump or Hillary is going to improve the current divide in the US, they could even make it worse, just like confidence.

        It’s very sad that one of these 2 “candidates” will be our next President: one belongs on reality TV, the other in jail.

        • purplember says:

          agree MJT. i just wish someone would start looking out for the middle class. the rich have benefited greatly from low rates & stock market. the poor receive more benefits than ever in history of world. Middle class gets lip service from politicians then sh** on.

        • I disagree with that, country has been divided since gore won the popular vote and bush won the electoral vote. Nothing has changed. No president can bring all together anymore. Something needs to change I’m not sure what it is, but I would like to start with term limits.
          Thanks all enjoy your weekend, see what next week brings.

        • wanderer says:

          We deserve the public officials that we elect. Both Hilary and Trump are what we are.

          • We are being SOLD what we do not want to Buy.
            The media pushes the merits of one at us, but if you look in the mouth, you will see he/she is in fact a trojan horse. The other has merits which the corporate media dare not mention.
            If you want change, which is more likely to deliver it?

          • The Republicans threw darts and one stuck. The people definitely chose Trump much to the consternation of the party itself. The Democrats pilled on the bid for Hillary and cleared the way. Both parties that went out of their way to find the worse possible two choices imaginable. It was like both parties wanted the throw the election.

            • joecthetruthteller says:

              Many politicians have a skeleton in their closet. Hillary Clinton has a cemetery, with a sign reading “Waco.” Hillary Struck the Match when children were burned alive at Waco.

      • zvyezda says:

        Trump Contract with the American Voter released today. Plan for the first 100 days.
        Healing divisions and term limits are covered.

        https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/CONTRACT_FOR_THE_VOTER.pdf

        Video presentation at Gettysburg:

      • torehund says:

        Thanks Tony.
        Shift in sentiment has been awaited for so long, and now the waves has aligned themselves in such a perfect manner. If the smaller range oscillators cooperates we will go huge, asymptotic. A-X and C awaits, common theme for this bull, and if the monthly macd just pulls the C-wave, run-up into 1929 will feel like it was nothing🙂
        Crazy and out of tune, hopefully not for too long🙂

  28. Ajney says:

    Energy dates this week on Oct. 24, 26,27. The indecision in US polling data may have resolved, but the equity market continues indecision 2016. Spotted a potential bullish flag since summer, but till it comes into action, it something to just keep a note of. Breaking of 18000/18410 still awaited. Details at https://astroanalytics.wordpress.com

  29. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • CB says:

      Nice charts, cj. Thanks for sharing!

      RE: your demand chart.. As I’m sure you know, in a fiat money system, you never run out of supply , either …You create money by debt issuance (yes huge public debt “helps”). So looking at supply alone, doesn’t explain the whole picture.
      Governments and central banks know that they can only deal with deflation by increasing money supply (and it’s not enough just to pay off the old debt; you have to actually accelerate debt creation to prevent a deflationary spiral).
      Increased gov. spending ( and a possible fiscal stimulus) will not happen until early 2017. The market , as we all know, however, is forward looking. Also the WLEI, as Tony points out , is a leading , not a lagging indicator. So let’s watch the existing trends and see when they want to change…

      • CB says:

        typo, sorry..should read: looking at DEMAND alone, doesn’t explain the whole picture..

        • cj32 says:

          Thanks,
          USD denominated WW debts need servicing in terms of monthly re-payments with interest in USDs, ongoing demand. FED,ECB,BOJ and BOChina all have FAT balance sheets and a very few chips left for further creation of liquidity.

          • phil1247 says:

            why would you say they have few chips left?

            if the feds balance sheet is 4 trillion now

            why cant it be 40 trillion ??

            its all just keystrokes…

            there is no limit

          • CB says:

            Yes, the expansion of US-denominated debt has always been important, and the IMF and the World Bank have been instrumental in that regard.. Any “limits” on dollar creation? – not so much. Our government is only too happy to spend and we all should appreciate how lucky we are to be in that position. One area where we have a huge capacity (and a strategic interest) to expand the supply of dollars is our heavy military presence around the world. Think about the growing need to contain China and Russia, for instance. Our strategic interests require financial flexibility, and we make sure that we have that flexibility.
            On a side note, we definitely shouldn’t have to worry about who is going to pay for a certain “wall”. The only question is: do we really want a wall, and how do we make sure that our own companies get paid for building it. That is something that Trump doesn’t seem to get, unfortunately…Just like he talks about various countries having to “pay” us for protecting them. Well, they certainly “pay” for it.. But they pay in other ways, that he may not quite understand…

  30. captbara says:

    AAII bulls lowest since Brexit, at 23.7%. Stocktwits SPY bull sentiment starting to look juicy again at 38%.

  31. Tony, appreciate your analysis since it proves that personal bias can be overcome by pure technical charting. I have to agree with your understanding of the situation. I had thought we would break down from the long consolidation period and while it is still possible time is running out. A breakdown has to occur next week or Tony’s scenario seems most likely. Interesting that you bring up economic indicators that suggest a big surge is coming in 2017. The street is expecting a 7 percent rise in earnings in 3 months and a 13 to 15 percent additional rise in 6 months. Since this is baked in to today’s prices the economy had better produce this sharp upward revision soon.

    I still question the ability of this market to breakout from here with the dollar approach 100. The last 2 times it hit the dollar quickly retreated. I believe it did so after a decent drop in equities. Perhaps I am fixated on the dollar but given the earnings squeeze of late I wonder how companies can manage to pump up their earnings in this environment. A long standing Bull that has doubts we can catch up to the high earnings valuation and produce a 20 plus percent rise in the next 6 months.

    My Puts will be abandoned before the close of Mondays action if the market doesn’t roll over.

  32. 2124 or 2149…can’t get more specific than that.Wonder though,what the downside would target,if 2124 broken?Thanks Mr C.
    My thinking on gold(GDX)is the same as yesterday.Hoping to fill gap to 26ish,but gold must hold the 200d(1265-$2 below where we are) and GDX ,concurrently,should not make a deep drop below 24.45.If it does,the rally off of the 3BB event would be over.Good weekend everyone.

  33. As TC knows as much as anybody, making predictions can be a very humbling exercise as the undertaking is fraught with risk, uncertainty and decent odds you will be proven wrong. At the moment, the selling buying oscillator has turned the corner which is why the market was able to rally off Friday’s lows. VIX, which is correlated with $SPX to the tune of 86%, continues to recede and has fallen from 18 to 13.4 over the past seven trading days, suggesting perceived risk is declining. However, the internals remain awful and the McClellan measures are anything but constructive. But they are at levels that would be typically bought than sold. Risk sentiment is mixed with $RUT falling in comparison to the $SPX, something I find to be in contradiction with a falling VIX. On the other hand HYG and high beta stocks are outperforming the broader index which is does align with a falling VIX. Semiconductors are mixed. Lastly my preferred measure of sentiment, the NAAIM exposure in index is clearly pointing down while the $SPX wobbles about, a divergence that must be resolved. With this conflicting backdrop, the best we can hope for is range bound trading until a consensus is formed around confidence to go higher; $RUT must improve. We might see a spike lower before the consensus is formed to push things higher, supported by or constrained by earnings, Fed policy and exogenous shocks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/H6xPS5mV/

  34. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    re WLEI

    lashman acuthan has ignored this for months and continues to insist that it is not

    “pervasive persistant or pronounced enough ”
    i cant find the article where he specifically shows the rising wlei chart but

    he continues to call for continued economic slowdown
    based on his entire array of indicators
    and that no recession this year but next year is very possible

    https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-fed-hold-no-surprise

    • tony caldaro says:

      Amazing
      He was looking for a recession a few years ago and still is.
      Why does he publish indicators he doesn’t even follow

      • CB says:

        Thanks for your thoughts as always, Tony. Much appreciated.
        With regard to the ongoing USD appreciation (and it’s effect on corporate earnings, U.S. exports, GDP etc. ), one important factor is worth mentioning, namely that rising interest rates increase the government’s (already substantial) borrowing costs. So while the USD has again appreciated quite a bit due to the Fed’s hawkish tone recently, the actual rate hike in Dec. will increase government spending (substantially). Congress will have to raise the debt ceiling again (to service the rising debt & to fund a possible fiscal stimulus next year). Translation: more USD supply. That will tend to weaken the USD and strengthen our corporate activity, so I tend to agree with Tony’s assessment that we’ll get a pickup in economic growth in 2017.
        Obviously Japan will increase its fiscal stimulus and Europe will continue to ease as well, so we’ll have to look at the FX landscape again next year.
        So, let there be no doubt, all the governments in the world still seem to like spending (like there is no tomorrow)😉
        OK, let me rephrase that: because of deflationary forces, they know that they have to keep accelerating their spending to ensure that there’s a tomorrow.🙂 Enjoy the weekend everyone!

    • tommyboys says:

      Here he points out that there really is no such thing as “early, mid or late stage expansions” (ECRI)…

      http://m.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-early-and-late-cycle-verdicts-are-baseless?back_url=home/index

  35. 123 abc says:




    Gaming the market with Nintendo

    PlayStation3 from Sony, and Xbox360 from Microsoft launched in 2005. A year later, the Wii from Nintendo was released. This period from 2005 up until the beginning of the Great Recession in late 2007 saw Nintendo’s stock price soar 500%, and the Dow Jones gained 40%, within 2.5 years.

    During the course of the Great Recession, and despite launching the Wii U in 2012, Nintendo’s stock price declined back to its 2004 levels. Arguably, the Wii U is perceived as an incremental update and not a next generational platform.

    Following the launch of PlayStation4 from Sony, and XboxONE from Microsoft in 2013; Nintendo announces a joint venture with DeNA in 2015 to develop a new console codenamed as NX. In that year, Nintendo’s stock price soars 100%.

    In 2016, Nintendo releases Pokemon GO, announces Mario on the iPhone, and announces the Switch (codenamed NX) console launching in 2017; Nintendo’s stock price soars 100% year-to-date.

    It appears the launch of a generational console from Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo marks a low in Nintendo’s stock price. Nintendo’s stock price begins to soar once it announces its next generational platform only after Sony and Microsoft.

  36. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! I think the resolution will be to the upside as well. however, I don’t think 2115 is the low and 2100ish must hold. Weekly moving averages are still in full bore bullish position so it’s hard to be bearish LT yet. The biggest clue could be the futes not making a new low. It made an acceptable truncation, but a much stronger rally should have ensued as truncations are signs of strength. The bottom could occur with a new low below 2115 and a new low below 2107 in the futes.

  37. prakashbkc says:

    GM Tony sir,

    Sir, why u have not taken +ve divergence in Daily RSI chart of SPX between 2114 & 2119 level?

  38. stormchaser80llc says:

    The market is very quiet right now, which is concerning. My proprietary Volatility Model, which is not related to $VIX in any way (measures the market using various statistical schemes based on data from 1990-2016) is indicating that the market is only this quiet less than 1.69% of the time (114 of 6751 trading days). Tops are quiet, not bottoms.

    Most notable for the Bulls is the potential positive divergence between the 10/13 low and 9/12 low. This is seen in our proprietary Technicals Model, SPX McClellan Oscillator, and several of the Percent Above Moving Averages we follow. However in all-hours trading the 10/13 low was not lower than the 9/12 one which would negate these divergences.

    I remain short the market because of the following. $VIX is coming through how I have hoped, and today we show a potential ending count to the decline in $VIX since 10/13. This also matches the positive divergences seen on all $VIX technical indicators on both the 15-min and hourly charts, and we are very close to getting a $VIX BUY signal, as we cycle closer to the MACD positive cross on the hourly chart.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

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