Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another gap opening, DOW +53

Last night FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech: Asian markets lost 1.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 2.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. It opened at SPX 1903 and continued to fall. The SPX had closed at 1921 yesterday. At 10am New home sales were reported lower: 494K v 544K. Around 10:30 the SPX hit its low for the day at 1891, and then started to rally. The rally continued throughout the day, with seven to eight point pullbacks, closing the opening gap and hitting SPX 1932 at 3:30. After that the market dipped into the close to end the day at SPX 1930.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30, then FHFA housing at 9am.

The market gapped down at the open, for the twelfth gap opening in the past thirteen trading days. At the open we adjusted the count to display and Int. wave A high at Monday’s SPX 1947, with Int. B underway. This gives Int. A seven waves up from the SPX 1810 low: 1836-1822-1888-1875-1931-1902-1947. This pattern is known as a double zigzag. The selloff from that high was the largest since the rally began at SPX 1810: 1947-1891. At today’s low the market had retraced about 38.2% of the rally, and was extremely oversold short term. After that the market took off to the upside as another volatile day, great for day traders, was recorded. Barring two more gap down openings to end the week, Int. C should be underway. Since Int. A was 130+ points, and Int. B was 50+ points, (both Fibonacci numbers, excluding the zero), Int. C can be 50+, 80+, or even 130+ points from the 1891 low. Oddly enough these resistance levels are still right around the 1956, 1973 and 2019 pivot ranges. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum rose from extremely oversold to slightly overbought on this volatile day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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221 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. This is all Month end game. February month is usually lot positive. Last month end close was 1924. February should have closed lot stronger. Based on monthly close, I was saying weeks before that close will be 1923ish for this weekend (as month ends today). 1887 minus 1810 equals 77, add that to 1874, we get 1951. Be aware it fell but did not go below 1889 yesterday.

    2morow, it will be down little. Next 4 weeks are going to be horrible. SPX should be 1684 before end of March.

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    m short but regretting it right now……………lots of you don’t think its going to move higher but the action says it will.

    1) The trend line from the high is a friggin magnet…….that trend line is around 2010-2020
    2) The market has now been holding in there when oil is down and then rallying when it rallies. Its twisting the story in a bull manner
    3) Dow has already broken out here
    4) The VIX has broken down and looks to be heading into the mid teens
    5) From the bottom we had one three huge up days in a row, two small down days, followed by a huge up day, followed by a huge down day, followed by an enormous intraday reversal to the upside, followed by what appears to be another huge up day………….honestly folks does that really seem like a market ready to head back down right now???

    I wish it wasn’t so but if it smells like a duck, acts like a duck, sounds like a duck…..its an f-in duck. The market is going quack quack

    as I type this just busted 1947

    • simpleiam says:

      Everything seems to be a “friggin’ magnet” to you. And again with the VIX. I don’t understand how you survive all this, but, you’re here and that’s good.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        for the most part I have been saying the trend line from the ATH is a friggin magnet………….look at it if you haven’t. Can you say it’s not a magnet or friggin magnet for that matter? Looks more like a friggin magnet to me as opposed to the former but you tell me.

        Your truly
        Johnny Friggin Magic Money

    • steplaland says:

      Obviously you are not following Tony’s roadmap.

      • simpleiam says:

        He never does and doesn’t have to follow. He does this…

      • llerias7 says:

        Yes, I am…but I am a swing trader, so I go with the momentum to make $ (I think is the goal in EOD, right?)…and the momentum is a bull charge until March 8 or 9…

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        sometimes I do and its good that I do and sometimes I do and its not so good. His B call back in the fall of 14 was very bad. His projections to 2500 on the SP500 ended up being that of fairy dust. His call after the lows of 15 for the market to go to ATH was wrong, and even in the beginning of the year when people like AAmikey was calling for a bear, he was wrong again until the market dropped 13% or so. Not even sure if his failed 5th is right (neither do I). I do think we have a bear, and I do think this market is going higher but like AAMikey I don’t get in and out too much. I try to capture longer term trends. I am net short but not aggressively. If it heads to 1980 to 2020 I will get aggressively short on the assumption we are in a bear. I wouldn’t be surprised if most are wrong on here (including Tony and myself) and this is primary 4 and we see all time highs and see the count change. As many have said on here you sdont rely upon one person to determine how you trade and if you do you are already lost. Tony’s knowledge is very valuable to me but his counts in the last couple years have been off a long and in a big way. Just saying

        • llerias7 says:

          I understand an agree…BUT…I do not rely ONLY upon TC EW count! I follow other three very reliable (along these years) analysts. All of them point to this wave up…in Bear Mkts the waves up can be relentless!

  3. john b says:

    Haha the bulls are running..

  4. torehund says:

    If market rocks upwards, inflation breaks the West, if the market tanks further then so many companies serving a real purpose will go bust that inflation later on will break the West.
    If the market remains flat we will slowly smolder into an all deprived state of powerless totalitarianism.
    Shipping is now so devastated that it pays to avoid paying for passing the Suez canal….things are going insane 🙂

  5. stan502 says:

    SPY daily annoted – bears need to push PPO below zero line, nothing to do until next Tues imo

  6. uas2014 says:

    hi tony, looks like we will get a – div if spx go high than 1947, what do you think?

  7. EL MATADOR says:

    DT still owns this trend until bulls can prove sustain rally above 1956 pivot until then keep trying bulls

  8. stmro says:

    They’re going to park it right until that 1947 resistance again. Leave people wondering which direction the overnight gap will be in.

    • stmro says:

      And guess what, WTI is testing the equivalent level of resistance.

      • Holly Silver says:

        2030 is the area of major resistance and given the likely positive news on Income and Outlays tomorrow we should see a breakout event. HD just announced earnings and expectations. they are steady to up and their 5 year quadruple says something about the health of the consumer and ability to stay lean and mean.

        I am still holding out that we even entered a secular bear market. The lows hit recently have to hold in next month or two. if it does we stay in the long bull trend. Way too many pessimists and one-sided views and assumptions. no one can tell me that Elliot Wave has determined with certainty we are NOW in a bear market as opposed to a correction. the interpretations are so many and all could be held true at the same time. that’s the problem with using this method. Too many assumptions and interpretations. If the service sector is really in a contraction than I would move to the bear camp. until that time I remain with the long established trend.

  9. phil1247 says:

    bought sco on oil spike up

    target remains 25.75

  10. simpleiam says:

    1956 = Normal
    1973 = Strong sucker!
    2000+ = Miraculous!

  11. kvilia says:

    “Dont forget T.C and Fiona bullish
    up to snp 2000”

    My answer – failed fifth.

  12. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    For the guy’s talking about Demark. He is a great guy but very ADD . His programs are looking for week move to 2008 , much like me . Personally , I would like to see 2009 . good luck
    Pink line

    • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      2009 for sentimental reasons – the bottom. Unfortunately 3/12 is a sat !

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Sir Darkness, if his programs are looking for a weekly move 2008 then why is he publicly (twice this week) expecting a LL before a trend reversal? Is he ignoring his algo programs?

      FYI – I like Demark too, he had his fair share of making great and bad calls publicly. Nonetheless he is a very smart dude.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    The DOW is just 44pts from it’s Monday high, but with an hourly RSI at 86 has it used all it’s juice in getting back here? What’s left in the tank to break through?

  14. ABchart says:

    Another rumor:

    Venezuela oil minister announces meeting mid March with Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producers.

  15. stan502 says:

    Looking at SPY weekly, hard to make a case to back up the truck from this field position

    monthly looks like not much is going on, last couple of times we had back to back down months, nothing much happened

  16. Yellen is letting everyone know she s woken up from her nap and bought some oil.
    PPT team.

  17. Looking for a bounce downwards here:

  18. Stocks are watching oil
    Gold is watching stocks
    The Fed is watching oil.
    I m watching gold.
    Seems like gold is coiling for a move.
    I added 10% today GDX
    WIll dollar cost average if H &S on nas breaks up(gold should selloff)
    Will add 50% immediately if 4475 breaks down on nasdaq.

  19. ABchart says:

    ES: session for day traders. Range 1920/1937. No initiative.

  20. CampFreddie says:

    Donald trump has a very good chance at being the Potus , Japan got paid US$ 464m to borrow thanks to negative yields, and China just fined a journalist $23,000 for re-tweeting bad news about the stock market.
    Its a mad,mad,mad,mad,world.

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