Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -189

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were generally lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +5.7% v +5.8%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1939 and continued lower. The SPX had closed at 1946 yesterday. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.47M v 5.46M, and Consumer confidence was reported lower: 92.2 v 98.1. The market continued to decline until it hit SPX 1922 around 11:30. Then after a bounce to SPX 1929 just before noon it went into a trading range between those levels until the last hour of trading. Then the market broke to a slightly lower low at SPX 1919, rallied to 1927, then closed at 1921.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.55%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped $1.55, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance back to the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

Another day another gap opening. This time however to the downside. After yesterday’s short term negative divergence the market opened at SPX 1939, dropped to 1922, bounced a bit, then made a lower low at 1919. We continue to maintain the current count: Int. A 1931, Int. B 1902, and Int. C underway. There is a possibility, however, that yesterday’s SPX 1947 high ended Int. A and Int. B is now underway. If so, the 1901 pivot should again provide support. Will adjust the short term count, if needed, pending additional market activity. Either way the market should eventually work its way higher to complete this uptrend by next week. Short term support is now at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum ended slightly oversold. Best to your trading this “gappy” market!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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256 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    The longer the market hangs around this area like it has been doing, the more the longer term trend starts to improve. I’m still bearish today, but more open to the P5 possibillity than I was just one week ago. Especially if 1956 pivot is cleared.

    • bud67 says:

      My SP500 BoYu indicator, has been on a Buy signal
      since 2/11….thought, you’d like to know.

      • aahmichael says:

        ummm…Bud. I realize that you post your signals long after the fact, however, perhaps you forgot about this post of yours just 2 days ago:

        bud67 says:
        February 24, 2016 at 11:21 am
        Thank You, I own the
        SP500, up/down. Last
        signal was a Sell, 2/22.
        Remains in effect…end

  2. Did anyone notice, In 2007Feb, a day before last trading day of Feb (which happened to be 27Feb) SPX tanked 160 points

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    since the bottom

    2/12 huge up day
    2/16 big up day
    2/17 big up day
    2/18 small negative day
    2/19 small negative day
    2/22 big up day
    2/23 small negative day
    2/24 big down day
    2/15 huge intraday reversal to the upside

    does that seem like the market is ready to drop at 1947 again??

  4. EL MATADOR says:

    yesterday’s and today candle pair show symmetry to the Feb 2nd & 3rd candle pair, FWIW. Since May 2015 DT’s have rarely failed, FWIW. Just pitching my third 2c

  5. iamwhoiis says:

    I’m seeing this as a possibility before it really gets ugly…

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I have a feeling tomorrow the markets blast off and head right to 1956 or higher. Usually intraday reversals of a 40 handle nature show follow through soon after. Its all retarded in my mind but it is what it is. Russell has moved friggin 2 1/2 % I think people are placing too much face in 1947. I’m short but feeling uneasy

  7. NEWBIE says:

    Am I the only bear here?

  8. NEWBIE says:

    Here comes the big ONE, down to 1820!!!!!

  9. Millan Tomic says:

    Could this move 1936-1902-1947-1892 be an irregular correction?

  10. purplember says:

    Tony, are you thinking 1946 to 1890 was all of Int B or possibly minor A of Int B

  11. ABchart says:

    ES: first resistance here (1920). We may need a small pullback to 1909/10, before +/-1935.

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    So let’s say that 1891 was Intermediate B of Major B of Primary A …………………what would be everyone’s most probable target for Intermediate C to end major B????

  13. rc1269 says:

    SPX 4Q earnings update (almost complete)
    454/500 reported
    sales: -4.05%
    earns: -6.36%

    Only three of the primary 10 sectors posted sales and earnings growth (consumer discretionary, health care, telecom). All other sectors had both negative sales and earnings. cheers

  14. ISINCODE says:

    CRM tonight after the bell should be good bell weather for tech/corporate spending. If it gets crushed, likely confirms downtrend continues and vice a versa. http://www.businessinsider.com/salesforce-earnings-preview-2016-2

  15. http://invst.ly/15af0
    Support held, so far… Back-test of the black trendline?

  16. NEWBIE says:

    My inner bear sees 1920-1925 then collapse.

  17. kvilia says:

    Think SPX is forming a right shoulder on hourly before heading down to 1810. ST target – 1920-1927.

  18. Scott C says:

    Hello Mr. Caldaro and friends — is there a way for someone in your group to provide some thoughts on the GDX daily and GDX weekly charts done by Arnout S?

    Wondering if projections are possible for small a of larger a of the B wave since A is noted in.

    Curious also if it is possible for a wave of B could be in and we are looking for b of B.

    Much appreciated — as some people saying GDX has turned for a Wave 3 in a bull market and now people seeing on CNBC 21 as a first top (wondering if that caps us here for a)?

    Thank you

    • simpleiam says:

      “Curious also if it is possible for a wave of B could be in and we are looking for b of B.”

      Hi Scott. You are speaking of Intermediate B, or Major B. This just seems too fast to be in Major B… Whatever. I don’t count waves worth squat. Retraces, yes, waves, only on the fishing boat.

      • Scott C says:

        Hi – thank you for your post. So you would then consider us to be in wave 1 of Intermediate A still? or a smaller a of Intermediate A ? The charts referenced shows a Green A complete so was wondering if we are close to a 1/a of some degree to a Green B. (as you can see I need to be better on labeling).

    • tony caldaro says:

      will forward your question

    • ABchart says:

      My view on GDX. Go to 40/42

  19. xuwu992000 says:

    We are going to close at the low of the day, around 1890, and set up for a huge gap-down day tomorrow.

  20. PPT buying oil now to save the SPX?Wouldn t put it past them.

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