Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +212

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 2.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 272K v 262K, and Durable goods were reported higher: +4.9% v -5.0%. Then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.5%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1937, ticked up to 1939, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1930 yesterday. The pullback lasted until just past 10am when the SPX hit 1925, and then the market started to rally. With five to seven point pullbacks along the way the market rallied to SPX 1952 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.90%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude rose 90 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +0.5%), Personal income/spending, and PCE prices all at 8:30. Then Consumer sentiment at 10am, a speech from FED governor Powell at 10:15, and a speech from FED governor Brainard at 1:30.

A few minutes after today’s gap up opening the first rally of Intermediate C completed at SPX 1939. Then after a pullback to SPX 1925, the market rallied to a higher high at 1952. This gives us three waves up from yesterday’s SPX 1891 Int. B low. Normally after a seven wave A advance, a seven wave C advance usually follows. This uptrend remains on schedule for a high sometime next week. Check yesterday’s update for resistance levels. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. Best to your Q4 GDP trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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317 Responses to Thursday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Will be interesting to see if spx gaps-up over the 1956 pivot on Monday. How many waves do we still have to go? Tony said likely 7, and yesterday was 3. Seems I counted 5 total so far? Anyone?


  2. spindoc73 says:

    Maybe the pattern will change, but these types of moves have been conditioning this participant to expect a sharp move in the opposite direction.


  3. 1999 is a perfect top Based on two Fibonacci convergences and a 13 fib day cycle from the Lows


  4. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Pro Tip , Iwm trades 108.80 -110.05 , save your powder and babbling


  5. blackjak100 says:

    big -div on 60 min MACD…is 1963 the top? Possible, but I like one more HH first next week. Don’t always get it though.


    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      a vote for Trump is a vote for Clinton

      Trump is a disgusting human being. Egomaniac a hole.


      • Page says:

        100% agree … 😀


      • hk1122 says:

        You are so right


        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          Last night’s debate Rubio moved in the right direction and Trump was wobbling but the moderators kept saving Trump. Moreover every time the energy got high they would then direct a question to Kaisch or Carson which just sucked the energy back out and gave Trump reprieve after reprieve. So disappointed in Kaisich’s delusion. He just can’t accept that he can’t win so he keeps allowing the establishment split to favor Trump. I wish someone just looked in the camera and said I understand the attraction of Donald because you are tired of politics and you are angry but this is a man who was given 200 million dollars as a young man. 200 million folks. have any of you ever had 200 million dollars? Is self made man someone who inherits 200 million? he is a rich spoiled kid and he still hasn’t grown up. If you think he cares one iota about your plight or your troubles he doesn’t. He cares about one person and that is himself. Most people on here have given their life to public service. We could have decided to enter the private sector and make fortunes but we decided to make a difference and serve the public. All Mr Trump has ever cared about is his pocket book – not yours. He is running cause he has a big ego not because he wants to make America Great Again. And let me tell you America is great – I am tired of him painting this picture that we stink. We are the greatest country on earth. One last thing Donald you can’t stop running your big fat mouth about how much you want to take America’s jobs back from China and Japan and and Mexico? Is this true? That you are so concerned about jobs in Mexico and the American worker? (Pull out one of the Trump ties). if that is the case why is the Trump tie say “Made in Mexico”?? Donald doesn’t care about you at all – he is an obnoxious immature spoiled rich kid who is disgracing the republican party.


      • bud67 says:

        One, needs to learn control…


  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Hey ya’ll where are we in the wave Count in Intermediate C??? Is this is the fourth wave of seven yes?

    (Johnny Friggin Magnet)


  7. ..and given grand BREAKOUT yesterday, today was supposed to BULLISH with SPX targeting 2300.
    This is like Ben Bernanke saying “I will flood markets with Dollar and bcos dollar is reserve currency it wont depreciate and bcos people will have monies, they will buy good and bcos PCE (personal consu. exp.) contributes 70% to American GDP, economy will grow”


  8. quantmaven says:

    I know one stock does not represent the whole market but Apple is at a crucial juncture. It finished a triangle over the last couple days. It has not broken yet but if we base on the downtrend channel, it seems it could break on the downside with higher odds but unless it broke on either side, nothing is confirmed yet… We also see the same formation of crude oil at the moment. I thought a low was in for crude oil a while ago but I don’t like this triangle formation:


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