After Gold and Silver topped in 2011 many have been looking for a sustainable rally to trade, or exit long term positions. Yet the decline in the precious metals has been generally steady except for a few quick rallies here and there. We have also been looking for a Primary wave A low since last year as well. But each uptrend since then has been short lived or sold off substantially. Since the wave pattern on this four year decline has been quite complex we recently looked at Platinum to possibly get some clues about Gold.
Historically, Platinum and Gold have generally moved together, with Platinum sometimes selling at a discount to Gold and most time selling at a premium. It is at a discount now.
A review of the 1980-1998 bear market displays this relationship quite well. Notice all the bottoms of the Primary waves, in both Gold and Platinum, occurred in the same years, with the exception of the beginning of the bull market. During the bull market Platinum started early, in 1998, which led to a fifth wave failure in 2011. Gold started in 2001, and had a clear five waves up into 2011. From the 2011 high in Platinum it has had a Major a-b-c down, and is still declining. This suggests to us, Gold is not finished with its Primary wave A decline either. Therefore we would expect Gold to make lower low, or retest the low, before its Primary wave A ends. The low so far is $1,130.
A review of the weekly Platinum chart suggests a potential support level at $1,075. This is where Int. C = Int. A, during Major wave C. When a similar count is applied to Gold there is potential support at $1125. This is where Int. C = 0.50 Int. A, during Major wave C. With both metals not that far from their potential lows, we should know fairly soon. You can follow the metals with us on pages 9 and 10 using the following link:
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/10
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Hi Tony,
Would you mind updating the Secular Bear chart and the political take?
2016 is coming soon (Last mention I believe was 2011)
from the original political update
Thank you!
Mike
apologies for posting the request in the gold update– a thought comes to mind..does politics have anything to say about gold?
LikeLike
politics and gold?
FDR confiscated gold so the government could print $$$ during the depression.
Congress rerouted Gold purchases by the US during the depression from the FED to the Treasury, causing the money supply to shrink, which resumed the depression.
Nixon took us off the Gold standard when the government decided it could no longer suppress the price of Gold.
The BOE sold most of its Gold between 1999-2001, just before the bull market.
China in 2004 allowed its citizens to own Gold.
brief history off the top of my head
LikeLike
Tony et al, if Gold does indeed make a lower low for Primary-A, could this mean that Oil too is yet to make a lower low for Primary-C wave?
LikeLike
unlikely
LikeLike
Thx Tony. Maybe SPX P4 will correlate with wave B up for gold
LikeLike
Thanks Tony – thought you might be interested in gold/uranium correlation which seems somewhat strange, but works…..you can also buy uranium on the Toronto market U.TO.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/uranium_and_gold_a_peculiar_correlation/
LikeLike
thx, but do not see much of a relationship after 2007
LikeLike
…here is U.TO (uranium)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=u.to
…and here is GLD
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=gld
LikeLike
hey Tony, thanks for your work. Don’t you think gold needs to bottom by some fairly horrific selloff spike down price action? Thanks
LikeLike
not really
LikeLike
Thanks Tony. No silver lining here. Yet.
LikeLike
Awesome thanks Tony. Very helpful.
LikeLike
Thank you very much for the Gold update Tony been trying to decipher that one for a while now.
LikeLike
Thanks Tony. Very informative Gold analysis.
LikeLike