Commodity update 2015

The last commodity update,, detailed our bearish view on most of the sectors. Since then many of the commodity sectors have sold off during 2013/2014. This update will suggest some sectors may have just started Primary wave counter-trend rallies that could last for a few years. First a look at commodities in general.


The CRB was the standard to measure the commodity index until Goldman Sachs introduced a consumption weighted index, the GTX. Notice the 21 year bear market pattern in the CRB from 1980-2001, a double three (abc-x-abc). A similar pattern should unfold during the current 20 year bear market.


The GTX displays a slightly different pattern for its bull market from 1999-2008. While the CRB was late to get started, and only displayed an abc. The GTX started earlier and completed a five wave pattern into its bull market high. After that high they both begin to look quite similar. Recently, however, the GTX appears to have completed a complex flat from 2008-2015. This suggest a bear market counter-trend X wave may be underway from the recent low, lasting a few years, with a potential to rise back to around 5,000.


Since Crude oil is heavily weighted in the GTX this is goods news for the producers. The recent low has created a failed flat here, which is generally more positive. In fact, over the next few years, Crude could trade between $50 and $100. But the rise will probably be choppy like the B wave rally between 2009 and 2011, see below.


You can follow the commodities along with us, on pages 10 – 11, using the following link:

About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to Commodity update 2015

  1. It is always encouraging to find information that may help in developing an argument for a direction in markets. This link adds another piece to the puzzle. Putting the pieces together allows one to manage risk, being the first priority…!

  2. tkuz says:

    Tony, thank you for all the knowledge you share
    Last year you were anticipating gold sub 1000 this year, assuming that is off the table at this point?

  3. natural gas? Tony, grazie

  4. Hi Tony,
    All this bullishness in commodities along side a bullish dollar “upto 120 if not higher”…?

      • I’m in line with your thoughts re commodities and the Dollar…one has to realign one’s conditioned mind to accept the impending relationship between the two…!

        With regards to the dollar index you have stated that retracements in an uptrend usually last around 7 points…if on this occasion the retracement is greater than 7 do you have extensions in mind? The reason I ask is that some of the currencies have the potential to move higher which may correlate to the DI trading down to possibly 90/91 area.

  5. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony !! Great update.
    You know I am very bullish on commoditioes long term. I belive GTX new supercycle is just starting. So the questions is what is the max level you would expect for your countertrend rally on this index ? I mean what would be your inflection point to turn bullish once again.

  6. hkloon says:

    Tony, does this include hard or soft or both commodities? Thx for the update

  7. Lee X says:

    Your grass must be very high with all this work you been sharing with us
    Thanks Tony

  8. torehund says:

    ON PRICE: Tony do you see an ABC + DE pattern emerging, in that case the D = E in length gives the 150 aim and makes the whole ABCD complex a huge X-wave and then later an E wave to retrace most of wave BC. In that case I cant decipher the usd concurrently going upwards without wrecking inflationary havoc on all nations ex USA.

  9. frommi2 says:

    Is there a reason you don`t expect one last wave v of C down in oil?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Yes, bear markets move in abc’s

      • frommi2 says:

        Of course, but the C should be an impulsive wave otherwise its an wxy?

        • tony caldaro says:

          We do not use wxy in OEW, neither did R N Elliott. We use abc’s and sometimes x.
          The first decline from the Major B top in 2013, was an abc.
          Then there was an abc rally, followed by an abc decline.
          No reason to look for an impulse wave on this time scale since the pattern was quite clear from the beginning.

          • frommi2 says:

            Ah, now i get why i was confused, i counted the long sideways movement from 2011->2014 as a triangle and put the B label at 107.68. Thats the reason i expect an impulsive C wave to end this complete movement as a flat around ~35 near the bottom of 08/09. But thanks nontheless, that way i have a good alternative count.

          • tony caldaro says:

            corrections can be tricky

          • So, I take this to mean that you have no requirement for the B wave of a Flat to reach a certain level, like 90% of the A wave? What level constitutes a FLAT versus a zigzag for you? How you do know you are not just being ‘arbitrary’ about the assignment of Flat for $GTX, for example. The B wave is nowhere near 90%.

          • tony caldaro says:

            If it looks like a flat, it is a flat
            Zigzags look quite different

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