Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening again, DOW -44

Last night FED governor Powell gave this speech: Asian markets gained 0.2% overnight. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 283k v 304k. The market gapped down to SPX 2094 at the open, and hit 2091 in the first few minutes. The SPX had closed at 2100 yesterday. After the low the market started to rally. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.5, but the Philly FED was lower: 5.2 v 6.3. By 11:30 the market hit a marginal new high at SPX 2102 and then started to pullback. After a pullback to SPX 2095 by 12:30, the market high 2100 by 3pm, then dipped to close at 2097.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude dropped 90 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration Friday.

The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. And, for the second day in a row the low occurred within the first hour. Market volatility has calmed in the past week or so. At the low the SPX hit 2091, and then the market made a marginal new high at 2102. It now appears we have seven waves up from the recent SPX 2042 low: 2058-2049-2071-2058-2101-2091-2102 so far. As soon as this short term wave ends we should get a pullback, then another rally to possibly end the third wave up from the downtrend SPX 1981 low. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance now at SPX 2102 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your op-ex Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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87 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fishonhook says:

    Bear skins piled high today. The world frets over geo politics and yet the money men yawn and puck up their checks from the CB and put it in the casino. Many very good minds were fooled by this CB inspired rally, like Hussman. Other called the end too soon. Free money trumps all.

  2. JeffMilano says:

    Tony, I have noticed that when the market is going up this blog has few comments. When it goes down, many comments.

  3. llerias7 says:

    Tony I suspect that a possible peak at 2150(+-10) as a top for 5-V-P3 or just a top for an intermediate I of M5 will be object of discussion tomorrow at weekend update. Anyway given the ECB QE launch the odds will be that 2150 will mark just the top of Int.I !?

  4. fibs-R-us says:

    Anyone have any experience with that 211.80 SPY code?

    • gtoptions says:

      From NASDAQ;

      “Dec 18, 2014 17:55:46 ET
      Pursuant to Rule 11890(b) NASDAQ, on its own motion, in conjunction with BATS, Direct Edge, FINRA and NYSE-Arca has determined all trades in security SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) executed between 15:59:00 and 16:00:00 ET today will stand. This decision cannot be appealed.”

    • Walter Crane says:

      It has been changed on their go to site, its around 2130 now…

      • fibs-R-us says:

        Hi Walter, I’ve been trying ti find you. I left a message in your “other” folder on Facebook. I didn’t know how else to contact you. I also saw the 212.97 print, i’m guessing that is what you are referring to. How can i contact you?

      • fibs-R-us says:

        Walter, what is their “go to site” and how do i get a hold of you?

    • reddragonleo says:

      One charting system (Prophet charts, used inside anyone’s Ameritrade account) shows a high of 211.80 SPY back in December of 2014. Since the market never reached that level it’s not a real print. I call them “fake prints” (FP’s) as many times (not always) they are signals to the insiders where SkyNet (the super computer that runs the market) plans to take the market to next.

      So while it’s not always a “turning” level it is a level that will be hit at some point. Only the insiders know the “when” part. Therefore we can safely assume that it will be hit. Now will it be the turning point too? I don’t know? But from a technical point of view we are very overbought and should rollover very soon.

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Finally, the DOW hits a new ATH, took long enough…

    Starting a position in the VXX, 1/2 position right here in the $29.40’s

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ 161.8% ext & WR2 @ 211.44 😉
    Enjoy weekend all. Keep Warm

  7. sibyn says:

    I´m short here 2104-2105

  8. stephenk1980 says:

    My bearish scenario is now dead so also favouring the upside now

  9. spindoc73 says:

    one interesting scenario for today’s expiry would be a choreographed flash announcement about greece perhaps, which would cause a short-flush andl spike high to end this move up in the area of 2120 or thereabouts. uncanny or unsurprising, depending on one’s outlook, how expiry attracts this type of abrupt announcement.

  10. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony, Do you still think there’s lower lows out there on TNX? Thanks in advance.

  11. IAWT says:

    Anyone considering the 1-2, 1-2 scenario? 2072-2042, 2102-2085. If this is the case this wave goes to 2280ish… if SPX sub divides into 5 from 2085 its gains in chance.
    For now, leaning towards 2085 being a 4 of sub division. Looking for 2130 (3), 2100 (4), 2160 (5)

    Thanks Tony.

  12. travis01 says:

    3 straight days with LOD in first hour of trading…

  13. buddyglove says:

    Greetings all.
    Buying Gold here @spot 1205.8, trade for now, but looking to position into multi-month rally.
    No time for charts today, but looking good across multiple timeframes. Glta.

  14. lunker1 says:

    HD’s 10 at 10

  15. lunker1 says:

    wave 8 (minute 4) on schedule. nice job Tony.

    • lunker1 says:

      minute 5=1=2114?
      seems like a short minor 3 (.786 of minor 1)
      perhaps minor 1, 2, 3 are really minute abc (minor A) of a leading diagonal for Int 1?

  16. News out in a German newspaper said the Eurozone was preparing for a Greek exit. Not sure what the next headline will be. However this news caused a spike in stocks of varying degrees. The winner was the DAX. On my 1 minute CFD chart it spiked 1.27% (140 DAX points equivalent to 228 DOW points) in 1 minute. Try trading that! The move in the cash market wasn’t quite as dramatic but still sent the DAX soaring to ATHs. However it came down rather quickly too. Just the wick on that 1 minute CFD candle was 80 DAX points! Just as incredibly all the gains have been given back as I write with the CAC and US futures indices presently trading near session lows. DAX and FTSE holding up better. I guess the market took the news as positive in the 1st minute and then questioned itself immediately. This is called volatility. More volatility next week.

    • simpleiam says:

      “I guess the market took the news as positive in the 1st minute and then questioned itself immediately.”

      Yep, sitting over here close to the action and it’s now being viewed more negative. Italian’s buzzing about it. Thoughts of Portugal, Spain and Italy possibly exiting, IF Greece is allowed to do so. If Greece goes, and say, Portugal follows, Euro will become stronger, despite EQE.

  17. torehund says:

    Tonys blog has never been a politically motivated Expression site. That said, politics as I see it isnt a driver to events but merely electees attempting to get around the downturns in economy as best as they can. The importance for traders and investors is to grasp the impending consequences.
    Sentiment is created form economic parameters, the population and politicians follow (Mirrors it) in an effort to retian the opportunity to be reelected.
    That said, I made a statement quite a few years ago, concerning nationalism erupting in this bearish inspired bullmarket…Firstly a Norwegian Citizen killed the kids of the Labour party during a summer camp, allegedly invoked by his convictions of islamic evil, and the goverment (Labour party) taking a predetermined part in propagating the demise of the European culture and structures of the society. Right or wrong, in his assumptions a change is taking place. Immigrants(mainly second generation) are now rightfully striving for a better and more equalized future, (and that beeing absent in a plan-based economy where opportunities has been following a feudally ruled system). This causes severe discontent and stress among the immigrants, an therfore stimulates migration of youth to join the Islamic state. This is a sign that change isnt possible within the political system, and a kick in the leg to most European nations nowadays.
    There is an equilibrium where Revenues just can not superceede expenses, and then it all rolls over, even with interest rates are at a minimum. Whatever happens, Europe Will have to endure deflation, wherebye the purchasing power of the money Will have to increase, later on stimulating the wish to borrow money when the decline in asset prices bottoms out, houses etc…
    The inflationary forces Will eventually take over, but only after a healthy deflation of assets like the US experienced in 07, and thats why I am bullish on the Euro (it Will buy more and more), starting not too far from where we are now.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      I like your thought process. Not comparing 30 year bonds to euro, but my thought approach is similar from a technical point of view. The Euro is in a free fall. There are barriers to the upside that require breaking first before I could think about being bullish, so I wait for those signs. Likewise with 30 year rates- I see there is little room to the downside and lots to the upside. If I wasn’t a trader I would say TBF is a great ETF to just sit on and wait until the chart matures, but as a trader I don’t know if that will be tomorrow or 2 years from now.y

  18. nardobeme says:

    Pullback time! Know this only because I’m 3,800 years old… Ready or not… 🙂

  19. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    The Bears have turned into crickets or dust. I suppose they will be back soon enough.
    Nice info today from rc1269 & tommyboys on the $SKEW. Plug that into your algorithm and it will give you a great top and bottom warning system. Maybe!

  20. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.
    I think market is about have a significant pullback or correction, it may start as early as tomorrow or next week Monday.

  21. bhupal777 says:

    “Trade what you see, not what you believe”

    “On average, there are usually two particularly auspicious times to buy stock each year. The present is considered just such a time.”

  22. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    GDX disappointed today. Very poor show, my long position came few cents close to getting stopped out. Actually I should have been exited. Got busy at work and the market closed by the time I realized. This could very well gap down several percentage points tomorrow. Then I take a larger loss than what I intended.

    What is the deal with $FB today. Very strong action with mediocre volume. As per Tony’s count it is in Primary II correction. I can’t imagine it started PRI III uptrend with such a shallow PRI II. If 82 is taken out then we may be talking of PRI III. So as soon as it hits 80 it should start coming down for PRI II correction to continue.

    Tony: Would it be possible if $FB can start PRI III with such a shallow PRI II??

  23. bouraq says:

    Today’s post:

  24. GTO & Robnaardin. Here is how I’ve been tracking AAPL. Just another two TL’s that have been causing head resistance for the past week.
    AAPL Weekly Chart:

    GTO, nice aapl chart you posted today too. thx for sharing.

    • gtoptions says:

      Thx Matador, agree with you’re TL chart.

    • robnaardin says:

      Thanks Matador

      Agree, lot’s of resistance for aapl above 128.
      Yesterdays bounce off the rising 5min 100 ma was a dud.
      So far, this mornings bounce off the rising 5min 200 ma is showing more promise.
      I’m not a big trend line fan, because I’m too lazy to draw them.
      That’s why I use ma’s. 🙂

      Monthly, weekly, daily and hourly aapl trends look a-ok to me.

  25. JW says:

    A week or two ago, I posted the NYSE advance-decline graph which was making new highs in advance of Price, and I received a criticism that the graph was being primarily driven by bond ETF funds. Well, I found an advance-decline graph that only includes common stocks, which hit a new high today in advance of $NYA:!ADLINENYC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=t85660454541&a=389481825&r=1424381794788&cmd=print

  26. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony keeping suspense for Friday.

  27. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Folks remember its biotech time.

  28. Sorry it should read “SPX close at 2091 or below…”

  29. That is for the first time in years, that technical indicators for all indices (DAX,FTSE,SPX,INDU) are in tandem. Tomorrow, SPX close at 1991 or below, will be an excellent news for BEARS, which opesn doors for very large fall. The fall will easily take 1980 and go much below it.

    • mharrison60 says:

      Thanks Tony.

      Shrihas – please can you expand on what you are seeing / expecting

      • lunker1 says:

        are these the same indicators you used for your previous fractal calls that failed? What is the success ratio of these indicators are when did they last trigger?

        • Linker1, Like the other idiot, I also could have used words like; FU, POS. But, I always like criticism. In own eyes, everyone thinks him/her self great. But it is important to see how others feel. Idiots disappear and I don’t.

          This model is different and I think I have already answered this (as this is the second time you are asking me this Q). Pl. check your question in the last week of December, around, when Richard Russell famous advise to “go all in” appeared and people lost their shirts in next one month.

    • jamesbondman says:

      Aren’t you the new Greek Prime Minister…?

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