SHORT TERM: gap down opening again, DOW -44
Last night FED governor Powell gave this speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20150218a.htm. Asian markets gained 0.2% overnight. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 283k v 304k. The market gapped down to SPX 2094 at the open, and hit 2091 in the first few minutes. The SPX had closed at 2100 yesterday. After the low the market started to rally. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.5, but the Philly FED was lower: 5.2 v 6.3. By 11:30 the market hit a marginal new high at SPX 2102 and then started to pullback. After a pullback to SPX 2095 by 12:30, the market high 2100 by 3pm, then dipped to close at 2097.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude dropped 90 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration Friday.
The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. And, for the second day in a row the low occurred within the first hour. Market volatility has calmed in the past week or so. At the low the SPX hit 2091, and then the market made a marginal new high at 2102. It now appears we have seven waves up from the recent SPX 2042 low: 2058-2049-2071-2058-2101-2091-2102 so far. As soon as this short term wave ends we should get a pullback, then another rally to possibly end the third wave up from the downtrend SPX 1981 low. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance now at SPX 2102 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your op-ex Friday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market