Friday update

SHORT TERM: options expiration Friday, DOW +155

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2097 close. The pullback continued until 10am when the SPX hit the 2085 pivot. Then the market started to work its way higher. Heading into the afternoon the market responded positively to a potential four month debt extension between the EU and Greece. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2111, a new high, then closed at 2110.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slid $1.05, Gold dropped $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.883tn v $4.036tn. Today the WLEI was reported unchanged at 45.7%.

The market opened lower today for the fourth consecutive day this week. And for the fourth time made its low for the day within the first hour of trading. At the low, lowest level this week, the SPX hit 2085 and then rallied, with only three point pullbacks along the way, to make new highs. Even the DOW made an all time new high today. Will we cover what this implies and other tidbits in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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27 Responses to Friday update

  1. Tony, what would theoretically cause this market to turn into a bear? A sudden rise in interest rates? (Not likely), a pandemic similar to Ebola (in California I believe, they re trying to contain a supervirus), a major terrorist attack.Or none of the above (something else?).Obviously you see a bull for 2 years, but black swans do pop up from time to time.Thanks.

  2. fotis2 says:

    I often wonder if it is the News that drives the Market OR the Market that drives the News I am specifically referring to the Political news here.I am starting to lean toward the second scenario for it has been proven time and again regardless of Breaking news specials, as a trader your highest probability setup always lies within the chart and whatever system or indicators you favour using for entering or exiting a trade.So by watching what the Market is doing you have a fair idea where the news is going and not the other way round which in itself opens a can of worms:Are we really as informed as we think we are??

    • torehund says:

      ..most of mans misery and happiness resides in perception, and nobody knows where its coming from. As individuals and collectively Our mood has minute, weekly, monthly and yearly cycles, and so has the market. The study of EW is a study of cycles in many timeframes and With many participating stocks, or Waves if you like. Its heavily bipolar, nothing is what it is anymore, its either dreadfull of fantastic.
      Noise has been running rampant since the year 2000.
      A heavy burden on mankind, and emotional upheaval eventually leads to structural change in the society.

      • fotis2 says:

        An excellent observation and one I can relate directly to in looking back at life its been a string of good periods following a string of bad ones from the smallest timeframes to the largest interupted with the constant,neverending search for some kind of equilibrium.Fortunate indeed is the man or woman who has succesfully found that balance I know the search has nothing to do with riches and everything to do with perception for the happiest people I ever had the fortune to meet were also the poorest .I doubt I’m the only one who feels that since the turn of the century we officially live in the huge grey area where everything has turned upside down, wrong is right good news is actually bad news and the list goes on.

        • torehund says:

          thats what happens when governmnts intervene in the cycles of nature..but they are part of it too, creating even more disharmony and all these large X-waves

  3. torehund says:

    ..just had to og radical on this one (mowing away all the x.crap), hope there is aother abc further back in history..

  4. robnaardin says:

    Grazie Tony

    Nymo was acting like 1820 to 2079 was a w1 and since 1980 it’s acting like an ongoing w3.😉

  5. pooch77 says:

    Getting close to top ,possibly another 1-2% up, than correction ,than a ride up to 2200-2250 into late April

  6. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Looking at SPX don’t see down day coming on Monday. Still more upside before next >10 point pull back. But FB and TWTR stalled at the resistance lines. So may need some breathing time before launching next upside. Intend to ride the wave as long as it persists or the stop loss hits. Otherwise my CYBR, FEYE, VIPS, AMZN are on a roll. KRE still trying to catch up with rest of the market. May not make a sizable move until next payroll numbers.
    Have a nice week end to you all.

  7. lunker1 says:

    Thx Tony. Looks like 1 solid wave from 2085. Impulsing again?

  8. nardobeme says:

    Thanks Tony. Look forward to weekend report. I suspect your blog will be back to “normal” traffic next week. GW to all from sunny Oregon coast…

  9. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony not badly today although was expecting it yesterday never plays nicely this market seems they’ve reached some agreement as regards the Greek issue.GL have a nice weekend all trade safe and next week keep eyes wide open..🙂

  10. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr. Caldaro,

    Looking forward to the weekend update!

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Suppressed volatility thanks to low volume being a quasi-holiday week and the potential for a 4-month Greece deal. China re-opens Monday and school vacation week is over, everyone will be back to work so to speak; participation and volume should return.

    Bought more VXX at $28.83 (about 16.90 on the March VIX future). Spot VIX now at 14.30 – getting closer to the 14.01 low from 12/24. That’s right, Christmas Eve level of volatility.

  12. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Have a good’n

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