Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW -18

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported lower: 1065k v 1089k, Building permits higher: 1053k v 1032k, and the PPI lower: -0.8% v -0.3%. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +0.2% v -0.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2095 then drifted lower. The SPX had closed at 2100 yesterday. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2092, then rallied to 2100 right after the FOMC minutes were released: After a pullback to SPX 2094 by 2:30 the market rallied to close at 2100 again.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude dropped $1.95, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2199 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today, dipped to SPX 2092, then traded between 2094-2100 for the rest of the day. The market did post a nine point pullback from yesterday’s SPX 2101 high, dropping short term momentum below neutral. This was enough to generate another wave in our short term count from SPX 2042. We now have six waves up and appear to be in the seventh. Short term support is at SPX 2092 and the 2070 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2001 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum dropped below neutral, then ended the day slightly overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM  TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market



About tony caldaro

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100 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. robnaardin says:

    AAPL flag that started forming this morning, has busted out, things should get interesting…

  2. lunker1 says:

    +D RSI5 60min at today’s low

  3. mjtplayer says:

    What a boring market, hadn’t looked the indices for almost 4 hours today, I just checked and they’re exactly where they were when I checked around 10:30am. ZZZzzzz…….

    Chinese New Year today, Chinese markets have been closed since Tuesday and Asia generally is very quiet. Super low volume here in the US, again. Watching the market over the past week or so has been like Groundhog Day.

    Untradeable market with volatility and volumes this low. Just a buy and hold kinda market, super boring…

  4. Tony, it’s tough counting these squiggles and various ways to count it too.
    From a glance on 10 minute chart I can see 9 wave up from 1942 (ignoring the noise), currently in wave 9. But if you zooming in near the top I also see a wedge forming and targeting the 2105 (+/-5) for as a termination to this rally wave of whatever degree it is.

  5. fotis2 says:

    It breaks out of that good for 2112 run Forest run..

  6. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, does the ABC pull back from Tues hi to today’s low adjust yesterday’s view and instead the 7th wave up started today?

  7. One more pull back, Then up?

  8. ABchart says:

    Hi everybody! someone know what is the SKEW Index? (Bloomberg code = same name)

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Three day test of WR1 @ 210.10 ~ Next WR2 @ 211.44
    GL All

  10. stephenk1980 says:

    New highs today will be the second confirmation of what I’m looking for.

    We’ll see…

  11. stormchaser80 says:

    Still looking for a market top, increase in volatility.

    I took a look at internals, and over the course of the last couple of trading days I saw deterioration in various ARMS, Declining Volume, Declining Issues, Advancing Issues, Participation Indices and Upward Volume.

    Trailing indicators still look strong including Breadth, Issues above 20 day EMA.

    No panic in Junk or Volatility.

    This pattern is very normal for a topping process. But I must see follow-through with this trend tomorrow, and deterioration in Breadth, Issues above 20 day EMA, Junk and Volatility.

    Over the course of the last several days # bullish chart categories went from 86.49% to 47.75% and number or bearish chart categories went from 0% to 22.22%.

    Total bullish charts went from 89.49% to 61.56%.

    I track 333 charts in 37 different categories daily.

    I believe the drop in oil is telling us a change in trend is imminent or occurring.

  12. fotis2 says:

    Geez everything on Sell mode today so far

  13. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!!

    The NDX is now above the upper trend-line of the long term uptrend channel in place since 2011, and has back-tested it so far successfully over the past 2 days. That’s quite a feature and nothing bearish about that. The NDX’ most likely next target is the ascending trend-line that goes all the way back to the ’09 price low.

  14. torehund says:

    What about a dollar discusion in here, as major crossroads are Ahead. My euro prediction tells of a renewed cycle of euro strength. Fundmentally speaking fear may be about to subside and inflation about to kick in on US Mainland. Concurrently the Euro countries can not by any means seem to produce any inflation, let alone many feeble attempts; this hints of impending and further deflation thus strengthening of the euro.
    Sid at EW-predictions has the usd declining into 2017, making a slightly higher bottom (he also thinks it has bottomed out).

  15. blackjak100 says:

    bear market to start shortly and CN did not write the article…

    • CB says:

      Thx BJ. Nice read. He’s making a good case for it , with lots of supporting info & charts. It would be nice if timing a bear market were that easy..
      Regarding your WROC signal question, I think your gut feeling was correct the other day – a double WROC signal was mentioned in the July 24 , 2010 wknd. report. GL everyone.

  16. reddragonleo says:

    Rabbit, all my indicators say we will top out in the 3rd quarter of 2016 and tank until the end of 2017. Between now and then I’d expect some minor corrections (like 5% or so) this year until the work off the overbought conditions on the big picture (the monthly chart).

    As for the short term, I’m expecting a top in the 2125-2130 area and then a down turn for awhile. How long will be determined after we first see the top and the turn back down.

    • rabbittrader1 says:

      Well reddragon: How can I dispute you ,as what you say and what I say are in the future. I say 2190 SPX on May 2nd. and after a correction into Sept 2015 ,to maybe 2054, THEN a RISE into late SEPT. 2017 to 2761 SPX. Que Serra, Serra, ,We shall see ! Yours ,,with utmost respect , Rabbit.

  17. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony and all.

    ECB extends ELA for Greek banks ($78 billions / 2 weeks)

  18. sibyn says:

    Well… Sold my stocks.
    Short from 2101 again, i can’t see anymore upside
    GL… Cu.

  19. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Entered long GDX. I think today we have seen very good R/R entry to play for next 1 week period. First hurdle is 22 and then 23. If these 2 resistances are cleared it goes straight to 26.
    Good Luck all.

  20. Gary Lewis says:

    The last of months and months and months worth of puts expire on Friday. You know what that means? Now that I’m totally out of puts, the market is sure to collapse! You can take that to the bank!

  21. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis!

    S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, Transporters, Utilities, Nasdaq Composite, NYA key levels to watch for here:

  22. pooch77 says:

    Yes its going up but look for nice pullback starting next week to rest into march when europe starts qe

  23. rabbittrader1 says:

    I really believe strongly in Elliot Wave, But sometimes some cannot see the forest for the trees. In other words ,relax, Elliot Wave is not the only indicator of the stock market. IT IS GOING UP !! Rabbit

  24. bouraq says:

    Today’s post:

  25. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony! Hope all is well there.

  26. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony

  27. If we are in wave 7 we should make new highs tomorrow. I was thinking we would get a 20 – 30 point pull back before resuming higher. Maybe Greece as a reason. Tomorrow may be more interesting then I thought.

  28. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, if from 2042 is minor 3 and now in 7th wave would you expect 9 waves to complete minor 3 unless it subdivides to 13 waves?

  29. rabbittrader1 says:

    UP from here into MAY 2nd at 2190 Yoy KNOW IT TONY!!!!

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