Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2872. After a gap up opening Monday to SPX 2887, the market headed lower and a gap down opening took it to SPX 2867 Tuesday morning. After that the market rallied, helped by a gap up opening on Thursday, into the end of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.50%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the PPI and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: consumer credit, the NFIB, wholesale inventories, the CPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, business inventories, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the NY/Philly FED and housing. And, it’s quarterly options expiration.

LONG TERM: uptrend

For the past two weeks the bull market had seemed to stall after the SPX hit 2917. The indices we are focused on all pulled back, and the SPX lost 54 points. Tuesday the SPX retested last weeks’ low. Then the market rallied, and the DOW was making new highs for the uptrend by Thursday. It looks like the uptrend has resumed.


The Major wave 1 bull market count remains unchanged. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate waves iii and iv completed in the spring of 2018. Intermediate wave v has been underway since that Int. iv April low. We are still expecting SPX 3000+ by 2018+ before the bull market ends. And the DOW, NYSE and DJ World to all make new highs too.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend inflection point

The count we have been tracking for this uptrend remains: Minor wave 1 SPX 2791, Minor 2 SPX 2692, Minute i of Minor 3 SPX 2863, Minute ii of Minor 3 SPX 2802, then Micro 1 of Minute iii SPX 2917. This count is posted on the SPX hourly chart in the short term section.

Last weekend we noted the possibility that the SPX 2917 high may not have been a Micro wave 1, but a Minute wave iii. This would suggest the current pullback to SPX 2864 was Minute wave iv. As long as the pullback does not drop below SPX 2863, the high of Minute i, this count remains possible. This count is also posted on the SPX hourly chart with the “or iii” labeling.

On Wednesday we added another count into the fray. Just trying to be objective as the market passes through another inflection point. This count suggests the entire uptrend is not Intermediate wave v, but only Minor wave 1 of Int. v. This count is posted above. If the SPX makes new all-time highs this count will be eliminated. Another interesting juncture in this 2+ year bull market.


While this uptrend continues to unfold a potential three short term counts have emerged. These three counts were described in the above section. And, none of them suggest a bull market top is near. Br-exit, Trump, Macron and even Tariff events have occurred in the past 2+ years, and still the bull market continues.

Currently the SPX/NDX/NAZ/TRAN and R2K have all recently made new all-time highs. The DOW/NYSE/DJW and SOX have yet to do so. Until the latter group does make new highs, the former group will continue to rise. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Short term momentum ending the week at neutral. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mixed on the week but gained 0.7%.

European markets were also mixed and gained 0.4%.

The DJ World index gained 1.2%, and the NYSE gained 1.1%.


Bonds appear to be in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude is in an uptrend and gained 1.8% on the week.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.4% on the week.


Monday: NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: the NAHB. Wednesday: housing starts and building permits. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED, existing home sales, and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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275 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Tim Waters says:

    Camp Freddie, Thank you for the most excellent tip on the Hang SENG the other day. Got out of YINN this morning and did very well. Dabbling in SDOW and TVIX this morning….I believe TVIX is a strong play at least for the next two days


  2. as of now, Bulls in charge and simply playing with the bears. They tease the bears with a yo yo. get close to dropping and they yank the market up 2-4 points in seconds. So either Bears need to take the yo yo away by dropping below 2803 or the bears are going to run this up and squeeze the bears up to 2931 tomorrow. Bulls win 95% of the time at every inflection point. key again is 2903.


  3. phil1247 says:

    ndx needs to print above 7498 to stop digging itself further into the hole


  4. gary61b says:

    spx looks to have a -D on the 60.


  5. phil1247 says:


    i dont know what you guys are smoking
    but ndx looks like it is looking for a banana peel to slip on

    so it can drag the whole thing down


  6. Hi,DOW is unfolding triangle targets as expected till now
    DJUSIN is gapping above targets



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