Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2872. After a gap up opening Monday to SPX 2887, the market headed lower and a gap down opening took it to SPX 2867 Tuesday morning. After that the market rallied, helped by a gap up opening on Thursday, into the end of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.50%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the PPI and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: consumer credit, the NFIB, wholesale inventories, the CPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, business inventories, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the NY/Philly FED and housing. And, it’s quarterly options expiration.

LONG TERM: uptrend

For the past two weeks the bull market had seemed to stall after the SPX hit 2917. The indices we are focused on all pulled back, and the SPX lost 54 points. Tuesday the SPX retested last weeks’ low. Then the market rallied, and the DOW was making new highs for the uptrend by Thursday. It looks like the uptrend has resumed.

 

The Major wave 1 bull market count remains unchanged. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate waves iii and iv completed in the spring of 2018. Intermediate wave v has been underway since that Int. iv April low. We are still expecting SPX 3000+ by 2018+ before the bull market ends. And the DOW, NYSE and DJ World to all make new highs too.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend inflection point

The count we have been tracking for this uptrend remains: Minor wave 1 SPX 2791, Minor 2 SPX 2692, Minute i of Minor 3 SPX 2863, Minute ii of Minor 3 SPX 2802, then Micro 1 of Minute iii SPX 2917. This count is posted on the SPX hourly chart in the short term section.

Last weekend we noted the possibility that the SPX 2917 high may not have been a Micro wave 1, but a Minute wave iii. This would suggest the current pullback to SPX 2864 was Minute wave iv. As long as the pullback does not drop below SPX 2863, the high of Minute i, this count remains possible. This count is also posted on the SPX hourly chart with the “or iii” labeling.

On Wednesday we added another count into the fray. Just trying to be objective as the market passes through another inflection point. This count suggests the entire uptrend is not Intermediate wave v, but only Minor wave 1 of Int. v. This count is posted above. If the SPX makes new all-time highs this count will be eliminated. Another interesting juncture in this 2+ year bull market.

SHORT TERM

While this uptrend continues to unfold a potential three short term counts have emerged. These three counts were described in the above section. And, none of them suggest a bull market top is near. Br-exit, Trump, Macron and even Tariff events have occurred in the past 2+ years, and still the bull market continues.

Currently the SPX/NDX/NAZ/TRAN and R2K have all recently made new all-time highs. The DOW/NYSE/DJW and SOX have yet to do so. Until the latter group does make new highs, the former group will continue to rise. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Short term momentum ending the week at neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week but gained 0.7%.

European markets were also mixed and gained 0.4%.

The DJ World index gained 1.2%, and the NYSE gained 1.1%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude is in an uptrend and gained 1.8% on the week.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.4% on the week.

NEXT WEEK:

Monday: NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: the NAHB. Wednesday: housing starts and building permits. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED, existing home sales, and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

275 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Tim Waters says:

    Camp Freddie, Thank you for the most excellent tip on the Hang SENG the other day. Got out of YINN this morning and did very well. Dabbling in SDOW and TVIX this morning….I believe TVIX is a strong play at least for the next two days

  2. as of now, Bulls in charge and simply playing with the bears. They tease the bears with a yo yo. get close to dropping and they yank the market up 2-4 points in seconds. So either Bears need to take the yo yo away by dropping below 2803 or the bears are going to run this up and squeeze the bears up to 2931 tomorrow. Bulls win 95% of the time at every inflection point. key again is 2903.

    • Ashley says:

      I just stopped out…. I don’t want to risk holding overnight with things looking so unstable but I agree a small long here for “free $$$ Friday” looks reasonable, of course the close will be important….

    • yo yo in good shape. sp went from plus 2 to plus 5.58 compx going to close green, new highs tomorrow. Go figure

  3. phil1247 says:

    ndx needs to print above 7498 to stop digging itself further into the hole

  4. gary61b says:

    spx looks to have a -D on the 60.

  5. phil1247 says:

    bulls

    i dont know what you guys are smoking
    but ndx looks like it is looking for a banana peel to slip on

    so it can drag the whole thing down

  6. Hi,DOW is unfolding triangle targets as expected till now
    DJUSIN is gapping above targets
    thanks

    https://invst.ly/8np11
    https://invst.ly/8nfic
    https://invst.ly/8npdk

  7. so either the B wave finished up today or chop up to finish minor 3. should find out soon

    • Ashley says:

      I just bought the DOW, It is going to make a new hig, COMPQ just bounced off the 200 on the hourly and SPX is also clear for takeoff .)

    • Ashley says:

      It’s a short term trade via DIA and Im looking to hold until the end of the week, bought at 26430, stop is 26420…. Looks like it will be drawn to a new high like a magnet =)

  8. purplember says:

    Tony, if we get to a new high, is the “preferred count” 2864 was minute IV of minor 3 and we’re in minute V to complete minor 3.

  9. phil1247 says:

    CL
    70.69 target hit
    best to exit and await further developments
    another failed breakout now ?
    or is this one for real?

  10. lml25 says:

    Direction Date range
    down Aug-30-2018 18.89 to 18.86
    down Aug-15-2018 19.74 to 19.45
    down Aug-13-2018 20.51 to 20.41
    down May-15-2018 22.67 to 22.38
    Here are some gaps on GDX that may potentially get filled if this gets rolling–based on DXY weakness.Goldfingers crossed.

  11. emuntrader says:

    Looking for another pop to end last ABC of the 5th wave – then back down.

  12. lml25 says:

    It looks like DXY is breaking down from a H&S.Goldfingers crossed.Downside target 91?Hard to believe,but that’s the PO.GL all.

  13. wow look how they pushed the sp up 4 point in seconds. Battle at 2903 continues. bears are close. looking to short now if 2903 is broke.

    • hi trying..mentioned last week that last week (Thursday), was futures rollover from the September contract to the December contract. Sept expires on Friday. However, the bulk of the rollover occurred this morning? For those that are unfamiliar with rollover week. Large traders were short futures, portfolio insurance?…they had to BUY futures contracts to settle their position….that was the rally last week, perhaps yesterday. That leaves the large traders naked or exposed to the market…so they SELL the December contract, again for portfolio insurance?…..I think we are seeing this today. IMHO, I believe the choppiness in the markets could settle down and trade more technically by Thursday.

      • quickrick38 says:

        Indeed the market is trading very strange today. I didn’t think today would be any good for trading, so I decided to just sit on my hands. Nevertheless, it is still amazing to me. When the market is up 4pts, all the SPY Calls are negative (as well as the Puts). But what is even more amazing to me is that when the market makes a small move up, the value of the puts goes up! When the market makes a small move down, the value of puts actually goes down! completely crazy.

  14. Page says:

    Gold miners and Pot stocks will shine.

  15. floyd drummer says:

    phi,
    …thx for the ZB chart.

    BTW: you got to the morning low via an extension from tuesday morning, …and i got the there from an overnight traditional. mine was to the tick, …yours +2 ticks.
    your .50 short was my follow-up micro long target.

    …nice

  16. asaraniti says:

    Morning all. Phil agree with you on this mornings posrs. Took some time off to enjoy the boat. Large traders were selling all day yesterday into this rallly. Will see today if that was a wise move. Extension long broke so there should additional weakness .

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnZIeViUAAA2Vr8?format=jpg

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Safety plays collectively are all at or near record short positioning (VIX, Treasuries, gold); meanwhile pot stocks are going crazy.

    Sounds to me like euphoria and dislocated reality, no fear in this market. Even worse, “fear” collectively is at record short interest.

    Initiating a small long in TLT here, shorting TLRY at the open.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NZ8LeHlx/

  18. As always, another interesting day. Double options.
    1.as Gary said 7 waves up. This down wave is 8 and then another 25-30 point rally to finish 9 up

    2. C wave down in progress

    I’m in the camp up thru Thursday. But what do I know.

    Good luck all

  19. phil1247 says:

    Theo

    some day bonds will bounce
    but not while they keep hitting -618 targets
    almost impossible to go thru without a bounce now
    i wouldnt consider buying
    until at least an aggressive short can be broken and hold a long from lows

    use ZB or TYX as your guide
    TLT levels are too flaky

  20. torehund says:

    The Usd has to sink for inflation to become cumbersome enough for the FED to hike rates. And when that happens the ex US countries will think they will never have to hike their rates, how myopic can Gov agencies become 😤 When the dollar sinks in a false move FED will have to rise rates to stem inflation. Overseas the countries will then have to increase rates to avert a bank run. At least commodities will run during the false move which I think is right ahead of US now, that includes gold. Thereafter gold may have problems as rate hikes may force some of the most stubborn bugs to liquidate in order to service debt and higher living costs in general. Just my 5 cents for near and longer term🤔🔝

    • phil1247 says:

      tore

      the fed is just going to do what the market tells them to do

      and the market has already raised rates
      the fed will follow the market as it always does
      and will keep raising rates
      till the market tells them to stop

  21. torehund says:

    Relaxed at strenious times….

  22. Bud Fox says:

    Hi……SDS….does anyone have a price target low, for SDS.
    Looking for a price low, later this fall, or early 2019….

    • fionamargaret says:

      Bud, using all the data so far on SDS, the suggested buy price (which is tenuous at best) is 26, so I looked at the permutation for SH and it suggested 58 (we are well below the suggested price there), so we are really not that much ahead…
      I also remember you enquiring about Ford (F)….and the buy price on that is 8….
      I hope this helps.

    • fionamargaret says:

      The article about Kipchoge I found totally inspirational…..I just hope you can open without a subscription. One of my “volunteers” ran into the house shouting “your man won in Berlin”……at least I am not on still about Emil Zatopek.

  23. lml25 says:

    Quite the little move by GDX the last minute of trading.Went from 18.35 to 18.46 –almost as if “someone” wanted to give the all clear for further gains.See if it pans out.I added.GL all.

  24. fishonhook says:

    No mention of Hindenburg omens today lol

  25. fxaprendiz says:

    The long term bulls basically screwed themselves up today by not allowing the SPX to have a soft landing. If they wanted to reach SPX 3000 during this month they should have let SPX to slip under 2864 to have three waves down and to reset the daily cycle. The current daily cycle started on August 15th at 2802 and with 24 trading days today, if the SPX had been allowed to drift down under 2864 for a few days then a new cycle would have been started with the potential to reach 3000. The dip to 2878 indeed re-energized the bulls to try for a new ATH but it will fall way short of 3000, and time is not on their side now, as after a new ATH high is printed, SPX will have a harder landing between 2864 and 2802 as there will fewer days left to reach the low.
    Still on the sidelines as I’m not impressed by either moves up and down. The levels I’m watching for this daily cycle to reach are still 2923, 2931 and 2949. The first level seems within reach by tomorrow. I’ll probably go short by Thursday’s closing time, depending on the levels reached by then and if there’s a harmonic pattern or a set up to trade of. Depending how high the SPX can go there may be a potential for an initial 80-100 points pullback.

    • Jack kendo says:

      fxaprendiz, you really have conviction on your new high believe, not affected by yesterday’s 2886 and lower AH.
      my reading is different than yours on both cycle and price.
      imho, cycle already Topped on Aug 29 with SPX 2906.5. and we are into the crash cycle.
      currently SPX stalled in the range, gap up/gap down, jumping all over the places, it’s a sign of indecision, and open up the Big empty down below.
      I am still holding firm on my big averaged SPX 2902 shorts.
      today picked up some cheap SPY puts, and VIX calls.
      cheers!

    • mcgcapital says:

      The last few years on SPX I can’t actually remember a marginal new high that then led to a major decline. Sometimes 10-20 points then up again, but if we’re talking 2+%, all the ones I can think of came from a high followed by a reaction followed by a lower high, then big down. The late January one was close to straight down, but it did do 2878-2858-2868-collapse. So I’d say if we break the late August high, it probably isn’t going to fall over directly. The best set up for bears is already there, and that’s that we’ve had some volatility around a high (2917-2865-2910-2877-2911…) so there’s a short set up against that high already there to me. It’s just a case of being patient because the up channel is still in play, it’s always looked a bit unsustainable all summer but nevertheless we keep making the higher highs and lows. Trade under 2865 before over 2917 and that changes.

      Likewise on European indices, FTSE has carved out some decent resistance at 7320 over the last week. Trade above there and it begins to look less likely it will drop imminently. And Dax I don’t have a particular level to watch but it’s just retraced 350 points off the low, could do a bit more but would say that’s the minimum required really.

      So overall, think it works best from a bearish perspective if we hold current levels rather than breaking higher

      • mcgcapital says:

        Would also say on FTSE when it bottoms after corrections it’s usually obvious, doesn’t hang around near the lows and usually adds 200+ points within 1-2 weeks. This is more like bearish consolidation. Plus on Dax, we’ve pretty much fully retraced the rally since March and bounced from the March lows a few weeks ago. Given it’s been 6 months since then, this doesn’t look like a retest, more a separate correction so would expect it to make fresh lows before it’s done (being optimistic as it’s odds on a bear market)

      • fxaprendiz says:

        mcg, what I see is something akin to the highs printed on Feb 27th and March 13th. A marginal higher high followed by a total reversal down that lasted 13 days without a discerning lower high after 03/13th.
        It may play that way, it may not, just seeing the possibilities. I’m tempted to just place a OCO short order at 2900-2920 and forget about it…

  26. bears are all toast, they turned back on the buy algos.

      • fionamargaret says:

        A little bit of trivia.
        Jeremy Catto who died this week was another of those sumptuous English academics, teaching at Oriel College, Oxford, who delighted in his most gifted students
        You knew you were one of his favourites when he addressed you as “a deep-fried great man on toast”……I think he earned that title also….x

  27. Theodore Lerts says:

    Phil

    I’m getting close to entering a long position in Bonds. Using TLT as a proxy, I am patiently waiting to see if 117 will hold has strong support. If it does, I will enter into long positions. Generally speaking, with the holiday season approaching, yields can often rise due to an increase in demand for credit. That being said, i’m not as confident in this play as I was around 8/1/2018. Cheers!

    • phil1247 says:

      theo

      you are pretty good with bonds
      just exited TBT
      not ready to buy bonds yet but we are getting close to a squeeze
      because when its so easy to make money short ..you know it cant last
      3 to 5 year notes look might y good to me near 3%
      i am loading up today
      trading in my t bills and going further out the curve now

  28. phil1247 says:

    2919.5 esz8 target

    straight up above 2909

  29. fionamargaret says:

    2895, 2890, 2882, 2864
    25950, 25800
    Let’s see…

  30. lml25 says:

    Another unusual day(new normal?nahhh)GDX making higher highs with the dollar,equities AND yields going up.GDX above 18.42 is a positive.If a H.O.selloff is taking shape,we’ll go down big tomorrow.That’s the pattern of these things in the past.GL all.

  31. gary61b says:

    ES just pondering with 2896 breach and where would we end up at and the 2858 pivot would be good place. ES 2852 is my outlook, but my count is slightly different then Tonys. but its alot of real estate before 2896 let alone 2852. https://gyazo.com/b020cd869c0b2152c9a367b4287f636c

    • 2.5 hours of chop left, last 30 minutes will dictate weather we go up or down. unless the 1:30 moving hour starts something first. Im bullish but a close under 2900 will make me bearish.

      Good luck all

  32. From 9/7 on we have on the hourly SPX chart a clear 5 wave pattern. We are now on the 7th and last wave. All prior waves had another similar pattern, they were progressively steeper and longer than the last. Implication is for 2920-30 area to finish this up and most likely by this Friday. EW might or might not conform to this suggestion but it seems most likely. Response by market is confusing the die-hard bulls. Usually a sign of a reversal soon.

    • I have 2931 by Thursday, when i plan to short. Best bull case is straight up to 2975. but im not buying it.would be looking for a pull back to 2865 area and see what happens there

  33. phil1247 says:

    gary

    take a look at bonds

    they are giving money away if you are short
    i dont like to have to work for it with spx lol

  34. Anonymous says:

    it amazes how people flip from short to long and long to short with every move lol when market zig they zag 🙂 it’s all good if you are day trader or HFT/BOT I only have issue with one paper trader AKA Phil1247 the Zimbabwean trillionaire 🙂

    • fotis2 says:

      There’s always a Joker in the pack

    • mcgcapital says:

      It’s the lowest risk and most efficient way to trade, if you only trade one direction it introduces bias. It’s not about playing every move either, sitting on the sidelines is important and just entering on the inflection points where you can control the risk, then cash profits at the next inflection point and repeat to keep building the account. Just take the high probability set ups, don’t have to permanently have a view

      The alternative is to be a non reactive trader and just have a fixed view and go with it. You can see which people are like that from the posts as they are bullish at the top of moves, bullish when it consolidates and bullish at the lows. Problem with that is that by definition, you’re never out of the market as you never take profits at the highs (as you’re bullish) and you never exit for a small loss when it’s going down (as you’re bullish). Basically means they’re a proxy for whatever the market does. All fine if it keeps going up, not fine if it doesn’t

      • floyd drummer says:

        mcg,

        excellent comment.

        “…trade both sides, …sit on the side lines, …trade (your set-ups)/inflection points, where you can control the risk.”

        add your money management, …and stops…..

        and that is how you trade.
        …it really is that simple.
        now, ..actually doing that is another proposition entirely.

        nice….

  35. phil1247 says:

    gary

    not trading es /spx
    but i have a small extension long support at 2906 that keeps it going straight up
    didnt you have 2906 es yesterday as one of your numbers ?

    otherwise bull above 2901.5

  36. H D says:

    pivots and fibs :mrgreen:

  37. lml25 says:

    The “markets” analyzed the tariff announcement and decided it was not too severe…lol.Plus,China didn’t retaliate.This was actual analysis–I added the quotation marks for sarcasm purposes..Gold stocks (GDX)down .50% early,now even at 18.33.Must not close below 18.10ish.Good luck all.

  38. scottycj1 says:

    SPX Bull Flag—-Up for the rest of the week.

  39. kvilia says:

    Turkey, Argentina, Egypt. Risk on.

  40. mcgcapital says:

    Think SPX could sell off from around here and get some lower highs going. Usually when we start moving up and down and stop making fresh highs it means we’re topping out

  41. phil1247 says:

    CLV8

    trying for another breakout of triangle /wedge / sideways consolidation

    good for a rally to 75.36 target
    which has never been invalidated
    since it appeared at end of june

  42. fenster6 says:

    Phil what’s your take on the opening action?

    • phil1247 says:

      risk to shorts on ndx is now up to 7523 initially
      but realistically risk is up to last weeks high at 7582 ndx
      since the target was not completed for the larger short

      the boys probably want to squeeze
      the most they can out of shorts since they trapped them after 8pm last nite

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