Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2872. After a gap up opening Monday to SPX 2887, the market headed lower and a gap down opening took it to SPX 2867 Tuesday morning. After that the market rallied, helped by a gap up opening on Thursday, into the end of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.50%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the PPI and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: consumer credit, the NFIB, wholesale inventories, the CPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, business inventories, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the NY/Philly FED and housing. And, it’s quarterly options expiration.

LONG TERM: uptrend

For the past two weeks the bull market had seemed to stall after the SPX hit 2917. The indices we are focused on all pulled back, and the SPX lost 54 points. Tuesday the SPX retested last weeks’ low. Then the market rallied, and the DOW was making new highs for the uptrend by Thursday. It looks like the uptrend has resumed.


The Major wave 1 bull market count remains unchanged. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate waves iii and iv completed in the spring of 2018. Intermediate wave v has been underway since that Int. iv April low. We are still expecting SPX 3000+ by 2018+ before the bull market ends. And the DOW, NYSE and DJ World to all make new highs too.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend inflection point

The count we have been tracking for this uptrend remains: Minor wave 1 SPX 2791, Minor 2 SPX 2692, Minute i of Minor 3 SPX 2863, Minute ii of Minor 3 SPX 2802, then Micro 1 of Minute iii SPX 2917. This count is posted on the SPX hourly chart in the short term section.

Last weekend we noted the possibility that the SPX 2917 high may not have been a Micro wave 1, but a Minute wave iii. This would suggest the current pullback to SPX 2864 was Minute wave iv. As long as the pullback does not drop below SPX 2863, the high of Minute i, this count remains possible. This count is also posted on the SPX hourly chart with the “or iii” labeling.

On Wednesday we added another count into the fray. Just trying to be objective as the market passes through another inflection point. This count suggests the entire uptrend is not Intermediate wave v, but only Minor wave 1 of Int. v. This count is posted above. If the SPX makes new all-time highs this count will be eliminated. Another interesting juncture in this 2+ year bull market.


While this uptrend continues to unfold a potential three short term counts have emerged. These three counts were described in the above section. And, none of them suggest a bull market top is near. Br-exit, Trump, Macron and even Tariff events have occurred in the past 2+ years, and still the bull market continues.

Currently the SPX/NDX/NAZ/TRAN and R2K have all recently made new all-time highs. The DOW/NYSE/DJW and SOX have yet to do so. Until the latter group does make new highs, the former group will continue to rise. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Short term momentum ending the week at neutral. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mixed on the week but gained 0.7%.

European markets were also mixed and gained 0.4%.

The DJ World index gained 1.2%, and the NYSE gained 1.1%.


Bonds appear to be in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude is in an uptrend and gained 1.8% on the week.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.4% on the week.


Monday: NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: the NAHB. Wednesday: housing starts and building permits. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED, existing home sales, and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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275 Responses to Weekend update

  1. so either the B wave finished up today or chop up to finish minor 3. should find out soon


    • Ashley says:

      I just bought the DOW, It is going to make a new hig, COMPQ just bounced off the 200 on the hourly and SPX is also clear for takeoff .)


    • Ashley says:

      It’s a short term trade via DIA and Im looking to hold until the end of the week, bought at 26430, stop is 26420…. Looks like it will be drawn to a new high like a magnet =)


  2. purplember says:

    Tony, if we get to a new high, is the “preferred count” 2864 was minute IV of minor 3 and we’re in minute V to complete minor 3.


  3. phil1247 says:

    70.69 target hit
    best to exit and await further developments
    another failed breakout now ?
    or is this one for real?


  4. lml25 says:

    Direction Date range
    down Aug-30-2018 18.89 to 18.86
    down Aug-15-2018 19.74 to 19.45
    down Aug-13-2018 20.51 to 20.41
    down May-15-2018 22.67 to 22.38
    Here are some gaps on GDX that may potentially get filled if this gets rolling–based on DXY weakness.Goldfingers crossed.


  5. emuntrader says:

    Looking for another pop to end last ABC of the 5th wave – then back down.


  6. lml25 says:

    It looks like DXY is breaking down from a H&S.Goldfingers crossed.Downside target 91?Hard to believe,but that’s the PO.GL all.


  7. wow look how they pushed the sp up 4 point in seconds. Battle at 2903 continues. bears are close. looking to short now if 2903 is broke.


    • hi trying..mentioned last week that last week (Thursday), was futures rollover from the September contract to the December contract. Sept expires on Friday. However, the bulk of the rollover occurred this morning? For those that are unfamiliar with rollover week. Large traders were short futures, portfolio insurance?…they had to BUY futures contracts to settle their position….that was the rally last week, perhaps yesterday. That leaves the large traders naked or exposed to the market…so they SELL the December contract, again for portfolio insurance?…..I think we are seeing this today. IMHO, I believe the choppiness in the markets could settle down and trade more technically by Thursday.


      • quickrick38 says:

        Indeed the market is trading very strange today. I didn’t think today would be any good for trading, so I decided to just sit on my hands. Nevertheless, it is still amazing to me. When the market is up 4pts, all the SPY Calls are negative (as well as the Puts). But what is even more amazing to me is that when the market makes a small move up, the value of the puts goes up! When the market makes a small move down, the value of puts actually goes down! completely crazy.


  8. Page says:

    Gold miners and Pot stocks will shine.


  9. floyd drummer says:

    …thx for the ZB chart.

    BTW: you got to the morning low via an extension from tuesday morning, …and i got the there from an overnight traditional. mine was to the tick, …yours +2 ticks.
    your .50 short was my follow-up micro long target.



  10. asaraniti says:

    Morning all. Phil agree with you on this mornings posrs. Took some time off to enjoy the boat. Large traders were selling all day yesterday into this rallly. Will see today if that was a wise move. Extension long broke so there should additional weakness .



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