Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2779. After gap down openings on Monday/Tuesday the market traded down to SPX 2743. Then after a gap up opening on Wednesday the SPX reached 2775 before heading back down to 2744 by Thursday. Friday had a gap up opening, which was sold in the afternoon, and the SPX ended the week at 2755. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.75%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: the NAHB, building permits, existing home sales, and the Philly FED. On the uptick: housing starts, leading indicators, and jobless claims improved. Next week: Q1 GDP revision, personal income/spending, and more housing reports. Best to your week!

LONG  TERM: uptrend

Lots of chatter this week about OPEC and Crude oil. In the end the Russian/Saudi cartel raised production 1m/bbls per day, and crude rallied $3. Guess the increase was less than the market expected. We last wrote about Crude in August 2016: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/08/23/crude-and-the-commodity-cycle/. What was said then, at $45 Crude, still applies. We are expecting a bear market rally high to reach between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then Crude will turn lower, and probably return to $25 around the year 2026. Since Crude has already hit $70 (May18), the $85 level is more likely to occur by 2020.

Nothing has changed on the long term count, as you can see by the weekly chart below. A Major wave 1 bull market underway, with all but Intermediate wave v to complete. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Int. iii divided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring 2017. After that a very long Minor wave 5, completing Int. iii, in January 2018. Int. wave iv followed with a 3-month flat ending in early-April. A choppy Int. v has been underway since then.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

While the general market has been in an uptrend since early-April, only the NDX/NAZ has looked impulsive while the SPX/DOW displays a lot of internal chop and overlapping larger waves. Guess one would expect this type of outcome, if they expected the NDX/NAZ to have a blow off fifth wave while the SPX/DOW formed an ending diagonal triangle. It’s a possibility.

Unfortunately there are a lot of possibilities at this time medium term. The long term target (SPX 3000+ by 2018+) remains on track. For now we continue with the short term count posted. The recent rally SPX: 2677-2791, appears to be just part of Minute iii, possibly a Micro wave 1 and 2.


While we do have a Minor 1-2, Minute i-ii, and now possibly a Micro 1-2 posted, we have been noting that the internal structure of these waves looks choppy compared to other uptrends in the bull market. Currently we have three waves up from SPX 2677 (2729, 2701, and 2791). After that three waves down, which may be a fourth wave flat (2743, 2775, 2744). SPX 2729 is a key level in this structure.

If the market rises above 2791 it starts to look impulsive. If it breaks down below 2729 the corrective activity continues. Short term support is at SPX 2742/43 and the 2731 pivot, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly lower and lost 1.6%.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.9%.

The DJ World index lost 1.0%, and the NYSE lost 0.6%.


Bonds could be uptrending and gained 0.1% on the week.

Crude also could be uptrending and gained 5.4%.

Gold remains in a downtrend and lost 0.6%.

The USD remains in an uptrend but lost 0.1% on the week.


Monday: new home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Case-Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday: durable goods and pending home sales. Thursday: Q1 GDP (est. 2.3%) and weekly jobless claims. Friday: personal income/spending, core inflation, consumer sentiment, and Chicago PMI.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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516 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Lee X says:

    Guys and gals
    Ignore the noise here and do your own work and believe me you’ll do fine.
    It’s all 3 ‘s

    • searchme2017 says:

      Both the DOW and the S&P bottomed on 6/25/18…..retracing the move from 4/2/18 to the fifth wave high of 6/11/18 with an ensuing expanded flat wave “2”.

      The Dow was 61.8% and the S&P was 38.2%. It is impulsing up in five waves and declining in three. We are experiencing a typical wave #2 correction where the majority believes the correction (or bear market) will continue.

      • scottycj1 says:

        Your suggesting 3 of 3 up

        • searchme2017 says:

          I’m suggesting the ABC flat from late January ended at the April low and since then we have been impulsing up and correcting down and the low for the “DOW” was on the 25th at a 61.8% retrace from the 06/11 high and an expanded flat from that level is a wave #2 of some degree (probably minor).

          The “S&P” has had basically the same configuration and its retrace was 38.2%.

          So…..yes, I believe we are very close ………if not already in a “three of a three” which will take the indices to new highs.

          The initial wave #1 was an extremely rare diagonal triangle…..never even mentioned by Ralph Nelson Elliott….but noticed on rare occasions by others. Triangles are by their very nature…….choppy.

  2. Page says:

    I won’t be surprised if TVIX hits 100 by end of this week.

  3. jobjas says:

    For anyone tracking and labelling EW use smaller time frames when market movements are swift like a 5 min or even 1 min and the best are tick charts

  4. kvilia says:

    Will the CL extension break???

  5. A close under 2700 breaks this wide open. Battle is on right here and now. Today determines if we get that cascading drop to 258 as the first stop. The market is attempting numerous times to hold the line. The winner today determines the next big trend.

    • Today fooled everyone. I mean everyone! So far we are heading for a big drop coming next few days. this assumes we break below 2700 at the close. EXCITING! How the market can deceive all. Man is this the granddaddy of all fake-outs!

      We are down 15 SPX points at 3 PM at 2707. At what point will panic selling occur? I assume a close below the lows of last few days but I have been wrong so many times.

      Setting up for that dramatic drop in week 22 and 23? Let the games continue…..

      • travis01 says:

        Not everyone…been short all week

        • I sold today and reentered. How you held when we reached 2740’s is fortitude. It closed ONE POINT below my demarcation line. 2699. Notice how every rally was stopped cold today. I do not see the PPT helping going forward. the tide seems turned. Trade War is here and real as over 2/3rds of CFO’s mentioned it will impact them in 6 months time.

          Still in no-mans land based on price BUT momentum and late day drop with many attempts to rally failed. that’s important. Cascade event? yes very possible and right on target for this is week 22 of correction.

          I was sure my scenario would fail today when we had that strong move. Once it starting failing I chided myself for always being too anxious to play the Puts but did it anyway. It cost me money today and I went from 400 260 PUTS to 300. I am excited because I believe today was the do or die day. the market sailed along until….

          This is a brutal market where you have to clear any preconceived notion and just play the turns. I wonder if PHIL reversed his bias. he always looks for upside potential.

  6. emuntrader says:

    Looks like the market owes us a higher high

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Over the past 4 trading days:

    WTI crude up $7 or over 11%

    XOM up….$0.28 or 0.34%


  8. alexh110 says:

    SPX still following my projection.
    It’s now in the right RSI shoulder of the central IHS, and entering a right MACD shoulder.
    Should eventually set up positive divergences, perhaps by tomorrow morning?

  9. schizo1688 says:

    Thank god I didn’t get whipsaw.. still 95% short

  10. learnedmylesson25 says:

    2746 to 2715–more like it.Whipsaw.

  11. Looks like someone wanted their fill at 2748…LOL

    asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:

    June 27, 2018 at 10:00 am

    All I see is a bunch of 50% and 61.8% shorts in a short range (depending on which anchors you use). If you look at the 1 minute chart, from the 9:30 open all I see is a bunch of a,b,and c’s….. three waves corrective pattern up to the 50% measured move SHORT at 2748.13…which traded to the tick and defending so far.

  12. mjtplayer says:

    Potential bull trap today….

  13. scottycj1 says:

    Think today is a retest low…..we did not follow the futures down this morning so the program traders were not going for it…..It’s a divergence of sorts.

  14. stcoleridge says:

    Rotation out of the RUT into the DOW. Had to happen at some point.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Interesting that the DOW is outperforming despite Kudlow’s comments a while ago. Time for me to inwind my long DOW short RUT trade.

  15. schizo1688 says:

    I just shorted CL using SCO at $73 .. may I have your blessing Phil ?

  16. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Lol.In otherwords–whipsaw.And these guys are experts.Better to say”I have no idea what’s going on.”

      • Anne Day says:

        I can now guess what lessons you have learned 🙂 🙂 🙂

      • mcgcapital says:

        I don’t know why people bother to make long term projections, in this market if you want to make money you’ve got to switch at least once a day. Can’t buy and hold when it’s trending down.. can’t short and hold and maintain reasonable risk management as the spikes are huge

        • fxaprendiz says:

          Unless you can somehow get in at the extremes. My hat down to anyone who can do that consistently. I have tried, with mixed results. Timing is a b**ch

  17. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony for goosing CL , nice job !

  18. E says:

    iii of 3 of (iii) bearish theory still intact despite the spike.

  19. kvilia says:

    Just took CL short via DWT.

  20. All I see is a bunch of 50% and 61.8% shorts in a short range (depending on which anchors you use). If you look at the 1 minute chart, from the 9:30 open all I see is a bunch of a,b,and c’s….. three waves corrective pattern up to the 50% measured move SHORT at 2748.13…which traded to the tick and defending so far.

    For me the line in the and is 2759.42
    asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:

    June 27, 2018 at 7:54 am

    Floyd.. take the high anchor at Friday’s high and the low anchor on Mondays low…/ES just traded, and defended a 50% SHORT to the tick at /ES 2734.50….so far. DH has a few potential resistance levels at 2742 and 2748.

    • phil1247 says:

      asa …

      i cant see struggling to make money on ES

      when they are giving money away on CL

      take a look

      • hi phil..yep, I have been watching CL. I just never traded that instrument before…. I have been concentrating on a bunch of etf’s and stocks. I planned on taking swing trades to ride Int. wave 5. When I saw this corrective action and trade/tariff talk unfold, I decided to get into 100% cash and day trade until there is some clarity.

    • floyd drummer says:

      shorter time frames on the anchors, …shorter time frame on the chart. …trade on the trade not the trend, ….trade when there is trade,.. not trend, ….and there is just as much to be made.
      DH can be about the extensions, ….that’s phil. …for some odd reason i just don’t trend well. ..so i stick to traditionals.

  21. alexh110 says:

    Hourly RSI and MACD seem to be following my projection from yesterday morning (see chart).
    If that continues, the low may be in at 2698.
    I’m a bit cautious to take a position though, since the IHS right shoulders could be quite steep.

    • alexh110 says:

      N.B. MACD could drop into a deeper IHS head to produce a more complex double-shouldered pattern, or make a lopsided right shoulder. So can’t be confident 2698 won’t be challenged and breached.

  22. learnedmylesson25 says:

    What would be interesting for me,since i’m not an OEW expert,is to know WHY the bearish scenario did not work out (so far).95% on here,with all methods,said once 2740.2735,2729 broke (take your pick)meant lower prices–more correction.My interest is WHY this was incorrect.PPT is an allowable answer.

    • fenster6 says:

      because it is very hard to forecast the future by looking at the past. Allowable?

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Not bad.In this case,I guess–news of Trump changing tactics changed algos,which wiped out the bearish wave possibilities.But in OEW or EW,how is the reversal explained after a breakdown of a key level?There are no fakeouts in OEW correct?

      • jobjas says:

        neither OEW nor traditional EW commented that we are bearish . One of the options Tony mentioned in the weekend review was an an ending diagonal which is panning out.
        Is EW biased : NO , WHY ?
        2560 was the definite end to wave 4 from the 1800 bottom and expected another 5 waves of one degree less to complete the uptrend . here that 5 waves took the form of an ending diagonal . The end of wave E may not reach ATH – truncation .

        • jobjas says:

          Also if one stays away from news (real and fake) and ones own interpretation of how that will affect the market AND conspiracy theories AND Trump bashing – ones view of the market will not be clouded . All news and events will have its effect on the market in its time , just don’t predict it .
          After all its our own money that is at stake !

          • learnedmylesson25 says:

            I was trying to avoid incorporating news and going strictly by the levels mentioned.We’ll see how the rest of the day goes.Thanks.

    • fotis2 says:

      Careful with OEW although it analyses the smaller moves they trade the big stuff a couple of trades a year max per instrument I stand corrected of course but this has been the impression I get from hounding this site for years.

  23. fionamargaret says:

    Down to 2714……and then through 2700 to 2656.
    TVIX to 62

    • fionamargaret says:

      …so far so good…x

    • fionamargaret says:

      This was written at 9.29…..this was the sequence….longs were not going to work, except initially….and oil I suggested going long first thing yesterday, as the sequence was presenting an overlap of numbers, then the Iran news came out….
      Only needs 3 posts….and I hope everyone did well xx

  24. 2791-2698 is 93 points.
    .50 retrace is 2745 big number in cash
    .618 2755 over that up up and away.
    1st level is obviously 2745. Im open either way, but bulls always seem to pull a rabbit out of there hat

  25. squeeze it up to 2745 if over then 2755

  26. micky says:

    2700 is a big no,as long as it holds the lower 2800’s is my next target as mentioned previously, to make it 5 up for a c wave of B.If 2700 gives way again the c up may be done and the bigger C down in progress.

  27. phil1247 says:


    door has opened to full retracement to highs

  28. mjtplayer says:

    Fresh all-time lows for DB, yesterday CS hit fresh lows; UBS and SAN are close. The big EU banks continue to grind lower. Houston, we have a problem

  29. Over the past two trading days, it has become more obvious that the markets are weakening. The rally seen in the markets from February to early June has been very choppy and uninspiring. In addition the rally in the Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have so far failed to bring it to new highs.

    The Dow Monday closed below their 200 day moving average for the first time in almost exactly two years. The NYSE Composite is also below their 200 day averages and below trendline support dating back to April.

    The S&P 500:

  30. My opinion chop chop until 2734 cash is broken then 2755 and re access. 2712 broken 2680 and re access. Good luck. News should not effect the trend weather it’s up or down. Good luck bulls and bears.

  31. CampFreddie says:

    As per my very recent post and chart, Ftse -100 chart still very bullish and I still expect a “Stampede” into UK stocks very soon-
    Ftse-100 fut – 4 x hour cont.

  32. phil1247 says:


    egeorge…. update for you

    straight up …………………..
    while above 70.08
    aggressive extension long

  33. chrisk44342 says:

    Phil…nq short retracement

    • phil1247 says:

      sorry chris
      not interested in nq

      got a tiger by the tail with CL

    • asaraniti says:

      Look at futures secondary to White House announcement on China Trade

      • kingfrogcash says:

        Germany is in deep trouble. $DB down 5%. Wait until Trump slaps 20% on a Mercedes.
        Merkel will be riding around on a Harley before the summer is over. If she survives.

        • aahmichael says:

          Trump is all talk, no action. His threats are always empty threats and he always blinks, just as he did again this morning with China. The only time his threats are real is when it comes to incarcerating children, toddlers, and babies.

        • aahmichael says:

          Yeah, just wait until Trump slaps on those tariffs:

          WASHINGTON (Reuters) – An automotive trade group said on Tuesday it would tell the Trump administration that a U.S. threat to impose a tariff of up to 25 percent on imported passenger vehicles under national security grounds would cost American consumers $45 billion annually, or $5,800 per vehicle. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, a group representing General Motors Co (GM.N), Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T), Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) and other major automakers, will file written comments with the U.S. Commerce Department later this week, spokeswoman Gloria Bergquist said. “Nationwide, this tariff would hit American consumers with a tax of nearly $45 billion, based on 2017 auto sales. This would largely cancel out the benefits of the tax cuts,” Bergquist said, previewing the comments. Consumers would also face higher costs of imported auto parts when buying vehicles from both U.S. and foreign automakers, she said.

          • kingfrogcash says:

            I read that fake article yesterday. They said they represent GM. So your telling me GM is against the 20% tariff of Mercedes? Total fake article.
            What about the existing tariff’s already on US auto’s 10%? Why are all these articles one sided.

    • phil1247 says:

      not interested but would not short it till 7080 is violated nq

  34. alexh110 says:

    Decided to try a short from 2718 in the pre-market.
    Decent risk/reward: worth a punt I think.

  35. schizo1688 says:

    well, like i said ,i don’t read into the chart that much… if you know the trend is down,20-30pt SnP upward aint gonna make any difference.. You want to CATCH that initial BIG gap down,that’s where all the meat is

  36. fotis2 says:

    FTSE daily
    DAX Weekly H&S?Definite short if that neckline breaks

    • fionamargaret says:

      Funny you posted that Fotis….I just came across this chart posted in The Telegrah, along with general musings on the death/or not of the Euro, and how Major/Brown/ Thatcher/ prevented Britain from becoming embroiled.
      Thought you and McG might like…..


    • mcgcapital says:

      I want to see FTSE keep making fresh lows for that to happen, so far we’ve held Monday’s low so it’s possible it bounces around in the 7500s then breaks back up through 7600 to who knows where. Short term using 7560 as the bullish above, bearish below line in the sand.

      That Dax pattern is something I’ve had my eye on since March. Now we’ve broken 12600 down then it looks the most obvious play as we have lower highs. Will be quite something though if it happens

  37. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Foreign markets steady,boring–no selloffs from there.DAX futes up–no selloff there yet.Check back at 4am…lol.

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