Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2779. After gap down openings on Monday/Tuesday the market traded down to SPX 2743. Then after a gap up opening on Wednesday the SPX reached 2775 before heading back down to 2744 by Thursday. Friday had a gap up opening, which was sold in the afternoon, and the SPX ended the week at 2755. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.75%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: the NAHB, building permits, existing home sales, and the Philly FED. On the uptick: housing starts, leading indicators, and jobless claims improved. Next week: Q1 GDP revision, personal income/spending, and more housing reports. Best to your week!

LONG  TERM: uptrend

Lots of chatter this week about OPEC and Crude oil. In the end the Russian/Saudi cartel raised production 1m/bbls per day, and crude rallied $3. Guess the increase was less than the market expected. We last wrote about Crude in August 2016: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/08/23/crude-and-the-commodity-cycle/. What was said then, at $45 Crude, still applies. We are expecting a bear market rally high to reach between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then Crude will turn lower, and probably return to $25 around the year 2026. Since Crude has already hit $70 (May18), the $85 level is more likely to occur by 2020.

Nothing has changed on the long term count, as you can see by the weekly chart below. A Major wave 1 bull market underway, with all but Intermediate wave v to complete. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Then Int. iii divided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring 2017. After that a very long Minor wave 5, completing Int. iii, in January 2018. Int. wave iv followed with a 3-month flat ending in early-April. A choppy Int. v has been underway since then.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

While the general market has been in an uptrend since early-April, only the NDX/NAZ has looked impulsive while the SPX/DOW displays a lot of internal chop and overlapping larger waves. Guess one would expect this type of outcome, if they expected the NDX/NAZ to have a blow off fifth wave while the SPX/DOW formed an ending diagonal triangle. It’s a possibility.

Unfortunately there are a lot of possibilities at this time medium term. The long term target (SPX 3000+ by 2018+) remains on track. For now we continue with the short term count posted. The recent rally SPX: 2677-2791, appears to be just part of Minute iii, possibly a Micro wave 1 and 2.


While we do have a Minor 1-2, Minute i-ii, and now possibly a Micro 1-2 posted, we have been noting that the internal structure of these waves looks choppy compared to other uptrends in the bull market. Currently we have three waves up from SPX 2677 (2729, 2701, and 2791). After that three waves down, which may be a fourth wave flat (2743, 2775, 2744). SPX 2729 is a key level in this structure.

If the market rises above 2791 it starts to look impulsive. If it breaks down below 2729 the corrective activity continues. Short term support is at SPX 2742/43 and the 2731 pivot, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly lower and lost 1.6%.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.9%.

The DJ World index lost 1.0%, and the NYSE lost 0.6%.


Bonds could be uptrending and gained 0.1% on the week.

Crude also could be uptrending and gained 5.4%.

Gold remains in a downtrend and lost 0.6%.

The USD remains in an uptrend but lost 0.1% on the week.


Monday: new home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Case-Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday: durable goods and pending home sales. Thursday: Q1 GDP (est. 2.3%) and weekly jobless claims. Friday: personal income/spending, core inflation, consumer sentiment, and Chicago PMI.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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516 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Lee X says:

    Guys and gals
    Ignore the noise here and do your own work and believe me you’ll do fine.
    It’s all 3 ‘s


    • searchme2017 says:

      Both the DOW and the S&P bottomed on 6/25/18…..retracing the move from 4/2/18 to the fifth wave high of 6/11/18 with an ensuing expanded flat wave “2”.

      The Dow was 61.8% and the S&P was 38.2%. It is impulsing up in five waves and declining in three. We are experiencing a typical wave #2 correction where the majority believes the correction (or bear market) will continue.


      • scottycj1 says:

        Your suggesting 3 of 3 up


        • searchme2017 says:

          I’m suggesting the ABC flat from late January ended at the April low and since then we have been impulsing up and correcting down and the low for the “DOW” was on the 25th at a 61.8% retrace from the 06/11 high and an expanded flat from that level is a wave #2 of some degree (probably minor).

          The “S&P” has had basically the same configuration and its retrace was 38.2%.

          So…..yes, I believe we are very close ………if not already in a “three of a three” which will take the indices to new highs.

          The initial wave #1 was an extremely rare diagonal triangle…..never even mentioned by Ralph Nelson Elliott….but noticed on rare occasions by others. Triangles are by their very nature…….choppy.


  2. Page says:

    I won’t be surprised if TVIX hits 100 by end of this week.


  3. jobjas says:

    For anyone tracking and labelling EW use smaller time frames when market movements are swift like a 5 min or even 1 min and the best are tick charts


  4. kvilia says:

    Will the CL extension break???


  5. A close under 2700 breaks this wide open. Battle is on right here and now. Today determines if we get that cascading drop to 258 as the first stop. The market is attempting numerous times to hold the line. The winner today determines the next big trend.


    • Today fooled everyone. I mean everyone! So far we are heading for a big drop coming next few days. this assumes we break below 2700 at the close. EXCITING! How the market can deceive all. Man is this the granddaddy of all fake-outs!

      We are down 15 SPX points at 3 PM at 2707. At what point will panic selling occur? I assume a close below the lows of last few days but I have been wrong so many times.

      Setting up for that dramatic drop in week 22 and 23? Let the games continue…..


      • travis01 says:

        Not everyone…been short all week


        • I sold today and reentered. How you held when we reached 2740’s is fortitude. It closed ONE POINT below my demarcation line. 2699. Notice how every rally was stopped cold today. I do not see the PPT helping going forward. the tide seems turned. Trade War is here and real as over 2/3rds of CFO’s mentioned it will impact them in 6 months time.

          Still in no-mans land based on price BUT momentum and late day drop with many attempts to rally failed. that’s important. Cascade event? yes very possible and right on target for this is week 22 of correction.

          I was sure my scenario would fail today when we had that strong move. Once it starting failing I chided myself for always being too anxious to play the Puts but did it anyway. It cost me money today and I went from 400 260 PUTS to 300. I am excited because I believe today was the do or die day. the market sailed along until….

          This is a brutal market where you have to clear any preconceived notion and just play the turns. I wonder if PHIL reversed his bias. he always looks for upside potential.


  6. emuntrader says:

    Looks like the market owes us a higher high


  7. mjtplayer says:

    Over the past 4 trading days:

    WTI crude up $7 or over 11%

    XOM up….$0.28 or 0.34%



  8. alexh110 says:

    SPX still following my projection.
    It’s now in the right RSI shoulder of the central IHS, and entering a right MACD shoulder.
    Should eventually set up positive divergences, perhaps by tomorrow morning?


  9. schizo1688 says:

    Thank god I didn’t get whipsaw.. still 95% short


  10. learnedmylesson25 says:

    2746 to 2715–more like it.Whipsaw.


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