Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open sold, DOW -166

Negative week so far. Gap down opening on Monday eventually took the market to SPX 2699. A last hour rebound, gap up Tuesday, then higher open on Wednesday, took the SPX to 2746 by the first hour of trading. After that, right back down again to 2699. NAZ rallies – the DOW is sold. DOW rallies – the NAZ is sold. In the meantime, Asia has been lower and Europe mostly lower as well.

With the breakdown below SPX 2729 on Monday, the rally (2677-2791) was corrective like the two previous rallies during this uptrend. This suggests the entire uptrend could be a corrective B, or corrective D of a triangle. Noted the triangle configuration on the SPX daily chart today in green. Keep in mind, the E wave of a triangle does not have to drop to the lower trend line. Also, removed the “uptrend” labels, as it does appear the SPX is in an unconfirmed downtrend. More on this over the weekend. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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335 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Lee X says:

    Go outside and play for goodness sake 😉

  2. torehund says:

    Goog weekend Tony and all bears and bulls alike🌅

  3. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony. x

  4. Lee X says:

    Hey abc123

    What do you think about BTC here ?
    Only if you feel like commenting, thanks.

  5. aahmichael says:

    I think today completed an abc flat that began at the 2699 low on Monday. So I continue to count downward.
    2791 (6/13 high) – 2699 (6/25 low) = A or 1
    2699 (6/25 low) – 2743 (6/29 high) = B or 2

    Normally, the market rallies into July 4th, but Monday is QT day, which might get in the way of that. Fed takes out $18bn in Treasuries on Monday.

    While I don’t put faith in such things, there is a H&S formation on SPX. The left shoulder would be the 5/14 and 5/22 highs, the head would be the 6/13 high, and this week built the right shoulder.

    Also want to make mention of the daily pivots. On 6/13, the DR1 for that day was 2791.50, and the HOD was 2791.47. Today, the DR2 was 2743.23, and the HOD was 2743.26. While the market doesn’t always hit these daily pivots, probably 99% of pro traders always know where they are every day, so it seems to me that if you’re daytrading, or even a position trader who enters/exits intraday, you should always know where these pivots are each day. Many times they nail the top and/or bottom to the tick.

    • E says:

      +1. Thank you.

    • Billy says:

      Well if it’s 1,2 and not A,B then the market is in 3 down. This time last week a similar situation was in place. If this is a large C wave down comprising of 5 waves from 2791.47 then last weekend’s gap down was 3 of 5 of 1 as part of a leading expanding diagonal. This weekend’s gap down, should it occur, would be an order of magnitude greater as part of 3 of 3 under the supposition of a 5 wave C wave down.

      • aahmichael says:

        Correct. Bottom line is if 2692 is taken out, then it would either be a big C wave or a wave 3. Either way, it should accelerate downward at that point. As I previously mentioned to Xuwu, though, waves 2 &4 in a LD have to be zigzags, and I’m not sure if the 2743-2775 rally can qualify for that. It surely isn’t a single zigzag, but Xuwu thinks that double or triple zigzags also qualify, I honestly don’t know the rule about that. So, I’m being conservative at this point and am counting the entire 2791-2699 decline as a single zigzag, rather than an expanding LD. Of course, this all assumes that the trend is still down, and yesterday’s full moon low wasn’t a change in trend.

    • Billy says:

      Another way to count this beast is as a less devastating 5 wave C wave is to say the whole thing from 2791.47 is a contracting ending diagonal. Monday’s 2699 low would be the end of an abc wave 1. Wednesday’s 2748 high would wave 2. Yesterday’s low would be a of 3 with today’s high b of 3. Thus currently in c of 3. In this case 3 must be shorter than 1 and 5 must be shorter than 3. If this plays out then the market will experience a very up and down period, trending lower with the moves getting smaller each time as c of 3 is followed by another 6 whipsaws (i.e. 3 waves of 4 and then 3 waves of 5). This C wave count would assume Int. IV has already completed and be part of an expanded flat completing ii of Int. V. I’m not convinced of this. It’s just another possibility to add to the list. Something the bulls might wish to hold on to is the late session sell-off stopped just short of the 50% retrace (wave 2?) on the DOW & SPX after what passes as 5 waves up off yesterday’s low. But as aah has stated, it could be an ultimately bearish C wave off yesterday’s low as part of an expanded flat. We’ll have to wait ’til Monday to find out. Nice and safe weekend to all.

      • aahmichael says:

        I mentioned the expanded flat count to Soul in the past few days, but the problem with that count is that you have to say that wave 1 upward ended on 5/22, when I know it really ended on 5/14 as an abc. So, I just don’t think that count is valid. Also, all waves in a contracting EDT have to be zigzags, and today’s retracement came back too far to qualify as b of 3.

      • Billy says:

        FTSE doing the best of the rest. Only retraced 37% from the its May ATH to its recent low and currently down only 24% from the ATH. Needles to say there have been better indices to short. That’s what breaking away from the self seeking Eurocrats does for you and counter to what all the politicians said would happen. It’s not just the weaker currency as the DAX, CAC and other Eurozone indices have a similar benefit from a similarly weaker Euro.
        The DAX and CAC are really starting to add to the bearish case. DAX futures are currently sitting at the 62% retrace level but have already dropped as low as 74%. CAC futures are sitting at 52% having gone as low as 59%. A full retrace and then some is possible. I have the same bear count for both these indices, currently in, or completed today with a truncation, c of 4 of iii. The bullish count would be c of 4 of C however that implies this drop is a correction but the preceding advance was only 3 waves so that was a correction itself. The other possibility is a triangle but both these would be in the C wave of the triangle whereas Mr Caldaro has SPX already in the E wave of the triangle and just about done.

        • mcgcapital says:

          FTSE is a very concentrated index, top 8 stocks are nearly half the index. High weighting to commodities and 2/3rds of revenues in overseas currencies as lots of big multinationals list in London as it’s Europe’s financial capital. So it’s not overly affected by what’s going on in the UK. We have a perma dove running the Bank of England but Carney leaves next year, some of the other members of the Monetary Policy Committee are much more hawkish. Sterling is not far off all time lows on a trade weighted basis, and there’s clear negative correlation with FTSE given how much revenue is derived overseas. I still think we will reach a deal with the EU as it’s politically unpalatable for us not to so expect May to fold on some issues. That should see the Brexit risk premium drop out over time. That plus a more hawkish BoE means I think sterling rallies.. I’m not sure vs USD though as the dominant trend at the moment is USD strength. So what I’m saying is, at the moment everything is going FTSE’s way… low sterling, high oil (may go higher but high vs recent trading range) plus there are a number of defensive stocks which do well when bond yields fall, which they have been doing. If those factors reverse it will probably struggle relatively. I’d also say as a price index, it’s natural it underperforms vs Dax and US indices. FTSE has a big dividend yield (c.4%) while Dax is a total return index and US indices have smaller divi yields (c.2%). So 3% capital appreciation pa would get you to the long run average return of 7% pa overall which is only 200 or so points a year. It’s a common misconception that it’s a bad laggard over recent decades but when you include the divis it’s not too dissimilar to US market returns. The other European markets are more directly affected by the trade war so makes sense they’ve been struggling.

          As for current price action on FTSE I wouldn’t have it down as being bullish, all looks corrective to me. FTSE tends to move in impulsive rally legs for 5-6 weeks then has lengthy corrective periods. We basically bottomed in March, then rallied in a straight line to a new ATH (7900) 100 points above the January one based almost purely on sterling tanking and oil flying. Since then, we corrected in a straight line to 7600, which was the trading range breakout from last year, then rallied and made another lower high at the January high (7790s). Then back to 7490. We’ve for the most part being doing 1-2 days up then 1-2 days down for 6 weeks now, making lower lows and highs along the way. Just my feel is that if we were going to go to 7900-8000+, we’d have held that 7600 retest and rallied off there. The fact that we haven’t and keep trading either side of it is a worry (for bulls). This level of extreme vol where we rally 100-150-200 points then give it all back is usually a precursor of a bigger move down coming. I’m not sure at what point you’d get a clean move lower, I thought under 7600 but it’s been more messy than that. A waterfall should be obvious when it happens, so until then it’s still a case of selling the rallies and getting out on the downside pivots and going long for a bounce if things stabilise.

  6. E says:

    Alright, so I was too impatient again. 2667 Monday. 🙂

  7. fotis2 says:

    ES another shot at joining trend down 4hour
    https://invst.ly/7vwgf

    • Anne Day says:

      So it is cautiously optimistic 🙂

      • soulsurfer says:

        Always 🙂 There are no guarantees and that’s why one always must have stops in place. But on the other hand you’ll wait forever to enter a trade if you want 100% certainly from the market….

    • micky says:

      Arnout thanks, I always appreciate your analyses, but I

      • micky says:

        ..wonder why ..when one is doing well, why sell a service as well? or does it mean its all theoretical and cannot be trusted to trade?You catch my drift?

  8. Page says:

    Buy the dip Sell the rip will be the strategy until November.

  9. Lee X says:

    Have a good weekend Tony , thx

  10. Billy says:

    Put/Call ratio on 6/15 was 0.44, the lowest in the last 3 years and indicating extreme optimism. In January 2018 it was 0.45, the second lowest. As at 6/13 investment managers allocation to stocks was 100% (all in), the second highest level in 11 years. In January 2018 it was 118%. Market debt is at ATHs. So the set up “appears” to be there for a larger decline but only the market knows.

  11. alexh110 says:

    SPX could make a slight new high today and set up an hourly -D.
    Think the first trading day of next week will be bearish; but then higher for the rest of the week.

    • Thanks Alex,
      Next week is likely a low volume affair; please keep us informed about the pattern symmetry you have recently mentioned. 9-10 days up, then down et cetera.

      • alexh110 says:

        Will do.
        Looks like the decline has already started today; but I think it’ll be short-lived.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Wow did you see the market plummet on that news!!!

      • tommyboys says:

        LOL – the hyperemotional left will be looking yet for the next panic/fear once the media begins highlighting tariff talk per what it is – negotiation. Once the next narrative begins they can fear monger on something new again. Illegals at border caused a small dust up but the haters need something with a bit more meat – like taxes or NK nuclear war. Can hardly wait for the next narrative – Supreme Court Justice maybe? T R U M P,
        T R U M P, T R U M P 🤐

  12. vivelaamo says:

    I know it’s too early to get excited but today feels like one of them rally’s that every one try’s to short on a hint of a reversal but it just keeps going up. Next week should be very interesting.

    Have a good weekend all. Enjoy the weather those in the UK. Gonna be another scorcher.

  13. gary61b says:

    ES has hit its 2744.75 Hwb short setup from 2796/2693.5.

  14. mcgcapital says:

    Looks quite like end of March quarter end.. huge ramp some of which was given back by the close, then big drop at the start of April. I’m not sure what happens next week though with the US holiday and NFP.

  15. Ashley says:

    Trying a short at 2742, stop 2750ish, target 2677 =)

  16. fotis2 says:

    Dollar close bellow 94.20 short term weakness to 92.45 61.8 at 91
    https://invst.ly/7vtp4

  17. On One hour chart we have an extended 5th wave up from the 2699 low. Two things stand out. One: this move will be over before the day is out and an attempt to hover near the highs of day will fail before the day is out. TWO: a great Put purchase for fast returns once this wave rolls over.

    July 1st, 6th and sometime early July all four countries will implement tariffs. USA, Canada, EU, China. Yes I can see why the PPT slowed this sucker up. Trying to dry out the bearish bets will not work. in fact it will do the opposite. At these absurd levels greed takes over and a flood of selling will cause the cascading event i have been waiting for. The market is currently propped up simply because the damage done by tariffs will first be felt overseas. they must be creating an inflow to US equities. Anyone have this data?

    The dollar drops big every time stocks rally but the dollar keeps marching higher still. Imagine the world running toward US for safety and then realizing it will affect them also.

    2748 was a great call. How fast it retraces from there will determine if we are still in a major corrective phase. Can the market hold up till after July 4th?

      • fionamargaret says:

        …maybe buy TVIX…

        • vivelaamo says:

          Trying to cut down on chocolate 😉

        • fionamargaret says:

          …TVIX was in a sequence which was at a low when suggested…49 + …ended the day 52.77.
          The index sequence patterns showed the strength was not going to hold, thus TVIX seemed a safe suggestion.
          More $ on oil…still long. x

          • fionamargaret says:

          • fionamargaret says:

            TVIX has a different sequence each day, and when the market is going down, velocity contributes to its actions.
            When I suggest it, I usually mention what to expect …up to 61/62 was the last time…+8 on the day…and if one also shorted the indices….$$$
            This time the market was going higher, but going to fail, so suggested TVIX at the low part of the sequence….and shorted the indices when they started going down….
            I never hold TVIX overnight.

            • fionamargaret says:

              …and oil I held through “target met” at not only 70.02, but also 70.95, right up to where we are now, because the numbers were overlapping in the sequence, suggesting a breakout quite a bit higher…did quite well…and I hope everyone else did too….x

  18. Stock tip:Buy Medical Supply Company (MSC)due to the amount of whiplash cases being diagnosed,caused by market moves the last few days.How the market can reverse after a day,when it was up to 2746 and intraday fall to 2699 (on the lows)at the close,and get 37 points back after that,shouldn’t really happen.That was a bearish day.Yet,they did it again.Funny how they always have a +div sitting there after a selloff to bail them out.I always have wondered why that little squiggle on RSI can move SPX 40 handles.
    Anyways,GDX is doing what it had to–reacted to the +div(for a change)with a rally.Maybe we get 5-10%?Good luck all.

    • GDX also got above its 10 and 20 d (22.07,22.13)Must stay above those.Next step–exceed 22.24,then its up to 22.74 and hopefully more after that.GL all.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …Toronto is closed on Monday….maybe decreased volume on the golds….
        I do like your goodnight message…nice summary.x

  19. alexh110 says:

    Exited a couple more of my longs. The risk of a sharp retrace is quite high, due to the hourly MACD IHS. It ought to form a second right shoulder to match the two shoulders on the left of the head.

  20. phil1247 says:

    chris

    if you took the CL long trade
    i dont know if i am going to hang around too long on a friday …. LOL

  21. alexh110 says:

    We could see an IHS reversal pattern develop on SPX, with a 2746 high followed by a dip back to 2700(ish). That would be an odd-looking pattern, but possible with the recent chop suey.

  22. E says:

    I’ll be brave today and go for an early morning market call. Gap up then straight down to 2667. 🙂

    • Anne Day says:

      If a significant amount is involved, this requires a very steely nerve, to say least. Above and beyond us mortals 🙂

  23. mcgcapital says:

    China will be the cause of the next recession. Sounds like their economy is slowing already and think Trump will inadvertently cause some damage there with the trade talk which will effect the global economy. System is fragile, the market is telling us there’s a problem with the price action we’ve had all year. Given they keep everything on the low down then it will only hit the media once there are serious problems over there. Would be interesting to know whether Deutsche Bank has much exposure to Chinese debt, would explain a lot

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.ig.com/uk/indices-news/-2015-all-over-again–180629.amp

    • mjtplayer says:

      China has the same problem that Europe has, and EM, and the US: too much debt

      Rising rates are the problem, and it’s only just begun. Wait till the ECB stops buying debt via QE, it will get much worse in Europe…

      • Anne Day says:

        ECB will keep ANNOUNCING stopping buying debt via QE, but it is all talks. Don’t fall for it.

    • jobjas says:

      China already in recession ; Shanghai return for the last 20 years turned negative this week.

  24. phil1247 says:

    CLQ8

    the easy money has been made
    still bullish but key levels are 72.20 for failed breakout
    and 71.20 for failure of daily extension long

    • schizo1688 says:

      thanks phil, i’ll wait for $71.20

      • phil1247 says:

        welcome schizo

        arent you glad you waited today?
        i see ed wave 5 top now in CL
        came within 3 cents of target ……….. normal front run

        be patient and we will get a nice swooooooosssssshhhhh down soon

  25. phil1247 says:

    mjt

    re: euro
    nice bounce this am
    but has not done enough yet to turn the tide and still looks to need a new low ….
    good enough for me to cut exposure to long tho ..

    • mjtplayer says:

      I have no position at the moment, patiently waiting for the Euro to bounce so I can re-short. Ideally, I’d like to see 1.20-ish

  26. phil1247 says:

    ES
    as discussed yesterday
    if 2715.5 ext short was broken above
    expect a retrace up to retest the short from highs,…
    so far we have retested 2737 ( oval) the 38 % retrace
    the full retrace short up at 2760 ( .618 level)
    is the risk to being short until the long from lows fails

    thats why i am not interested in shorts unless
    the long from lows fails … currently at 2710 es

  27. mcgcapital says:

    I still think this doesn’t look bullish for the medium term as we’re going up and down aggressively over and over again. That says to me that eventually there will be a break lower. That being said, FTSE has made a higher high which is constructive. A break and hold of 7700 would help to stop the sell offs taking hold in the short term, but I’m thinking it won’t manage it. Just playing the pivots, that’s all you can do. Despite the downtrend you can’t short and hold when there’s a 100-200 point rally every other day

  28. quickrick38 says:

    Quite a few times when I’ve see the ‘experts’ get a count wrong, it’s always because the didn’t go back far enough to start the count.
    Weekly silver:

    • quickrick38 says:

      Note the wave 4 label is one possibility the other gets quite convoluted and while I could take a stab at it…then I’d have the local critic chewing me a new one…no thanks. It’s just too bad we have to put up with that kind of crap on this site.
      Below is the 30min chart where I’m looking for one more low then a significant retrace. This could well turn out to be wave 1 of 5 down.

      Good luck all.

      • jobjas says:

        commenting as I consider this site as primarily a learning and sharing site .
        first chart I would count 1 2 i ii (1) as a leading diagonal ending in (1) with (2) as the wave 2 retrace ; 3 as wave 3 ; 4 as wave 4 and wave 5 to be completed.

  29. CampFreddie says:

    Seeing great price action around their respective long term trendlines on many global equity mkts. This could be it, or very close to full on late cycle major rally action in major mkts globally incuding Pm’s Agriculture, Energy and Base metals. Positioned accordingly. Aimho. Glta.

  30. vivelaamo says:

    Looking at Dow to break the down trend line and get above 200 dma before getting bullish again. Stochs will also turn positive and last 2 times this happened from oversold levels there was a significant rally.

  31. ECB pulled some kind of sleight-of-hand act with the Euro.Dollar reversed from over 95 to 94.50ish,SPX futes jumped,gold turned positive.Easy peasy to move markets.I read a little about it and its one of those tricks they pull on occasion.See how long it lasts.

  32. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  33. stcoleridge says:

    Beware of liquidity demand at tomorrow’s close and I believe Monday is a QT day. Also we are in a quiet period which means no buybacks until after earnings. Other than that it’s infinity and beyond, oh until it’s not.

  34. Weekly chart for whole year. this is the third longest drop. The prior 2 were steep 2 week events dropped at least 200 SPX points. this one a third of that. This one is already in week 3. Current drop of 12 days didn’t have one back to back upside move. Didn’t have upside day higher than previous days drop. Will tomorrow break this trend? We are in the zone of corrective period between 21 and 24 weeks. In week 22.

    China just slashed tariffs to Asian countries. Who would have thought our allies boycott our products and make deals with China. EU and Asia have. Great long term plan to make sure China accelerates it position in the world stage.

    Pre-market futures are once again pushing this sucker as high as it will bear.

    • Did I mention correlation between Trade War and health of market? Only kidding. I tried to make a similar esoteric remark in 2016 with consumer discretionary income to no avail. I am the Rodney Dangerfield of market prognosticators.

  35. stockop says:

    i think this may have been the dip everyone was waiting for. tomorrow will be a big tell. w3 action up? or more chop? not going to pretend to have finessed the past few months (didn’t sell the massive rips, RIP HAL), but i had buying power today at the lows and added on the way up. i think bears need to be extremely on edge. i went bear last night and caught my bad habits just in time this morning. one of the highest probability signals out there! reminded me of how i felt on May 17, 2017 when only “idiots” would be buying.

    time to take a stab at the miners? are we actually in late cycle or does that no longer include the metals? massive support coming up in the futures, risk/reward is looking nice in the miners. probably a perfect time to strangle, but who likes cutting the profit potential in half?

  36. jobjas says:

    no bear postings today ; they will be all back tomorrow full swing !

    • mjtplayer says:

      If we get a right shoulder. I covered my Euro shorts expecting a bounce, now I’m not sure we’ll get one. Tomorrow’s close in the Euro is critical

      • fionamargaret says:

        Maybe currencies from EEM will find their way to the perceived safety of the $US…and then there is Europe…and DB…
        Nice to hear from you MJT…xx

      • fotis2 says:

        I recollect you did post the euro possible H&S if we close above wensday high good chance of a bounce to 1.193

  37. jobjas says:

    posted yesterday that a sub wave needed to complete which probably could happen in the futures market with another 10 point drop – happened as predicted and rebounded / check futures market in 15 min frame if any one want to confirm . (no more charts , its just a braggers group here )
    expect another drop of around 30 points to complete D of wave 5 ED

  38. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX… I hedged my 2778 short on Tuesday at 2709 and placed a buy order at 2690 as I haven’t had time this week to follow the market closely, but was expecting some sort of consolidation/rebound, which seems to have started today. Unfortunately SPX bounced without me on board as it only managed to get to 2692. It’s ok, I just wanted to play the bounces as well but they are counter-trade now so I won’t chase SPX up.
    What’s next imho is a 5 to 10 trading days of back and forth between 2700 and 2760/70 before resuming the slide.
    Supporting this view is the Daily cycle which was mature for a bottom at day 39 today. If today’s high is taken out tomorrow that would make a swing high indicating a new Daily cycle just started. I’m expecting said cycle to be bearish though, meaning not taking out 2791 and definitely taking out 2692 after the aforementioned period of 5 to 10 trading days.

    Will unhedge my 2778 short once the cycle turns down again, and very probably will try to add to it on the way down.
    Couldn’t play it exactly the way I wanted this week, loaded with the work that still pay the bills lol. But will have more free time next couple of weeks and will try to play both sides as there will be big spikes up in the way down. Obviously will be nimble on the long side and heavy on the short side.

    Besides the Daily cycles there’s some probable harmonic patterns at play and my own EW count which is still playing nicely. Will talk about those 2 next week when I have some free time. Until then 🙂

    P.S. Patience still is and will be the name of the game for 2-3 more months. Please don’t expect another 1-2 week sell-off like Feb, that’s done and gone. Current wave C will be very difficult to trade as some in here have already started to realize.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Typo: it should read that I’ll try to play both sides in the next 2 months.
      The next two weeks will probably be more like range trading than big spikes so not very interested in trading those now that I couldn’t get in at the short term bottom.

  39. It’s set up foe a massive Friday Monday decline. Will see. Short from 2721

  40. CampFreddie says:

    The little trade tiffs and other ‘Dick’ comparison nonsense should be over soon, but this very bullish chart tells us all we need to know. Aimho.
    S&P 4xhours cont.

  41. xuwu992000 says:

    @ The 30+ point STRONG rebound I mentioned yesterday has materialized. From 2692 to 2724, a 32 handle (perfect 61.8% retrace). I played some calls this morning, but unloaded them a bit earlier at 2713.

    @ The juicy part of this decline leg is fast approaching. Be patient! 80% of the market moves uses only 20% of the time.

    • E says:

      Can you count 5 waves up today? It looks to me like it could go up some more before dropping. Is your target also 2592 for wave 3?

    • Anne Day says:

      >>but unloaded them a bit earlier at 2713

      This is unfair to yourself!

      When did you get in? I got in around 10:36am and got out about 3:10pm.
      What a ride! Hugs and kisses.

      • xuwu992000 says:

        I got in at the dead bottom around 2693 (spy 271 calls) and unloaded half around 2713 and another half at 2717. I had to watch world cup, so not paid too much attention here.

  42. E says:

    My bearish chart looks even worse now.
    It looks like we are in minor 3 down.
    minute i dropped from 2791 to 2692.
    C wave of correction is still in progress.
    minute iii will take us below 2600. This could unfold in a single massive wave like February, or sub-divide into five waves.
    At that stopping point we will determine whether the bull market resumes or if we are indeed in a bear market.
    Bear market->sub 2450
    Bull market->new ATH
    Good luck!

  43. Lee X says:

    To all fellow posters with 30+ years experience
    Make sure you take breaks from those screens guys and walk , run and lift ect……we’re dropping like flies the last several years here at the CME

    Cheers !

  44. While all EW purist insist trade wars are just the excuse for a selloff I can tell you that Canadians are boycotting our goods. Wait till China asks it’s citizens to do the same. I guess by now most know it’s a foregone conclusion that Trade wars are here to stay and will get much worse before it gets better. So, why would anyone assume a rally of any sort can be sustainable? The dollar is breaking out also. Playing the daily moves makes sense. The silence by EU and China is deafening. I suppose round 2 is about to be seen. This match will go the distance.

    So where are we in the EW scheme of things? 2715 has been exceeded so I guess its on a bullish run from here. To 2748? Well anything’s possible. me, I know logic will prevail as it has in early 2016. Impossible to have a bull market in a world wide trade war dispute. Anyone want to challenge me on this? So if the given, trade wars, are here to stay how is it possible we stay in a rally mode? Tis a puzzlement.

    Million dollar question is when does the market realize this? We have not seen one panic day yet. very controlled moves. Till that day occurs you can assume the market will meander in a slow deterioration fashion. This is day 12 already? Week 22 of correction? I love symmetry in charts. The weekly chart pattern suggests on a closing basis we will see a bottom around 2500. Just marrying the trajectory of the prior 2 lows into a tangent crossing in the next 2 weeks. Obviously if the final low is longer than 2 weeks out it will be even lower. Pretty chart pattern so far. it suggests no weekly rise and a steady drop till it gets to the finish line.

    • Anne Day says:

      Gary,

      Not agreeing with all of your views. But I feel that you strive to be logical in your postings.
      Your million dollar question is really interesting. And many people (including myself) are asking the same one. How could the market be SO calm?

      There is a fortune teller not far from where I live. I am thinking about paying her a visit
      this evening. Let’s see what the tarot lady is going to say.

  45. gary61b says:

    close spx at 2712

  46. Interesting that GDX is hanging in there,up .46% with gold down$8 and DXY up.Maybe 1240 on physical is being factored in by GDX.Goldfingers crossed.Later all.

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