Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening and rally, DOW +197

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported higher. The market gapped up to SPX 2707 at the open. It had closed at SPX 2698 yesterday. The rally continued, with small 2-4 point pullbacks, until the SPX hit 2726 at 1pm. The market pulled back to SPX 2714 by 2:30, and then tried to rally again. The market then rallied to SPX 2723 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.95%. Bonds rose 5 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow export/import prices at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second time this week. The SPX then cleared the 2717 level noted in recent reports. With today’s rally the triangle becomes the preferred count of the three we have been tracking. Triangle: D wave resistance at the 2731 pivot and around 2750, then a drop below 2600. Double three: b wave resistance at the same levels, then a drop to around 2550. Ending diagonal Int. v: choppy activity higher continues, forming a rising wedge, and completing at new all-time highs. Regardless of the final wave pattern still expecting the SPX to make new all-time highs this year. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at the highs, then backed off some in the afternoon. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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649 Responses to Thursday update

  1. gary61b says:

    ES levels 2713 and 2716 have not been hit yet when price consolidates it has a tendency to hit every level of significance, possibly a revisit before a push lower

  2. looking for 2684-2686 by tomorrow, see what happens there. good luck all

  3. SPYtrader says:

    Phil, I will take 1000 posts from you over any post from the moron Trump Haters: Holly/Gary and AAH. So keep posting all day!!!

  4. lunker1 says:

    Get well soon Tony

  5. learnedmylesson25 says:
    I’ll save you time–$1300 on a closing basis(though I’ve never heard of this guy).Later all.

  6. alexh110 says:

    If 2704.30 support fails, does that open the door to the 2656 pivot?

  7. phil1247 says:


    what NEWS caused all this ?

    did i miss it ?

    • 10 year hit a 7 year high? No biggie. Dollar spiking up again but no biggie. I mentioned BOTH and you told me the market doesn’t care. Trade Wars? tell me what has been decided? Will this 18th show section 301 restrictions? Do YOU know what TRUMP will do?

      You really are a piece of work. You deny anything can move the market but instead it moves for no reason or some preordained reason like it’s a religion and the only truth is faith without knowledge because it’s from a higher power.

      Gee yet another coincidence 7 year high HUH?

      Third highest price to earnings Household net worth share of personal disposable income at a new all time peak. It surged since 2016 when “I” discussed it.

      Silly stuff like that. But this is just a pause that refreshes. NEW HIGHS!

      • phil1247 says:

        i dont mind as my PST is going thru the roof

        please give us a TYX breakout quick because my TBT is lagging

        NEWS… what news ?

      • I still see minimum 2530’s but most likely low at 2330’s area. I still see a rally off this correction to meet or break old highs. BUT timeline is shrinking fast. The 50 percent haircut (minimum) from all time highs should start in late 2019 or early 2020. I don’t know how that violates the EW rule but like all things EW seems to adapt and find a way to accept it.

        As I speak being down 21 SPX points means nothing and could very easily be reversed in coming days. I had a timeline and pattern that seems to indicate more damage right here.

      • kingfrogcash says:

        The yield on the 10 year is due to Retail Sales and NY Index, see CNBC. Facts instead of political folly.

        • I mentioned many times before. Absolute high and major resistance is 3.11% Hit 3.09 today. If it stalls crisis averted. if it breaks above 3.11 watch out! But hey, nothing but Phils method is valid. he always has the answers even when we hit a SEVEN YEAR HIGH he pretends it’s just coincidence. Got it PHIL! I do wonder why “I” was so obsessed with that causing problems? It’s called supply and demand. Basic economics 101. Competition is the name of the game. Bonds are giving stocks a run for their money.

      • csonkabull39 says:

        Capital flows around the world. Higher interest rates are good for stocks. The dollar is spiking because it’s the only game left on this Earth. The dollar will go above 165 by
        year-end 2021, and carry stocks higher with it.

      • tommyboys says:

        Higher rates still PLENTY bullish as they’re rising due to increasing economic activity. At some point there will be an inflection point but in keeping with what I preached in 2010/2011,2012 etc… it’s much higher than 3%. Prolly 4.5-5.5% range. Stop your panicking.

    • H D says:

      What a cute couple you dudes make. Neither of you have a shred of self control, spam continuously, both starved for attention, AND can’t follow Tony’s post rules. Get a room or preferably a different blog. :mrgreen:

  8. If this is an ES bear flag on a 30 min then it would measure in the area of the 50dma and the 20dma at around 2678 on the daily chart. “IF” being the key word.

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