Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2663. After a gap up opening Monday the market rallied to SPX 2683. On Tuesday it pulled back to SPX 2655. Then it rallied for the rest of the week, reaching SPX 2733 on Friday, and closing at 2728. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.35%, and the NDX/NZ gained 2.70%. Economic reports for the week were nearly all positive. On the downtick: consumer credit. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, export/import prices, plus the budget surplus rose. Next week’s reports include industrial production, the NY/Philly FED, and retail sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

After a 10-month uptrend from March 2017 to January 2017, the market pulled back and has spent the past three months in a relatively wide trading range. The first selloff into a February low looked like the correction could have ended. It did not, as the uptrend that followed was quite choppy. Then after a retest of that low in early-April that opportunity arose again. But so far the same reaction in this uptrend: choppy action. This unfortunately allows for a number short term counts. We have been tracking three, which will be noted below.

In the meantime the early-2016 (five Intermediate wave: one Major wave) bull market continues to unfold. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Int. iii then divided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the falloff 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. After that there was the lengthy 10-month Minor wave 5 uptrend, which ended in January 2018 and completed Int. iii. Int. wave iv has been underway since then. When it concludes Int. v should take the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Sorry, only managed to get this much done over the weekend before another trip to the hospital. Back at home now. Will try the get the Tuesday update done.


About tony caldaro

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49 Responses to Weekend update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    As we look setup for some kind of pb. What do people normally use a s trigger to go long again?

    Non DH method’s please as I think we all know what DH looks for by now. 🙂

  2. ttthakur says:

    Sir, for health problems,try Level Arms Swinging Excercise known as Ping Shuaishou in Chinese. I give below the links explaining in details about the excercise and its benefits:https://swinghandexercisepingshuaigong.blogspot.in/.

    Best Wishes, Sir.

  3. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks and love to Tony……and everyone xx

    • fionamargaret says:

      A fantastic interpretation of Prokofiev….again their ages were similar, and Trifonov captures the spirit of this rather difficult piece in an almost effortless manner..wonderful x

      • NEWBIE says:

        Fiona, I been asking you for days about your uvxy target. Is it a secret?

        • fionamargaret says:

          Newbie, I have answered this question for you previously the best way I know how.
          UVXY is not a stock… more like a condition…an extraneous factor.
          It has to have momentum for me to receive a pattern of numbers that I can work with.
          In a stationary mode, I can tell you UVXY suggests 8, and VXX suggests 41…both are above these numbers at the moment.
          Now add momentum (velocity) to the mix, and I can pick up on the sequence, just as I managed to achieve the twice I caught the anomaly in the algorithm.The result is always different.
          I hope this helps…I did say I would help when conditions presented.

          • fionamargaret says:

            I did spend about 6 months just playing VXX, just for the interesting aspects….
            Maybe we are below not above the suggested numbers for UVXY and VXX, but that is not really relevant except in certain circumstances….but that is another episode.

  4. chairman67 says:

    Cheers Tony and all the best.

  5. 123 abc says:

    Good to hear from you Tony, hope you are well, best wishes.

  6. Emoluments clause – Take that sucker down. 500 billion towards a them park for trump Tower, residences, and Golf Couse as he turns his 2 year pledge of hate for China into a love fest. National security is a joke and this president is a traitor to America. ZTE is a national security issue of the upmost importance. ” ZTE has close ties with China’s government, and U.S. officials have raised concerns that its phones and other devices could be used as surveillance tools against Americans.”. BUT Trump gets the theme park. that’s fair. Who cares if China gets all our secrets? Who cares if we go to war? How cares about anything as long as I get mine!

    No one seems to care about anything unless it personally affects their own pocketbook? Shameful. I dare anyone to excuse this behavior. What has this country come to? Not one GOP member will even question this outrageous behavior. National Security and espionage?

    I guess this topic upsets too many people because of my fake news. Can’t defend such a reprehensible act so I guess I will get the “it’s business as usual”. BUT IT IS NOT. NOT HERE UNTIL TRUMP THAT IS. Sold YOU out for a theme park. Now that’s funny! But Trump must have been very patient waiting a whole 72 hours to reverse his decision on ZTE.

  7. merovix says:

    Multumesc foarte mult,Toni !
    Sanatate multa si toate cele bune.

  8. Ashley says:

    Thanks Tony for the update and take care!!!

  9. chrisk44342 says:

    Ah, good to hear from you TC!

  10. phil1247 says:


  11. kvilia says:

    Why so much hope in up up and above? 10 years of expansion, May, crappy sideways action, dollar is going up yet everyone’s calling for new highs. Just why? If anything, weekly short 61% was defended at 2742, so this leg down should last more than one day. We shall see tomorrow. Looking for at least 2600sh.

  12. good luck and thanks

  13. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #EURUSD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  14. scottycj1 says:

    Health first…..

    Nice Bull Flags on 30 and 60 min SPX charts. Cit today looks like a low. 4 hr, daily and weekly Algos all in buy…..looks higher here.

  15. NEWBIE says:

    Gap down overnight, mr. market did not wanna let Bulls stops at 2700 save them from the carnage that is coming.

  16. Tony, take it easy. We’re praying and hoping for you. Rick

  17. NEWBIE says:

    Tony C, glad your back home. Take Care!

  18. Xy Z says:

    Thanks Tony. You had many of us worried for a while. Glad all is OK. Would it be too intrusive to ask what the issue is?

    Regards from the other side of the pond.

  19. Glad to hear from you. Forget about us, your health is the only thing you should be concerned with.

  20. Theodore Lerts says:

    Xu Wu, what can I say? I told you so. Your counts are thoroughly messed up. But your turn dates are good, so you are doing something right. You just need to refine the process. I see you changed your tune from a high to now waiting for a low tomorrow? You know what that means. Big bounce tomorrow.

    • phil1247 says:

      agree theo

      all the boys need to do overnite
      is pop it above 2716 to lite the short squeeze fuse

      • But if it turns down HARD Phil will profit anyway. he talks bullish but secretly buys those Puts to throw everyone off. He doesn’t want so many people following his plan because of the HUGE imbalance those trades would cause. He is a living GOD. Up/Down, sideways, to da moon one minute and the next buying for a deep drop. Funny I must be confused since he did show me his trade for the downside but I guess he only talks up the bullish side and doesn’t bet or lose money on that. No, he expects a squeeeez for the loooongest time but sits on his hands not trading for it. Imagine always expecting a short squeeze but never getting caught on the wrong side of the trade. the man lives up to his status as King of his craft.

        QUESTION: Has anyone actually caught this living god state he made a bad bet?

        • phil1247 says:


          as i told you before
          i dont give a rats rectum what your trades are
          they do not add money to my account

          learn DH and you will learn how to trade
          instead of trying to trade NEWS .. LOL

  21. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Rest first; be well, long and strong.

  22. bolderbob says:

    Hope you are doing much better now Tony! We all hope for a Bull Market in your health!!

  23. phil1247 says:

    thanks Tony

    and thank God

  24. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony, and be well! Thinking of you.

  25. good sleep,rest and health- , strength -preservation Tony!!

  26. K.I. says:

    Good to see that you are back!

  27. Page says:

    Outstanding …. Thanks Tony.

  28. Lee X says:

    Cheers Tony !

  29. lunker1 says:

    Welcome back Kotter!

  30. xpto31 says:

    Welcome Tony!!!!!

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