Weekend update


The holiday shortened week started at SPX 2732. The market gapped down on Tuesday, traded down to SPX 2707, then rallied to 2748 by Wednesday. Another pullback took the SPX to 2698 by Thursday. Then the market rallied to close out the week, at the high of the week, SPX 2748. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.65%. Economic reports were sparse and mixed. On the downtick: existing home sales. On the uptick leading indicators, plus jobless claims were lower. Next week’s economic highlights: FED chair Powell’s congressional testimony and Q4 GDP (est. +2.5%).

LONG TERM: uptrend

After a ten month Minor wave 5 uptrend the market sold off for two weeks, losing nearly 12%. Its biggest decline in two years. Overall the decline was only a 38.2% retracement of the entire Intermediate wave iii. Quite a common retracement level – nothing unusual. At the low there were daily positive RSI divergences across all 4 major indices, oversold conditions on the weekly RSI, and even a positive RSI divergence on the SPX hourly chart. The typical downtrend low indications.

Overall the Major wave 1 bull market count remains the same. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Intermediate iii then subdivided. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Then Minor wave 5, Intermediate iii, completed in January. Thus far it looks like Intermediate iv completed in February at SPX 2533.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

After the zigzag low at SPX 2533 the market rallied strongly and hit 2754 just one week later. This week the market consolidated after that gain ending at the high for the week. A positive sign. With a WROC already triggered it looks like the Intermediate v uptrend is underway.

With an Intermediate wave v uptrend probably underway the Major wave 1 bull market is likely a lot closer to its end than its beginning. Int. wave v could subdivide into five Minor waves, which would have been the preferred scenario if Int. iv would have only dropped about 5%. But with a 12% drop it seems a one trend Int. v is more likely.

If a subdividing Int. v was likely, then a bull market upside target might have been well into the SPX 3000’s. With only one trend, however, the likely high may not be all that impressive. If this uptrend struggles as it rises, a marginal new high may be all there is for now. If the uptrend accelerates to the upside, then SPX 3000 is easily within reach. Medium term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.


The short term count for this potential uptrend has been fairly clear thus far. A Minor wave 1: SPX 2754, a Minor wave 2: 2707-2748-2698, and a Minor wave 3 underway now. Minor wave 1 began with a +div, then topped with a -div. Minor wave 3 recently began with a +div too. Let’s see if this pattern continues.

Looking ahead. Once the 2884 pivot is cleared, the next pivot is not until 3020. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your trading!


Asian market were all higher and gained 1.3%.

European markets were mixed and gained 0.1%.

The DJ World index gained 0.4%, and the NYSE gained 0.1%.


Bonds remain in a downtrend but gained 0.2%.

Crude is also in a downtrend but gained 3.3%.

Gold appears to be heading into a downtrend and lost 1.9%.

The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.7%.


Monday: new homes sales 10am. Tuesday: durable goods, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence and FED chair Powells’ testimony. Wednesday: Q4 GDP (est. 2.5%), the Chicago PMI and pending home sales. Thursday: jobless claims, personal income/spending, ISM, construction spending, and auto sales. Friday: consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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400 Responses to Weekend update

  1. phil1247 says:


    2749 target about to be hit

    that DING! should be music to your ears

  2. from 2689-2789 is 91 points looking for a .50 retrace is 2743 a .618 retrace brings you to 2733.
    Anything under 2730 run for the hills

  3. llerias7 says:

    Still Valid!!

    • mcgcapital says:

      Lol. ‘The US government is promising to buy everything forever. How can you not make money in that environment, it’s the easiest thing in the world. Buy the dip.’

      Except now they’re promising to let what they bought run off. Sell the rips!

  4. micky says:

    if one takes whats offered and be quick about it, its like stealing

  5. Vishal says:

    SPX 2731 pivot seems to be next

  6. lunker1 says:

    es interesting battle .50 short from high and .618 long from low.

    phil caught a chunky 21″ 5 3/4 pounder yesterday at Rodman first time fishing it. plastics no shiners. gonna hit it manana. full moon thurs nite.

  7. gary61b says:

    ES maybe a B wave down to 2760 for 75% of A then c up to 2776 to finish.

    • phil1247 says:

      77 is target of long from lows today and .618 resistance todays high to low
      perfect place for the boys to park it for the nite

  8. https://northmantrader.com/2018/02/27/tech-cracks/

    I believe he mentioned something concrete. Look at QQQ-land, it’s propped by just a few FANGs + MSFT + INTC + AAPL

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      Those technical are exactly what you would expect from a fifth wave which is where we are as we head toward completion of Major 1.

  9. gary61b says:

    2773 was a nice HWB pivot

  10. Billy says:

    My expectation after yesterday’s close was that if we were in a five wave move from last Wednesday night’s lows in futures the 3rd wave in the DOW futures would likely conclude around the round number at 25800. It reached 25813. Furthermore the wave 4 retracements I expected were 260 on the YM and 35 on the ES. At the lows today those actual retracements were 272 and 33 even. Reasonably close and quite satisfactory. You may be wondering how I calculated those expected retracements. Not very complicated but I will save that for another day. The main purpose of this post is to put everyone on notice that today’s decline, as long as the lows are not taken out, is indicating that the market is acting how it should for a wave 4. You know what comes next.

  11. Gary Lewis says:

    Big buyer of SLV today and the rest of the week. Expecting it to hold here but . . .

  12. fotis2 says:

    Crude close bellow 62.3 not good=bail out time.Gold,Silver lows retest more likely.
    USDX 4hour Bullflag did play nice pending a break of 90.4 for DB to validate.
    S&P back to the DB break watching closely.

  13. micky says:

    hit 2 nd S, will buy 56 and 54

  14. vivelaamo says:

    All dips are gifts.

  15. gary61b says:

    ES 2760.5 next target and at good support. next rejection levels 2748.75 then 2736.5… Newbie wants <2700spx.

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