Thursday update

SHORT TERM: seventh straight gap opening, DOW +37

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported slightly lower. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2814, then rallied to 2825 by 10am. At 10am construction spending was reported higher, but ISM was reported lower. The market then pulled back to SPX 2818 by 10:30, before rallying to 2836 by 1pm. The market then dropped to SPX 2813 by 3:30, before bouncing to close at 2822.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.50%. Bonds slid 15 ticks, Crude rose $1.35, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls at 8:30 (est. 171k), then consumer sentiment and factory orders at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the third time this week, missed yesterday’s low by one point (2813), and then rallied to SPX 2836 in early afternoon. After that the market headed south again, hitting yesterday’s low in the last hour of trading. Double bottom? Since the week began every rally to the 2835 pivot has been sold. We now have five waves up from the SPX 2557 Minute iv low. But the last wave is kind of lopsided: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2873. This suggests the count posted on the hourly chart may be correct. And the five waves will end up as nine waves up before the uptrend ends. Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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208 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Bears are cute, until you actually meet one.

  2. Just had a terminal top at 2870 area and those are major bell ringers

    1074-2134 1060
    1810-2870 1060

    Looking for .236 retrace of entire 1060 leg for sure

  3. Bud Fox says:

    SDS…note the huge vol. spike up…..gotta be telling us, something…sooooon.

  4. Kudos to Geoffery Saut of Raymond James and Newbie for calling this correction. And anyone else who unequivocally called for a Feb decline.

  5. Bud Fox says:

    WTIC…regret, but my position is now short CL…since the early 1980’s I have
    always enjoyed a ride up, in the WTIC market. Goldmen says: $80 oil in
    6 months. Well. there goes my driving vacation. But, it si clear. Golldmen
    is wanting a Bull market in the oils for 3-6 months into the future….we’ll see.
    For now $63-66 oil, appears to be a strong top. That would also imply a
    “shorting” op that lies ahead….

  6. I think it’s a buy point stock is reacting to the past.

  7. learnedmylesson25 says:
    When it turns….Wells stock down 8% afterhours.Stock specific?Or does the market use this as an excuse to sell again.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Remember Kimble’s chart of two days ago….bank index back to where it was before the financial crisis, and it had to go through resistance or back down….

  8. torehund says:

    Sentiment update: This is as sour as sour gets. Everyone is victimized 🙂 Buy hands over fist 🙂

  9. Anonymous says:

    We should get an oversold bounce. I am long XLU looking for it to hit 53 at some point during the bounce in the indices and TLT. I do not think GLD will have enough power to take out the highs, at least this go-round. Looking for some more huge dumps on/near the opens at strategic points this month. Made a killing as I had 17 SPY puts from just below 2873 last Friday with 2884 strikes..It will become a 1929 market before it is done.

  10. Anxious for Tony’s view on this week’s movement…..Could be a simple pullback….or not..

  11. stockop says:

    bought some uvxy calls in the last 30 mins of trading. “its never too high to buy”. instead of continuing to kick myself for misreading the situation I did what experience said should work…

    DXY still looking like 87. commodities do not seem healthy right now. i think the dollar might be about to rocket launch up per phil’s count. this is both a fundamental macro belief and the charts give it viability. in a weird situation because i see the bullish outlook for the metals and commodities in general, but it almost seems too obvious… and then you add the dollar to the mix…

    i am currently hodling no better than the people in crypto lol. natgas, pleeeease be wave 2. even with a strong dollar you’re undervalued… guess that means i’ll see you at zero…

    • fionamargaret says:

      I really like NG so have a bid in for 52 (UGAZ)…my computer (which has a sense of humour) suggests 33….and BitCoin.. my computer suggests 0.00.

  12. fellow does good work, don’t want to post on TC’s weekend update so here late on friday–worth a look. Anyone else always share if you have a good one [unless it’s you-prefer not self promote]

  13. NEWBIE says:

    Best case scenario for bulls is this bottoms at 2650.

  14. 2662 is an interesting close. That could be it and we gap higher, or 2730-2735 on deck. The fact we closed on the lows makes me think we have more to go. Congrats on bears who caught this move. I thought the 2800 level would hold and as said before short spxl from the 2793 area. 29 point loss, just couldn’t hit the sell button.
    Again good luck and everyone have a nice weekend

  15. Page says:

    Let’s enjoy the Super bowl for now … we will worry about the market Monday ..
    I am expecting Philadelphia Eagles to win but never know New England has surprised so many times.

    • Pats are a 4 point favorite for a reason. Go pats

      • quickrick38 says:

        Sorry Try…but you just hit one of my nerves…nothing personal BUT…that reason is the incredibly biased refs! I have no stake in this whatsoever. I must say however that every time I watch a Patriot’s game I am completely flabbergasted at the incredible bias by the ref’s. I am not talking about any other particular team – it’s ANY team that they play. The ref’s are constantly overlooking calls against the Patriots and they are calling everything imaginable and beyond against the opposing team. It’s like some Good ‘ole boys club. It absolutely amazes me that they continue getting away with this. I love football and I like to watch the game and, I used to love watching the Patriots play because they are, afterall, a very good team; but, lately I can’t stand to watch a Patriots game because of the absurdity of the reffing. Again, nothing personal…just my observation.

        • Well your observations might be incorrect. Sounds like your bias!

          • quickrick38 says:

            If you think that…then take a look at the Super bowl…7 1/2 minutes before the half. Brady threw an intentional grounding…from the pocket with absolutely no one in the vicinity of where he threw the ball. Did the refs call it?…of course not!
            FYI, I didn’t even watch the game – but my my wife called me in to see the replay because it even pissed her off. The next play the ball changed hands…the refs tried to give it to the Patriots but even they couldn’t defeat the Philly team.

  16. captbara says:

    GDXJ – Spotted 5 waves down from last month’s highs. Anyone else see it?

  17. elmer510 says:

    Tony removed the Nano IV label, perhaps he will change the count a bit?
    Or show alternatives.
    At least the wave is not finished so far.

  18. Look for another 1 percent down on Monday
    Wow. Still long from 2793.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Vive, your beloved RUT just confirmed a downtrend.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I haven’t traded RUT since 1600 hit. It’s worth keeping an eye on around the 200 daily if drops that far.

        I’m glad we’ve had a day like this. Markets should move both ways. The one way action as profitable as it was couldn’t last forever without a correction right ? Time to be patient now and wait for very good opportunities to buy the next big rally.

        • stcoleridge says:

          Agree, need to be patient.

          • NEWBIE says:

            Viv, today was just a little of whats to come. This sort of pain will continue for months.

            • pooch77 says:

              No it wont,another week at worst

            • vivelaamo says:

              We’ll see Newb. There could be more pain but I think it will be over before you can say B wave. All it takes is a fed announcement to cut back rate hikes or something and away we go.

              Today was what corrections used to be like though and why shorting was so profitable. It’s been 2 years since a move like this Newb. A very long time.

              By the way let me know if I offend you and I’ll stop posting so your bodyguard minds his own business.

            • SPYtrader says:

              Newbie, do you think the high on Jan 26 was the high for the year?

  19. Gary Lewis says:

    kudos to the BofA call last week Happy to say that I was impressed with the 11 out of 11 track record and took action

  20. chrisk44342 says:

    2752 on spx would equal 38.2

  21. learnedmylesson25 says:

    34d hit at 2762.Anything below that,I agree means another 100 handles down.But you never know…”V” bottoms are the Feds specialty.

  22. kvilia says:

    Boom! Uptrend has just ended! ES 2760 is the target. So if that number holds, expect 60 pts bounce to sell at 2810.
    Bagholders are already in denial 😉

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