REVIEW
Quite a wild week as DJ Trump is now president-elect. The market started off at SPX 2085, gapped up on Monday, and rallied to 2147 by Tuesday afternoon. Apparently on the assumption that Clinton would win the election. After hours when results started to roll in the ES futures tanked, and hit the 5% limit down just when Trump appeared to be the winner. Then after a continued volatile overnight session, the market gapped down on Wednesday to SPX 2125 and then started to rally. The rally ran into resistance on Thursday at SPX 2182. Then the market pulled back on Thursday into Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 4.6%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9%. On the economic front, except for the election, it was a quiet week. On the downtick: consumer credit, investor sentiment and the WLEI. On the uptick: wholesale inventories and consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims both improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by industrial production, retail sales and the CPI.
LONG TERM: uptrend
Six years ago, after the 2010 election, we posted a special report: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/politics-and-secular-bullbear-markets/. Over the years our opinion didn’t change much, as this analysis was based on human psychology and historical repetitive cycles. The Saeculum conclusion was spot on. And, we even got the city correct, but not the man. We had not considered a reality TV star could carry a presidential election. That was then, this is now.
In the report we provided several links. One link describes the four turnings, which we call secular cycles, of a entire four generational Saeculum cycle. The fourth turning, which we call the Crisis secular cycle began in the year 2000, and made its presence known by the 911 event. The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up—always in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression finds a community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. In every instance, Fourth Turnings have eventually become new “founding moments” in America’s history, refreshing and redefining the national identity. In Parsons’ terms, a Fourth Turning is an era in which the availability of social order is low, but the demand for such order is high.
When the Crisis period ends it starts a new Saeculum cycle which starts with the first turning. What we call the Growth secular cycle. We are not there yet, as the transition is still underway. But we believe it just made its presence known with the election of DJ Trump – a non-politician and non-CFR member. The First Turning is a High. This is an era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, even if those outside the majoritarian center feel stifled by the conformity. In Parsons’ terms, a First Turning is an era in which both the availability of social order and the demand for social order are high.
Our long term count remains on track. We continue to believe a new bull market started in February 2016 at SPX 1810. From that low the market advance 300 SPX points, which we labeled Intermediate wave i. Then after a three wave decline to the Br-exit low at SPX 1992, which we labeled Int. wave ii, the market had a 200 point SPX rally to the 2194 all time high. After that, another three wave correction into last Friday’s SPX 2084 low. The last uptrend and downtrends we labeled Minor waves 1 and 2. With this week’s uptrend confirmation in the SPX, Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave iii should be underway.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
An interesting wave pattern has unfolded since the February SPX 1810 low. A 300 point uptrend, followed by a 200 point uptrend, separated by three wave corrections of 120 and 110 points respectively. We have not observed a pattern like this since 1984, which had several similar characteristics. With the SPX/DOW now in confirmed uptrends we should now expect another 300 point uptrend to continue the pattern.
At last week’s low, as noted, the weekly/daily RSI was at levels normally associated with downtrend lows. And the hourly RSI ended that week with a positive divergence. Since then, with this week’s rally, all of these indicators have turned positive. We also had a WROC uptrend signal. It was quite an impressive advance in the cyclicals. The growth indices are lagging somewhat, as there appears to be some rotation out of the heavily weighted growth sector into underweighted cyclical stocks. Once this rotation ends the market should move higher as a whole. Medium term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots.
SHORT TERM
Despite a volatile week the rally from last Friday’s SPX 2084 low looks quite impulsive. We have not been able to make that statement since August. At Thursday’s SPX 2182 high it looked like the rally had completed five small waves with many subdivisions: 2099-2085-2147-2125-2182. After that high the market had its largest pullback of the entire advance, dropping to SPX 2151 on Thursday. Then after a rally to SPX 2178 the market pulled back to 2152 on Friday. If our short term count is correct there is probably more sideways to downside activity ahead to complete this pullback.
We will tentatively label the SPX 2182 high as Minute wave one of this Minor wave 3 uptrend. And the current pullback as Minute wave two. We would expect the hourly RSI to get oversold, which it does quite often, when this pullback ends. Short term support is at SPX 2151 and the 2131 pivot, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were mostly higher for a gain of 1.4%.
European markets were also mostly higher for a gain of 2.1%.
The DJ World index gained 1.6% on the week.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 2.5%.
Crude continues to downtrend as well and lost 1.5%.
Gold resumed its downtrend and lost 6.2%.
The USD remains in an uptrend gaining 2.0% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Tuesday: retail sales, export/import prices, the NY FED and business inventories. Wednesday: the PPI, industrial production and the NAHB index. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the CPI, housing starts, building permits and the Philly FED. Friday: options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!
If nothing nefarious is in the works, then there’s a decent chance FANG has bottomed and thus stop being a drag on markets. Most are OS daily and have +ve divergence on MF, and tagged 233 DMA.
LikeLike
Many traders are “Velocitized” or suffer from “Relevancy” . We have been in a sideways consolidation and traders are used to the small up and down trading range. When a large advance happens traders are uncomfortable as thier recent “Relevancy” is challenged. Many just watch from the sidelines …aghast as the market just goes up and up and up—(or down and down) It just does not seem natural because the last 2 years has been sideways and the norm. A breakout is often seen as way to overbought……………….
LikeLike
Agree. It’s the standard market psychology at play.
LikeLike
Agree Scotty I suffer from that one and have missed some good setups on various instruments hoping it gets better with time/experience.
LikeLike
It’s because there is always a move to take out week longs. But in this case that move was last week.
LikeLike
Phil, I’m going to be look at uco tomorrow if cl breaks above today’s high. What about you? Almost looks like we could have fallen short of 61.8 for a 5 wave lower
LikeLike
by not hitting the target today we are in no mans land in /cl now
i will be looking elsewhere to trade
LikeLike
very interesting update Tony. If I understand correctly we are still in 4th turning, crisis, last 4 years of this? the wall of worry for your 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 up perhaps. Maybe a literal wall….
LikeLike
DRYS is in at least one of those 3s. 😉
LikeLike
HD
Think we have already entered the first turning … secular growth cycle.
Changes are still underway
LikeLike
Looking at the top 50 stocks or so on the S&P
GOOG down 2%
Apple down 3%
Microsoft Down 2%
JNJ down 2%
Wells Up 2%
Merck down 1%
Boeing up 1%
Amazon down 3%
Facebook down 3%
AT&T down 1%
JPM Up 3%
Pfizer down 1%
Walmart down 1%
Verizon down 1%
Visa down 4%
Comcast up 2%
Citigroup up 3%
Home Depot down 2%
So the Banks is the main reason the market isn’t selling off massively?? Don’t know about all of you but that isn’t a broad advance and frankly pretty f-ing scary to go long over
LikeLike
You have to make up, your own mind about SP trend.
For me, I am long OIL, for example. I see the $15-16
range as a value low, to invest for 3-12 months out.
SP500 is in a Bull trend, as I see it. With a W4 low, last
July (?) now W1 top in place, last Aug. W1 done, now a
W2 decline, likely near done as well – this then suggest (if
correct) that a strong SP rally, or W3 will soon form.
So, I like the long side of this SP market….
LikeLike
bud this is not what you said yesterday
bud67 says:
November 13, 2016 at 12:13 am
What concerns me, with the SP500 index, is the fact there
is no confirmation seen in the NYSE index pattern. Weakness,
in the NYSE index vs the SP500 — not one pattern I would chase
in the long position cat….IMO
LikeLike
Understand Phil — I used to see wave patterns, in “rigid” form.
11/13 12:13am is just such a comment. For – I now see the SP500
in a 5th wave up pattern, where 2085 now appears to be a solid low.
If correct – then the SP can go much higher.
From a EW pattern, looking for W2 low of importance. Not so sure
but, we could have seen that low in early Nov at 2085. Least, this
my most recent view. Thanks, for the comment….
LikeLike
Color me, Bullish…
LikeLike
bud67 says:
November 14, 2016 at 1:51 pm Read it…
LikeLike
Phil…in my view, 11/13/2016 at 12:13 am…is the wrong analysis for the SP500.
To restate. I am long, and not suggesting otherwise….Bud
LikeLike
Reply…the comment made 11/13 was
not correct. I re-evaluated. then restated my more Bullish view…end 5:12pm 11/14..
LikeLike
Must be crazy to go long here..
LikeLike
long what?
LikeLike
SPX
LikeLike
/es shorts and longs breaking
holding above extension long support
those are your clues fotis
good luck !
LikeLiked by 1 person
Some triangles targeting 2200-2212 short term if 2150 holds. Tough market though
LikeLike
GL Fotis, minute iii up of minor 3 up of Int iii up of Supercylce III up. What’s not to like? Might be 300 SPX points on deck.
LikeLiked by 1 person
+10
LikeLike
I have a long on CCI hourly and Dailly system just don’t believe my eyes going long at this level but whats a system if i dont follow it so ”seems” crazy
LikeLike
There is allegedly a 1T$ Stimulus on deck, game changer.
LikeLike
you are being facetious arent you HD ?
LikeLike
its in rally or die mode now
if the /es extension fails …run for the hills
LikeLike