Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW +40

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2167 close. After a bounce in the opening minutes to SPX 2165 the market started to head towards yesterday’s lows. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported higher: 91.6 v 87.2. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 2152, and then started to rally. The rally lasted until 12:30 when the SPX hit 2165 again. Then after a pullback to SPX 2157 by 3pm, the market closed at 2164.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude dropped $1.40, Gold tumbled $30, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 56.7 v 57.3, the Q4 GDP estimate remained at 3.1%, and investor sentiment dropped from 55.4% to 54.7%.

The market opened lower today resuming the pullback from the rally high at SPX 2182 that began right after the open yesterday. Thus far the SPX has put in a double bottom at 2151/52, rallied to 2178, then pulled back to 2152 again today. If our short term count is correct, it does not appear like this pullback is over just yet. May need additional follow through on Monday. Overview in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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28 Responses to Friday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Tony what are you thoughts on the RUT? it this a 3rd wave of some sort?

  2. SPX TARGET AROUND 2.195/ 2.200

    Analysis of the chart below

  3. joecthetruthteller says:

    McCellen says to expect pullback on 17th or 18th

  4. Ajay Singhi says:

    Buy SPX around 2140, SL 2125, tgt 2200. Timeframe December 1st week.

  5. Ran into this chart…fwiw.

    • phil1247 says:


      this is what i believe is happening

      remember …the dollar is in a down trend still …lower monthly highs and lows
      everyone is getting bullish on dollar FUNDAMENTALS now

      ie rates going up…
      stronger economy by
      making america great with road building

      also many see the pattern as ready to explode up but….

      it hasnt yet
      what if this huge pattern is wave A to may low
      now with dollar excitement wave B
      with crashing wave C ahead

      until / DX can break the short at 102.25
      it is bearish with target of 59…( no typo)

      also the dollar is following cycles closely
      which foretold the sharp rally from oct 7 to 21 perfectly
      weeks in advance and posted here
      now only the last major cycle remains and it turns down in feb
      so we could get a final pop in the dollar

      if this ensues a dollar at 59 cant be bad for gold
      but i dont do correlations 😉

  6. My latest non scientific non technical non fundamental analysis. I have followed Rick Ackerman’s blog and system for some time now. His bias is extreme so I always discount his reading on a possible crash and that has paid off. I have ALWAYS used him to confirm MY immediate trend assumptions when he sees a big upward move, if of course it conformed to my own. he actually called for the 1,000 DOW point move from last week before the Trump win. I bring this up because he is no extremely ecstatic to the point of declaring a bull move for the foreseeable future. He denied the last 7 year move and NOW thinks the sky is the limit for upside potential. His proprietary method is pretty darn good but like any technician it’s only as good as the unemotional unbiased observation.

    His 7 year turnaround is so shocking that I have to take notice. if we do hit the targets I proposed I would become very cautious after. Just putting this out there as my own personal “OMEN”. It is possible that the momentum leading into the election week was so strong as to not be denied. It is also just as possible that a delayed reaction to a deep stumble (might) occur soon after. Any Trump like remarks in the near future might actually be the catalyst. Who knows we live in strange times.

    I would love to hear from the technicians on this board that have not been extreme on views. Is any scenario call for a sharp drop after this current move end? My hunch and “feeling” has me very cautious after this tops. Would love to see corroboration by chartists.

    Good luck all.

    • fotis2 says:

      I trade patterns and CCI the immediate pattern on the weekly is the 3BR the bigger one behind it is the IHS if that one plays out next stop 2416 CCI surge above +100 signifies a Bullish bias(Lambert’s CCI correction system)
      The way I see it is if that weekly 3BR fails (weekly close bellow 2084)next stop mid 90s at which level if it holds would be a good place to go long.

      Personally I’m weary of this pattern as I’d like to see said pattern at the bottom of a move and not at the highs invalidation would be a weekly close bellow 1990.
      Question: do these patterns always work?NO they don’t here is a recent example of hourly CL IHS that failed I posted this chart a few days back note how it forms a descending triangle after validation my long stop was placed bellow the botom side of triangle it thereafter goes to test the shoulder fails,and down from there.


    • fbender7 says:

      With all due respect, I heartily would recommend giving up the endless and useless search for alternate chart scenarios. Too many people on this blog put their faith in big name analysts rather than in themselves. Great traders put their faith in their own observations, analysis and intuition. If you need to hold someones hand, then I would suggest there is no better guide than Tony and his work.

      I also believe, based on many of the comments on this blog, that many of you are addicted to directional trading, and that you live or die based on whether or not the market moves in the direction you hope it moves. This in commonly known as “gambling.”

      Certainly, having a general sense of the short term, medium term, and long term trends (or the probabilities thereof) can give a trader a slight edge, but it is not the main thing. In fact, some successful, professional options traders trade without doing any technical or fundamental analysis at all.

      Money management and risk management are far more important than trying to divine the direction of the next big market move.

      However, if you must use charts (and I freely admit that I do), keep it simple and take advantage of Tony’s generous and free daily and weekly analysis for guidance. Then learn some trading strategies that are not solely market-direction dependent. Nobody can predict what exactly the market will do next.

      Trying to hit a home run on every trade, in my opinion, is foolish. Better to not be greedy and simply learn to make a modest amount of money consistently week after week, month after month. As they say, “There are old traders, and there are bold traders, but there are no old bold traders”.

  7. Next week,there are no less than ELEVEN Fed governors spewing their opinions.That’s a FOOTBALL team!!Jeez.

  8. cosmos77 says:

    Thanks Tony and all.

  9. blackjak100 says:

    Official HO signal stays on the clock for 4 months. Is Tom Demark going to be correct for a change?

    • what confounds me iS trump repeatedly said we are in a bubble..that markets were absurdly over valued …every whisper of him winning sends martkets tumbling ,,,,,tues eve we collapse when it appears he wins… and we elect him..and now we say this is the most bullish event for stocks?? what am i missing?

      • captbara says:

        If you’re a technical trader you never care about any of that talk. But if you’re really in dire need of an answer, it’s because they’re waiting until the current administration is out of the office before pulling the rug. Then people can easily point back and say, “Trump is horrible, look at how the stock market plunged 30% in his first year. Everything was great under Obama”.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Looking at this ‘Back in late February and early March, DeMark called for the S&P 500 to tumble 8% to 10% to as low as 1,786’

      I’d say probably not.

    • McClellan Oscillator actually finished at +4…so was not a legit HO,from what I read.Close again.

  10. blackjak100 says:

    I agree with TC this pullback is not done so I reshorted DOW near the close after taking small profit earlier in the session

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Change a RUT chart to weekly and look a the pattern from previous ATH in 2015. What do you see? 2017 could see 1500!!!

  12. captbara says:

    A thing of beauty, this one. IHS target $250

  13. kvilia says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Continuing on GC and physical divergence, I still have little idea how it works. The talk is about having physical as Comex can be bancrupt. If anyone can explain?

  14. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for the great OEW guidance during this exhilarating election week.

  15. NEWBIE says:

    Tony, what is your target for pullback? 2131?

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