Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening on terrorist attack, DOW -41

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe markets opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9am the FHFA index was reported higher: +0.5% v +0.4%. The market gapped down to SPX 2043 at the open, it had closed at SPX 2052 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market ticked down to SPX 2041, and then started to rally. Around 2:30 the market hit SPX 2057. Then it dropped to SPX 2048 during the last hour, and bounced to 2050 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open, hit SPX 2041, then rallied to a new uptrend high at SPX 2057. Still not much upside progress since options expiration Friday: 2052, 2054, 2057, with the 2043 pivot holding support all three days. Again not much to report on the short term count, except it now looks like the 2043 pivot range only needs to be broken to get some downside activity. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum has a series of negative divergences. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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287 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    ,,anyone not having high temp ?

  2. magnus1234 says:

    Stop complaining. Dont fight the FED….even less so FED, ECB, BOJ, PBOC, BOE, RB when they act together. You can think whatever you like about their actions but they will prevail. Follow the money boys n’ girls.

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Twas the Day Before Top ……………

    Twas the day before top, when all through the street
    No volume no stirring, a bear market treat
    The buy backs were bought and bought with great care
    In hopes that St. Jamie would squash the great bear

    The bots and the bulls all nestled at top
    And dreaming of gains ignoring a pop
    And Gartman, and Kramer with fists on the table
    To buy hearts content as much as can able

    When all of a sudden the market bell rang
    It chimed and it Kilnged and it klonged and it clanged
    When up on the ticker a horrible sight
    Stocks were in red with a force that brought fright

    The full moon had come and provided the turn
    And now the sad bulls felt losses and burn
    So out the exchange window bulls peered and they saw
    Caldaro had shown them in their programs a flaw

    The moon shining bright and the bears sleeping sound
    Bears sprung from the rigging and no longer were bound
    More rapid than eagles, the bears came with vigor
    And called out by name when oil did trigger

    Now Magic
    Now Mikey, and El Mat, and A-B
    On Simple, On CN, On Valun, and RC
    Now sell and sell more and see away now
    Then watch the stocks fall and then take a bow

  4. llerias7 says:

    Could be the long awaited wave-C down OR just wave 2 that will stop at OEW1973/1956 pivots!
    That will be quite telling!…

  5. vivelaamo says:

    I’m short. Would like to see a close below the trendline and 8 day EMA before adding more.

  6. frommi2 says:

    S&P500 uptrend broken, too. Hopefully we see some downward momentum now.

  7. captbara says:

    Beary exciting!

  8. ariez5 says:

    Again, I see a real change in character. The Dow goes up and down, but all day TLT and Yen rally. Gold barely moves with them. When the Dow rallies, IWM barely moves. Breadth is bad. My best guess is that RUT has topped and SPY will churn for a while. My sense is we will selloff into the close.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Where’s Simba?

    • ibra76ig says:

      Since last September the big companies are leading the rally while the medium and small companies are leading selloff.

      • ibra76ig says:

        And that is why the NASDAQ has underperformed the DJIA,this indicates that the leadership of the market has changed in an unhealthy way.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Twas the Day Before Top

      Twas the day before top, when all through the street
      No volume no stirring, a bear market treat
      The buy backs were bought and bought with great care
      In hopes that St. Jamie would squash the great bear

      The bots and the bulls all nestled at top
      And dreaming of gains ignoring a pop
      And Gartman, and Kramer with fists on the table
      To buy hearts content as much as can able

      When all of a sudden the market bell rang
      It chimed and it Kilnged and it klonged and it clanged
      When up on the ticker a horrible sight
      Stocks were in red with a force that brought fright

      The full moon had come and provided the turn
      And now the sad bulls felt losses and burn
      So out the exchange window bulls peered and they saw
      Caldaro had shown them in their programs a flaw

      The moon shining bright and the bears sleeping sound
      Bears sprung from the rigging and no longer were bound
      More rapid than eagles, the bears came with vigor
      And called out by name when oil did trigger

      Now Magic
      Now Mikey, and El Mat, and A-B
      On Simple, On CN, On Valun, and RC
      Now sell and sell more and see away now
      Then watch the stocks fall and then take a bow

      • tony caldaro says:

        Guess ur calling the top

      • cosmos77 says:

        Excellent + 100. How-some-ever, the count still doesn’t look complete for int. c. I only count 4 minute waves for minor 5, this being the 4th. The SPX hit the bottom of the 2043 OEW Pivot (i.e., 2036) should this hold, we still can make a new uptrend high. I still love the very cleaver poem. Sorry to be the one to toss a lump of coal in your stocking.

  9. EL MATADOR says:

    BAM!!! $40 is gone….$38 on deck and SPX starting to tailgate CL

  10. phil1247 says:

    took my 2 points…..boring

    hasta

  11. johnnymagicmoney says:

    market cant sell off a half of a percent even after that enormous move even with oil down big today. The comic strip is lasting longer folks. Beginning to think the FED is doing what Japan and China is doing as if at the G20 meeting they said. BUY STOCK BUY STOCK ME THINK YOU BUY STOCK STOCK GOOD STOCK GOOD

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Lots of rare market stats the last 2 years. Here’s another one regarding ralleye

    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/03/23/chart-o-the-day-as-extended-as-it-ever-gets/

  13. Bob Sagget says:

    I recognize this is an OEW board. The following is likely a silly idea but given the majority of us have noticed and commented on the daily 10AM – 11AM “Ramp”, has anyone conducted any analysis on intraday (1, 5, 15, minute) $SPX up/down patterns before, during, and after the 2015 and 2016 sell-offs and spikes? I have all of this data in my database. I am considering looking for patterns. Was just wondering if anyone else has already gone there and they may have found.

    Obviously, daily candles will give us clear indications on the breadth of each day.

    • mjtplayer says:

      The morning ramp is from corporate buybacks. Buybacks cannot occur during the first and last 1/2 hour of trading for large publicly traded companies.

      That said, each day that goes by, more and more companies are entering the buyback “blackout period” as we move closer to Q1 earnings announcements.

      • Bob Sagget says:

        MJT – thanks. You post some good stuff here.

        Related to the above, how does the buyback calendar line-up with the January 2016 and first half of February 2016 down draft? In other words, was Jan through mid-Feb a black out period? If so, did the black out end-dates align with the “Jamie Dimon bottom?” If Jan through mid-Feb was not a black out period are you thinking the selling just overshadowed buyback buying?

        I don’t know the answer. I am interested in facts / opinions

      • ibra76ig says:

        I think the corporate buybacks not allowed since last Monday because the earning season. (I am not so sure).

      • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

        “The morning ramp is from corporate buybacks. Buybacks cannot occur during the first and last 1/2 hour of trading for large publicly traded companies.”

        Not true ! Rules have not been that way for 10yrs

    • cosmos77 says:

      Hey Bob, I’ve been thinking about doing the same thing, but I will have to compile the data before starting. If I do I will be happy to coordinate it with you. It looks like it will be a major undertaking.

  14. Trader J, I see this differently, looking at 1 hour chart of SPX.
    1810 to 1947 = wave 1
    1947 to 1889 wave 2
    Than wave 1 of 3 started and ended wit the 5 of is 5th as an ED.
    I am looking for a retrace to 1970 + or – where should start the 3rd of 3. Lower than 1950 would signify wave B has ended

  15. ABchart says:

    ES: Maybe 2028 is only the first down leg of 20 points from 2048. Retrace at 2037 max 2039. Then new down leg toward 2017/19
    Europe closed Friday and Monday.
    USA closed Friday but open Monday.

  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    well there you go everyone missed out on the buy of the friggin century………………..S&P was down 12 handles!!

    OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • blackjak100 says:

      NYAD is finally starting to point lower. The question is as TJ stated earlier, is there one more new high coming above 2057 before turn lower? Trade above 2050 (61.8%) would highly suggest there is.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        hey BJ question for ya cause I had a hard time figuring it out…………..what percent of the NYSE are energy related names? What percent are Biotech related names? Not market weight but on a nominal basis?

        • blackjak100 says:

          No idea

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            reason I ask is the bio names and the energy names got hit so hard a while ago leading the general inidices and stayed down there longer that the breadth numbers and 50 day moving average numbers could be quite distorted on their insane bounce as of late and I don’t think anyone could claim that those same energy or biotech names look like anything but bears. If you were to take out all bio and energy names from the NYSE what then would those 50 day and breadth data look like? But I cant seem to locate data on it.

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Guys might want to look at ETR and PPL ……………nice little stocks for me this year

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      furthermore isn’t TLT about to bust out of a bull flag?

      • phil1247 says:

        have t bonds to sell…..

        you want to buy from me?????

        • phil1247 says:

          spx short @ 2044

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          have enough already =)

          been buying since TLT was in the 80’s

          been a nice little long …………………….it will go higher

          • phil1247 says:

            poor risk reward /

            its lower than 2012 peak now

            scaling out of bonds
            have the cash bonds not tlt ..
            ..hoping for 132 tlt level to dump em all

            • johnnymagicmoney says:

              I disagree. I don’t have everything in shorts. I always keep some longs. I have been increasing both shorts and treasuries and utilities all year. Utilities have been exceptional and the shorts are under water a little bit. The only way hedging against my tobaccos (RAI has been a monster for me) and utilities doesn’t work is if the economy is strong and the FED raises rates multiple times and the economy keeps chugging. Then Id lose on both shorts and my interest rate sensitivity stocks but I just don’t see that happening. Even if they do raise it wont be long before they reverse course or they initiate a downturn

              • phil1247 says:

                dont care about any of that

                only care about the chart

                i see it as leading diagonal down or maybe 4th wave

                either way the end is near for bonds

                poor risk reward

  18. ABchart says:

    Oil: Nigeria

    They boost…
    “Kachikwu said Nigeria’s current oil output was 2.2 million barrels a day and he planned to boost it to 2.5 million barrels but this would not add to the global crude supply glut.”

    But they agree to freeze…
    “Nigeria expects oil producers to agree a supply freeze at a meeting in Doha next month”

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/opec-oil-nigeria-idUKL5N16V42E

    At this level of contradiction, I am unable to understand!

  19. phil1247 says:

    11:30 reversal period

    es testing extension long

    coincidence?????

  20. ABchart says:

    “In other words, earnings drives cash flow which drives buybacks.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/naysayers-are-confusing-cause-with-effect-in-the-stock-buyback-debate-130542338.html

    Amazing how companies are burning cash instead of investing > creating jobs > consumption > growth.

  21. elmer510 says:

    I read about China – sum of privat and public debt is now more than 250% of GDP
    or the same level as debt ridden countries like US, Spain, Greece before they went into crisis.
    One important difference is that in China many banks are state-owned, and the same with some of the worst industrial companies. So probably China will spend a lot of money to support their banks and industrial enterprises – which means they could start selling US goverment papers to fund the whole thing, China has a total of 3200 bln USD in foreign currency reserves, much of it in US bonds.
    A chinese sell out could trigger a rate increase in US when yield is rising. So things are connected.
    US has also been borrowing a lot of money last 35 years – with a large tade deficit – but not as challelnging as for many european counries after all.

    No country has faced numbers like China has now and avoided a crisis.

  22. Jimmy Porter says:

    I am in a mood to share today. Let me know what you guys think.
    Rather you like MAs or not these work well for me. I use these along with 3 other indicators for day trading.
    Only use these on eminis because it needs to take into account overnight trading.

    1 min charts-
    120,240,480 Good for support and resistance. Especially on trend days.

    4 hr charts-
    16,32,64

  23. Fed list of things to do this week:(This after lowering estimates for rate increases LAST week and lowering GDP for the next 2 years).
    Make sure gold doesn t breakout–CHECK. (By B.S.ing about April rate increase)
    Keep oil selloff contained—CHECK.
    Get a fake dollar rally started–CHECK.This siphons money from gold to equities.
    3 for 3…not a bad week.Time for a brandy Janet.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      JANET’S SECONDARY LIST

      1) make sure I dont peck at the table of next hearing. They may think I look like a bird but can’t let them think I am a bird.

      2) every night three times before I go to be continue to put my head in a vice and tighten at multiple angles so my head stays as close to a perfect circle as possible

      3) find a new bowl for a new hair cut for a whole new “hey I’m Janet” look

  24. the buy the dip crew stepped right in at 7:05. don’t think they can hold it up anymore though. So we should be going down from here. But ive been wrong a lot lately, maybe more hoping we go down from here. Relentless for sure. Need a close under 2040

  25. wildmarkets says:

    Pullback is over?

  26. frommi2 says:

    Wohooo the bear is back. 🙂
    Russel 2000 has just activated its target 750.

  27. stmro says:

    Central bankers jabbering about rate rises, and big rise in oil inventories. That precipitated a drop in futures. Question is whether this gap gets closed early on like all the others.

    13:10 GMT was the first big red bar:
    http://news.forexlive.com/!/there-may-be-a-case-to-be-made-for-an-april-move-says-bullard-20160323

    14:30 GMT was the 2nd big red bar:
    http://news.forexlive.com/!/eia-weekly-crude-inventories-9357k-bvs-2525k-exp-20160323

  28. mjtplayer says:

    The bulls are doing a great job at holding-up the market above SPX 2,040. 3-4 days now of defending this area, which means if/when it gives way the acceleration lower should begin.

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