Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open slightly higher high, DOW +21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened four points below Friday’s SPX 2050 close. By 10am the SPX pushed back up to 2051 when Existing home sales were reported lower: 5.08M v 5.47M. The market then pulled back to SPX 2043 by 10:30. After matching Friday’s low it started to work its way higher. At 2:30 the market hit SPX 2054, then dipped to close at 2052.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rose 50 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the FHFA housing index at 9am.

The market opened the week lower, turned positive, hit Friday’s SPX 2043 low, then made a slightly higher uptrend high at 2054. Another day with a relatively small trading range: 2043-2054, and Friday was 2043-2052. No change in regard to the short term count. Still looking for a reversal down to SPX 2022, and then 1963, to signal this uptrend to be over. Short term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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226 Responses to Monday update

  1. Wow we may actually close lower and not higher… It’s been a while.

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Computers and CB’s have destroyed this market’s logic and integrity. You can argue bull or bear but to me this market is dead and only nuclear proliferation will bring the true market back to life.

  3. blackjak100 says:

    Maybe CN popping in here was the top. Big down setup possibly today

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Another day of making slightly HH’s with absolutely zero volume. Yesterday was the lightest volume day of the year for the SPY, today isn’t much better. High altitude, thin air.

  5. kvilia says:

    Quick observation. UVXY, TZA, etc. are lower after hours between 7 and 8 pm EST if you want to enter a speculative position. At least for the last couple of weeks. This may change with the trend change.

  6. bhtrade says:

    A market that won’t let the bulls in . . . or the bears out . . .

  7. aahmichael says:

    fwiw, I’m counting a WXY completed from 1810 to 2056 today. 1930-1891-2056. Y= 1.382 of W

    • Simba Simba says:

      LOL 😂😂😂

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      you might be right home slice. Hope you are because I already put a sharp knife through one of my eyeballs (it worked cause it overwhelmed the market pain I was having) and if it were to go any further ID be blind soon and then I wouldn’t be able to read charts. Of course blindly making trades at that point might work better. So now that I think about it its kind of a win win situation. If it goes higher I wont go blind. If it does go higher Ill make better trades. Man and to think all I had to do was change my perspective.

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    thanks BJ …………………….furthermore (for Fiona and BJ)

    going with the P5 assumption again curious as to additional thoughts on where P2 is more likely to have ended. One of the things that doesn’t seem to fit in my head is the Oct 14 move and how that is labeled here. Seems to me that the 3 of 3 (which from what I understand tends to be the longest in time and price) is better suited to have ended in Aug 14. That being the case it would make sense for the 2 of 3 to be the European Crisis maybe? If I am making any sense at all here wouldn’t the time of the 2 of P3 and the time of 3 of P3 and the time of P4 (all being much longer in time and price than stated here) would fit better? Maybe I am just rambling here. Does that make sense? Thoughts?

  9. steplaland says:

    John Murphy is now very bullish from today’s update. Looking like technicians are switching sides.

  10. ABchart says:

    ES 60 minutes: negative divergence on MACD and RSI. A drop of about 5% is likely.

  11. gasman88 says:

    Imagine there’s no bear markets
    It’s easy if you try
    No hell below us
    Only algos pushing high…..

    • Dex T says:

      Nice poem but…

      Pure utopian fantasy. When the concept of “money” and exchanging it for goods and services is gone then we can consider these dreams.

      Until then… most of the world markets and some U.S. ones (like the Russell) are already in confirmed bears.

      The rally will eventually end.

  12. john b says:

    looking typical subdividing behaviour

  13. lunker1 says:

    had a dream last night 2062 top. and it was nice meeting you Tony lol.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      I had a dream that Bears and Bulls were playing in a schoolyard together happy and free ………………………….and then I woke up with a dead bear head underneath my covers and realized that longs made me an offer I could not refuse

      • phil1247 says:


        whats wrong with you?………….

        dont ever tell anyone outside the family what you’re thinking again

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          sorry Ill go back to eating my pasta fazool

          • phil1247 says:


            i never wanted this for you…….

            sonny ….sonny was different

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            there are many things Tony taught me in this blog, keep my friends close but my bears close but keep my bulls closer =)

  14. elmer510 says:

    I’m confident with Tony’s bear call, and I know it takes time for a bearmarket to really take over the action. So I stay patient and wait for new signals. No need to be inside the market all of the time.
    Probably it will go a bit higher – but I’m not really sure. So i wait for some more dark clouds to arrive.

    Meanwhile i try to improve my guitar skills playing Chuck Berry riffs. Go Johnny go…

  15. kvilia says:

    Just let me dry out 🙂

  16. phil1247 says:

    if this is wave 3 up …cant overlap now
    stops on all longs now at 2051 spx..

  17. kvilia says:

    I think I got it:

    UVXY in the higher teens, SPX may undershoot 3-5 points, still good for pivot (+-7 pts).

  18. Here in this SP500 15-min chart, is the same wave shown from the Fed Meeting that we showed on the five-minute chart. The purpose of this chart is to illustrate as clearly as I can what I mean by “The Fourth Wave Conundrum” which happens at every degree of trend.

    As most know this morning started with a three-wave sequence lower. Now we have a new high as predicted by labeling this morning as brown wave (iv). But the question is, “is brown wave (iv) really over?”. The new high could be wave (v), but is brown (iv) really that short in time?

    SP500 (15 Min)  3_22_2016a

    So, then one has to draw a channel on the upward wave to see if it completes as a clear “five”. If it does, then ‘great’, ok its brown (v). But if it doesn’t complete as a five and breaks the channel before making an impulse, then it could just be the (b) wave of 1) and expanded flat, 2) a running triangle, or a larger structure like a flat-x-zigzag. Unless one has ‘awfully good’ metrics on an intraday basis – and I don’t – this is the hardest call to make. Recognizing that ‘fourth waves can be long drawn out affairs might make one lean in the direction of a fourth wave continuing, but unless one has the patience to deal with these issues, they will probably not make useful wave calls.

    Finally, you will recall how on last week’s triangle, I succinctly stated that “higher b waves are bullish; higher b waves point in the direction of the market going up”. So, this morning, while several were, there should have no surprise at a higher high.

    P.S. The wave at the top is an ‘impulse’ 5. It’s wave iv does not overlap wave i. When an impulse wave “starts” with a diagonal, as in the Leading Diagonal I called in near real time on Fed day, then, by the principle of alternation, an impulse should not ‘end’ with a diagonal. If Wave 1 is a diagonal, wave 5 ‘should’ not be. If wave 5 is a diagonal, wave 1 ‘should’ not be. If wave A is a diagonal, wave C should not be.

    Cheers and enjoy the chart.

    • phil1247 says:

      i like that EWO peak is at 3 of 3 …..:)

    • Because there appear to be only three-waves up before the channel broke, the count favors a:3 down, and b:3, up of (iv). Yes, you ‘can’ count five-up with the tiny pip that made a new high. But, the second grouping of waves is not even as long as the first grouping of waves, up. The second grouping of waves up, did not break the ‘base channel’ higher formed by the first group of waves up, and so the upward waves really don’t have the character of an impulse wave upward. (In other words, a wave three did not break above the upper channel line). Further, the upward movement is inside the length of b:3 = 1.382 x a:3. So, the ‘best’ count at this time is a b:3 wave higher, with a c:5, down to follow.

      SP500 (15 Min)  3_22_2016b

      The back up to this count would likely be that there were in fact five tiny waves up, and it should be a counted as blue a of b:3, only. Counting fourth and fifth waves is nasty stuff and requires patience.

  19. stmro says:

    The more people short the more it squeezes. This looks more and more like the low volume meltups of 2011 to 2014.

    We’ll get a retrace soon. For me, to be in a bear market the retracr must:

    1) Take us well below 200 dma and stay below there for a week.
    2) Take breadth as low or lower than it wasn’t here last time price was below the 200 dma
    3) Advance impulsively. Early morning dips that end up getting bought towards the close are not allowed.

    Am ready to buy or short based on how the above plays out.

    • ABchart says:

      No Stmro. The pourcetage of bulls now is at 69%. One of the highet level since 2 years.

      • stmro says:

        Not what you’re disagreeing with but a single indicator, let alone a sentiment indicator don’t prove that we’re in a bear market. Don’t talk your book and be open to contrary evidence.

  20. kvilia says:

    I dont know much about pivots but noticed a lot of times those Tony posts in the updates have been reached before SPX would turn the other way. Assuming 2043 pp held, I would think of 2070 or 2085 as the next target. So maybe not 2058-2060 so much? Just thinking out loud.
    Another thing is guessing the top is as dangerous as getting the bottom. I’d rather see some follow through on the trend reversal than guessing the top every time.
    Wish I was that wise two weeks ago…

  21. johnnymagicmoney says:

    BJ –

    where do you have P5 topping?

    • blackjak100 says:

      If P5=P1 which ended at 1356 as truncated fifth then 2499

      If P5=p1 which ended 1220ish then 2363

      TC’s target look reasonable to me. Let’s see where major 1 ends first to dial it in

      • fionamargaret says: we’re talking… I have a target of 2185 or so…pretty measly compared to yours (I can adjust)
        think the US will have inflows from the Euro area, apart from Japan……

  22. Tony Jordan says:

    This move over the last hour or so starting from 17580/2048 looks like 3 of 3 of a 5 … potentially the last 5. We’ll know soon, most likely tomorrow.

  23. phil1247 says:

    target 3 points away

    protect long profits

  24. captbara says:

    8 ema nuff said.

  25. Jimmy Porter says:

    It doesn’t matter if you are bullish or bearish long term. This market is getting to the point of over extended short term. How far do the bulls think they need to take this so even on a strong sell off they can hold the market at 1970 or Tony’s 1963.
    My thoughts are somewhere around 2060 on emini.
    I personally have this wave up as wave 5 with wave 4 completed this morning as an expanded flat. The thing that I am cautious about is my wave 1 length is around 40 pts which could take it to around 2070 emini if they are going for equal wave lengths

    • llerias7 says:

      Everybody at top guessing…but is the next “plunge” that going to show this mkt´s hand: all the way down to 1600´s (think CB´s and others alike do not want now!) or will rebound strongly (implies a W3) at 1950´s or 1970´s…that will decide next 6 month ahead…

  26. ABchart says:

    I will ajust all my charts. Something has changed in my short term system.


    Now the CAc40 going to 4445 before 4230. But Will need another high before a 30% crash.
    SPX and DAX Tomorrow.

  27. phil1247 says:

    not much in the way of ext long targets being hit now

    blast off

  28. Tony Jordan says:

    If we can get a green close on the INDU it will be a fib 8 greens on the Trotsky. Target above 17623.87. Armstrong says the INDU only turns bullish if it closes the quarter above 17750, everything else is noise and he dose not appear optimistic on a bullish outcome. Rally in stocks, crude and gold during 1st quarter he says is likely counter trend to catch as many offside as possible. After a nasty bearish period, which again will get the majority on the wrong side, he expects most asset classes to rally strongly at the expense of the sovereign bond market. Gold and stocks to rally together into 2020. Interesting scenario. TC you might get your bear yet.

  29. Nicer and nicer 3-3. 3-3

  30. Millan Tomic says:

    BTK has corrected the large extension over the 200 wma (-40%) and seems to be making a corrective ABC higher (now in C) which points higher. If correct, then this should support NAS next few days, into month end. Dunno how large weight Valeant has in BTK. It may well be that NAS outperforms into month end SPX.

  31. squeeze

    big down is here

  32. This is according to research regarding Flows and Liquidy by JP Morgan, I though I would share the bullet points of the research paper.

    – Short covering phase that started a month ago is very advanced but not full completed.
    -3 quarters of previous selling of Equity ETFs during Jan and Feb were reversed in just 3 weeks.
    – CTAs appear to have fully covered their shorts.
    – But, the short base in US equity futures remained elevated as of March 15th, perhaps held by non-cta investors, and it is unlikely that this short base was fully covered post FOMC
    – Both CTAs and Discretionary Macro hedge appear to be Neutral right now. Given Price and macro momentum there is a higher likelihood they shift to long equity stance.
    – The previous $320bn retail investors parked in Money markets funds during the 2nd half of last year represents a lot of firepower if their attitude towards equities improves.
    – Globally, the ratio of M2 money supply to the stock of bonds and equities has been rising over the past year, reaching its highest level since the taper tantrum of June 2013 at the end of last month.
    – Foreign investors continue to sell Japanese Equities at a record pace.
    – The $83bn sold by foreign investors since august represents 36% of the sum they had previously injected into Japanese Equities since PM Abe came into power in Dec 2012
    – Domestic leveraged investors also appear to be exiting Japanese equities
    – EM bond and equity ETFs see further strong inflows.

  33. Too many bulls here now. And some desperate bears !! Top 2054 and big down is here !!

  34. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Almost fully positioned
    4 longs / 16 shorts
    1687 $spx by Aug 15 .

    I am sure by that time ( spx 1687 ) Tony will be happy to answer everybody’s question and not hide.
    So far , 180 + pts against you – stop hiding

    P.s. wti is not going to $11

    tony caldaro says:
    January 24, 2016 at 5:39 pm
    It’s a bear market, after a failed fifth.
    Not uncertain.

    • aahmichael says:

      Are you still thinking that it chops around for another month or so, or are you looking for it to head straight down? Thanks.

    • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      Most of you would benefit from reading this – Does is sound like your trading patterns ????
      Never forget , the best trader’s in the world get 50-55% of their trades right , but profits are twice as big as losses . It’s that simple – don’t make it difficult !

      • rabbittrader1 says:

        That poem also hangs on the wall of the New Haven Veterans Administration Psychiatric Emergency Room where veterans Addicted to alcohol or drugs enter for treatment. It is about changing your life and choosing a different path from the same one you are on. It is a very powerful message Rabbit (Former Naval Carrier pilot, Korea.)

        • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

          AA mike
          1956 ish next important zone – look at my post on 3/18

          New Haven , Pepe’s white clam – best pizza in world ! Every summer Sunday night for
          18 yrs back to Greenwich from Watch Hill

          • rabbittrader1 says:

            Yes Pepe’,s Pizza is the best, but also Chicken WINGS are the best at Hot Rod Caf’e on Bank Street in New London ,CT. I used to commute to NYC, Greenwich, Bridgeport, Westport, New Haven and Essex, (as well as New London) at various corporate positions from Old Lyme Ct. (Not to mention Phoenix AZ for 5 years) Rabbit This market is being kept up by the PPT until Goldman JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BankAmerica etc. and the cognizenti get their shorts lined up. R. Watch for news out of Tokyo.

    • simpleiam says:

      If Tony wanted to hide, you wouldn’t be here. He’d have shut this blog down long ago.

      • Jimmy Porter says:

        I agree simpleiam. It doesn’t make sense to me why people come on here and talk shit to Tony. I have concluded it is people with insecurities and people who lose a lot of money. So when it finally goes their way they have to brag so they feel better about themselves.
        Personally, I have made excellent money on this uptrend. I don’t talk crap. I do get pissed and annoyed at people who demand explanations from tony or blame him for losing money.
        I trade based on my own ways but when it comes to Tony’s updates he has labeled an uptrend from almost the low. Anyone who only goes short based on his LONG term forecast doesn’t know how to trade.

      • trondack says:

        Where do we go if this blog is shut down? Thanks!

      • fotis2 says:


  35. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    The pattern for the last three weeks has been, Test WR1, Test WPP, then HH’s.
    So far this week the pattern is the same. Will this pattern continue or change this week?
    SPY ~ WPP @ 203.55 ~ WR1 @ 205.15
    GL All

    • mjtplayer says:

      Everyone is looking at tomorrow due to the lunar eclipse, full moon and the major astro cycles this week, which began Sunday with the spring equinox.

      From an astro standpoint, this week has all the makings of an important high, which we’ve already had in the SPX, small-caps and trannies yesterday and NAZ & NDX today. Doesn’t mean we can’t grind higher for another day or 2, but this time frame signals a turn.

  36. B finished at 2054
    Caldaro is king !

    Tomorrow big down !


  37. ABchart says:


    SPX has gone positive for the day.— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) 22 mars 2016


  38. gasman88 says:

    ” Buy the dip regardless of anything” trade is the most obvious trade, but it works time after time, after time. It’s like Pavlovian response to red, it’s almost laughable. I think machines are programmed that way

  39. llerias7 says:

    DAX going green?!?! Someone tell them there was a terrorist attack nearby…

  40. Dow is lagging for the first time since this rally started, while the Nasdaq Brothers are leading, and again, for the first time since this rally started. So far NazBros green and S&P filled gap in every way imaginable. If SP goes green too, then I see nothing to stop this from testing the ATH’s soon.

    Why must the markets confound me so?

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