SHORT TERM: volatile day, DOW -4
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 287k v 293k. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1946, bounced to 1949 in the opening minutes, and then headed south. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -10.1% v +10.5%. By 11:30 the SPX hit the 1929 pivot range, and found support at 1926. Then the market started to rally. The rally continued until just before 3pm when the SPX hit 1952. Then the market dipped to end the day where it started at SPX 1946.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 (est. +228k) along with the Trade deficit, then ISM services at 10am.
The market opened unchanged today, bounced a few points, and then headed to SPX 1926. After sitting at extremely oversold for most of the morning the market started to rally. After rallying 9 points it paused and then pushed higher. At the low we had counted seven waves down from the Minor B SPX 1985 high: 1969-1978-1954-1964-1942-1951-1926. Notice all three of the rallies during this decline were 9-10 points. It looks like SPX 1926 just completed Minute A of Minor C, and this afternoon’s rally is Minute B. The next decline should be Minute C, which may end at the OEW 1901 pivot range to complete Intermediate wave A. The OEW 1956 pivot should now provide strong resistance for the rest of this downtrend. We updated the hourly chart to display this wave pattern. Short term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral during today’s rally. Best to your Friday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market