thursday update

SHORT TERM: volatile day, DOW -4

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 287k v 293k. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1946, bounced to 1949 in the opening minutes, and then headed south. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -10.1% v +10.5%. By 11:30 the SPX hit the 1929 pivot range, and found support at 1926. Then the market started to rally. The rally continued until just before 3pm when the SPX hit 1952. Then the market dipped to end the day where it started at SPX 1946.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 (est. +228k) along with the Trade deficit, then ISM services at 10am.

The market opened unchanged today, bounced a few points, and then headed to SPX 1926. After sitting at extremely oversold for most of the morning the market started to rally. After rallying 9 points it paused and then pushed higher. At the low we had counted seven waves down from the Minor B SPX 1985 high: 1969-1978-1954-1964-1942-1951-1926. Notice all three of the rallies during this decline were 9-10 points. It looks like SPX 1926 just completed Minute A of Minor C, and this afternoon’s rally is Minute B. The next decline should be Minute C, which may end at the OEW 1901 pivot range to complete Intermediate wave A. The OEW 1956 pivot should now provide strong resistance for the rest of this downtrend. We updated the hourly chart to display this wave pattern. Short term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral during today’s rally. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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329 Responses to thursday update

  1. manunidhi21 says:

    can you please extend that light blue support line on Dow 60min chart.


  2. buddyglove says:

    I have to say that Tonys “Downtrend confirmed” has been an excellent buy signal over the past 18 mnths, 75-85% successful I’d say….

    • blackjak100 says:

      Correct but a correction at primary degree means it should be different this time.

      By the way, Jeff cooper the Gann guy tweeted 1971 for bounce before it hit – 90 degrees up from 1926

    • cmucha68 says:

      It’s interesting, when market overshoots to the downside people start immediately talking about 1800, 1750 etc. and when it goes a bit to high they talk about 2100, 2250 and so on. However, a real good correction is welcome at these levels. So a P4 would be not too bad.

    • gasman88 says:

      Nothing is confirmed yet, one day does not make a trend. We need a strong follow through next week, if not lookout below

  3. Peter Sliney says:

    I would love to know of the people who were short that had mental buy stops in actually executed.
    It’s easy to see how carful planning can quickly can fall apart in the face of adversity.

  4. kvilia says:

    Just wondering – what happened to 3 posts rule?

  5. pooch77 says:

    Tony what are are our odds now being PIV,we were at 70/30??

  6. ko68 says:

    50% fib retracement @ 1972

  7. Libor Val says:

    a standard V shape bottom?

  8. fishonhook says:

    Wave C where are you?
    Come on in…your time is over due.

    • ISINCODE says:

      Fish – Look for choppiness next week and possibly hitting top end of 1973 pivot before “C” begins. Just enough time for people to start thinking about QE3 ending late this month and stopping this temporary euphoria in its tracks. Watch it accelerate when the psychology hits the bulls “no more backstop for stocks and ZIRP wont help either”. IMHO of course

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