friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Friday, DOW +209

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were much higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 248k v 142k, the Unemployment rate dropped: 5.9% v 6.1%, and the Trade deficit was slightly lower: -$40.1bn v -$40.5bn. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1956 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1946 yesterday. At 10am the SPX had cleared the 1956 pivot and entered the 1973 pivot range at 1967. Also at 10am ISM services was reported lower: 58.6 v 59.6. The market pulled back to SPX 1960 by 10:30, then resumed its Friday rally. Around 3pm the SPX hit 1971, then pulled back to close at 1968.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold fell $22, and the USD soared. Medium term support rises back to the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Last night the Monetary base was reported lower: $4.036tn v $4.150tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.8% v 52.0%.

The market gapped up at the open today, continuing yesterday’s afternoon rally. When the SPX hit 1964, clearing the 1956 pivot, which we thought would be good resistance, we updated yesterday’s low from Minute a to Intermediate A of the downtrend. Apparently the seven waves down from SPX 1985 was all of Minor c. Thus far we have had an abc down: 1979-2000-1964 for Minor A; an abc up to SPX 1985 for Minor B; and recently seven waves down to 1926 for Minor C/Int. A. From the SPX 2019 uptrend high that is a 93 point decline. With Int. B underway we would expect this rally to top out around SPX 1973 (50% retracement) or SPX 1986 (61.8% retracement). The first retracement is at the 1973 pivot range, and the second around the recent Minute wave b high 1985/1986. Since Germany’s DAX was closed today, US stocks could stay favorable into at least Monday’s open. Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 pivot and SPX 1985/1986. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

87 Responses to friday update

  1. ufa123 says:

    There’s nowt so queer as folk………….
    Tony, I’m glad you can rise above some sad people in this world. They only pollute and produce disharmony.
    This is great blog and I thank everyone for sharing their thoughts. When we use those ideas and it goes wrong we should be big enough to not blame anyone but ourselves.
    GL to all

  2. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony. Int A proved to be a bit shorter than was originally thought, so I guess it was in the cards, too. I was planning to play Int B but the turnaround was too quick. Well, added to my shorts at the close, absolutely comfortable here. Have a great weekend, and please don’t get upset with the losers posting nonsense. You should know there are many people here thankful for your guidance and wishing you best.

  3. omahared says:

    Thanks, Tony. I took today’s reaction into overbought territory as a gift from the heavens to double my net short exposure to 66%.

  4. lunker1 says: ?

    I wish I had the time to use all the tools every day.
    together they all tell the story.

  5. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr. Caldaro. Appreciate your effort and hard work! Looking forward to your weekend review!

  6. chrisk44342 says:

    Thx Tony as always. For the naysayers, you’re posers. If you were for real, you would understand the value of market context and not confuse it with a prediction. Losers.

    • cmucha68 says:

      I think you are the loser because you can not bear the facts and the truth. Aside from the fact that tony is not better in his prognosis than most of us and other technicians who are for years in this business, tony is of course offering his opinions for free. He is offering his his view also on other pages like etc. Similar services charge indeed a monthly fee, usually starting from 20 to 100 bucks a month. Tony takes a
      1000 $ for a one on one seminar but that does not make you a good trader at all. Even the usual suspects (follower) like Lunker1 and others are asking the same stupid questions again and again ( is it a “b” or a 2 or a C Tony ? etc. So what sense does it have to follow further ? In fact Tony is not mother Theresa or a monk. So his generosity is backed by an intention. Selling something. If something is really working great you share it with your friends,, family or partner maybe only and not promoting your ideas time consuming over the Internet. Or you just trade and not sacrificing your time writing articles for the public. I don’t need to thank Tony for telling me support and resistances that are obvious on the chart and that if a support does not hold the markets will continue to the next support until it reverses and so on. At least I have seen some guys here on the board in recent weeks who made better prognosis but no one honored it really. And there is nothing special by saying that if the market makes this it “should and could or would or probably not. If and would never good is an old saying.

      • lunker1 says:

        Moocher, if you are as good as you say you wouldn’t be here.

      • cmparis says:

        cmucha – Seems Tony has already set up his parameters. As I understand it his take is that 75%/25% we are in P4 with a break of 1905 confirming 100%. Int A is in at 1926. 1627 most likely target for P4.

        We are all learning here and would love to hear your take.

        What have you got?

      • jeffbalin says:

        Here is your homework. All of you read cmucha’s posts today until you clearly see how silly he sounds. There is an opportunity to grow as a trader and a human being by seeing what’s behind the words of his posts that which he cannot.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Ok, you gave a fairly intelligent response and that I appreciate. What I disagree with is the term prognosis that you use. Yes, if people are coming on here expecting an actionable trade recommendation then I feel it’s already obvious that this isn’t that place. Wouldn’t you agree? He doesn’t pass it off as such either- never has from what I can tell. Prechter, for all of his years of experience and high IQ, offers this with his EW predictions and it sucks balls. So why blame Tony for anything? This is a site for giving you context. Use your conventional indicators, analysis, signals etc. to do the rest. Pretty valuable service for free, when used properly.

    • jeffbalin says:

      Perfect chrisk. +100

  7. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony! looking forward to your weekend update.

    keeping things darn simple tonight. Just trendline and support for the COMPQ:

  8. fishonhook says:

    What is WLEI?
    Can’t find it in the net

  9. xscaler92646 says:

    Look for this setup next. I’m not saying it will, just what you want to see.$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p40177602585&a=358423856

  10. There are several ways to make money, but using TA mainly one:
    – Buy the breakout on an 1-2-3 set up and trade the impulsive “3” and “5”
    – In all time frames
    – On the way up or the way down

  11. fishonhook says:

    Where’s that wascally wabbit with his prophesy of doom today
    Doom delayed

  12. kjb0 says:

    Tony has always had it right. Smart guy that Tony. Trade and invest longer term. Approx. 90% of day traders and short term swing traders will lose money over time. Yet I see most on this board trying to trade every wiggle. Either you don’t realize you are losing or you just refuse to acknowledge it. Maybe you think you are learning to be a
    winner and just need more time and
    experience. Good luck with that. Or maybe you are just having fun ….in that case……enjoy. I just know that I am going to hear from all the winners in the 10%. It may not sound like it. But I am trying to help most save their money.

    • cmucha68 says:

      Easy to be smart. Give a wide range of price and throw some obvious pivots in it. Sooner or later a price will reach that pivot and if it doesn’t turn away then it’s simply extending to the next pivot. And if it’s not turning back there then it’s again extending until it fits. And of course you cannot charge money for that. If Tony would say I am buying or selling here and this is my stop etc. and shows his performance then he is really smart and can charge hundreds of dollars. Everyone can say if this scenario does not occur then there is an alternative way. If the market is not going up further its going down or perhaps sideways ? Tony said yesterday that minute c may begin. It didn’t. He was wrong but still gives P4 a 75%-25% chance. But if the markets makes a new all time high then P3 is still not over and extending. Great help.

  13. I think personally trashing/blaming anyone is wrong. IMO, Tony is posting all his updates for FREE. Anyone else in his position would have charged anything between 20 to 300 dollars a month.

    I was never paid member anywhere, but, I know many of my friends who switched between one and the other, eventually, leaving markets.

    If you disagree with Tony, I am not saying you should not write, but I think some are going too far in voicing their disagreement. Tony does not write your destiny, you are the only one writing your own destiny.

    Once again SPX 1994, no PIVOT at 1973.

    Have a good one all.

  14. joecthetruthteller says:

    Thanks Tony – it remains to be seen whether or not we have a good market with almost all of August and September’s BS gains erased just 3 days into October.

  15. pas1968 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Any chance RUT (& SP500) P3 top was in July and now forming a P4 bottom?
    meaning a very shallow P4-C1 wave flat for SP500.

  16. Thanks, Tony! As usual, will look forward to your weekend update. Have a nice two days!

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  17. A lot of naval gazing yet again…oh dear market didn’t do what we thought/wanted it to do. This is not a trading blog, it is an opinion blog based on people’s individual
    positions in the market. Not only that, but now we have people who want to ‘help’ others.

    Well you see that’s the problem, there is no “help”. It’s purely dog eat dog, I want your money…period (and vice versa).

    If you continue following EW and blogging you won’t get my money, but I will get yours. Traders/fund managers are there to make their pockets fatter…simple, and the
    sooner all of you understand this, you will understand there are no friends in the market, only money.

    So two things stop blogging and stop using EW. I mean really, you only need to read the weekend report to realize it’s just a re-hashed busted/adjusted version of last
    weekend’s report, and the previous weeks and so on. GL all..

    • Gary Lewis says:

      This is one of Jordan Belfort’s speeches in The Wolf of Wall Street? haha, been there, done that. I’m here for the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Money is just a way of keeping score. In the end, we are all dust.

    • rc1269 says:

      I’m going to have to disagree with you pretty severely on this one. I’ve worked in NYC and Chicago over the course of decades, trading everything from IG and HY corps, credit derivs, lev loans, equities and equity options and I still managed to develop countless friendships with other market participants in a manner in which we sought to both profit as well as help one another.
      There is more than just money in the markets; there are plenty of friends. You’re lack of perspective on the matter just tells me you’re a bitter retail investor who feels like he can never win against the big bad market. I bet if you ask some guys around here – like Lee and probably some others – who have actually worked in the field for a while, you’ll discover that it was the friends and ‘help’ that kept most of us sane and still doing our jobs. There are lots of ways to make money in this world and few of them require you to be heartless and ‘dog eat dog’. The best part of going to my trading desk every day was the friends, not the money.
      Believe it or not, the market is bigger than this blog and its participants. There is plenty of money to be made out there even if every person this blog is on the same side of every trade.
      I find it curious that you come here and blog to tell us not to blog, and offer your help in telling us not to help.

    • kjb0 says:

      Now you understand..grasshopper…………we are all in the matrix and this is all an illusion.
      We got them right where they want us……..well most of us anyway.

    • You really make some sense. Easy 50 points missed by those waiting for 1900. Though no one could have caught the bottom but the real travesty would be when market makes new highs and Tony relabels it to be the continuation of Primary III.

      Nothing in the conventional TA is foretelling a 20% correction is in the waiting right here. If it indeed turns out to be true then I will be sold on Tony’s work else the quest continues to find a method to this madness.

    • x666 says:

      Caldaro just had his most accurate week in months, and you trash him right after he nailed the low? If you wanted to snipe, the time for Monday Morning Quarterbacking was following his repeated failed attempts to identify a Wave Two bottom. But insofar as trashing Caldaro right after he had a great week…it is certainly most curious timing.

      Is some other emotional dynamic at play? Have you been averaging down on the grains? Are you trapped short in RSH? Don’t tell me that earlier this week you mortgaged the house and bought weekly calls on NUGT?

      You seem so bitter. I enthusiastically applaud you for that – it is a bitter world – but the context is vexing.

      • cmucha68 says:

        Caldaro also stated this :”. The next decline should be Minute C, which may end at the OEW 1901 pivot range to complete Intermediate wave A. The OEW 1956 pivot should now provide strong resistance for the rest of this downtrend”.

        Minute C not happened and 1956 pivot was also not resistance. Nailed it indeed.

      • x666 says:

        You put me in the untenable position of defending someone who is actively hostile towards me, but truth dictates acknowledging that Caldaro was bearish until Thursday, quickly identified the low, and forecast a rally. That is outstanding real time cognition, and does not merit insane excrement like this: “A lot of naval gazing yet again…oh dear market didn’t do what we thought/wanted it to do.”

        Caldaro was excellent this week. Trading is a discipline of “Read and React”, not “Let’s inscribe our opinions in marble”.

      • bob623 says:

        No one is forcing you to login into OEW and follow Tony’s blog. You can always complain on a paid web pages and see where that gets you. Tony provides an extraordinary service to traders and I am grateful for his shared insight and knowledge. Thanks, Tony!

      • perceval7 says:

        Tony said down a little more to go wed night, but we were close to the end of the wave. We went down 1/2 a percent. Then it seems he may miss the top by half a point based on the one comment you reference. His guidance has been excellent. It is quite inappropriate for you to drop in with your negative comments. We are hear because we value Tony and the other members of this community. Please move on……there are hundreds of other places to express yourself, perhaps 1 of them might value your insights. Best of luck in your trading.

    • randomacts4 says:

      Listen. Rather than coming here to roost a while and post derogatory comments, wouldn’t it be reasonable to suggest that you just continue to operate your own business/blog in whatever manner you so choose and remain there? Isn’t it enough to just say, in a straightforward manner, for example, that I disagree with your market outlook, and leave it at that? Points of view are just that. Whether one agrees or doesn’t isn’t the issue; it’s how one decides to make their perspective known that counts. Please consider it.

    • cmucha68 says:

      I couldn’t agree more. You are my best friend here. The greatest are always the insane calls by folks who insist that tomorrow we will see this and that price for sure, or on October 10 the price will be at 1880 and another saw a retrace to a 38 fibo or perhaps 61 but never happened. Especially for today some claimed a drop to 1901 after that big turnaround yesterday. Another claimed 2 days ago spx will hit bottom at 1940. Most of the time you do not hear from them for days or weeks until they come out of their “rabbit” hole with new brainless nonsense claims. Opinions never help except one’s ego.

    • lunker1 says:

      how can someone have so little of a life that on Friday night they have the desire to go troll a blog? it’s just like those kids that are totally annoying (crying for attention) because the parents don’t love them. you guys should all create a self love blog and tell each other how great you are. at least it would keep you busy.

  18. Price bounces off 50 EMA on the daily chart that serves as ceiling


  19. pooch77 says:

    Dax should rally Monday spill over to Us 1985 spx

  20. drwarmington says:

    Thanks Tony, With this rally bullying up a lot of the bloggers, it’s nice to see you holding the course.

  21. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony
    I am still confused abt silver. It has been in a bear market for more than 3 years and today it made a new low. It’s price now is only 33% of it all time highs. A huge crash.
    Any forecast ?
    As I understand the average cost of silver is abt $20 an oz. Now the price is well below that level. Not a good news for miners

    • Eventually the US Dollar is going to lose half its value in quick order, when this occurs gold & silver will skyrocket.

      • tommyboys says:

        LOL – where have you been? Dollar has HAD its trashing over the past decade and a half. Will not be breaking in half anytime soon. Its just beginning a longer term secular bull. It will remain the lessor of the evils for a decade+ (is my rough guess). Best of luck with your metals.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Silver and all the commodities are in a bear market, and will be for quite some time.
      Maybe when they start shutting down unprofitable mines you will see at least a temporary low.

    • Standard commodity cycle will have to see supply destruction or a heck of a lot of demand increase for it to find a bottom, let alone move up. Just stay out of the way for awhile until it happens. Wait for the mines to be shut down all over the place. The ones that are going to lose biggest are the primary producers of silver only. The mines that produce silver along with something else (silver being incidental to their other mining) will still sell their silver because the cost has already been incurred in mining the other metal and is gravy. It’s a commodity and this has to happen before we can say the bottom is in. I’m hanging tight until I see this happen. Hopefully it will be back to single digits like in 2000ish time frame. Generational buying opp in silver will come, but not for awhile yet. Patience and watch the supply and demand.

      • M1 says:

        I may be completely wrong but the way silver has been correcting the past three years is suggesting me this bear market (maybe over) is only part of a huge bull market. Maybe this was cycle wave 4 or cycle wave B.
        Silver may reach prices we can not even imagine before this party ends.
        Yes, short term silver price can go even lower than $16.50.
        Once is over, $30-$33 may be the inflection point for the next bull market.

  22. Thanks Tony
    pimacanyon thanks for the reply yesterday, but about your post saying that normally ED and LD are labeled abcde ,I have to disagree, this is the first time I see them labeled this way, that’s why i asked to Tony

  23. A-D line not impressive at +1096, but neither was it that negative during the preceding decline. The strength in the dollar may be attracting foreign investors to US equity markets as well as encouraging Americans to repatriate money from foreign currency- denominated investments. This factor may serve to mitigate the severity of the P4 correction, if that is what we are actually in.

    • George,
      Probably true to some degree but it is also hot money and will leave faster than it arrives.

      • tommyboys says:

        The dollar has begun a secular bull. Funds arriving from foreign lands and being repatriated back here will NOT be “hot money”. It is and will be funds employed in long term secular trends finding the new one here. These funds will be with us a long time feeding the US markets.

    • CB says:

      Interesting comments, George. 1096, in absolute terms, may not be impressive, what’s impressive however is that it’s displaying a nice +d at that last dip, so let’s see where it takes us. The usd strength has been impressive, but there are also some other considerations such as taxation, which may begin to play a bigger role in expatriations…

      Thanks for a great weekend update Tony.

  24. bossaenovae says:

    Thanks Tony. Coffee in the morning.

  25. Kisshu2 says:

    thanks tony guess we’ll see if dax wants to do a 38 – 50% retrace might follow through on the other markets lead from today monday morning, then i could see sp going for 1985 early next week.

    • 16golfer says:

      Thanks Tony! See you in the coffee room in the morning!

    • mjtplayer says:

      Germany may have been closed, but the ETF’s here were trading. The massive under performance of the European ETF’s today would signal no; EWG closed DOWN $.09 or -0.33% – that’s sad and pathetic on a day the DOW rallied and closed up 200+.

  26. alexhartley1 says:

    Great Tony. Thanks.

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Thx Tony – love how you stay the course!

    Nyad deteoirated into the close while price was flat so possible 1971 was it

  28. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    That WLEI continues to bleed lower huh, now at 51.8

  29. spr qome says:

    Thanks Tony,

    Monday is a POMO day, so its possible it may hit the 1986 target barring any bad news over weekend..

  30. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a great weekend as well.

  31. wavecounter says:

    Here are two charts of the Dow and Nasdaq futures from the 19th Sept top. It looks a little different to the cash charts. There is a clear channel down and this could be interpreted as a completed bull flag with the third cycle down to the bottom before we explode upwards to new highs. It could also be an on-going channel which means a big move down comes next.

    (Not sure how to embed images so you might have to click the links to see the charts):

  32. Thanks Tony – Wishing you a great weekend.

Comments are closed.