weekend update


The market started the week by making a new uptrend high on Monday, pulled back, made a new all time high on Thursday, pulled back, then ended the week within one point of the all time high. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%, and the DJ World index gained 1.0%. Economic reports returned to a positive bias this week. On the uptick: retail sales, the NY/Philly FED, business inventories, the CPI, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing index, and weekly jobless claims were lower. On the downtick: housing starts, building permits, the M1 multiplier and the WLEI. Next week more housing reports, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

LONG TERM: bull market

The market ended the week within one point of the all time high established on Thursday at SPX 1693. The bull market continues. Unfortunately, as we have been reporting, the US is one of the few, if not the only, bonafide bull market of the twenty international indices we track. When this bull market starts to stumble the thud will be heard worldwide.

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of Super cycle wave 3. Super cycle bull markets last 70 – 80 years. But Cycle [1] bull markets typically last about five years. We continue to expect five Primary waves to conclude before this bull market ends. Primary wave I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into the typical five Major waves, but had a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but both Major 1 and 3 are subdividing into five Intermediate waves.


Major waves 1 and 2, of Primary III, completed by mid-2012. Major wave 3 has been underway since then. Intermediate waves i and ii completed by late-2012, and Int. waves iii and iv completed by mid-2013. Intermediate wave v, of Major wave 3, of Primary III is currently underway. When this uptrend concludes a Major wave 4 correction will follow, and the market should lose about 10% of its value. After that we expect a Major wave 5 uptrend to new highs, concluding Primary wave III. Then after a Primary wave IV correction, a Primary wave V uptrend to new highs should complete the bull market. We continue to target the bull market conclusion by late-winter to early-spring of 2014.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

When this uptrend began at SPX 1560 in mid-June we projected a minimum target of the 1680 pivot for Minor wave 3, and the 1699 pivot for Minor wave 5. These targets were met this week when the SPX entered the 1699 pivot range. We had also projected a July uptrend high would probably end at the 1699 pivot, or an August uptrend high at the 1779 pivot. The question on some traders minds; “Is the market topping here, or preparing to extend into August?”


During the week we posted three potential short term counts to address this question. One of the three has already been eliminated. This leaves us with two potential counts: one posted on the SPX hourly chart, and the other on the DOW hourly chart. Both counts, as of Friday’s close are still valid. The SPX count suggests the uptrend is in the process of a forming a top. The DOW count suggests the uptrend will probably extend into August. The internal wave structure of this uptrend and the technicals, are the keys to this inflection point. Medium term support is at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots.


From the SPX 1560 Intermediate wave iv downtrend low we counted five waves up to SPX 1627, then a three wave pullback to 1605. This completed Minor waves 1 and 2. After that the market rallied quite strongly, in a five wave sequence, to SPX 1685. This could have ended Minor wave 3. The pullback that followed, however, was smaller than the 20+ points expected for a Minor wave 4 (1685-1672). From that low the market rallied to SPX 1693, and then pulled back on Friday to 1684 for another small pullback. During an Int. wave i or wave iii uptrend, we would consider this normal Minor wave 3 activity. However, since there have be several shortened fifth waves during this bull market. We can not assume this fifth wave will follow normal uptrend activity.


During this uptrend the smaller pullbacks, and there have been quite a few, have declined between 9 and 13 points. Minor wave 2 stands out as a 22 point pullback. From the Minor wave 2 SPX 1605 low the market has advanced into Friday’s close with four small pullbacks between the same 9 and 13 points. Normally, we would consider this rally an ongoing Minor wave 3. In fact, should the SPX rise above 1693 we would count this advance as an ongoing Minor wave 3. The count posted on the DOW charts. If it fails to clear SPX 1693, then the count posted on the SPX charts, a potential uptrend high, becomes the probable count.

Technically there are some negatives supporting a potential uptrend high scenario. The SPX/DOW have met the minimum requirements to complete this uptrend, and there are negative divergences on most timeframes. A strong rally, however, would clear them away. Currently, we would put the probabilities for the two scenarios at 50-50. Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1675.


The Asian markets were mostly higher gaining 0.2% on the week. Australia, India and Japan are in confirmed uptrends.

The European markets were mostly higher gaining 1.9% on the week. England, France, Germany and Switzerland are in confirmed uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week gaining 3.3%. Canada and Russia are in confirmed uptrends.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 1.0% on the week.


Bonds continues to look like they are beginning to uptrend gaining 0.7% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend since April gaining 1.8% on the week.

Gold continues to work its way higher gaining 0.9% on the week.

The USD may be downtrending again losing 0.3% on the week.


Monday we have Existing home sales at 10:00. Tuesday: FHFA housing prices. Wednesday: New home sales. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders. Friday: Consumer sentiment. A quiet week, with a quiet FED, ahead of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday of the following week. Best your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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245 Responses to weekend update

  1. torehund says:

    if i am on track, we may get a historical retracement rally in solar, shipping and many other sectors of commodities+++, stocks that have been non performing since not only 2008 but many of them since 2000. As I have aired earlier this retracement will be a quick abc and constitute wave one for the Stocks in the NeXT bullcycle to come. China may very well be in a bear still but tonys projection of 3000 should bive plenty of juice to the respective sectors. Gold could have made a reversed 1,2 and 3 finished so a four should have potential up to where wave one ended. Thats the play there and nearing such an inflection one can rethink if a 5 is in the Cards of the Whole downturn was a simple abc Down after all. As for oil i look to the 2004 until now abc up which should end at 140 usd or so…after that I am envisioning the frist cycle in bull an abc up to possibly 200 usd to make bulls happy !

  2. blackjak100 says:


    Do you still expect Minor 3 to end in the 1699 pivot with the relabeling of your charts? I’m assuming you do, but just wanted to double check in case you’re thinking it extends to infinity.

  3. torehund says:

    thanks for listening
    concerning URRE, lol.

    • torehund says:

      in the last major bull juniors in uranium went X 1000, lots of upside still ! No more nuke fuel passed end 2013.

  4. That little pullback looked like not much of anything.

  5. mkmason2013 says:

    lunker and talon, haven’t seen either of you at all today. Just checking to make sure you’re both okay. GL! M

  6. jackkendo1987 says:

    iv of int iii pulled back 32 points from 1687 to 1635.
    Here iv of int v pulled back only 9 points 1693 to 1684?
    9 vs 32
    excessively out of proportion?

  7. Chung Wang says:

    If 3 is in placed around 1699 pivot, how much pullback you anticipate for the 4?

  8. mjtplayer says:

    With apogee yesterday, a full moon today and maximum declination tomorrow; astrology is pointing to a significant top right here in this area. Major 3??

  9. fbender7 says:

    Interesting to see so many SPY call options down in price this morning in spite of the fact that SPX is up.

  10. jackkendo1987 says:

    iii /3 at 1693,
    iv/3 at 1684,
    v/3 at 1698 or higher?

    DOW v/3 truncated?
    DOW v/3 is lower than iii/3?

  11. jackkendo1987 says:

    VIX +2%
    UVXY -2%

  12. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Hey Mr T,
    Iwm on a sell @. 104.58. minimum target 99.73 . Getting Long TWM 15.38. QQQ gave me the short last Thurs @ $ 75.52. All the stock indices don’t top at once. Starting to get more short oil through SCO. Spx/wti correlation revealing top this week in both.

    GROUND CONTROL TO MAJOR 4???????? Think we start to see weakness now.Let you know when Spx hits.

  13. Tony, good morning. I have been away for a little while, would you mind catching up to speed?Where are we and where do you think we are going? Thank you.

  14. gauravsuri17 says:

    Tony gold near 1340 is it close to a short term top thanx

  15. jackkendo1987 says:

    “iii /3″ still is progressing?
    Why is iv/3 at 1684 ?
    1684″ is 9 points pull back from 1693, less than the 13 points pull back from 1684 to 1672.

  16. blackjak100 says:

    1.382 extension for Minor 3 hit almost to penny. Lets see if we extend to 1.5.

  17. The story of this bull market – Shorts keep shorting and covering at higher levels to short again at lower levels. Longs keep getting off to get on board at higher levels again. No wonder this is the most hated bull.

    • rc1269 says:

      seems mathematically impossible to me, given rising prices
      if longs really did keep getting out we’d have a flat mkt. IMO

      • That’s called chasing higher. Not everyone is getting in and getting out at the same time. Nothing is in black and white like mathematics when it comes to the market.

      • rc1269 says:

        “Not everyone is getting in and getting out at the same time.”
        aside from primary market activity, if you’ve figured out a way to buy a stock without simultaneously having somebody sell it i’d be really interested to learn how

      • Don’t have the time and energy to engage in never ending conversations. No clue why you ask what you ask?

      • rc1269 says:

        my apologies for wasting your time asking for an explanation on your broad sweeping market comments. i’ll just take it at face value

    • fbender7 says:

      Ted – Appreciate your solid EW perspective and cautionary stance on shorting the market as the SPX approaches 1700. Thanks for sharing your video and best of good fortune to you.

  18. H D says:

    GM all, 1695. amazing actually to think SPX just shy of 1700. No HH on DOW this morn though.

  19. jackkendo1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    You changed the labels by one degree more bullish?
    “3” was at 1684, “4” was at 1672.
    Now “iii /3 at 1693”, “iv/3 at 1684”?
    And looking for “v/3” above 1700?
    Then 9/13 points down for “4”?
    Then “5” to above 1699 pivot?

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