monday update

SHORT TERM: new bull market highs, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower and closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened higher at SPX 1695. Then after a small pullback to SPX 1691 by 10:00, the market moved even higher. Also at 10:00 Existing home sales were reported lower: 5.08mln vs 5.18mln. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1698, and then began to pullback again. By 1:30 the SPX hit 1693, then went into a narrow trading range into a 1696 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude slid $1.20, Gold rallied $37, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow: the FHFA housing index at 9:00.

The market opened above SPX 1693 today, eliminating the second of the three potential short term counts we had posted on Wednesday. Moving us back to just one count: Minor wave 3 underway. This count has been carried on the DOW charts is now also on the SPX charts: Minute i SPX 1627, Minute ii SPX 1615, Minute iii SPX 1693, Minute iv SPX 1684, and Minute v underway.

There are several Fibonacci wave relationships at today’s high, and higher for Minor 3. SPX 1698 Minute v = 0.62 Minute i, SPX 1706 Minute v = Minute i, and at SPX 1713 Minor 3 = 1.618 Minor 1. Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 pivot range and SPX 1713. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence at today’s high. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level SPX 1679. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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165 Responses to monday update

  1. wcagle says:

    Tony…if taper begins in Sept, could that be the high then for this bull market? Or will the market sell off in anticipation…that’s the $1M question?

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Tony, do you think that will be part of Ben’s comments next week, or is he likely to avoid it altogether and just start tapering-at-will, so to speak? M

      • wcagle says:

        Makes sense. How many months/points then do you think Major 5 will be? If I haven’t lost track, then that will be the end of Primary III?

        • tony caldaro says:

          When this uptrend concludes a Major wave 4 correction will follow, and the market should lose about 10% of its value. After that we expect a Major wave 5 uptrend to new highs, concluding Primary wave III. Then after a Primary wave IV correction, a Primary wave V uptrend to new highs should complete the bull market.
          Points? have no considered that yet
          Months? just two

      • wcagle says:

        I’m assuming the 2 month rally off the Major 4 to finish Major 5/Primary III. Have I missed the projection for Primary IV in time in your previous posts? If I have, I apologize in advance.

        Thanks again for being so giving of your time & knowledge. May GOD bless you richly.

  2. moo42 says:

    Tony, quick question – how rare is it to see 2.618 on a 3rd wave?

  3. jobjas says:

    ES / SPX update – likely to top in a day or two . See chart in

  4. jackkendo1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    the overlapping mess.
    the largest pull back 1684 to 1672 be iv/3.
    Possible overlapping ending diagonal for v/3?
    d1: 1672-1684.
    d2: …
    d3: 1684-1697.61
    d4 …
    d5 1693-1698.78 (1699 pivot)

    For this counts, I switched from 300% long SPX to 300% short SPX.

  5. To all of you that have not done this, please do. Go back a read Tony’s post from March of 2009, fascinating to say the least. I did not see too many post from familiar people back then, they must be retired sitting on the beach if they followed Tony. Tony, at what point did you go all in back then? I am just amazed by your work. Thanks

    • tony caldaro says:

      The market rallied 7% in one day, during Ben’s CFR appearance.
      I wasn’t the only one buying.

    • No says:

      Lee still here, well he is retried & sitting on the beach trading futures to kill time

    • Great suggesting and great read!! That crash really awakened my interest in the market. I started putting money into mutual funds and some individual stocks early 2010 each paycheck and saw it nicely appreciate. Then the 2011 crash happened, wiped most of it out, and I started to wonder why. That’s when I found out about EWT. It took me about 6 months after to find Tony’s website and watched and learned each update. I was still mainly bearish until mid 2012, but joined the bull camp so to say (although I now dislike the terms bull and bear since I prefer to be neither and an objective trader instead, just like Tony and y’all!). Ever since it’s been hard to not make money. It’s all about mindset and knowing where you are within the bigger picture. Works like magic: thanks Tony!!!

      So yes, I am really a newbie and a know nothing compared to Tony and many others here I’m sure. But, I -think I am- a quick study and I am determined to learn lots and lots more! Keep it coming guys and gals! This is all AWESOME!!

  6. Tony is it possible wave 3 ended at 1699 and a move down coming ? And is it more or less sure its just wave 3 top and not wave 5 top ?

  7. davidmlamos says:


    Assume we topped at 1699; the low now is 1691. If C = 1.618 x A then 1678ish for minor 4. Correct?

  8. jackkendo1987 says:

    1694, 300% SPX short.
    Took profits of 300% SPX long at 1698, 8 points.

    • lunker1 says:

      Hey JK, imagine what Tonys blog would look like if everyone posted every day trade they made. Doesnt really serve any purpose. Just sayin. Thx bud.

      • jackkendo1987 says:

        lunker, It’s swing trades. I held the 300% since last week. Will hold the short position with stop.
        SPX completed “v” with an ending diagonal at 1698.78 this morning.
        btw, You also posted your trades a few times here.

      • jackkendo1987 says:

        lunker1 says:
        June 18, 2013 at 3:23 pm
        sold more UPRO. now 45% of position left. hoping to sell into a rip up.

        Chung Wang says:
        July 19, 2013 at 1:57 pm
        I am 200% short at 1690.

        mkmason2013 says:
        July 18, 2013 at 11:46 am
        Got 1/3 position uvxy at 44.75. Holding 2/3 trading cash for later. M

  9. joseph3000 says:

    VXX and GDX. They seem like good buys? Anyone?

  10. phil1247 says:

    the DOW daily stochastic is embedded above 80 implying further strength…the upper bollinger band at 15775 should be hit …same situation in spx with 1720 the upper bb

  11. mjtplayer says:

    What a boring market, 3+ weeks of incredibly light volume and low volatility. Reminiscent of many other tops, where the market slowly grinds higher for several weeks then BANG, the market drops and takes back 3+ weeks of gains in 3+ days.

    I’m out of all longs, except gold, but don’t have the guts to short yet. Not till I see minor 3 and 4 completed, I’ll short during minor 5…

  12. mkmason2013 says:

    Minor 4 over and done with in one day, maybe? M

  13. mike7x says:

    Gold is down a little on profit taking after a real nice (short-squeeze?) rally. Has gold bottomed? Maybe. But there’s probably a lot of rally left in any event. $1350? $1500+? If you like gold here’s some really interesting charts to wet your appetite a little:$1,300.html

  14. rdc132 says:

    Good morning. Any thoughts on Gold miners (GDX), is it bottomed? Thanks

  15. rc1269 says:

    ES 1692. is there such a thing as a quadruple bottom..

  16. blackjak100 says:

    Based on the futures, it will be a just another low range low volume small up day. You gotta love the ‘free’ market!

  17. theyenguy says:

    You write LONG TERM: bull market; this is incorrect as it should read market top.

    Any presentation of the S&P 500 should now be presented with a presentation of Gold, as the very basis of wealth is transitioning from fiat to physical.

    Today, Gold, $GOLD, rose so strongly that it drove the US Dollar, $USD, to trade lower at $82.32. Zero Hedge reported over the weekend that Gold breaks above $1300 as shorts cover most in 4 months. Gold, $GOLD, closed higher at its 50 day moving average at $1,334. The Gold ETF, GLD, closed up 3.0% at 128.84. And the Silver ETF, SLV, closed up 4.7% at 19.77.

    Bond vigilantes gained control of the credit market calling the Interest Rate on the Ten Year Note, ^TNX, rising to 2.01% on May 24, 2013, and that this was an “extermination event” which terminated Liberalism, ending both its policy of investment choice and its credit schemes, such as, free trade agreements, financial deregulation, leveraged buyouts, nation investment, currency carry trade investing, securitization of debt, dollarization, financialization of stocks and ETFs, such as corporate bonds which convert into stocks, all of which created capital for corporations to operate and revenue for governments to operate. Debt deflation is underway as currency traders are selling Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, short.

    In the age of Authoritarianism, wealth can only be preserved by investing in and taking possession of gold bullion either in physical form or by trading on an Internet Platform such as Bullion Vault or Gold is Money

    • rdc132 says:

      You are funny 🙂 LOL

    • budfox9450 says:

      While, I understand your extended views – the US stock
      market is not listening. True, the US government is looking
      much like that of the EU countries. And, we may even have
      a King, or Qween in power one day. But – your way off base
      if your trying to make a profit the US stock market, unfortunatley.

  18. ipman1893 says:

    Good morning Tony,
    Quite a day for HSI today, the magic of the positive divergence is kicking in, can we say a new up trend is ongoing right now? that intermediate bottom is seen at 19300. Still possible for wave B top to reach well over 24000?
    It seems China might have found its bottom already as well.

    Thank you, Tony.

  19. $UVXY $NUGT $SPX $SPY market update for monday (within comments section):

  20. Stock Trader says:


  21. 5wavemodel says:

    I am still looking for the SPX to reach 1718. We may see the market pull back from there, but I think after that the market heads to 1776.


  22. I’m thinking minor 3 ends around 1708-1712, which would mean minor 4 could drop to around 1684, which would be approx the same as minor 2. Then minor 5 could go to the 1772 area.

  23. M1 says:

    minor wave 4 at 1640 ? (abt 61.8% fib retrac. from minor wave 2).
    Such a pullback would be ok for you ?
    the 50dma (at 1640) looks like a perfect support for any selloff.

  24. Anyone else noticing the divergence in the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO)?

    • blackjak100 says:

      Yes, I pay attention to the $NYMO quite a bit. Divergences are everywhere, but price continues to rise. They don’t matter until they do.

      • No says:

        me 2, & yes I see -div everywhere as you say, the one thing confirming the ever grinding higher price is VIX- crashing as hard as can be, but I’d expect 12 area to be a good support & a spike (= pullback in spx) to be imminent…

    • Breadth acceleration, which is more or less what is measured by the Mac Osc, is declining, but the Mac is still staying in positive territory and thereby keeping the Summation Index in an uptrend. We would probably have to have a bit of a market decline for the A-D line to become resurgent.

  25. I am happy that minor 3 is continuing to extend but I feel there is a bit of a mystery about the 1685-1672 drop. It was about half again as deep as the 1693-1684 drop but Tony selected the latter for minute wave 4. Was the former minuette wave 4 of minute 3? isn’t it unusual for a higher degree wave to have a lower amplitude than a lower degree one of the same type (wave 4)?
    Thanks for your assiduous efforts on behalf of all of us from blog readers to to tutoring students to subscribers or clients.

    • tony caldaro says:

      We can count seven waves up from 1605 to 1693 with no overlaps.
      The first overlap came on the drop to 1684, overlapping 1685.
      This suggests the first seven waves completed a pattern.
      And the pattern looks to be: i-ii-1-2-3-4-iii-iv

      • Thank you. I didn’t understand the significance of overlaps. I don’t know if that concept is unique to OEW or is a standard Elliott wave principle. I will try a Google search for Elliott overlapping wave. But now the most important thing is to try to evaluate how far minor wave 5 goes.

  26. H D says:

    2013 Full moons #study

  27. Thanks, Tony. Have a nice evening!

  28. Tony

    Let me get this straight.

    There is no possibilities of this being end of wave v as your first count was ? Even if SPX dropped below 1660 or lower?

  29. Tony

    Lets say wave 3 ends around 1700 , is the pullback for wave 4 only 20 points after such a big wave 3 ? Is it not supposed to be bigger the pullback if wave 3 extending this much?

  30. Tony I also guess we can conclude this rally will then likely only end in few weeks (sometimes in August) per your count.

  31. Tony so something like this chart?

  32. bouraq says:

    All else up but dollar. Only chart with some brief commentary.

  33. gokalg says:


    Thanks for your update. Giving fib targets possibilities for minute5 and minor3 are very useful IMO. Minor3 in play can still carry us further and IMHO achieve 1750+ area in August. Trend is still up.

  34. wcagle says:

    Thanks Tony! SPX sure seems to want to tag that 1700 # doesn’t it?

  35. hucky2 says:

    Does todays candle on the daily SPX look like an evening doji star to anyone else?

  36. Tony – a question for you on VIX.

    It looks like VIX is on your charts wave B down – this means after wave B pullback wave C should come higher?

    But it does not fit very well if we still need minor 4 and minor 5 higher in mkts as VIX now getting close to wave b

  37. twosidedtape1 says:

    Thanks Tony

  38. Tony I’m a bit confused. The current rally is only end of wave 3 – then pullback in wave 4 before wave 5 up ? (That means wave 5 could go to 1779)? or am I wrong?

  39. Hi Tony

    What are the probabilities on those wave v targets ? In past many years – some more likely than the others or what is typical?

    Noticed small caps lagging lately going higher with SPX

  40. davidmlamos says:

    Thank you Tony.

  41. torehund says:

    Thanks tony for Your Down to Earth conservative look on the Waves, its up to every one trader to mix into it what they prefer, spice it up like MEXICO, of play it by the safe route. No one in here is in need of beeing routed blindlessly towarrds either losses or gains, amen !

  42. thanks for the update tony. Now is not the time, IMHO, to bank on a minute v of minor 3 for profits… Can’t wait for minor 4 and then ride minor 5. Given that minor 3 has gotten this far does that imply minor 5 to 1769 OEW pivot?

    btw, NFLX getting hammered AH… it was already in the charts. Glad I sold it on Thursday last week.

  43. CB says:

    Thank you, Tony!

Comments are closed.