SHORT TERM: third gap up opening in a row, DOW +114
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were also higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 346K vs 354K, and Personal income (+0.5% vs 0.0%)/spending (+0.3% vs -0.2%), plus PCE prices (+0.1% vs 0.0%) were all reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1611 and continued to rally to 1620 by 10:30. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +6.7% vs +0.3%. Then at 10:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20130627a.htm. Also this AM, NY FED Dudley had this to say: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/dudley-says-qe-may-be-prolonged-if-economy-misses-fed-forecasts.html. The market then pulled back to SPX 1612 by 12:30, bounced to 1618 by 1:30, then pulled back to 1613 to end the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold fell $23, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment right after the market opens. Also there is an 8:00 speech by FED governor Stein at the CFR. This may be interesting.
The market gapped up again today, hit the upper range of the 1614 pivot at SPX 1620, then pulled back for the rest of the day. So far it looks like the third wave up from the downtrend low at SPX 1560 could have ended today at 1620. This would suggest a pullback to the lower end of the 1614 pivot range (1607-1621) for a fourth wave. Then, possibly, a rally into the OEW 1628 pivot range to complete Minor wave 1 of the Intermediate wave v uptrend. The market has already rallied 60 points from the downtrend low. This is the biggest rally since the downtrend began at SPX 1687/1674.
Short term support is at SPX 1593-1599 and the 1576 pivot, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s high then backed off. The short term OEW charts are now positive with the reversal level at SPX 1606. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Have great W. E. all..wishing everyone wonderful 4th..Tony, as always thx for your expert guidance.
LikeLike
mr green…bumpy ride but good call on your short.
LikeLike
wow, wasn’t expecting to close like that
LikeLike
Look at it this way: Monday morn, the bots take 10, puts us to 1595 and it’s over, we can go up again… Best case scenario.
Have a great weekend All! M
LikeLike
3 up then 1 down is normal enough isn’t it?
LikeLike
TF, 970.6 first support then 965,
LikeLike
for a bull close I’m cool w 1611.3 or higher
LikeLike
I am kind of stuck on a visit of 1595, then up for min 5, but I have been wrong before.
LikeLike
well my forks didn’t like that at all. UGLY!
LikeLike
1595 bc it’s the prior 4? that’s a really long minute 4 timewise
LikeLike
long live the C. yuk.
LikeLike
Nor my forks either, to be sure. Ouch! Well, fiona and gary, guess we could take a ride down before up again. M
LikeLike
well all is not lost we landed on the purple median line. chart later. time to go ride the bike and sweat. 😀
LikeLike
Bought some ECTE, like the chart. and 15 mill is cheap for a medical device maker, Shelf and RS tanked it.
LikeLike
Tony,
I realize longer term this sector is in trouble as you have said, but on the weekly chart of the GDX it sure looks like there is a very positive divergence occurring. Am I missing something?
Thanks
LikeLike
Van
It’s there
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p92910409442&a=237829033&listNum=11
LikeLike
well, perhaps a little joy after a lot of suffering! LOL Thx
LikeLike
Not missing anything. Looks like 5 down and pos div on 5th. I wouldn’t go near GDX until it trades above 31.25 impulsively. Worth a shot if you want try to pick bottoms. I would rather buy drops in spx, its larger trend is up, not down.
LikeLike
the problem is I didn’t find Tony’s page until long after buying gold stocks!!! So, now just determining whether I can recover any of the damage… but appreciate all analysis
LikeLike
I agree, but I am not always right!
I wrote below if Tony sees a rebound for Australia, the gold miners doing well should mesh well with that .
Think we are going down to about 1550, and then up.
LikeLike
Thanks for the chart Tony ! A C on the bottom ?
LikeLike
not likely Tor
LikeLike
2 of 5 looks like it’s turning into a flat
LikeLike
talon, I think we’re past that. See Tony’s note below… M
LikeLike
Think this downturn is micro iv, minute 5, major 1, int. v.
LikeLike
where did he say that!
LikeLike
Tony, Int. 5, minute v, micro iii?
tony caldaro says:
June 28, 2013 at 1:56 pm
Int. 5, Minor 1, minute v, micro iii
LikeLike
scroll down a bit more, talon. The micro waves just kill me. Once it goes past minute, and I’ve been out of ofc 2 hours or more…Yikes! M
LikeLike
we’re definately not in micro iv
LikeLike
talon, okay, you still think it’s iii?
LikeLike
Tony said iii not iv.big difference as the iii is just getting going. but this is also why Tony doesn’t sweat the small stuff intraday.
LikeLike
Exactly Lunker. The important levels are 1601 to stay in minute 5 and 1620 to confirm minute 5.
LikeLike
Ok lunker, I believe you. It’s just that what seemed a sizeable decline started after Tony posted micro iii,.. Like I said, I’m not good with anything smaller than Minute. M
LikeLike
the smaller waves often are very messy and Tony is smart not to sweat over them.
LikeLike
M, I think micro 2 ended in an expanded flat and we’re in micro 3 now but as long as 1620 gets broken it really doesn’t matter.
LikeLike
running flat not expanded flat. trying to do too many things at once. 🙂
LikeLike
Can’t help it, talon… When they call me for a meeting, I have to go. Be patient with me. M
LikeLike
M, no worries, I was just thrown by the micro iv. 🙂
LikeLike
Sorry talon, LOL! Just because I gradiated 1st grade tutoring doesn’t mean I know much of anything, yet. M
LikeLike
now what if 1601 was Minute 2?
Minute 1 60pts
Minute 2 = 1601
Minute 3 = 1.62×1 = 1698
Minute 4 = 38% retrace of 3 = 1661
Minute 5 = 1 = 1721
just look at mid/late April
LikeLike
late Apr/Early May
LikeLike
Lunker, thank you. I really appreciate your posting of actual levels with your labels, it really helps me understand what you guys are talking about. LOL
LikeLike
Lunker, What are the probabilities that 1601 was minute 2? Also, thank you for listing levels of the SPX with your labels, it very much helped me vision how this works. Forgive me, I am very green and about to start Tony’s tutoring. Again, thank you.
LikeLike
DCJ no clue on probability for right now but I would have said very little if it didn’t just happened last month but I’m w Tony’s count. If we blast past 1635 (the upper end of the 1628 pivot) then maybe 50/50 and If we get further past 1643 (5 = 1.62 x minute 1 [26]) then I’d say it’s 80% or more.
LikeLike
and congrats on the tutoring!
LikeLike
15min RSI5 Pos D wrt 1618 high yesterday afternoon and 1616 high today
LikeLike
Tony, would you please give us an idea of where you think we might be in this int. v wave?
I’m still in 1st Grade, as another chartist (not this blog) always says, only I haven’t fluncked out of 1st as many times as he has. Much thanks! M
LikeLike
M
Some guys here already know … wave 5
LikeLike
Tony, Int. 5, minute v, micro iii?
LikeLike
Int. 5, Minor 1, minute v, micro iii
LikeLike
Forgot something, Int 5, Minor 1, minute v, micro iii?
LikeLike
Ha, you beat me to it, thanks & have a great weekend
LikeLike
Thanks Tony. I got the int. v, minute 5 correct, the rest was up in the air. Thanks!
LikeLike
Got the Minor 1 correct also, but these micros kill me. I just keep studying … M
LikeLike