SHORT TERM: choppy day on Wall Street, Dow -115
Overnight the Asian markets gained 2.7%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. At 8:30 FED governor Stein’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20130628a.htm. US index futures were higher, then lower overnight, and the market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1613 close. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 51.6 vs 58.7, and Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 84.1 vs 82.7. The SPX traded down to 1601 by 10:00, got slightly oversold, and began to rally. By 11:00 the SPX hit 1616, then pulled back to 1607 by 12:30, before heading back to 1616 2:00. Another pullback followed to SPX 1609 by 3:00, a bounce to 1615, then a pullback to end the week at 1606.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slid 60 cents, Gold rallied $32, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.12 tln vs $3.245 tln. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 55.8% vs 56.2%.
The market started the day on the downside, and within the first half hour registered its biggest pullback since the SPX 1560 low: 1620 – 1601. After that the market quickly rallied to SPX 1616, then went into a trading range for the rest of the day. Despite the choppy day it still appears Minor 1 of Intermediate wave v is underway.
Short term support remains at SPX 1593-1599 and the 1576 pivot, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning, hit neutral, then ended below it. The short term OEW charts swung negative, then positive, then negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1608. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market