thursday update

SHORT TERM: third gap up opening in a row, DOW +114

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were also higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 346K vs 354K, and Personal income (+0.5% vs 0.0%)/spending (+0.3% vs -0.2%), plus PCE prices (+0.1% vs 0.0%) were all reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1611 and continued to rally to 1620 by 10:30. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +6.7% vs +0.3%. Then at 10:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: Also this AM, NY FED Dudley had this to say: The market then pulled back to SPX 1612 by 12:30, bounced to 1618 by 1:30, then pulled back to 1613 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold fell $23, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment right after the market opens. Also there is an 8:00 speech by FED governor Stein at the CFR. This may be interesting.

The market gapped up again today, hit the upper range of the 1614 pivot at SPX 1620, then pulled back for the rest of the day. So far it looks like the third wave up from the downtrend low at SPX 1560 could have ended today at 1620. This would suggest a pullback to the lower end of the 1614 pivot range (1607-1621) for a fourth wave. Then, possibly, a rally into the OEW 1628 pivot range to complete Minor wave 1 of the Intermediate wave v uptrend. The market has already rallied 60 points from the downtrend low. This is the biggest rally since the downtrend began at SPX 1687/1674.

Short term support is at SPX 1593-1599 and the 1576 pivot, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s high then backed off. The short term OEW charts are now positive with the reversal level at SPX 1606. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably bottomed

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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262 Responses to thursday update

  1. greenroger22 says:

    Have great W. E. all..wishing everyone wonderful 4th..Tony, as always thx for your expert guidance.


  2. talon1963 says:

    wow, wasn’t expecting to close like that


  3. gary61b says:

    TF, 970.6 first support then 965,


  4. lunker1 says:

    for a bull close I’m cool w 1611.3 or higher


  5. torehund says:

    Bought some ECTE, like the chart. and 15 mill is cheap for a medical device maker, Shelf and RS tanked it.


  6. vannic99 says:


    I realize longer term this sector is in trouble as you have said, but on the weekly chart of the GDX it sure looks like there is a very positive divergence occurring. Am I missing something?



  7. talon1963 says:

    2 of 5 looks like it’s turning into a flat


  8. lunker1 says:

    now what if 1601 was Minute 2?
    Minute 1 60pts
    Minute 2 = 1601
    Minute 3 = 1.62×1 = 1698
    Minute 4 = 38% retrace of 3 = 1661
    Minute 5 = 1 = 1721

    just look at mid/late April


    • lunker1 says:

      late Apr/Early May


    • Lunker, What are the probabilities that 1601 was minute 2? Also, thank you for listing levels of the SPX with your labels, it very much helped me vision how this works. Forgive me, I am very green and about to start Tony’s tutoring. Again, thank you.


      • lunker1 says:

        DCJ no clue on probability for right now but I would have said very little if it didn’t just happened last month but I’m w Tony’s count. If we blast past 1635 (the upper end of the 1628 pivot) then maybe 50/50 and If we get further past 1643 (5 = 1.62 x minute 1 [26]) then I’d say it’s 80% or more.


      • lunker1 says:

        and congrats on the tutoring!


  9. lunker1 says:

    15min RSI5 Pos D wrt 1618 high yesterday afternoon and 1616 high today


  10. mkmason2013 says:

    Tony, would you please give us an idea of where you think we might be in this int. v wave?

    I’m still in 1st Grade, as another chartist (not this blog) always says, only I haven’t fluncked out of 1st as many times as he has. Much thanks! M


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