SHORT TERM: third gap up opening in a row, DOW +114
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were also higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 346K vs 354K, and Personal income (+0.5% vs 0.0%)/spending (+0.3% vs -0.2%), plus PCE prices (+0.1% vs 0.0%) were all reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1611 and continued to rally to 1620 by 10:30. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +6.7% vs +0.3%. Then at 10:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20130627a.htm. Also this AM, NY FED Dudley had this to say: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/dudley-says-qe-may-be-prolonged-if-economy-misses-fed-forecasts.html. The market then pulled back to SPX 1612 by 12:30, bounced to 1618 by 1:30, then pulled back to 1613 to end the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold fell $23, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment right after the market opens. Also there is an 8:00 speech by FED governor Stein at the CFR. This may be interesting.
The market gapped up again today, hit the upper range of the 1614 pivot at SPX 1620, then pulled back for the rest of the day. So far it looks like the third wave up from the downtrend low at SPX 1560 could have ended today at 1620. This would suggest a pullback to the lower end of the 1614 pivot range (1607-1621) for a fourth wave. Then, possibly, a rally into the OEW 1628 pivot range to complete Minor wave 1 of the Intermediate wave v uptrend. The market has already rallied 60 points from the downtrend low. This is the biggest rally since the downtrend began at SPX 1687/1674.
Short term support is at SPX 1593-1599 and the 1576 pivot, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s high then backed off. The short term OEW charts are now positive with the reversal level at SPX 1606. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market